{"id":6193,"date":"2022-05-05T09:20:18","date_gmt":"2022-05-05T07:20:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-05-05-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T13:07:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T11:07:48","slug":"2022-05-05-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-05-05-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-05-05"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>09:44<\/h2>\n<p>I think it is important to keep in mind here that when we get reports that the Russians are planning attacks here or there and are worried about whether Ukraine can defend itself, it is somewhat simplified in that the Russians throw everything they have and are prepared to go to zero, while Ukraine values every life. Without in any way diminishing Ukraine&#8217;s effort here, these Russian attacks are almost not to be counted as such and make Tannenberg appear as a victory for the Russians.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIt is probably in this light that we should view the reports, most recently this morning the Russians are supposed to be preparing for an attack into the Mykolaiv region. They have 7 battered BTGs against Ukraine&#8217;s 24 BTGs or something like that, and even we can figure out how that will end.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThis is probably a consequence of the fact that this is actually what the highest Russian combat leadership declares from their map war and then the commanders in the field get to do some preliminary fighting and order forward with what they have. It has been like this for quite a while now, I think. They thunder into the foremost Ukrainian defense line and already there it stops, and behind these there is defense in depth and finally a whole armored brigade standing by in case of a breakthrough, roughly.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nUkraine is in no hurry with counterattacks, they push back where there is an opening, as now up around Kharkiv, and there the Russian units in defense are being wiped out, so they can&#8217;t even manage that, evidently.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>09:45<\/h2>\n<p>It seems like Ukraine is working around Kherson, the provincial border at Mykolaiv-Kherson runs quite close to the city of Kherson.<br \/>\n\u201cAn operational report as of 6:00 on May 5 says that thanks to successful efforts of the Ukrainian defenders, the enemy lost control over several settlements on the border of the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions,\u201d the update reads.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:45<\/h2>\n<p>Now onto the subject of wild speculation, the closer we get to May 9, the more exciting it becomes to try to read the tea leaves. I want to be clear that regardless of the outcome below, Ukraine will retake Donbass and Crimea and park its standing half-million army (a bunch of National Guard brigades are probably good enough to count as maneuver brigades now) along the country&#8217;s borders and have a 30 km demilitarized corridor that they maintain with long-range artillery (or similar\u2026)<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThe military leadership knows that the first offensive failed and they promised Putin a successful round two, take Donbass and Luhansk Oblast and Mykolaiv Oblast was the revised plan to restore Russian greatness and give Putin his place in the history books. Kharkiv was also included but that is too embarrassing to count.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThey worked like beasts to drum up enough and got (according to many different sources) about 20,000 \u2013 30,000 reserves and now the recruitment offices are at best empty except for a bored recruiter playing Tetris, otherwise burned down. They ran tanks on trains all the way from Vladivostok and the stockpile of 9,000 tanks turned out to be around 2,000 that looked decent (according to many sources). The reports have now been that they have lost around 30% of the tanks and would have 2,000 left but we also hear about division commanders who have committed suicide when they realized that 90% of the stored tanks were little more than empty shells. Partly it is cold, heat and rats that work their way through all the rubber and soft parts over time, and severe rust. Then you can guess that everyone at all levels saw these stored tanks as a chance for extra income, the sights, engines, valuable metals have simply been taken out and sold.<br \/>\nYour guess is as good as mine but I don&#8217;t think there are any 2,000 tanks left and the ones they will manage to get running are not modified models of older manufacturing years with a barrel and sight that you can shoot with.<br \/>\nProbably it doesn&#8217;t look much better for the armored vehicles. If they want, they might be able to equip something similar to what they mobilized in February but then they need 3-6 months partly for the personnel but also service to get the armor rolling, the number of service workshops is probably a bottleneck.