{"id":6142,"date":"2022-04-28T09:39:38","date_gmt":"2022-04-28T07:39:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-28-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T20:57:42","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T18:57:42","slug":"2022-04-28-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-04-28-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:39<\/h2>\n

Sometimes it becomes a bit of those subjective discussions that don’t have a clear right or wrong and it turns directly into fights and accusations. I sometimes slip into such a question but every time I feel that I would rather stick to the war reporting.
\nUntil the Ukraine war started, all the experts were sitting there being absolutely sure and there was no truth so they could spread out with their explanatory models, then they were completely wrong and it has gone too fast for them to adjust. That doesn’t stop them from taking a break and then coming back and claiming that they always thought so when it starts to become clear but we haven’t quite reached that point yet.
\nNow we have a truth that is very clear and it is one of the few occasions when the large majority can have a consensus and countries pull in the same direction. This will of course end eventually but it shows me that when it really matters the good side is infinitely much stronger than those who want chaos.
\nSomeone really heavily criticized the thread yesterday and it came through quite clearly that he thought one should understand both sides, even the side that rapes five-year-olds and tortures and kills them in front of their mothers before they are released to live with it. (by the way a commonly used method in war, sometimes parents are forced to rape one of their children under threat of killing the other three, children are made to kill their parents, body parts are cut off and quite often the persons survive, all that is maximum evil so I absolutely believe that story is true as it was Kadyrov’s Chechens who are a notch better than animals).
\nWhat I really want to say is that the blog and the thread are a light in the darkness and fun to be part of \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:50<\/h3>\n

There are psyops on steroids right now around NATO, illegal not to have a referendum, we get no security guarantees, inhumane, must be a 2\/3 majority and whatever else they are cooking up.
\nHowever, I get the feeling that this is one of the few occasions our leaders simply don’t care about the criticism and will do what is best for the country, probably because an election is coming soon.
\nFaith and solidarity are quite influential within the Social Democrats and they have risen as one and demand neutrality, for example.
\nI have always thought that we can manage without NATO but have understood that neutrality is an option to do nothing and NATO is binding and if we join we no longer have the choice to play under the table with dictatorships and be the pals who betray in the name of neutrality and the West needs to stand united here because it is not over with Putin’s demilitarization project.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:20<\/h2>\n

We are now about +1 week into the spring offensive?
\nYou remember the February offensive when the Russians took quite a large area but got stuck against fortified cities, they have now lost 60% of their frontline but actually have the same strength advantage as then in places where they carry out their local offensives. The difference is probably that the Ukrainian army is now at war footing and functions exactly as intended.
\n—
\nThe spring offensive has completely stalled everywhere, with enormous losses they take a village here and there, at Popasna they have concentrated forces and if it falls then Ukraine will probably have to retreat a bit and the pro-Russians can triumph for a while but it has zero strategic value. Izyum is one big joke, they have 25 BTGs and as Erik writes reinforcements on the way but it is one big traffic jam and encirclement that at best will get stuck at Kramatorsk or Barvinkove.
\nThere is probably no one who believes the Russians will be able to roll over open fields and survive here and there is open ground south of Izyum.
\n—
\nI know I rarely bring up the dark side but that Ukraine holds its lines is almost incomprehensible. As soon as it gets tough the Russians turn and flee but the Ukrainians die in their trenches Taipale-style. To be the unit, group, platoon, company, battalion that is furthest forward when the Russians concentrate and attack with 5:1 and be prepared to die is something we all wonder if we ourselves would be man\/woman enough to do. I see many pictures\/videos of dead Ukrainians in pro-Russian media and always think that it was a family father just like oneself who lies and rots and is forgotten for a small piece of land in eastern Ukraine. Even a Russian can shoot a Ukrainian and the losses for Ukraine are very high but the will to die to defend their country is clearly very strong here.
\n—
\nI know it is speculation but the sabotage in Russia is for me a sign that that country is shaking and I don’t think Putin has many months left. Many bring up Germany but their offensive war went excellently until late 1942 (roughly), here Putin has wiped out Russia’s army in under two months and that just has to be too big a shock to absorb.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:05<\/h2>\n

