{"id":6146,"date":"2022-04-30T12:11:28","date_gmt":"2022-04-30T10:11:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-30-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T20:58:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T18:58:10","slug":"2022-04-30-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-04-30-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:11<\/h2>\n

Poland has time until May 9 to step in and take over border protection against Belarus.
\n\u2014
\nUkraine is still not at war and there is no problem doing so. Then they will just take an extremely long time to leave, like months. Air defense and dug in up to their chins.
\n\u2014
\nRussia is having a really hard time with this. The USA has a proxy war in Ukraine but they themselves are not at war so there is nothing they can do.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:19<\/h2>\n

12:41 \u2013 there must be extremely high-value targets in Izyum as it is the focus of this offensive with 20 BTG + rumored 20 more BTG reinforcements that were on their way down.
\nThe staffs are then at army level or higher and are now supposed to try to lead from the front, and at the other end the USA is watching everything that happens and linking to Ukraine in such near real-time that they have disrupted several staff meetings and thus have a window of a few hours.
\nI always get the feeling this is a bit like when they searched for terrorist leaders in Afghanistan\/Iraq and waited until everyone had gathered for a secret meeting before dropping something big on them.
\nPro-Russian sites are complaining that there are 50 Americans in Lviv working on exactly this and then Ukraine receives target data in a smooth way.
\nA highly unconfirmed rumor, whether it was here in the thread or elsewhere, was that the CIA reads the Kremlin\u2019s emails and could even show an email they read where the Russian security chief complained that the CIA was reading their emails.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:37<\/h3>\n

This is WW2 all over again, the free democracies come together and prove to be completely superior as usual once they wake up and make up their minds. The reason rogue states get to behave as they want is because the free democracies are democratic and their red line is far away. I don\u2019t want to get into a discussion about this but the leniency with professional criminals is a good example, the only reason they don\u2019t cut down trees in Norrland for life is because we want to be humane and democratic.
\n\u2014
\nPutin\u2019s plan was very smart (just like Trump said, did he know something\u2026), he was going to cut off the head of the snake in the first days and take Kiev, Belarus would go down along Ukraine\u2019s western border and deny them help from the West and the entire army east of the Dnipro would be encircled. For that he planned to go west from Odessa and take weak states and at least Hungary would have declared itself a vassal of Russia immediately.
\nGermany, France and a few others mostly waited for Ukraine to give up so it would return to normal and after about half a year everyone would have forgotten Ukraine as it was quietly ethnically cleansed and mass murdered.
\n\u2014
\nThat didn\u2019t happen because the USA, together with a couple of other Western countries, countered this nicely since 2014 and since then the Russians have made every mistake possible, even running an Afghan and only having their army on paper and a central command that makes Hitler\u2019s map war in the bunker look really professional.
\n\u2014
\nI have quite a few thoughts about China and that they are not as overbearing as we think but that is a discussion for later as it is a bit heated now and China is on the wrong side for the time being.
\n\u2014
\nOne must, as usual, thank the USA and UK for saving the free world and there is probably a chance that Germany is just a bit late to start and does not want to end up on the wrong side of history again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:16<\/h3>\n

Yes Goeran63, the Russians have really messed things up here and are a step behind. Until the first shot was fired they controlled the narrative. A general has probably said that all planning goes out the window when the first shot is fired and never has that been truer than in this war. The Russians\u2019 PR campaigns and war planning become obsolete even before they start. When Lavrov went to the UN to complain about Bucha and then the satellite images came out it was quite epic.
\nThe opening as I see it is that Russia has officially stated that Western Ukraine is no longer relevant for conquest and since it is not a war (yet) because the Russians have not declared war anyone can, at Zelensky\u2019s invitation, roll in for a military exercise west of the Dnipro. Belarus is keeping calm and probably has Western guarantees.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:56<\/h2>\n

13:36 \u2013 from military service you were supposed to learn to distinguish direction and sound of armored vehicles when lying pressed down in a ditch or trench until they were within shooting range. Then pop up and with a nice shot from an RPG or anti-tank weapon decide the war. Ditch was less fun than trench because you lay in mud and it was probably at that time when everyone thought all Russian tanks have IR or whatever it\u2019s called so they found one by its heat signature. I think the first 122 were tested when I was in the military service, could have been 121, and it was damn important not to stick your head up because they saw you immediately.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:08<\/h2>\n

By now, probably all BTGs intended for the spring offensive have seen combat for over a week.
\nThe phone call seemed to be from a DPR soldier because he talked about “the others” who seemed to be the Russians and DPR and LPR must be extremely exhausted now, they have had to go first since the start of the war. I think there will be widespread refusal to obey orders from now on while commanders at all levels have enormous pressure to achieve results, it is set up for internal conflicts because even a Russian is probably not so eager to die for nothing.
\n\u2014
\nThe Izyum offensive has been going on for at least 2.5 weeks, the spring offensive just under two and the air seems to have completely gone out?
\nBefore May 9 no commander with any self-respect dares to dig in but after that the front will probably be frozen and the positions where they lie held. When that order goes out even a Russian can dig a hole in a few days.
\n\u2014
\nSo it is important that Ukraine takes the opportunity where they can shortly after May 9 or earlier if the opportunity arises. Where they do not manage to get the Russians to retreat, they have to go the long way with SOF, smart artillery and slowly work forward at night and defend during the day with air defense but it will take time and if the Russian switches to defense he can even do something right and start preparing rear defense and bring up reserves to man the trenches.
\n\u2014
\nWe will see but so far Ukraine has been almost divine in seizing the opportunity on the fly and such an opportunity is coming quite soon and right now there is no deep defense even if someone posted that reinforcements are coming up from Crimea who can probably also go on defense.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:26<\/h2>\n

The joker in the deck here is how much the Russians manage to muster NOW beyond these 80-90 BTG consistent sources seem to assess are in the combat zones. The indication is probably nothing but we really don’t know.
\nWhat can be grasped in 3-6 months is too late to save Donbass and Crimea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:57<\/h2>\n

The next general to bite the dust.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/antiputler_news\/status\/1520452460489416704?s=20&t=rWp3kI0CJ3MBpfxfmRW4PA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:03<\/h2>\n

I hope you take the time to read the link because it is probably today’s absolute best news.
\nSomeone hoped for a Hitler today, we got this \ud83d\ude42
\nhttps:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-10770541\/Putin-cancer-operation-near-future-hand-power-hardline-ex-KGB-chief.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:53<\/h3>\n

I was third on that wound now, got a bit eager and didn\u2019t read the latest post<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:54<\/h3>\n

This tells us that the USA sees absolutely everything. There will hardly be a senior officer left at the front in a week.
\nAs many have pointed out, the first shell hit right in the middle so it must have been smart ammunition?
\nWith a bit of luck, there was also a larger staff meeting at Izyum where battalion commanders were removed, there were probably several vehicles.
\nOr like this, Ukraine with the USA’s help seems to have such good control that they wait for larger staff meetings before they strike.
\nNow within a week we have knocked out combat command at Kherson, Izyum, and Kreminna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:11 Poland has time until May 9 to step in and take over border protection against Belarus. \u2014 Ukraine is 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