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThe highest military leadership knows this and this information has reached Putin, Gerasimov (if he is still alive..) and Shoigu. Izyum was then the point where the Russians pushed in the most BTGs for a win and Gerasimov has now seen the traffic jam on site and also that Ukraine has good insight into their movements and that it is hard to sit still on a chair if you have been at the front (the staffs are apparently moved all the time according to some source).<br \/>\nThey also know very well that they have not achieved a single attack objective during the spring offensive and they know the condition of their BTGs, otherwise they would not have sent Gerasimov to lead from the front. They also know how many generals, colonels, majors and captains have been killed. They also know that entire units have refused to advance and have sat down on their weapons.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThey are painfully aware of the West&#8217;s arms deliveries and are now trying in panic to hit all targets they can to disrupt them, railways, choke points, depots, etc. and they also know that it fails and that much has been deployed.<br \/>\nThey know that their poker bet on red has failed in rounds 1 and 2.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThey have a map in front of them with destroyed depots inside Russia and around Belgorod there have been so many explosions that they had to declare a state of emergency.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nMay 9\u2026 With all the above in mind, Putin must now try to find a way forward and put lipstick on the pig, he must get the country, the military and all the oligarchs on board. He and his oligarchs have probably thought they wouldn&#8217;t have to dangle from a gas station anytime soon (Mussolini reference by the way \ud83d\ude42 ). Either he does a Russian and uses more violence and hopes for the best or he tries to wiggle out by declaring victory, thanks for a heroic effort, Ukraine is on its knees and we have saved Donbass and Crimea from the nazzzzzism. Here he must try to freeze the conflict and there will be an enormous psyops campaign so that Ukraine does not retake Donbass and Crimea, which of course they will just to spite. It is an open question what he will choose but I bet my money on him trying to freeze and de-escalate because otherwise it really is Hitler&#8217;s map war in the bunker but stranger things have happened in this war.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIf Putin chooses war, the question passes to the military leadership \u2013 do you want to get the sitting problem like Gerasimov and really lose everything or should you seize the opportunity in flight and use the 10,000 soldiers who will parade Red Square in four days and hand out some live ammunition. The number of murdered oligarchs and the number of dead generals suggests that there should be some measure of concern in broad ranks here that if you go for a round three it will just be more of the same and then maybe it will be my turn to either follow a Ukrainian guided artillery shell with my gaze the last seconds of my life or commit suicide together with my family anywhere in the world.<br \/>\nNow the Russian sickness is quite advanced over many years and things like this usually need a really strong triggering factor but the Ukraine war is not insignificant if you belong to the army or sanctioned oligarchs who do not dare to take a free drink with Putin. Since Putin has not spared the elite units, probably any senior officer within Spetsnaz, VDV, Marine Infantry and Recon is furious that their life\u2019s work is 90% blown away and above all humiliated in broad daylight, even rocketman is twisting with laughter right now.<br \/>\nThe navy is surely pissed off over the sinking of the Moskva. etc. etc. in quite a few ranks here down to the poor sellers of Russian weapons who will not get any commission at all when every country has taken back their orders and placed one on Nlaw and Neptune instead.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIf the cowardly officer corps chickens out, the question passes to the soldiers on the ground in Ukraine, they have been promised a victory on May 9 and that the nazzies will be exterminated then. They have taken enormous losses and the will to die must be absolutely zero right now in almost every BTG after 3-4 weeks of combat contact with real WW2-style storming attempts towards the end.<br \/>\nI will take that in another post but several regiments have refused to advance. They can do little more than refuse to advance and shoot their officers. They can also capitulate en masse to Ukraine and ask for asylum, I don&#8217;t know how heavy the propaganda has been that Ukraine takes no prisoners but surely horrible stories have spread. There will be no Russian revolution but there will be an end to the war in Ukraine when there are no soldiers left to fight with.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nRound 3 if we now against all odds get there, before the Russians have managed to mobilize something like the February buildup, 3-6 months will have passed according to several sources and then Ukraine&#8217;s maneuver brigades stand along the border and can maintain a 30 km demilitarized zone by simply blowing away everything that comes within it. Then those who survive shall run straight into a Ukrainian concrete wall without artillery but maybe they can send off some missiles and some brave attack aircraft doing a kamikaze. Now the military leadership is not stupid and of course knows this, Ukraine&#8217;s army is now unbeatable but maybe they hope for a miracle. It can be imagined that in panic they try something ABC but it does not change the course here, just that Russia becomes an even worse pariah.