{"id":6191,"date":"2022-05-04T07:41:12","date_gmt":"2022-05-04T05:41:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-05-04-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T13:06:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T11:06:28","slug":"2022-05-04-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-05-04-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-05-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

08:53<\/h2>\n

New low point from Russia, one almost thought that “Jews are Nazis” would win that prize but now Ukraine is accused of black magic.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1521727524069416962?s=20&t=l_O8Npz9NSjde637cPDIaA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:53<\/h2>\n

New low point from Russia, one almost thought that \u201cjxxxr are naxxxxer\u201d would win that prize but now Ukraine is accused of black magic.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1521727524069416962?s=20&t=l_O8Npz9NSjde637cPDIaA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:58<\/h2>\n

The order of battle map LW links to is very exciting and, I believe, accurate because it is so insanely difficult to piece together the Russians’ BTGs on the other maps.
\n-93 BTGs for the Russians
\n-27 heavy maneuver brigades at the front lines for Ukraine so around 108 BTGs in total. (I consider that quite a few brigades have an extra battalion but not all). Armor, motorized, mech, mountain, airborne.
\n-not counting several National Guard brigades and territorial defense and national battalions defending cities on the front line and also certain front sections.
\n\u2013 add to that 10 mech\/armor\/airborne\/j\u00e4ger\/marine brigades that protect the northern front, down by Odessa or are in reserve, I think 6 of them can be counted as reserve \u2013 uncertain, I know.
\n\u2014
\nAt Kherson there are 5 Ukrainian brigades (I want to believe 6) x 4 so a total of 24 BTGs and against that the Russians have a pathetic 7 BTGs. It can only go one way, 3:1. There are also 4 maneuver brigades in reserve at Odessa, Mykolaiv and one further south.
\n\u2014
\nI had Zaporozhye at 11 BTGs but it is 13 BTGs, it stood at 6 BTGs down at Mariupol for quite a while and now reports that some BTGs have been moved over to Popasna. They are pressing mainly at Zelena Pole and Vuhledar so exactly where the 59th Mechanized, the artillery brigade and 3 national battalions stand at Vasylivka \u2013 Olikhiv is a weak point. Also the free war on steroids behind the southern front so they probably have to allocate some to protect the little supply they have left I guess.
\nConsidering the strength advantage at Kherson and that there are reserves, I am convinced that there is a newly equipped brigade with night fighting capability up at Zaporozhye that can reinforce the 59th Mechanized but that is just my guess.
\n\u2014
\nWhat you must take away from the map is the following \u2013 north of Izyum \u2013 Severodonetsk there are 46 BTGs (I guessed 50) and they cannot reinforce any other front and at Kherson there are 7 BTGs who just haven’t realized they are dead yet.
\nThere are thus a pathetic 40 BTGs left to defend the southern front, Donbass and Crimea (also the Donbass rebels but they are pretty worn out as they have been first since day 1).
\n\u2014
\nOf the 40 at the southern front \u2013 Donbas is pressing very hard against Popasna, at least 6 BTGs and reinforcements on the way.
\n\u2014
\nAddition is that we in the thread believe that a not insignificant number of these Russian BTGs have suffered heavy losses and are not at full strength, in some cases knocked out or low combat value. Ukraine’s maneuver brigades are replenished with reserves over time (and I base that on the fact that they did so during WW2 in all the films I’ve seen\u2026), they might be a bit weak on armor here and there but manage well with what they have and have largely maintained combat value. Russian BTGs at Kherson and Izyum certainly have a shortage of battalion commanders now \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nThe weak points are at Kherson and south of Zaporozhye. From there they will take Crimea fairly quickly and roll up Donbass from the south.
\n\u2014
\nThere is nothing on that map that speaks in Russia’s favor and now we absolutely see the first phase of the Iraq war playing out here. What comes first, collapse at Kherson, Melitopol or wild flight from Izyum is probably mostly chance because it looks equally dangerous everywhere for the Russians.
\n\u2014
\nWhat the US has done is ensured that Ukraine conserves its maneuver brigades so that when the Russians have retreated across the border there is an intact army to occupy the entire border and deny the Russians re-entry in a third round after 3-6 months if they should think of it. Ukraine is somewhat incredible in their warfare here, patience like the worst Buddhist monks despite enormous provocations and weighs loss against gain every time. As soon as an opening comes they are there hacking at it and put no prestige at all in making tactical retreats because then they are back like weasels at night again and retake everything the Russians just conquered at great losses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:26<\/h2>\n

After going through the blog’s excellent lineup of Russian and Ukrainian units at the front lines, I actually start to wonder if Poland even needs to enter and occupy the northern border against Belarus?
\nEven if they did, Ukraine would have had to handle all the fighting and as it looks now they manage this brilliantly entirely on their own.
\nThe Russian spring offensive is basically over and now Ukraine is starting the pre-battle and official statements are somewhat confident of victory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:30<\/h3>\n

