{"id":6197,"date":"2022-05-01T10:56:39","date_gmt":"2022-05-01T08:56:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-05-01-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T13:09:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T11:09:05","slug":"2022-05-01-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-05-01-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-05-01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

14:11<\/h2>\n

As we have probably said a few days ago, Ukraine has real-time target data and can take out staff locations when meetings take place.
\n\u2014
\nKherson is without battalion commanders, Izyum is probably without most things now \ud83d\ude00 and in Kreminna they also took out something bigger.
\n\u2014
\nNow imagine the Russian offensive going badly, soldiers starting to refuse orders, logistics not working and general war chaos \u2013 completely without functioning combat command down to battalion level.
\n\u2014
\nAdd a Ukrainian counteroffensive in a couple of places and the Russian command will be paralyzed. It will be interesting to see how Russian units act then. I’m starting to wonder if they won’t feel that the best option for them is to give up \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:45<\/h2>\n

We are thus very soon at Iraq level here.
\nCommand posts and air defenses are endangered species in eastern Ukraine and logistics depots are being hit daily and tanks are rolling coffins.
\nThe intervals between depot strikes in Kherson seem to be until they have roughly rebuilt a new one.
\n\u2014
\nAn army three times the Russians’, equipped for night fighting with a cloud of drones, smart artillery ammunition and the entire West’s SOF, has almost finished preparing for its counteroffensive. (A bit too optimistic I know\u2026)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:24<\/h3>\n

Well summarized, I guess. I speculate a bit on goals and purpose in very broad strokes,
\n\u2014
\nThey have probably not achieved anything of strategic value, all villages\/communities they have taken Ukraine can just fall back to the next village\/community and the Russians will lose a few more tanks.
\n\u2014
\nThe only thing that really hurts Ukraine is if the defenders in Mariupol give up but I don’t see that happening, and that is a humanitarian loss rather than strategic.
\nThe widening north of Kharkiv has two purposes (probably), to increase the buffer zone to Kharkiv and protect the northern flank of the advance towards Kupiansk.
\n\u2014
\nPutin will cook up a rather sloppy soup about the situation as it is on May 9 and the dissonance will be total compared to the situation on the ground but as the blogger often points out, the target audience is Russia’s population and not us in the thread. Two paths forward \u2013 escalate (which the Russians have historically always done) or try to freeze the conflict. Freezing is not possible because they won’t have time to bring up reserves before the Ukrainian steamroller starts rolling.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:28<\/h3>\n

Can you give a couple of examples of what we write that is propaganda?
\nI think much of what we guessed 1-2 months ago has happened so if we get to elaborate maybe we will be right this time too (the odds suggest so).
\nI actually get Iraq vibes right now and believe that the US is using experiences from Iraq and Afghanistan and applying them to Ukraine. There is way too much logistics and command posts disappearing here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:12<\/h3>\n

What we see north of Kharkiv are dug-in Russian units against advanced Ukrainian ones.
\nSo far I think they seem to be holding quite well and one can guess that it will look like that everywhere soon.
\nStaryi Saltiv is a very good defensive position between Kharkiv \u2013 the river Silversky Donets and protects the Kupiansk advance from a flank attack from the north. On the eastern side of the river there are plenty of natural obstacles northwards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:40<\/h3>\n

I can’t let go of the fact that this is starting to look like the Iraq war, the US has now built up such a high capability for Ukraine for real-time target data and especially smart artillery ammunition with long range that the Russians are completely hopeless even in the short term.
\nLogistics all the way up to Belgorod explode daily and now all their large staffs in Kherson and Izyum.
\nOne must remember that this is just the beginning, the band howitzers have just started warming up the barrels and as soon as the staffs and logistics depots run out, they will go after air defense radar, grouped air defense, artillery and staffs down to battalion level and then they will probably start picking off individual tanks and armored vehicles. There is no shortage of smart ammunition directly but you have to start at the top of the pyramid.
\nThe Ukrainian Air Force basically only needs to deny the Russians airspace and maybe pick targets beyond artillery range. I wouldn’t be surprised if aviation fuel at airfields further behind the front line will soon come under scrutiny and targets behind the front in Donbass and Crimea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:46<\/h2>\n

If we are to get into politics, it is probably time for countries like Germany, France, Israel, Hungary, China, India to stop backing the wrong horse here. They will soon be without all their contracts with Russia when the country collapses and then they will have to try to negotiate new ones with countries that think they were the buddy who betrayed them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:16<\/h3>\n