Jumping on Lars Celander above, I am completely convinced that the Russians are throwing in everything they have now.
\nThe reason for that is that they must achieve results by May 9, the whip is cracking at all levels and the top leadership aka the bunker dwarf has no control, it is Hitler’s map war in the bunker all over again and the Russians are taking extreme risks now on all fronts.
\n—
\nAs soon as Ukraine breaks through somewhere and a Russian BTG turns and flees there is no real rear defense line to fall back on and Russian combat leadership is very slow. My money is on the Russians at Kherson being denied retreat east of the Dnieper or at least taking seriously heavy losses if they try. At the southern front there are a small number of BTGs, XS133 will be fast as a weasel here as usual \ud83d\ude42 but somewhere around 5 BTGs between Vazylivka \u2013 Zelena Pole and a couple are probably in the fight around Zelena Pole. Ukraine can calmly bring over reinforcements across Zaporozhye, which they have also done according to several sources, and there are some heavy brigades left in reserve but also according to the blogger they are starting to move National Guard brigades eastward. Infantry with assigned armored platoon has worked very well so far so it counts as qualified units, you can dilute the mechanized brigade.
\n—
\nThere will be a breakthrough at the line Vazylivka \u2013 Selena Pole quite soon (week, weeks) and then it can go fast.
\nCrimea will fall before Donbass is my guess and it will be a big symbolic loss for Russia that will be hard to spin reasonably, is Putin going to say that they no longer need Crimea and have decided to retreat to save Ukrainian children’s lives? There are probably plans for the bridge over Kerch. Before the attack Ukraine will infiltrate almost incomprehensible amounts of SOF behind the southern front and at Crimea so that all attempts at delaying battles are swept away with SOF, drones and tracked howitzers.
\n—
\nThe tactically interesting thing about Crimea is that when Ukraine has taken it the Russians can do nothing at all, if they try to take resources from the Vuhledar offensive and go south it will collapse there and then the defenders with severe ADHD in Mariupol will start disturbing in all directions, they have a very hard time sitting still.
\n—
\nNow the frontline in the south will be Mariupol \u2013 Zelene-Pole or Vuhledar, roughly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:24<\/h3>\n

It was informative, he guesses 3000 tanks as a ceiling for how many they could have operational.
\nDid not understand if that included today’s losses or additional ones.
\nI think one must remember that they are outdoors and soft parts endure cold, rain, and heat every year.
\nThen it is certainly not upgraded tanks that remain in storage, every division has taken the money for the upgrades but then let 80% of the tanks rust away.
\nIf they want, they can surely muster up 200,000 more men in mechanized BTGs but those will be older models and only after maybe six months. All the advanced weapons will then be completely depleted so it will be some kind of WWII-type fight against a qualified opponent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:34<\/h3>\n

The world goes into its slumber until it is awakened by a world war, the good side always tries to reason and the evil side lies, bullies, cheats, threatens, and resorts to unlimited violence.
\nThroughout history, however, the dark side has always fallen when the free democracies have united.
\nWe are so damn lucky here that Eastern Europe has wanted peace but prepared for war and that Russia is as corrupt as it is. As usual, it is the UK and USA who go first\u2026
\n\u2014
\nA wild guess is that Russia would take Ukraine and start working further with Southeast Europe which would have joined relatively voluntarily and then try Poland and the Baltics while China kept the USA busy in Asia.
\nNow it is not 1982 when Russia could roll 15,000 T72s across the border and simply drown the defenders in armor but 2022 where they ran an Afghan-style operation and it went as it went.
\n\u2014
\nWhat we should take with us, however, is that Russia, like the rest of Europe has tried to reason with and support, has actively tried to sabotage everywhere in Europe where they had the opportunity and we should build a wall against that shitty country because they have been doing exactly this since 1945 and one could say that sometime it has to be enough. Or they ran the same race already in the 1700s.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:34<\/h4>\n

The only thing is that the overpressure doesn\u2019t come out anywhere and that\u2019s probably perfect \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:25<\/h2>\n

An EU citizen remains silent so this piece of information I only see on pro-Russian forums but I am inclined to believe there is some truth in this. Very early on we discussed whether Poland could fortify the border against Belarus to free up troops for Ukraine to send to the eastern front.
\nA quick glance at the unit map, and before XSI33 objects, there is 1 Ranger Brigade, 2 mechanized brigades, and 1 armored brigade that could be directly freed up for the eastern front and surely 30 National Guard brigades in various constellations, which may not all be qualified units but one should be able to reinforce the eastern front significantly with infantry here and they have proven capable so far. Things are going well for Putin now\u2026
\n\u2014
\n\u201dAccording to the SVR (Russian foreign intelligence agency), Poland is preparing the annexation of western Ukraine under the guise of \u201dhistorical reunification.\u201d Options for the entry of Polish troops into Western Ukraine were openly discussed in Europe back in March, when the United States made it clear that they would not openly participate in such an operation, but would not mind if Poland with a \u201dgroup of countries\u201d occupied Western Ukraine\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:29<\/h3>\n

Wait here before you get too carried away \ud83d\ude42
\nWhat I think is on the way is that some Polish brigades will take over border control against Belarus and that these messages are the usual put-on propaganda from the Russians.
\nWe hear nothing from our side so you have to paste in what is available.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:45<\/h2>\n

