{"id":6199,"date":"2022-05-07T08:04:53","date_gmt":"2022-05-07T06:04:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-05-07-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T13:10:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T11:10:05","slug":"2022-05-07-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-05-07-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-05-07"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:50<\/h3>\n

There have been many rumors, submarine, patrol boat, Makarov, so not impossible, right?
\nI still believe that the USA jammed both Moscow’s and Makarov’s fire control radar, especially Makarov should have had a functioning system.
\nA few years ago, Russian aircraft made an approach against an American ship in the Mediterranean and their fire control was jammed.
\nThat the USA wouldn’t have the same capability seems completely unbelievable to me.
\nThen of course we will hear all kinds of stories about how it happened, but it almost has to be the truth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:55<\/h3>\n

It was part of the plan, Severiedonetsk and Lichyansk can be encircled, also Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
\nNow that didn’t happen because Ukraine only retreated to the forest belt between Kramatorsk \u2013 Severiedonetsk and the Russians got no advance from the south but they seem to have pushed south of Yampil.
\nWorth noting that to encircle Severodonetsk they need to cross open fields with forest areas at a distance for tank fire so low risk.
\nSo no risk at all, it was probably part of the plan and quite incredible that the Russians haven’t succeeded better than this with Severedonetsk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:14<\/h2>\n