Not much, track twisting was a nasty constant task in the military service I remember on our very ancient vehicles and then it was just training when driving around in hilly terrain, you just had to jump out and work on the track again.
\nGetting stuck is another classic and down at Revingehed they had “black holes” where you really got stuck if you were unlucky.
\nIt works perfectly fine to shoot with 12.7 and up against the tracks, anti-tank rockets too, then at least they stand still.
\nThe slightly heavier calibers\/anti-tank weapons you might as well shoot at the vehicle.
\nI thought the Russians had run-flat tires but they are far from it. Our counterparts don’t have them either but I thought run-flat was standard nowadays.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:26<\/h3>\n

Considering the huge hit on the house we saw in the video (if that was the right command post) there shouldn’t be much left there. I thought Gerasimov might have been heading into the house but if the US has real-time target data they are naturally waiting for all battalion commanders to arrive for an all-out vodka with their fresh CO to bond a bit before they release whatever that was.
\n\u2014
\nMy guess is just like yours that in about a week we will find out that Gerasimov died of blood poisoning from his mild bodily injury.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:26<\/h4>\n

Remember Moskva.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:44<\/h3>\n

Yep and I am quite sure that the Russians’ defensive line goes max 10km outside Kupiansk, there is some VDV battalion there that they can’t stretch too far out and they are probably still thinking WW2 style.
\nUkraine can then calmly fortify e.g. Shevchenkove and deny the Russians the road up from Izyum.
\n\u2014
\nBorova is a real trick because you can only get there from the western side of the Oskil river on a bridge and pontoon bridges can be forgotten there. Bridges have proven to be vulnerable.
\n\u2014
\nIf the traffic jam at Izyum tries to bypass the Oskil river at the town of Oskil, go east and then north, they come within direct fire from the forest area so it will definitely be very bloody. Then of course we have the two brigades lurking west of the Izyum offensive in the forest belt and getting bored if the Russians try a bull rush straight north.
\n\u2014
\nI think Ukraine has learned from Kiev and is building up this pocket a bit better. Right now they seem to be letting everyone who wants to go to Izyum, which is probably smart.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:47<\/h2>\n

Is there anyone in the thread who has any reports from the Russians in the last day?
\nUsually, you have to wait for Militaryland’s summary, but everything else I’ve been sniffing around seems to be pretty lukewarm regarding attacks.
\nI’m wondering if it could have to do with the Russian command being wiped out both at Kherson and Izyum?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:27<\/h3>\n

We haven’t really seen in combat;
\nKurganets-25 tracked armored IFV Infantry Fighting Vehicle
\nBTR-MDM
\nUran-9 armed UGV Unmanned Ground Vehicle
\nK-17 VPK-7829 Bumerang BMP-K 8\u00d78 (???)
\nAlso interesting that the Armata was first paraded in 2015, it must have massive problems if they haven’t managed to get it sorted in 7 years.
\nI’ve seen pictures of the BMD \u2013 4M in Ukraine, it took a while before I understood what it was.
\n\u2014
\nWhat a parody Russia really is, they parade these while soldiers are burning in Ukraine in unmodified T72s.
\nCorruption is truly epidemic at all levels and absolutely devastating.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:38<\/h3>\n

There isn’t much more than this, it took them almost a month to reinforce up to these 80-90 BTGs and then they scraped the bottom of the barrel, they transported T72s by train from Vladivostok!
\n\u2014
\nThere is some risk they might free up a bit more in the short term but it is absolutely nothing like troop trains or larger mobilizations of reserves, the last I heard was that they gathered 20,000 \u2013 30,000 men for this offensive.
\n\u2014
\nIt will take 3-6 months for Putin to drum up something resembling February again and then they’ll run unmodified T72s, BMP-1s, and BMP-2s with unmotivated soldiers who have zero desire to be slaughtered in Ukraine.
\n\u2014
\nFirst and foremost, Ukraine will take the opportunity to go on the counteroffensive before these 3-6 months but if we now entertain the thought that there will be a round two, then we already know that the West will equip Ukraine’s army with Western weapons no matter the cost and they have 300,000 men in maneuver brigades and probably formed brigade structures for a few hundred thousand more now, there isn’t even a microscopic chance that round 3 will go better than it does now and right now it is pure Iraq war all over again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:51<\/h2>\n