Plowing through the interview with Zelensky and it is always the one you don\u2019t expect who takes the lead in difficult times.
\nZ has done everything right, he has shown that he leads from the front in a country where one might have thought the government would do a Putin, he manages contacts with the West excellently and is probably a very appreciated president.
\nIn the beginning, he could not know how it would go and one must assume he was prepared to die for Ukraine.
\nAlso interesting that it was such a well-planned start by Russia, they planned to cut off the head immediately, encircle the entire eastern front and let Belarus take all the cities towards the Polish border so no materiel\/maintenance could reach from the EU.
\nMuch went wrong but the buddy who betrayed was in Belarus which probably helped a lot and Lukas was fantastically eager on national television so the military probably just chose sides there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:06<\/h2>\n

Poland is apparently going to start military exercises May 1.
\nConsidering what we now know \u2013 Ukraine is moving lots of National Guard brigades from western Ukraine and pro-Russian forums are upset that Poland is going to annex western Ukraine, one can damn well hope they take over the northern front against Belarus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:07<\/h3>\n

Poland and Ukraine will have a very good relationship after this war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:07<\/h4>\n

Somewhat incredible that the USA has managed to hold back Poland this long but everything has its time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:09<\/h3>\n

I see it like this, if you are in NATO it becomes harder to stand on the sidelines and watch and claim neutrality or peace in our time.
\nNATO should be a bit careful about who they let in, Turkey and Hungary have been so-so.
\nUkraine has been denied NATO membership for quite a while but after this war they must be in and maybe Hungary should be out.
\nIn all these polar clubs, NATO, UN, EU etc. there is a big weakness, you cannot throw out those who misbehave.
\nThat Russia can block all UN sanctions in the Security Council against themselves is absolute madness, they have tied themselves in knots.
\nThat Hungary gets away with its Putin-loving in the EU is the same thing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:22<\/h3>\n

I remember it because partly he was the one who called for calm days before Russia attacked and criticized Biden for sharp statements and then the entire southern front where the Russians rolled over Kherson around lunchtime the first day and Ukrainian units were in barracks. Now it was the security chief in Mykolaiv behind that and I think Z had good intentions but being an actor who becomes our time\u2019s Churchill is probably not easy.
\nThen two years after the war he is of course voted out like all other great men (or women)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:19<\/h2>\n

Below is filmed by a Ukrainian but is on a Russian psyop account WARNING DEAD UKRAINIANS viewed at your own risk.
\nLW will have to remove it if it is over the line.
\n\u2014
\nWhat I really want to show is how incredibly humane the Ukrainian soldiers are, they take care of the wounded, give first aid and feel strongly for their comrades unlike the Russians who eat dinner a few meters from a pile of dead own soldiers and leave them lying. The image of Ukraine as treacherous Nazis could not be further from the truth.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/8pVYNmaHE1w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:23<\/h2>\n

18:36 \u2013 what Ukraine is doing is that they are retaking terrain up to where it is easily defensible, they had Staryi Saltiv for a while.
\nThis means you can’t be caught by a counterattack southward west of Sievertsky Donets \u2013 east of Kharkov that would cut off the entire Kupiansk offensive.
\nEast of Bazaliivka there is a watercourse with an associated forest belt running east-west just north of the P-07 road which makes it easily defensible to the north when the mechanized brigade advances towards Kupiansk.
\nOn the subject, I guess they are sending down as much as they can to Izyum right now so the mechanized brigade has a pause in fighting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:28<\/h2>\n

Surely the missile strikes are starting to decrease in scale?
\nThe first days it was against targets all over Ukraine, now it is no longer like that.
\nI get the same feeling with the artillery but still quite heavy pressure, more that they have run out of ammunition in some places.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:10<\/h2>\n

Just want to inform that Russian psyops have gone into overdrive on all other forums discussing the Ukraine war, there is no sensible discussion anywhere anymore, the trolls are drowning it out. Probably because of the NATO accession.
\n\u2014
\nLW is probably working hard with the blocks but just want to convey to everyone that right now this comment section is almost alone in having balanced reporting from the war and probably many who read without commenting so good if we keep the level of discussion and continue to convey what is happening in Ukraine so those who want can form a correct understanding of the war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:55<\/h2>\n

This article is well in line with what we discuss in the thread I think, especially SOF and the free war.
\nhttps:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/world\/europe\/2022\/04\/27\/ukraine-special-forces-wreak-havoc-behind-russian-lines\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:57<\/h3>\n

I have thought a lot about this, if it had been Soviet doctrine in 1984 then 4000 tanks and 5000 BMPs would have rolled over the border after an astronomical pre-battle strike in 3 echelons so when the first was finished the next came and so on.
\nThe number of targets would have overloaded the defense and they would have been overrun.
\nSurely they would have reached the English Channel just by momentum so a bit puzzled why the Russians never followed through.
\n\u2014
\nHere they have run Soviet doctrine with too small numbers and after a kleptocracy have really depleted the army so it went so-so.
\n\u2014
\nAs for Sweden, we probably could have held out because they would never have been able to build up the numbers against us.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:39 Sometimes it becomes a bit of those subjective discussions that don’t have a clear right or wrong and it 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