{"id":6205,"date":"2022-05-09T09:08:42","date_gmt":"2022-05-09T07:08:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-05-09-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T13:12:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T11:12:08","slug":"2022-05-09-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-05-09-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-05-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:25<\/h2>\n

Sorry, I\u2019m late into the parade here and trying to read up but understand that Gerasimov was not present?
\nHe is the Chief of the General Staff and should have been there if he was alive\/able to walk without holding his backside.
\n\u2014
\nWas it Shoigu in the car?
\n\u2014
\nThat Syrian general who was supposed to take over, was he present? He has an extremely good reputation and would have been a given?
\n\u2014
\nI understand there were no armbands with Z?
\n\u2014
\nIf I interpret the parade correctly, the dissonance is almost total compared to what is happening in Ukraine and they have a big party where they march nicely and that the whole army is burning and bleeding in Ukraine is of lesser importance, it\u2019s fun to have a celebration.
\nThey are signaling strength here and anyone who sees the parade feels wow, this is a real army.
\n\u2014
\nThere was no revolution, no Ukrainian flags, no threat of nuclear weapons, no sugarcoating with a withdrawal and no declaration of war with general mobilization \u2013 the century\u2019s nothing burger but polished boots and everyone marched in step really nicely, kind of?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:50<\/h2>\n

Wow, Zelensky\u2019s speech was a PR ten-pointer in every category.
\nBoth for the fighting soldiers and the own population but also for the world\u2019s support and belief in a Ukrainian win.
\nIt is very clear that Ukraine will reclaim all its territory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:52<\/h3>\n

Ok thanks, so Gerasimov is alive at least but he is not leading from the front in Izyum which is probably a bit lucky for him given how things are developing down there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42<\/h3>\n

Between February 24 \u2013 April 19, Ukraine had retaken 40%-50% of the frontline (we did not count Belarus here because Lukas was the friend who betrayed).
\nOn April 19, Russia started its spring offensive which was supposed to take \u2013 Kharkov, Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast and the entire southern border to the sea towards Odessa.
\n\u2014
\nThree weeks after the start of the spring offensive, Ukraine has retaken the area around Kharkov and threatens supply routes and has managed to blow away the entire offensive at Izyum which was the Russian concentration point. There is a lot of fog of war so we don\u2019t know exactly what is happening but large Russian losses are likely, very large.
\n\u2014
\nIzyum is not a natural primary target for an offensive and the place they chose is strange, but it has gone well. I would have thought they would cut off the units and let them kill themselves in their traffic jam, they charged straight in instead.
\n\u2014
\nThis leads me to believe that it was either a pure \u2013 seize the opportunity in flight thing \u2013 or a diversion for the real offensive which is the southern front. Liberating Mariupol and retaking Crimea before they have made the peninsula a fortress with all the BTGs left would be quite smart. It\u2019s in the cards.
\n\u2014
\nThen you have a push from the west from the Kharkov \u2013 Izyum line that will go eastward with flank protection northward. After that, only Donbass remains and Ukraine can strike supply lines quite effectively.
\n\u2014
\nHow fast, we don\u2019t know but if there are long troop convoys on the way, Ukraine would do best to act in the vacuum after the spring offensive dies out and they get reinforcements for defense.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:02<\/h2>\n

Balakliya is under attack according to FIRMS so the 93rd Mechanized has started moving eastward.
\nThose who cut the side at Izyum I guess were the 25th Airborne.
\n\u2014
\nIf you look at a 7-day FIRMS map, the entire forest area west, northwest, and southwest of Izyum has burned like a torch and the area east of Izyum as well. Then you have a little string of fires north from Izyum which one can guess is freshly grilled armor.
\n\u2014
\nThe Izyum offensive with its 22 BTGs as marked on the unit maps is thus located in this area. Now not all 22 BTGs were down at Izyum but most presumably with some flank protection and some up near Kupiansk.
\nThen there were reports of 20 new BTGs that moved down from rest status south of Belgorod a few weeks ago but exactly where they went is unclear, the report was for the Izyum offensive but they may also have split it and sent some east of the Oskil river.
\n\u2014
\nWe have reports of some VDV, Guards armor, and the 64th motorized, in total about 5-6 BTGs are completely wiped out\/permanently out of combat condition and one can guess that the remaining 16 BTGs are not freshly painted either since they have all been in the same area and fought the same battle?
\n\u2014
\nI\u2019m not saying all have been knocked out by this pre-battle and offensive curveball but they fought down there 1.5 weeks before April 19 and fast forward until now and 22 BTGs + a couple more have been in combat 4.5 weeks and then subjected to enormous pre-battle and rolled over by a Ukrainian elite brigade as a finishing touch so the guess that most BTGs are out of combat condition down there I think is quite reasonable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:13<\/h2>\n