I’m sticking my neck out again but I think that on May 9 the Bunker Dwarf will declare to us that the goals of the peacekeeping operation have been achieved and that he really wants to prevent Ukraine’s self-inflicted suffering and have peace in our time.
\n\u2014
\nYou will then see a spectacle like no other, France and Germany will appeal for peace and that Ukraine must calm down and think of the children. Swedish peace advocates and Jan G will stand on the barricades calling Ukraine warmongers and the media will have front pages with PEACE in our time. Ukraine will of course sweep away the Russians anyway and we can add more fifth columnists to the lists who reveal themselves.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:11<\/h3>\n

Yes, these future guesses are wish lists of course. However, I have tried to piece together how the Russians must interpret this and when all their staffs are shot away and there are fires in every materiel depot south of Moscow, I think even they start to realize that it is game over. They have inventoried the tank depots and realized they have 500 left or something.
\n\u2014
\nThen of course I think it’s a bit fun to float something that isn’t mainstream at all and see if I’m right \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:17<\/h4>\n

Yeah, like he\u2019s spread out over a couple of square meters under a house and the Russians are doing what they think they\u2019re best at, damage control. No one within 15-20m survived that blast and of course they waited until he was inside the house just like they did with all the terrorists.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:18<\/h4>\n

Yeah, now the penny dropped Lessmog, that was entertaining \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:47<\/h2>\n

I\u2019ll continue on this tomorrow but if Ukraine\/USA can take out Gerasimov two days after he landed in Izyum, they see and hear everything, they know where every damn high-value target in the entire combat area is.
\nFuel and ammunition depots are blowing up all over Russia now and railways, junctions, and other high-value targets are being blown up more than we can keep track of, I’ve lost count and every day is becoming a reason to have a beer.
\nThe offensive where they scraped the bottom of the barrel and brought T72s from Vladivostok has stalled in less than two weeks.
\n\u2014
\nNow we know, and least of all me, what Putin is thinking but if I were the bunker dwarf I would start thinking about an out because this is pure Iraq war right now. The only out he has is to declare that the goals have been achieved on May 9 and hope to freeze the conflict (which will not succeed) but we have to wait a week. If he is too far gone and it\u2019s Hitler\u2019s map war in the bunker, he can probably prolong this through war declaration, general mobilization, and nuclear weapons but the end is inevitable.
\n\u2014
\nNow over to the military, they know they have been completely humiliated in Ukraine and now their Chief of Defense has died in the worst way. The jungle drum also exists in the Russian army. Every general knows that the stock of 15,000 tanks is more like 2,000 where maybe they can get a thousand more operational within half a year but they are unmodified tanks and they know Ukraine gets the hottest stuff on the market with night combat capability. Even a Russian has family and children and is probably not so eager to die for nothing and they have some pressure on them to lead from the front.
\n\u2014
\nIf the bunker dwarf chooses war on May 9, I think the army itself will put a stop to it, maybe it won\u2019t be as fun as them making a revolution during the parade but maybe they will withdraw troops from Ukrainian territory during the summer? They might try some defense but as soon as the tanks that are dug in are taken out by Ukrainian artillery at a pace that makes you really tear up, the penny will drop even with the command that defense is not an option. Are they going to continue all the way to zero survivors which is roughly where we will be in a few months when Ukraine has deployed all the tracked howitzers and gotten night combat equipment to all maneuver brigades.
\n\u2014
\nIf the army leadership chooses not to act, I think the soldiers themselves will vote with their feet and either refuse to advance or surrender. There must be a bigger loss first, maybe Kherson or that they encircle the Izyum offensive at Kupiansk. After that, every soldier knows that Ukraine is a death trap and chooses life.
\n\u2014
\nPutin has no ace up his sleeve here and it\u2019s going too fast now, if you blow up 4 high command posts in under two weeks the advantage is so massive that you no longer have a sporting chance. Now you probably shouldn\u2019t underestimate how big idiots the Russians are but it will go downhill very fast if they choose war, much faster than all experts predict in their coffee grounds.
\n\u2014
\nThis is Johan No.1\u2019s prediction after some mushrooms \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

00:33<\/h2>\n

I’ll finish by saying there is a very good spread of opinions in the thread for the discussion to work its way forward, some cautious and tentative and some like me\u2026 The breadth of how people perceive the situation is important to succeed in hashing out some kind of reasonable scenarios and probably that is also why the blog and thread writers manage to hit right more than chance, when you finally reach consensus it is highly reasonable.
\nSure, sometimes we fall for disinformation and if ukrainiancanadian turns out to be a scam it would be unfortunate<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

14:11 As we have probably said a few days ago, Ukraine has real-time target data and can take out staff 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