In the beginning it was said that the Russians had their communication via radio masts and during the first weeks of the war they shot down all radio masts in Ukraine. We heard that they called each other on the phone or had unencrypted radio communication and the big staff meetings that Ukraine shot down indicate that they almost only can convey orders on paper to each other and must be seen in person.
\n\u2014
\nStarlink seems to have solved Ukraine’s communication but they also have radio communication down to the group level I have seen so normally functioning western communication basically. Then they have access to all US signals intelligence and eyes from above which, if you ask me, saw what cigarette brand Gerasimov smoked when he looked up at the incoming artillery shell. It is rumored that they have given Ukraine access to everything and then set up an analysis unit in Lviv that basically in real time gives Ukraine targeting data.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:43<\/h3>\n

What the Russian commander has missed is that the artillery brigades around Kherson have guided ammunition so instead of the old favorite “wipe out a kilometer square” the only thing that will explode in Kherson are Russian targets. At best you get to repaint some facades.
\n\u2014
\nHave thought a lot about the bridges over the Dnieper here MRF for Ukraine can cut them if they want. Maybe they want to keep them to be able to roll over the Dnieper with the dozen maneuver brigades that are in the area?
\nAgainst that speaks that they can roll over the Dnieper up at Zaporozhye just as well.
\nI actually have no idea to be honest, the only thing that seems crystal clear is that these 7 BTGs are very badly positioned with a river at their back \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nAddition here is that the figure 25,000 has circulated so it can be Rosgvardia, logistics, rear, artillery and all sorts of other things because Kherson is a staging area for an offensive against Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv and they have certainly loaded up heavily with rear for continued offensive in the area.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:12<\/h3>\n

It’s time, I have always considered that we manage with a strong defense but the problem is that neutrality has opened the door to disarm the defense since we are supposed to meet a Russian invasion with flowers and hand hearts.
\nNATO denies the peace activists the possibility to give Sweden to Russia without a fight and the free world is not safe due to Russia’s crushing defeat, if the West stands strong going forward the thug dictatorships will keep in line, if not this will repeat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:15<\/h3>\n

Yes, someone wrote in the comments that the Russians only have one strategy \u2013 increase the amount of violence.
\nNow they are almost doing it to the point of going to zero here, any command would have thrown in the towel if they saw the unit map the blog posted this morning but I understand that Putin receives filtered information, that the top-down control is total and the whip is constantly cracking. In reality, this is perfect in every way because it becomes easier for Ukraine to reclaim its land when the Russians kill themselves entirely on their own.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:21<\/h2>\n

I don’t think any Russian commander at the front will dare go on the defensive before May 9. They will continue to push and apparently Popasna is the focus now but the offensive as such is over in the sense that the only thing they can do is bleed out their units, they achieve absolutely nothing. Ukraine knows this and can hold the front and think about step two, their own offensive which will come at an appropriate time. I wonder if May 9 is a date when the Russians simply stop and pop the bottles, maybe at 01:00 on May 10?
\n\u2014
\nOf these 93 BTGs, a very large number will be in poor condition by May 9. At Izyum they will have been in combat for 4 weeks and on other front sections for 3 weeks. Some BTGs are probably almost unfit for defense and struggling with low morale bordering on mutiny in some places, one can guess. The Russians’ elite units VDV, reconnaissance and Spetsnaz are nearly extinct and the guards armor probably exists only on paper.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:24<\/h3>\n

Yep, I also think that\u2019s what we will hear \ud83d\ude42
\nThe supplies have now been inventoried and they know there are no tanks with engines and sights intact and the recruitment offices are empty except for the recruiter and this information is at the highest staff level since they have pushed the divisions to reinforce for the spring offensive but it didn\u2019t work. If the army has the slightest self-preservation instinct, they must have told Putin that the only possibility is to try to freeze the conflict on May 9.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:24<\/h3>\n

I think that\u2019s true because many prisoner exchanges come back with broken or amputated legs.
\nThis is completely madness but common in third-world wars, we have just gotten used to the West\u2019s humane warfare and have convinced ourselves that the Russians were not absolute monsters (except LW who has had full integrity).
\nI bet a thousand that most of the prisoners of war we have seen in videos where they swear how shitty Ukraine is and that they fled will not come back alive.
\nThe fact is that now that the Russians are losing, the violence will increase exponentially against those who remain, prisoners and civilians in occupied areas because they have to take out their frustration on something.
\nThis is completely incomprehensible\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:44<\/h3>\n