I follow F-M’s post above regarding the pre-battle of Russian units at Izyum released May 4.
\nOne can guess that Ukraine’s artillery opened fire a day or two before Ukraine announced offensive operations at Kharkov and Izyum on May 5. Up at Kharkov it was already in full swing and then everything just accelerated.
\nIn the forest area south of Izyum was probably the biggest traffic jam, on May 3 fires started to break out in that area and on May 5-6 the whole area was ablaze, it geographically follows where the Russians can be assumed to be pressing and is marked as Russian territory on the maps. Today, May 7, there are no fires which should correlate quite well with how long a BTG burns \ud83d\ude42 No Russian commander will order a retreat before May 9 and there are probably quite a few BTGs down there that no longer have battalion commanders or know who the nearest higher command is since entire command chains have been wiped out.
\nAt Izyum and Kharkov one can assume that quite a few of the new tracked howitzers have been sent and Izyum was ripe to be taken as they have pushed their BTGs hardest there, they started 1.5 weeks before the official start of the spring offensive when Lavrov rang the bell on April 19 or whenever it was.
\n\u2014
\nOptimistic guesses about Iraq War 2.0 were probably at 01:00 on May 10 when the Russians had been partying on vodka and coolant so Ukraine really surprised here. All experts have said that Ukraine needs months to go on the offensive \u2013 they were wrong again as usual but will come back when it’s all over and adjust their models. The thread’s guess was probably that Ukraine must take the opportunity to go on the offensive where they can when the Russians slow down but before they start digging in. At Kharkov the Russians had weakened because they sent 20 BTGs down to Izyum which was recovering. They seem to have 3-4 BTGs up at the border and Belgorod’s Governor has probably started taking down the paintings and packed the silverware because there is not much between Belgorod and the Ukrainian advance (Ukraine will not cross the border is my guess or what do you think, after all they have said if they can take Belgorod they will?). Ukraine has done exactly as expected here just earlier, artillery, SOF and a well-balanced offensive that does not waste Ukrainian lives.
\n\u2014
\nWe have also discussed that the critical mass has been in Ukraine’s favor for some months now, they can defend the front and at the same time build up reserves for the offensive which they have demonstrably done. What we haven’t talked about more than a week and which I think most experts miss here is that when the Russians attack and we get the reports it is completely senseless attacks and they go to zero. That Ukraine does not counterattack is interpreted as them not being strong enough but the truth is probably rather that they are conserving losses and have built offensive capacity while the Russians are finished. The latest week’s Russian attacks we can completely disregard, they achieve nothing other than enormous own losses.
\n\u2014
\nLet this sink in \u2013 the Russians declare the spring offensive on April 19, they achieve nothing and it starts to slow down and Ukraine goes on the counteroffensive on May 5 at two of 5\/6 front sections (depending on how you see it) and it is almost a slaughter and at Kharkov a wild flight. That they could go on the offensive before May 9 when all Russian commanders had the whip cracking means that the condition of the Russian units is worse than even we in the thread guessed and we are still probably northern Europe’s most optimistic group of people.
\n\u2014
\nNow back to the Russians having 50 BTGs between Kramatorsk \u2013 Severedonetsk which they will not be able to send south and demonstrably many BTGs are in terrible condition by now. Izyum was the focus point for the Russian attack and almost incredible that Ukraine went on the counteroffensive there. It doesn’t go much better at Popasna where they probably waste 6-10 BTGs and now they have to start reinforcing Belgorod as well. Donbass, southern front and Kherson have about 30 BTGs + Donbass rebels who are very tired of life and are starting to look at whether EU membership might be preferable.
\n\u2014
\nAt Kherson things are happening a bit in the shadows (some have posted above), they set up roadblocks inside Kherson city (why then, probably SOF) and have taken out a “base”. Down at Melitopol there was an explosion the other day and at Heroiske it burned for two days, Russian artillery I guess. At Kherson are some of Russia’s best BTGs and they have now dug in at Kherson. On May 2-3 there was information about large-scale artillery shelling there, 40 targets and another staff so one can guess that the barrels that were left were sent there, 55th Artillery and 19th Rocket brigades.
\n\u2014
\nI understand that there must be a period of \u2013 “sure, but Ukraine taking Kharkov was just luck, now they will have to wait several months again before they can go on the offensive” but I skip that. I am quite sure that Ukraine will increase pressure across the entire front immediately with artillery, SOF and where gaps arise they push as now, balanced and relentlessly forward. If the Russians manage to retreat in an organized way to Donbass and Crimea it can become too difficult to take back so one must exploit the window before and after May 9, they probably have a couple of weeks before Gerasimov’s replacement has settled into the job and orders about new positions and defense have managed to reach BTGs without battalion commanders.
\n\u2014
\nThere is too much force buildup at Kherson for it to just be about knocking out these 7 BTGs that are defending there. We have now seen how good Russian units in defense are up at Kharkov so no one believes Kherson will fare better\u2026 Potentially (and with Makarov gone the risk of a landing is probably zero) Ukraine has 10 maneuver brigades west of the Dnieper, a whole 40 BTGs + maybe 5 more. The Russian units at Kherson will need to be softened up with artillery for a while because they are in very good defensive positions and are, as said, Russian elite who have not made senseless attacks and can probably fight back quite well. Next time it lights up on FIRMS in Kherson it will be time \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nThen Melitopol, Mariupol and Crimea one can guess. It would be cool if the defenders in Mariupol could make sorties in all directions and I think they still have combat value. Donbass will probably be rolled up from the south but that will take the longest. All terrain north of Horlivka, that is the arc\/pocket Ukraine controls but also north and east of that will be rolled up Kharkov-style during the summer. No Russian units have gone on defense there so it will go very fast.
\n\u2014
\nNow that they have cleared all terrain west of the Severetsky-Donets river there is no obstacle to push towards Kupiansk again.
\nIn total on the western flank of the Izyum offensive there are 7 heavy brigades but a couple have to entertain themselves with defense to the north, 3-4 should be able to be sent east if desired.
\n\u2014
\nNow that we have been able to ring the bell for Iraq War 2.0 and Ukraine is really delivering in style here the next early signals to watch for are a Russian partial collapse on some front section. Kharkov was probably a bit too poorly defended by the Russians so a win there was expected but if Izyum collapses it sends shockwaves, the jungle drum is also in the Russian army. Kherson and Melitopol just have to be ripe soon\u2026
\nA dark horse might be that all Russian units north of Slovyansk \u2013 Severedonetsk have worn themselves out and that the Ukrainian brigades there can go on the offensive at the same time as they press towards\/past Kupiansk. Some kind of domino effect of Izyum falling that accelerates Russian unwillingness to be on Ukrainian soil. It’s almost unfair that the Russians can just operate north of the border and be safe\u2026
\n\u2014
\nOne can also guess that now that the Russians have full focus on saving what can be saved at Izyum and have to get the Governor of Belgorod to safety, Ukraine will strike at the next place quite soon. The Donbass frontline is difficult so Kherson \u2013 Melitopol is close at hand and losing Crimea would be so monumentally humiliating for Putin.
\n\u2014
\nDo you think they will move 80% of the barrels from the Izyum area down to west and east of the Dnieper near Kherson and Zaporozhye?
\nMaybe that’s why it no longer burns at Izyum and that should then mean that what remains can be removed with those left behind or something?
\n\u2014
\nI think the washed-away pontoon bridge that Ukraine set up west of Izyum was to infiltrate SOF and units for the free war, it was in a strange place.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:42<\/h3>\n