You really want to wake up to a similar red carpet down at Kherson but if you run a 7-day there it\u2019s very clear that they are pre-battling rear, artillery, supply, and staffs on a large scale and that Snihurivka may be about to be taken but they haven\u2019t run an Izyum against the dug-in BTGs around Kherson yet.
\n\u2014
\nThere is a little string of red dots up from Melitopol to Tokmak and you get no prize for guessing that the free war is raging down there. It probably takes a couple of days to move howitzers and haubits from Izyum to southwest and southeast Zaporizhzhia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:20<\/h2>\n

Hey, at 32:38 in the link below the speaker voice says \u201cblablabla Alexandr Gerasimov\u201d and then there is a picture of a veteran in a face mask. So that is not Gerasimov in that picture so Gerasimov does not exist \ud83d\ude42
\nIs there anyone here who has seen the whole thing and can confirm that he appears in any other picture than the old 90-year-old with a face mask?
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/IG3LAUonvCc<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:22<\/h3>\n

Take a break and think, the Russians average 1.5 BTGs lost per day and now they have been pushing for +4 weeks, that is at least 42 BTGs lost in total. Not totally unreasonable with +20 BTGs lost in Izyum which has been the hottest combat zone.
\nI also have the feeling that we haven\u2019t seen the numbers for that grilling yet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:32<\/h3>\n

Was it T34-85?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:44<\/h3>\n

Remove LW so I don\u2019t have to be embarrassed all day (more crying emojis)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:47<\/h3>\n

Many small streams, I don\u2019t have exact knowledge of how it looks but it has been over one BTG\/day for quite a while now and per day you don\u2019t raise an eyebrow but if you multiply by the number of days they have taken those losses and compare to the 93 BTGs they mobilized for the spring offensive it is enormous losses.
\n\u2014
\nUkraine is not rushing to the Urals because they do as they always have done, well-calculated attacks with the least possible losses except where they have to.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:22<\/h3>\n

MRF and THE SNIPER, yes we are going through a period now where the miracle at Kharkov was a lucky break and that nothing has really happened at Izyum because we don\u2019t have the information yet. The interesting thing is to try to piece together the information before ISW finally catches up, not just adjust after reading a summary.
\n\u2014
\n-LW usually writes that a Russian BTG has 10 tanks and 30 IFVs, sometimes lower sometimes higher.
\n-I am quite sure that the 90-95 BTGs mobilized for the spring offensive were not fully manned in part.
\n-Loss figures lag a few days, it\u2019s not a computer game directly, and Izyum is recent.
\n-Losses were 1130 tanks and 2781 IFVs yesterday.
\n-April 11 I take as an approximate start date for Izyum \u2013 725 tanks and 1923 IFVs grilled.
\n\u2014
\n\u2013 30-40 BTGs of 90-95 BTGs 100% knocked out. Now it doesn\u2019t work that 40 are knocked out and the rest have full combat value but you can have BTGs with a couple of tanks left that simply moved out of the combat area or just sit somewhere without a battalion commander and sulk with zero combat value. 4.5 weeks of constant fighting also wears on a Russian.
\n\u2014
\nMy counter question to you is what you would consider intense fighting and high losses because 40% losses of all BTGs in 4.5 weeks I consider absolutely sky-high and now every single expert has declared that Ukraine could not go on the offensive but nevertheless they clear north of Kharkov and strike at Izyum.
\n\u2014
\nThen you calculate some kind of stalemate where the Russians can dig in and have full supply while you read that depots burn every day, convoys are taken out and the highly reasonable assumption that the 300 artillery tubes with smart ammunition that we know are largely assigned to units can take out stationary targets easier than moving targets. How exactly did you think the Russians would achieve a stalemate here?
\nNot to forget the 300 T72s with night fighting equipment they have received, the Russians probably don\u2019t have many BTGs with night fighting capability.
\n\u2014
\nAnd finally, we know that VDV is reduced by 90%, the first guards armored army is no more and most recently a few days ago that three regiments, one guards, one VDV and 64 motorized moved north or were wiped out at Izyum.
\nYes, these are reports that do not come from the Russians themselves on stamped paper but it correlates quite well with knocked out armor and the number of fires on FIRMS.
\n\u2014
\nSure, I\u2019m guessing like everyone else, sometimes more sometimes less but above are after all hard numbers that we have to relate to and it is anything but a stalemate if you ask me, especially since Ukraine has 250,000-300,000 men in maneuver brigades against the Russians now presumably 90-95 BTGs\/2\u2026
\nUkraine loses at a lower rate and presses in reserve personnel over time is my stable bet.
\n\u2014
\nI believe firmly in FIRMS, Nathan\u2019s satellites correlated well and also the IR satellite and that TESS ran a real field test and looked for Walpurgis Night fires in Sweden on Walpurgis Night and it did not light up like these red dots.
\nWhat more do you need to test run our very own spy satellite?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:37<\/h3>\n

please LW remove my post, I really am ashamed \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:04<\/h3>\n