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIt is thus only a matter of time how quickly the Russian fighting spirit fades, the war in Ukraine is lost regardless of the outcomes above. The population was probably hoped for but I get the feeling that the great mass has not yet started to move and support for a Greater Russia seems to be quite large. The deprogramming will take a long time.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nMay 9, 2022 will probably be read about by future generations in history books whether it becomes all-out war or the parade at a given signal spreads out into the government quarters and pushes Gerasimov really hard into his chair as revenge \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:52<\/h3>\n<p>Yes, they will be driven out of Donbass and Crimea before the summer is over, but right now an attempt at a frozen conflict is one of the few options he has on the table to choose from.<br \/>\nThis pig is completely impossible to put a good face on, there are at least four different groups to consider: Putin&#8217;s circle of friends, oligarchs in general, the army, and the Russian people.<br \/>\nPutin&#8217;s circle of friends are the ones who fall with Putin, but the oligarchs and the army are currently in something they know they cannot win.<br \/>\nIf it is true that 90% of the VDV is gone, and it is a very proud branch of the military, then the talk after a couple of glasses of vodka at the officers&#8217; mess is probably about the best way to kill Putin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>13:09<\/h2>\n<p>12:13 \u2013 every brigade with a bit of self-respect is now releasing well-directed combat footage with the latest music, I think the Vikings soundtrack would fit well. This kind of thing really makes your day \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nTook a look at the Twitter user and found this, it\u2019s homing\/GRS guided ammunition against trenches and in the last seconds they wait until the soldiers take cover in the reinforced space and hit right in the middle. This is how it will look along the entire front very soon and it only takes hours to make a big hole if you have a battery with the right ammunition. Compare that with the Russians\u2019 videos of moon craters around a Ukrainian trench where after the fight they stand smoking a cigarette and wave to the drone.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Blue_Sauron\/status\/1522153648628842496?cxt=HHwWgICygbir458qAAAA\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Blue_Sauron\/status\/1522153648628842496?cxt=HHwWgICygbir458qAAAA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>13:41<\/h3>\n<p>So it started earlier than all the well-paid full-time experts\u2019 models predicted, Ukraine was supposed to prepare for months \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nIn concept, it should include a hell of a lot of pre-fighting and then a well-balanced counteroffensive on different front sections, but since Ukraine themselves have confirmed that offensive operations are underway, we might as well ring the bell for Iraq War 2.0 and the blog was right again.<br \/>\nThey are probably increasing pressure gradually along the entire front but starting where they can make progress.<br \/>\nSomewhat amazingly fun that Ukraine is starting already before May 9, I didn\u2019t really expect that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>13:56<\/h3>\n<p>Yes, there is enough to suggest that it could become a total anticlimax, they try to keep everything under wraps and then declare that the entire special operation was one big fake\/maskirovka where the real goal was to draw NATO away from Vladivostok and Petsamo and that they have now achieved the real but much more secret goals, the nation\u2019s future is secured thanks to the chess genius and horse rider Putin. Why not?<br \/>\nI have probably moved away from escalation but I think it\u2019s a bit too early for the military leadership to have understood that defense is not an option here either and that they will try it, who knows\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>14:12<\/h2>\n<p>Got really pumped by Staffan\u2019s message that Ukraine feels strong enough to announce that a counteroffensive is underway and moreover at Izyum, where the Russians have concentrated the most. The chaos down there must be absolutely monumental. You remember the 25th Airborne and 93rd Mechanized who have been lurking in the forest area on the western flank of the Izyum offensive and who probably want a shot at a Russian before it\u2019s all over.<br \/>\nThe 46th Air Assault brigade is also in reserve at Poltava and the 58th Motorized under Sumy + the two mech brigades around Kharkov but the Kharkov area is to be cleared as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>14:18<\/h3>\n<p>Sorry if it got a bit carried away but on my list of possible outcomes there is a violent takeover on May 9 where they use the 10,000 soldiers for the parade to take over the Kremlin, the balcony on Red Square and whatever else there is. It\u2019s not easy to bring forward an assault force covertly so an opportunity like this won\u2019t come again until May 9, 2023.