The Russians have gathered their BTGs down in the forest belt where it was burning as you write STAFFAN, and then they have defenses further north at Balakliia, Salantsyi (you have written quite a bit about this for a couple of days now, I think you were first on that ball).
\nNow Ukraine seems to be pushing through the forest belt itself, what the hell!
\nThey certainly can’t just drive across the open field between Russian forces.
\nEither there are infiltrated SOF and national battalions and the Russians are completely blown away down there, or the heavy brigades have started moving, the ones that have been lurking on the western flank of the Izyum offensive.
\nThat forest should literally be crawling with Russians, so either Nathan Ruser has slipped up or Izyum is no more and Nathan is usually very thorough \ud83d\ude09
\nFor two days the forest burned like the best slash-and-burn agriculture as you say.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51<\/h3>\n

XSI33, there is a bit of fog of war right now but we know a couple of things, facts.
\n\u2013 offensive Ukrainian operations at Izyum and Kharkiv.
\n\u2013 large fires May 4-6 in exactly the area around Izyum where the Russians are expected to be holding.
\n\u2013 300-400 deployed artillery tubes from the West with long range and smart ammunition.
\nThings we believe,
\n\u2013 Nathan Ruser\u2019s map showing Ukraine advancing in the forest area southwest of Izyum which is supposed to be packed with Russians and a washed-away pontoon bridge.
\nNow I know the post is not directed at me but I don\u2019t base the Izyum collapse on pulling away 4 BTGs but on the above, we are probably a bit opposites but sometimes I get lucky and hit the mark and keep my fingers crossed here \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:08<\/h3>\n

I would like to adjust my last sentence, now Nathan Ruser has released maps showing Ukrainian advances in the forest belt southeast of the city of Izyum and up to Izyum (damn that you never have the energy to read the comments when you write posts\u2026). All the Russian BTGs were there and the pontoon bridge was probably there for what LW expresses very well\u2014\u201ca bit bigger boots rummaging around in the sandbox.\u201d
\nIt is the 25th Airborne or the 93rd Mechanized that have started moving from their resting position in the forests on the western flank of the Izyum offensive, these are two real heavyweights that could be equipped with new materiel and have combat value at the absolute top.
\n\u2014
\nI have to say that if Nathan Ruser\u2019s maps are correct, which I believe they are, and they correlate very well with the fires from a few days ago, then the Russian units at Izyum are no more, at least half of them have now been overrun.
\nUkraine first pre-bombarded with a couple of hundred artillery tubes and then cut them right in the flank where they least expected it.
\nYou can hardly believe it\u2019s true, they are doing better than in Iraq War 2.0 here.
\nWith the reservation that Nathan might have mixed it up but he has always been very careful and I am moving this to facts now.
\n\u2014
\nWhen the Izyum offensive is broken down into its components, it\u2019s just a matter of rolling up all Russian units north of the Slovyansk \u2013 Severodonetsk line from the west, cutting them in the flank and protecting northwards. That this would be done by the end of summer might have been pessimism of the higher school because if you sweep away the Izyum offensive in a few days the timeline is seriously accelerated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:22<\/h2>\n

It has gone quite fast here but I just want to inform that since Ukraine announced offensive operations northeast of Kharkiv and at Izyum on May 5, they have retaken all terrain northeast of Kharkiv before the river and probably completely slaughtered half of the units at Izyum, if not more, FIRMS suggests that the rest northeast of Izyum is in equally bad shape. The fog of war has been thick and LW and Staffan posted this very early.
\nLet that sink in and spare a thought for all the experts who now once again have to adjust their models and wait a while with a wet finger in the air before they can show up on TV because they have all confidently stated that the Ukrainian offensive would come only in the summer and that Russia might have to settle for Donbass and Crimea in the end. We can probably all guess how this will end \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:29<\/h3>\n