We know they pulled together 20,000 \u2013 30,000 men for the spring offensive and then the reserves were more readily available than what they have to draw on now.
\n(If I may guess, about 10,000 soldiers from Moscow are on their way down this afternoon).
\nThe experts say it will take the Russians 3-6 months to muster something comparable to what existed on February 24 and I bet money that they will be deployed as they come so no real buildup.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:35<\/h4>\n

I can\u2019t respond to your post MRF since you are at the bottom of the chain, so I have to answer my own,
\n\u2014
\nNo one but the combat leadership knows the situation, Ukraine has suffered far higher losses than they have admitted, we have often discussed that and that we should not sully ourselves in their losses. We know they have 900,000 reserves of which a not insignificant part has combat experience after 8 years of war and that they have received 300 T72s (night combat equipment), drones, image intensifiers for infantry and artillery + guided ammunition in very large quantities. A qualified assumption from me is that Ukraine\u2019s maneuver brigades are intact with the chain of command and expertise so when plugging the gaps the capability is retained.
\n\u2014
\nThis while the Russians are not receiving reinforcements and materiel in equivalent amounts and are exhausting their maneuver units. Provided the Russians have not succeeded well with mobilization which we do not know of course but no OSINT has demonstrated it yet as far as I have read except the troop trains LW mentioned today. With the staffs knocked out entire chains of command go up in smoke and you know as well as I do that Russia\u2019s Chief of Defense was not at the May 9 parade.
\n\u2014
\nRegarding knocked out BTGs it is a somewhat more advanced assumption than you think \ud83d\ude42 It is probably damn hard to advance a Russian BTG completely without shrapnel protection or armor marching in single file across a field against a dug-in defender. A Russian BTG contains around 200 fighting soldiers as I understand.
\n\u2014
\nI don\u2019t know your view on combat value but after three months of very hard fighting it probably approaches zero and you don\u2019t recover a unit in a few weeks. This number of non-combat capable is not reflected in reporting so there are more BTGs than knocked out that they cannot get back into combat. They assembled BTGs from various battered units before the spring offensive and it probably does not work well together with the Russians\u2019 training. I guess that BTGs that are not elite units start to have low combat value at 30% losses after prolonged combat contact and many BTGs have taken greater losses than that.
\n\u2014
\nWhen the word Ergo is used I always flinch a bit but you point out that I exaggerate that poor maintenance affects the Russians\u2019 capability and this after a recent example with the fuel shortage north of Kiev? They have the same maintenance problems at Izyum, how do you think they will get supplies down from burned-out depots in Belgorod with SOF, drones and mines in the way as well as 2000 knocked out trucks?
\nYou are also aware that they ran an accelerated timetable for the spring offensive so they did not have time to build up supplies for longer fighting than a few weeks?
\n\u2014
\nRegarding the thankless role you have taken on you can be very sure that what I write has no impact whatsoever on the outcome of the war, so you are not saving Ukraine\u2019s army from destruction here through your self-appointed role and discussion with me \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nZelensky and the Ukrainian soldiers themselves are quite confident of a win so why shouldn\u2019t we be equally positive, what I write is not the least bit spectacular because that is what Ukraine has stated they are striving for and so far Ukraine has exploited every opening like the worst Napoleon and the greatest opportunity in this war is when the spring offensive now dies out. Why do you think the Russians are starting to fortify Crimea, because it is a stalemate? After all, Crimea is at a safe distance from the front, right?
\n\u2014
\nRussia was to take all of Ukraine, then it was Kharkov, Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast and Odessa and you have access to the same maps as everyone else. The Russians have not achieved any of their strategic goals at all in this war and that alone is quite incredible. That Ukraine then went on the counteroffensive on May 5 is a minor sensation, they beat my guess by 5 days and apparently according to you\/all of you I am too positive..
\n\u2014
\nNow to my highly personal reflection, if anyone thinks the Russians still have the capacity to stop Ukraine from retaking Crimea and Donbass they need to calibrate what information they read or revise the picture they have of the Russian army but this is subjective and we won\u2019t reach a conclusion with such a discussion before Ukraine has retaken Donbass and Crimea so we might as well park it \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:55<\/h4>\n