<br \/>\nThen Ukraine blows up something big, banners on the houses or running out of fuel on an Armata as usual.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>14:49<\/h3>\n<p>Like most others \u2013 conscript in the 90s where the Russians were the threat and remember parents\u2019 worry when there were alerts from depth charge barrages at any bay in the archipelago on TV. Spent a couple of years on the clock with submarine violations where I managed to prove that U137 could not have navigated wrong, which no one was interested in at the time since the coolest theory was that everything was NATO submarines when Jallai\u2019s books came out, sat and argued by email with him for a good while while he got rich \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>15:56<\/h3>\n<p>That is a very important post Arvid22 which I hope doesn\u2019t get lost in the noise now because that is exactly why Ukraine must strike as soon as the Russians stop and before they get general orders to switch to defense.<br \/>\nIt\u2019s still possible but becomes infinitely much harder.<br \/>\nFor example, Crimea must simply be overrun at the same time as the southern front collapses, not wait until the Russians have calmly retreated and dug in.<br \/>\nThat was why my assessment of the timing for the Ukrainian counteroffensive was around May 9 when the Russians stop.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>16:13<\/h2>\n<p>Here you have the whole Kraken film which was split up on Twitter (maybe already posted, sorry if so) with a few more minutes, have watched it three times \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/streamable.com\/uzxxsr\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/streamable.com\/uzxxsr<\/a><br \/>\nThe coolest thing here is that right now there are 26 other brigades scrolling through the YouTube feed and\u2026 what the hell is this, some little crappy unit called Kraken has 3 million views on YouTube and they don\u2019t do a damn thing and have damn Toyota pickups.<br \/>\nNew prioritized brigade order, everyone who has a smartphone with a decent camera, can fly drones and knows some damn editing program on any computer is exempt from front-line service and can sign up today now for the newly established PR platoon from five minutes ago. Then we need someone who has figured out what the hell this Vikings thing is because our film with Ukrainian folk music got no views and we even had prisoners of war in it, a week\u2019s leave for the soundtrack, can someone spell Spotify.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nSh1t, how much combat footage we will see in the next two months.<br \/>\nThey will trigger each other enormously and in the end it will be drones sweeping over mechanized combat and you don\u2019t need anything else, the bucket list is fully checked off. They\u2019ll probably take the last Bayraktar drones for that and risk court-martial for the coolest panoramic sweep.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>16:24<\/h2>\n<p>They have started remote striking the traffic jam in Izyum with newly delivered artillery.<br \/>\nWhat Manul writes above I guess is SOF on a large scale cutting off the retreat route.<br \/>\nIf some mech brigade has advanced and cut off the retreat route that we don\u2019t know about, that would be a bombshell of news.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>16:34<\/h2>\n<p>Apparently all artillery tubes are firing at full speed at Kherson as well.<br \/>\nUkraine has not in any way sneak-started here but has opened fire Russian-style with everything they have even though it\u2019s smart artillery ammunition and every shot is a hit.<br \/>\nIt doesn\u2019t cost anything to keep pounding with artillery so they can keep going until the ammunition runs out.<br \/>\nThe gong for Iraq War 2.0 certainly started with a big fireworks display.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>16:44<\/h2>\n<p>If you want to see how fun it is to be in the traffic jam in Izyum right now, the fire map below is pretty good, the whole forest belt is burning.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov\/map\/#d:24hrs;@38.8,48.9,8z\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov\/map\/#d:24hrs;@38.8,48.9,8z<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>16:53<\/h3>\n<p>That&#8217;s what I&#8217;m starting to wonder about if the Airborne and the mechanized brigade in the forest belt west of Balakliia and Savyntsi have thundered straight east and cut off the retreat route. That would be a sensation and we haven&#8217;t heard anything about it at all but they have been lying there in the forests with a purpose.<br \/>\nIf they go straight east, they also cut the bridge over the river to Borova and that&#8217;s game over.<br \/>\nIf they have enough firepower, all BTGs in that area will be blown away before May 9, 25 in number or whatever it was.