My thought is that artillery and drones replace the role of the air force as it was in the Iraq War so Ukraine\u2019s air force is not needed and that it is enough to deny Russian air force access to eastern Ukraine. I wrote about this in some long post when I started pitching about Iraq War 2.0.
\n\u2014
\nWe will never see large tank battles (mechanized combat would be a bit of a dream to get panoramic flights over) but only more of the same, units at company or BTG size, a mixed bunch with infantry protecting armor that exploits openings and takes opportunities on the fly and very much artillery and drones and SOF. They will conserve Ukrainian soldiers\u2019 lives until the last day of the war.
\n\u2014
\nI am not a damn expert but I have been right here and it\u2019s really fun, now the Ukrainian offensive was supposed to come only in summer and they blow away all of Izyum in one morning \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:08<\/h4>\n

Additional note is of course night fighting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:16<\/h2>\n

Yes, the 93rd Mechanized has also started moving, https:\/\/twitter.com\/Blue_Sauron\/status\/1522850295331659778<\/a><\/p>\n

Also want to highlight how accurate FIRMS was here since already on May 5 we saw armageddon around Izyum and today that information is starting to come out.
\nAt least I will be glued to FIRMS zoomed in on Kherson now \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:26<\/h2>\n

Many videos have been posted with Ukrainian drones simply dropping a wing grenade on a tank but something that struck me today is that on a Swedish armored vehicle the entire crew had scanned in all directions.
\nDuring conscription there was an occasion when we were lying asleep and the old Norrland Ranger ensign sneaked up on us and threw himself over us with wild knife movements and throat shouting. We got so much crap for that that we even set up tripwires with empty tin cans after that for the rest of conscription time. He often sneaked around in the undergrowth at night when we were out, you could almost assume he was lying and hiding somewhere and if you didn\u2019t bring your weapon out or did something else wrong he would take a huge leap out and bark for a while.
\nThe Russians don\u2019t do that, they just sit dug in and wait to be shot out.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:12<\/h3>\n

I believe that, strange place for maintenance and an armored platoon doesn\u2019t burn like that which was probably what had been assigned there.
\nUkraine held Stanislav and Oleksandrivka for quite a long time and a damn good artillery position to lob shells on them so my money is on them having taken care of some artillery.
\nNow it\u2019s burning quite well east of the Dnipro down by Kherson so they are probably shooting away the targets they know of. In a few days we will probably hear that \u201cnow there are offensive operations at Kherson\u201d and then you run to FIRMS and it\u2019s a red mess everywhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:06<\/h2>\n

Now I want to criticize ISW a bit because reading their May 6 update and about Izyum it says,
\n\u201cRussian forces did not make any progress on the Izyum axis.\u201d
\nAt that time we were talking about fires along the entire Russian line because we saw it on FIRMS.
\n\u2014
\nIsn\u2019t that just old generals etc. with good contacts trying to be early?
\nAnyone can really wait until something has happened and then package it a bit nicely and post.
\nThe challenge is still to interpret the signs well I think here?
\nISW has been a disappointment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:40<\/h2>\n

It has been lingering and irritating in the back of my mind for a while, but now I can put it into words \u2013
\nRussia is passive; since the start of the spring offensive, Russia has been completely passive, and Ukraine is the one looking for openings and working its way into the cracks.
\nJust today we saw a photo of Makarov in Sevastopol, the significant thing about that is that several larger ships are docked at the quay in Sevastopol, which is within drone and missile range and soon artillery range with the right ammunition.
\nRussian units are just waiting to be wiped out right now; the confusion must be almost total in Izyum and the losses sky-high. I can’t see any front where the Russians are in control.
\nIn Russia, Ukraine is constantly searching for high-value targets, and there are daily explosions.
\nIt’s not just that Ukraine has the initiative; Russia is doing nothing to counter it right now at all.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:12<\/h3>\n

You barely finish discussing one area before the next one starts \ud83d\ude42
\nIt’s a bit south of Vasylivka as you write, right in the advance route down to Melitopol.
\nI see no signs of pre-attack on FIRMS (but they seem to update 24\/7) and can’t find anything in any sources about a major offensive down there. Could it be SOF on steroids paving the way for a ground offensive?
\nThat said, Ukraine has so far pushed first and then officially announced it, so it could also be the motorized brigade and something behind it that has advanced, and a message from the staff slipped out by mistake?
\nWe’ll see, but what we can be fairly sure of is that Kherson and down towards Melitopol from Zaporizhzhia are not far off in time.
\nThey probably want to reach Mariupol and then occupy Crimea before the Russians can conduct an organized retreat there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:19<\/h2>\n