MRF \u2013 we have no access to up-to-date satellite images with or without IR and FIRMS has proven to be interesting. Nathan Ruser has historically proven to be very accurate and he has access to something we do not.
\n\u2014
\nNow I did a little test and checked Sweden April 30 with 24h setting and sure there are quite a few red dots, then on to May 2 and some red dots left. There you have a good calibration of what FIRMS can detect, right?
\n\u2014
\nNow your take on this is that it is burning bushes and trees?
\nAn exploding artillery shell doesn\u2019t set much on fire unless it hits ammunition or fuel that causes fire. If artillery ignited everything it hit, wouldn\u2019t all of Ukraine be burning or Mariupol and Kharkov, with how much the Russians shelled?
\nIf you watch any film of an MLRS salvo hitting it only causes fire when it hits vehicles or flammable material, otherwise a big poof.
\n\u2014
\nIf you look at Nathan Ruser\u2019s satellite images it\u2019s local fires, something has ignited and is burning out. If it were a forest fire it would have ignited the whole forest since one would assume everything is equally dry, right?
\nA quick look at the weather shows it still looks a bit too wet.
\n\u2014
\nI stand quite firm that with Nathan Ruser\u2019s satellite images FIRMS has proven to be a good measure of where Russian rear areas are being hit. If you have the energy I think you should look around Kherson as it is increasing down there in various places.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:58<\/h4>\n

KLASA, was that directed to me about the start date so offensive operations began +1 week earlier in the Izyum area, April 17 is probably more correct than April 19 but since the question concerned Izyum I backed up a week. This because it was quiet on other front sectors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:40<\/h2>\n

Nathan\u2019s map shows the southern front quite porous, i.e. the Russians do not have full control over large areas south of the front line.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Nrg8000\/status\/1523693759774740482<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:05<\/h2>\n

I think some piece of information got lost but I thought I posted this?
\nPropotopivka is Ukrainian and Zavody disputed, they are located right on the edge of the forest belt that burned around Izyum.
\nSo it\u2019s not just pre-combat in Izyum but they have advanced on the ground and are retaking communities.
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Template:Russo-Ukrainian_War_detailed_map<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:27<\/h3>\n

Right now the Russians must try to protect their supply line down to Izyum and also have a defense of the city Belgorod. Even if Ukraine has no intention of crossing the border, they will troll the Russians as much as they can and taking the chance to leave Belgorod undefended after all the explosions and state of emergency and 25-30km from Ukraine\u2019s border probably not even the Russians would do.
\nBelgorod has probably been a staging area for Izyum and the offensive east of Oskil and if it ties up reserves, those are reserves you can\u2019t send down there.
\n\u2014
\nKharkov was also part of the spring offensive and even if it was not seriously intended now, the Russians probably did not expect that front section to be cleared on Victory Day.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:51<\/h3>\n

Yes, I suspect it is a diversionary maneuver ahead of the southern front offensive but we\u2019ll have to see.
\nAlso strange that they strike from the south\/from below.
\n\u2014
\nSomething I have wondered about those 22 BTGs that have fought there for 4.5 weeks is how intact they are, what was really left down there before the artillery opened up?
\nAccording to the blogger, three regiments have retreated north or been wiped out and I counted it as 5-6 BTGs<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:15<\/h2>\n

Erik14 I wonder if you have more on the 19 BTGs near Belgorod that you wrote about above.
\nAccording to the map we got summarizing BTGs there are 5 near Kharkov and the unit map had 3.
\nUkraine seems to be messing around with two mech brigades up there together with a couple of national guard brigades and some national battalions.
\nIs it 5 or 3, it seems reasonable to have such significant successes but 19 BTGs would be a formidable opponent.
\nAre they positioned further away near Belgorod or have they participated in the fighting?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:41<\/h2>\n

It has stopped exploding at Kherson airport, 19 times I think and the intervals were about as long as it took to rebuild their supplies again one could guess. Have the Russians learned from this and moved rear, staffs and artillery east of the Dnipro do you think?
\nOr maybe it\u2019s just a lot of forest fires increasing in intensity daily down there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:58<\/h3>\n

Around Kherson it is open farmland so advantage to the Russians in defense and their 7 BTGs they haven\u2019t worn out the same way as on other fronts, they are probably dug in and it requires tube artillery with guided ammunition to smoke them out.
\nIt is VDV, marines and guards + spetsnaz and reconnaissance I think so they can probably put up a pretty good fight so far.
\n\u2014
\nThen I thought about these new drones, switchblade for example. If Ukraine can fly in hobby drones and WW1 bomb targets then these should be a serious capability upgrade and they have many of them. They have been in photos in pro-Russian blogs so they are unit-assigned.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:39<\/h2>\n

Maybe already posted but two phone calls with the usual \u2013 stolen weapons, low morale and knife fights in the trenches.
\nThe last sentence was interesting because if the Russians manage to find alcohol and get drunk today, tonight would be a perfect opportunity to do something fun.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/VLrxlUR73QU<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:18<\/h2>\n

This statement from the Russians might explain the +13 ships that someone posted above, probably means more terror bombings, seemed to be corvettes.
\n\u201dThe Russian Defense Ministry announces the deployment of battleships carrying Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:25 Sorry, I\u2019m late into the parade here and trying to read up but understand that Gerasimov was not present? 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