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>16:57<\/h3>\n<p>Absolutely, now there must be maximum chaos in Izyum and Kherson when everything explodes around them and then the mechanized brigades thunder forward at night when the Russians planned to sleep. Such an offensive would be tactically smart because you get inside the Russians&#8217; decision circle and they don&#8217;t have time to order a retreat in time and you can trap them both in Izyum and Kherson. Now I&#8217;m running way ahead of events here, haven&#8217;t read a thing and am just wildly guessing \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>17:15<\/h2>\n<p>Now it&#8217;s full speed on Johan&#8217;s guessing here, I guess I should flag that.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nI was going to post below about refusal to fight and speculate a bit about it but that will have to wait because Iraq War 2.0 just started, I&#8217;ll put this here<br \/>\n\u201dAccording to available information, a number of servicemen with the 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army of Russia\u2019s Eastern Military District, after being taken to the recovery area, due to significant personnel losses, refused to continue participating in hostilities in Ukraine. The mentioned servicemen are in the area near the Ukrainian-Russian border and are waiting to be transferred back to Russia\u201d.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\n\u201dUnits of militants of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Combined Arms Army of Russia\u2019s Southern Military District, based in the village of Svativ district, Luhansk region, staffed by locals from nearby settlements are experiencing low morale and significant issues with weapons and equipment supplies, remaining unprepared to perform combat missions\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>17:24<\/h3>\n<p>Arvid22 wrote an excellent post higher up that probably got lost in the noise that the Russians might be pulling everything back to Donbass and Crimea and can&#8217;t be driven out from there.<br \/>\nNow the world&#8217;s best strategists from the USA are no worse than Arvid22 at reading the signs and considering the retreat from Kiev, the plan here is likely to cut off the retreat route both at Kherson and Izyum before the Russians have managed to make decisions and the retreat orders have propagated down the organization.<br \/>\nThere isn&#8217;t a Russian commander who will dare to take the initiative to retreat before May 9 and Ukraine will have the night to let the trap close, spelled night combat means.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nWhen Gerasimov eventually wakes up really hungover tomorrow morning and stumbles out to the bathroom rubbing his backside and tells the adjutants to go to hell before he understands the extent of the collapse, it will be too late.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAt Izyum it&#8217;s about mining, fire ambushes and prepared artillery targets with SOF and maybe the two brigades on the western flank have advanced, who knows\u2026<br \/>\nKherson, I still think you should cut the bridges or put them under indirect fire with guided ammunition until they are clogged with burning vehicles?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>17:46<\/h3>\n<p>Yes, and you can go down to Africa and there whole countries are a big bonfire, I&#8217;ve checked around a bit on that too.<br \/>\nJust with Izyum, the protective forest area where they have deployed their units is burning and that combined with Ukraine&#8217;s message about an offensive against Izyum and a lot of chatter about Ukrainian artillery makes you guess that it&#8217;s not only whole roasted pigs being prepared for May 9 but quite a lot of burning Russian materiel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>18:17<\/h3>\n<p>Yes, that forest belt and Andriivka are still in Kharkiv oblast, that is the province.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\n1000kr question is whether the 93rd Mechanized and 25th Airborne have advanced straight east and deny the Russians both road M03 northwards and the bridge over to Borova. My money has been on SOF, mining and artillery but according to Nathan Ruser units have passed a bridge but it is in the wrong area, I can&#8217;t puzzle this together yet.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAll modus operandi so far suggests that Ukraine would not close the road with mechanized units but they have equipment for night fighting and that would be the absolutely nicest solution to drive the brigades forward and go on defense with one northwards and one southwards during the night and trap the whole traffic jam.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAccording to all maps, Ukraine controls Oskil so they are denied a retreat eastwards.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThe mechanized brigade that pushed towards Kupiansk has been detached to clear north of Kharkiv.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>18:31<\/h2>\n<p>Now the blogger has sorted everything out as usual \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nThe bridge was over Protopopivka which is on the map west of Izyum.<br \/>\nIt&#8217;s a bit tricky place because it&#8217;s straight into the forest belt that is burning now and where one can assume many Russian units are standing. You might think a bit north of that would be more suitable for potential encirclement?