I was just about to post something hoping that Ukraine wins in a gentlemanly manner here and gets a clean win.
\nIt\u2019s easy to forget things like this\u2026
\nIn reality, every Russian soldier on Ukrainian soil deserves a shot in the neck after a court-martial and the discussion that there are also decent Russians among the soldiers should almost rightly drown in things like this, the world is not fair and everyone had a choice not to go to Ukraine no matter how difficult that choice was.
\nWhat I never forget is the story of the bound mother who had to watch her five-year-old daughter raped, tortured and murdered and then they released the mother. It is incomprehensible cruelty and one example among thousands.
\nThe murderers from Bucha looked really friendly in pictures but now we have seen a video of the one who was from Asia where he slaps a private.
\nAt the very least, all prisoners of war should be held in custody until it is investigated whether the unit was present for abuses and then the laws of war should be applied for the trial with the death penalty but maybe they have to exchange the Ukrainian prisoners who might still be alive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:35<\/h3>\n

If the Russians attack Finland, Ukraine will appear as a big victory for the Russians in comparison but it\u2019s sad that the Finns will have to live with war anxiety now. I honestly can\u2019t imagine a more restrained country than Finland here, every word is weighed on a gold scale in order not to provoke the loose cannons in the Kremlin.
\nOn the positive side, the rifle brigade in Petsamo is scattered over the potato fields in eastern Ukraine and the 76th Airborne Division in Pskov is 90% knocked out or whatever it was.
\nIf the Russians start flooding Finland with rockets\/missiles, they have completely lost it but there is a risk that it will be seen as opening a second front to save the chaos in Ukraine and Finland is not in NATO\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:42<\/h3>\n

I have a certain ability for positive thinking and feel compelled to respond \ud83d\ude42
\nNo, on the ground the ball is rolling and we are not overestimating Russia\u2019s humiliation here is my opinion, I have been calculating this for weeks and it can only go towards a Ukrainian victory quite soon and if the Russians want a round 3 in 3-6 months, they will have to try because then Ukraine will knock out the buildup and preparation on Russian territory this time.
\nYes, they have rockets and cruise missiles but are actually shooting a lot from ships now and using strategic bombers so somewhere it\u2019s running out.
\nOf course, they can resort to ABC and all the rockets\/missiles they have but you don\u2019t win wars with that.
\nAt some point Ukraine will have something, maybe HIMARS, that can start hitting deep against launch ramps for these weapons but we are not there yet so right now you have to do the next best thing, knock out depots, factories, fuel and command centers and everything that makes them run out of this faster.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:46<\/h3>\n

There has been discussion that he is a psyops and I don\u2019t believe this message.
\nThere is an interest from Russia to try to get a victory here but as recently as yesterday there was a picture of a patrol operating outside the bunkers so they are still moving above ground.
\nA first step when they can is to blow up the bunker entrances, clearing the bunker complex itself they can forget, remember the tunnel rats in Vietnam and those were hand-dug tunnels.
\nThen there is probably an emergency exit that is unknown.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:03<\/h2>\n

It is a claim from pro-Russian sources that the USA wants to bleed Russia dry and uses Ukrainian lives for that job who die by the thousands, proxy war and all that.
\n\u2014
\nMy take on this is that the USA has had to hold back Ukraine on the strongest leash available and they have managed Ukrainian soldiers\u2019 lives as if they were American. It is so balanced that one can only admire Ukraine\u2019s warfare so far.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:16<\/h2>\n

The Russians who dare to go down into the tunnels in Azovstal will not come up again is my bet.
\nBlowing up entrances is unfortunately second best after knife fighting in the dark.
\nAt the top of my wish list is that 2000 defenders of Azovstal come up voluntarily when Ukraine has cleared Mariupol of Russians.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:55<\/h2>\n

Liveuamap \u2013 weakening the southern front as we have said.
\n\u201dRussia\u2019s 12 battalion tactical groups near Mariupol, the majority of which have left the city, are paused mostly to refit as they move toward Donbas: senior U.S. defense official\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:01<\/h2>\n

What is the verdict on Gerasimov, was he really sitting there looking sour at the general staff meeting after such an ordeal in Izyum.
\nI\u2019ll believe it when I see him at the parade on May 9 but Shoigu did show up again after having died twice and then having a heart attack, so stranger things have happened.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:32<\/h3>\n

They blow up the tunnel entrances to trap the defenders inside and Ukraine has some backdoor that no one knows about.
\nTrying to “storm” as they apparently did today is probably the worst idea in world history.
\nI picture something like one of those horror movies where the killer turns off the lights and runs around with night vision goggles and a machete chasing the poor victims.
\nIf I may guess, the Russians probably withdrew pretty quickly, hand grenades in enclosed spaces cause great damage and as you say, they probably mine their way back. To advance, you basically have to move across an area where someone is 30m away behind a corner shooting at everything that moves, etc. endlessly, it never ends.
\nMuch easier to blow up the tunnel entrances and think you\u2019ve won until Azov shows up somewhere completely different and everything starts over again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

08:53 New low point from Russia, one almost thought that “Jews are Nazis” would win that prize but now Ukraine 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