You remember CNN and all the experts during the Iraq War; they were constantly spot-on and probably got their daily updates from inside the staffs, it had to look good on TV. I had a month off right when the war started in 2003 and spent that month with FOX News, CNN, and a couple of beers.
\n(Do you remember the mustached guy on Fox News embedded with the troops who was more optimistic than me and who they sent home? He was completely ecstatic and was jumping up and down?)
\n\u2014
\nAll the updates I read in this war are way behind here, and their models are completely obsolete. Even the UK Ministry of Defense, which has been quite positive, talked about what the Russians would keep of Ukraine a few days ago.
\nI am quite surprised and take Izyum as an example; we saw immediately on FIRMS what was happening, and Nathan Ruser (whoever he is\u2026) had some satellite data available from presumably open sources. Why can’t these experts interpret the signs as we do? You get a puzzle piece that fits, and then you have a likely puzzle; everything is probability. It’s just to compare 93 Russian BTGs in poor condition storming straight against 200,000 Ukrainians dug in up to their earlobes in maneuver brigades \u2013 even a baby can see how this would end. Then with Ukraine’s counteroffensive, all brigades that have not been on the front have been in reserve, and when you have a hammer with 70,000 men in elite brigades to deploy anywhere, you can expect to do it before the opponent regains the initiative after an extremely costly offensive. It fits well in time and aligns with Ukraine’s capability.
\n\u2014
\nI may be completely wrong here, but the whole point of being an expert should be to read the signs better than ordinary mortals? Right now, I can’t think of a single time anyone else in Sweden has been ahead of this blog, and a big reason for that, I think, is that LW set the tone very early and got us to read the right sources, and that it is one big group effort posting information so we avoid disinformation on the blog. Pro-Russian sources are extremely deceptive, and it seems MSM still fall for them. I fell for it with Mariupol a couple of times and mostly hope the thread’s memory is short.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:20<\/h3>\n

I also had a whisky that month with FOX News and CNN<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:53<\/h2>\n

XSI22 \u2013 saw your long reply to my post, and it was well written; I guess it’s too far back in the noise now. What makes the thread so good is different opinions weighed against each other and over time leading to the most reasonable outcome; I read everything thoroughly. The last time there was such a good forum was the submarine thread on Skalman, which died out a few years ago, and LW deserves huge credit for that. This is one big group effort. I’ve fallen for wrong information a few times and hope the thread’s memory is short \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:52<\/h2>\n

Now I’m working through the latest fifty posts and all the information; something that has come up is that Kupiansk is not decisive because Ukraine has basically all supply routes down from Belgorod under indirect fire now, and the Russians in Vovchansk might as well choose life and move a few miles north. I didn’t see this coming and have been puzzling over why Ukraine let go of Kupiansk, but now we have the answer; very well played by the Russians who intend to hold Kupiansk and have had some VDV up there, saving many soldiers’ lives and completely confusing the Russians in the stands here because the Russians have sent all BTGs from north of Kharkiv\/south of Belgorod down to Izyum.
\n\u2014
\nNow the Russians have to take a huge detour to get any supplies down to Izyum, which means less meat stew and fuel for those possibly still alive. There are also a couple of Russian BTGs on the western flank of the Izyum offensive that the 93rd Mechanized and 25th Airborne have to push through, and artillery and poor logistics can probably wear them down; FIRMS and Nathan will guide us. When it breaks, Ukraine will have a natural defensive line north all the way to Kupiansk with the rivers running in a V-E direction. There are many crossings over the Oskil river, and it will not pose a direct obstacle for Ukraine, and above all, all Russian units east of Oskil believe the Izyum offensive protects their western flank, so they have all focus on pushing south, and Ukrainian maneuver brigades keep the pressure up down there; there is nothing to allocate to the western flank.
\n\u2014
\nI’ll bet five hundred that Ukraine is inside the Russians’ decision circle now and that the terrain east of Oskil and north of the Slovyansk \u2013 Severodonetsk line will be retaken as soon as a well-balanced offensive with reasonable losses allows. If the Russians have to choose between that area or Belgorod, they will choose to fortify Belgorod. There is surely a chess term for this, but well played Ukraine \ud83d\ude42
\nA little over 25% of all occupied terrain is now just a matter of time before Ukraine retakes it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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