<br \/>\nHowever, it seems that it is the two brigades west of Izyum that have started moving.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>19:08<\/h2>\n<p>One thing we can be sure of is that the message from official Ukrainian sources was not before the offensive started but after it had begun and that it was already understood on the ground.<br \/>\nThey definitely don&#8217;t strike from below against the Izyum offensive but will either remotely fight it away until they start retreating north into mines and fire ambushes or that the two brigades have advanced\/have been advancing.<br \/>\nWe can probably assume that they won&#8217;t let such a twelve-gauge that is fighting with itself down at Izyum out, especially not before May 9.<br \/>\nNow it will probably be messy for a few days before one understands what is going on here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>21:00<\/h3>\n<p>Yes, Ukraine must go on the offensive before the Russians have received the order to go on defense and try to encircle what they can so it is not moved to Donbass and Crimea.<br \/>\nThat order will not come before May 9 and then it has to go down several levels and then the order must be executed so the window is a few weeks.<br \/>\nAfter that even the Russians can start digging a hole and jump down into it in several lines.<br \/>\nThere is a reason Ukraine goes on the offensive on May 5 and only they know it right now.<br \/>\nOn pro-Russian blogs they are starting to push that there will be no mobilization on May 9, then it is most likely that they try to go on defense in Donbass and Crimea?<br \/>\nAt least I would be infinitely disappointed if there is some kind of politically forced solution here where Ukraine must give up Donbass and Crimea but it doesn&#8217;t sound like that from the rhetoric.<br \/>\nRight now the feeling is that things are going really badly for the Russians at Izyum, Kherson there is nothing much really I think.<br \/>\nFog of war right now.<br \/>\nIf Ukraine plays the cards completely right now they can shorten the war by several months but we&#8217;ll see.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>22:34<\/h3>\n<p>That one I&#8217;ve thought a lot about, I think Putin had a good plan but he had bad luck and some flawed thinking.<br \/>\nbig mistakes,<br \/>\n-Belarus gave a walkover and they waited until after the Olympics so the soldiers sold fuel and food.<br \/>\n\u2013 the biggie was that the FSB stole the bribes to Ukrainian bigwigs who were supposed to give them the keys.<br \/>\n-going straight at big cities instead of bypassing them and letting the second echelon handle the encirclement.<br \/>\n-not going all in immediately but some kind of half-hearted liberation that the soldiers didn&#8217;t understand.<br \/>\n-that the Russian army ran an Afghan war and only had a paper army.<br \/>\n\u2013 Russian doctrine with an army too small, they didn&#8217;t have the armor and soldiers to sacrifice as they did.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThe plan \u2013<br \/>\nDrop paratroopers on the government quarters and take out Zelensky.<br \/>\nCapture Hostomel and land VDV with transport planes.<br \/>\nDrive down 15,000 of the best units west of Kiev, link up with Hostomel and pump in VDV and supplies.<br \/>\nDrive down a wedge east of Kiev and surround the city.<br \/>\nLet Belarus occupy all of Ukraine&#8217;s western border to the west so no help comes in.<br \/>\nGo down from Kharkiv towards Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia and encircle the entire ceasefire line (I think 1st Guards Tank Army)<br \/>\nSouthern front encircle Mariupol and together with landings take Odessa.<br \/>\nIncorporate Transnistria and Moldova into Russia.<br \/>\nHungary swears loyalty.<br \/>\nThe Balkan countries are compliant.<br \/>\nPut the lid on it<br \/>\nLie like a Russian about absolutely everything.<br \/>\nCleanse Ukraine Mariupol style.<br \/>\nDone.<br \/>\nGermany and France mostly just wanted Ukraine to roll over and die so they wouldn&#8217;t have to make tough decisions.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIn my opinion Putin has actually had a hell of a bad luck with everything but there were quite a few decisions that were his that were wrong and others were symptomatic of Russia.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nWhat I can feel though is that if it had been 1984 and 15,000 tanks had thundered across the border into West Germany they would have reached the English Channel just by momentum so I don&#8217;t quite understand why they never made a move back then. The rumor was that whole divisions stood fully fueled in barns so the early warning the West thought they would get with the buildup was never there, they could sneak into the barns and then on a Monday morning a couple of divisions crashed across the border.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>22:39<\/h4>\n<p>the bargaining chip had been that the entire army in the east was encircled.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>09:44 I think it is important to keep in mind here that when we get reports that the Russians are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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