{"id":6237,"date":"2022-05-22T13:27:35","date_gmt":"2022-05-22T11:27:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-05-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T13:20:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T11:20:21","slug":"2022-05-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-05-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-05-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:51<\/h2>\n

Reading pro-Russian forums makes one a bit depressed and I get the feeling that some media are starting to do the same and call the Russians’ attempt to encircle Severodonetsk an existential threat to Ukraine. I think they have missed that the war is ongoing despite Mariupol falling.
\n\u2014
\nWhat could be the weakness of Severodonetsk is that it is territorial defense and NG defending and that they do not have the same quality as Mariupol’s defenders but we will see, so far the Russians are only sniffing around the outskirts of the city. A worst-case scenario is that they fall back west of the river and defend Lysychansk.
\n\u2014
\nThe Russians have not managed to cross the Seversky Donets from the north, that forest belt between Slovyansk \u2013 Severodonetsk that we talked about early on that they would get stuck in, they have existentially big problems getting through. Considering that 1-2 BTGs go up in smoke per bridge-laying attempt, there is probably not much left now, it is probably the 4th or 5th time they have failed and instead go and drown in veritable swarms. Note here that the Russians still have not taken Luhansk Oblast even if the city of Severodonetsk falls, so a worst-case scenario for Ukraine is still that Russia has not achieved its combat goals despite probably the largest mission creep in world history.
\n\u2014
\nThe “breakthrough” at Popasna is 9-10 BTGs in varying condition that have created a very vulnerable bubble for themselves and everything around is open fields. If you look at the maps it is marked red WESTWARD (Russian conquered) up to a large forest belt between two larger communities, you can guess for yourself how that will go \ud83d\ude0a Just because Ukraine has withdrawn from a field does not mean the Russians control the area, I think the lack of conscripts is great among the media here.
\nTo the north they stand in front of Komsomolsk and same there, an excellent defensive position that you have to roll over fields to reach.
\nTo the south I am a bit uncertain but Ukraine can only fall back to the line Svetlodarsk \u2013 Bakhmut without sweating too much. However, such a breakthrough would require offensive capability the Russians do not have and it is in the wrong direction so presumably not much of that will happen and they will stall there.
\n\u2014
\nI get Izyum vibes all over again here, everyone starts running around warning of a Russian breakthrough and then they get stuck at the first defensive line and sit in the trenches sulking. In Izyum it ended with the Russians stopping in the large forest belt around Izyum and then in round two Ukraine really hammered them with first artillery and then SOF and possibly units from the brigades around. And even then Gerasimov was there pointing with the whole hand until he was taken out.
\n\u2014
\nThis little bubble they have created is exposed in three directions and there are two mech brigades and one armored brigade around it. As soon as it is time for tour-de-777 to approach Popasna it will be chaos as usual and then the losses for VDV and marine infantry will be 100% instead of 90% or whatever it was. Moreover, VDV and marine infantry are light on tanks, otherwise there are a couple of motorized BTGs also light on tanks and some BTG with armor. Now they will surely try but most probably understand that light IFVs against Ukrainian tanks in defense can only go one way.
\n\u2014
\nThe conclusion is that we can be confident that Russia will not get Luhansk Oblast and that they are running out of their last BTGs in this attempt. What could happen is that Ukraine opens a new front to relieve pressure and then Zaporizhzhia or Kherson are well positioned but we have not seen that yet and according to Ukraine itself it is mid-June that applies, right?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:13<\/h2>\n

Regarding opening a new front, the 5th Tank Brigade has received 100 of the Polish T72s with night fighting capability. It is behind the Kherson front. All 3 tank battalions should have night fighting capability. You can guess that they have topped up the artillery battalions with some exciting barrels. That is a battering ram as good as any.
\n\u2014
\nIt is free war on steroids behind the southern front but we already knew that. They have knocked out artillery batteries which could have been the fires we have seen behind the southern front east of the Dnieper on FIRMS. I interpreted it as Ukrainian artillery doing the job but they still seem to have struck targets at the front lines together with the air force that does not exist. An active free war behind the southern front is one of the signs that they are preparing for an offensive in that area and above all that it is very porous behind the front lines which means low density of defending units. https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3489148-guerrillas-help-ukrainian-troops-destroy-several-enemy-artillery-systems-in-zaporizhzhia-region.html<\/a>
\n\u2014
\nUkraine’s air force has truly risen from the dead, 12 targets knocked out in one day.
\nhttps:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3489110-ukrainian-air-force-destroys-two-russian-solntsepek-heavy-flamethrower-systems.html<\/a>
\n\u2014
\nMore 777s are on the way and the Slovakian splinter-protected artillery is now deployed. Add to that the huge US package on the way and the UK sending long-range barrels and some other bits and pieces and Ukraine will probably get more than there are Russians to kill here. There is activity at the southern front and Kherson, just not a major offensive but some kind of reconnaissance fight to feel out the Russian positions. If you guess, the 1st Tank Brigade has also received its 100 Polish T72s and is the next battering ram to be completed. Where the others are, who knows but there are a few hundred more.
\n\u2014
\nIf you open up with an artillery battalion on a front section defended by a couple of Russian BTGs that have had their sleep disturbed by the free war for a few weeks and then follow up with a ground attack in the middle of the night it can go really fast. Now they probably have to do it before the number of dark hours is too few but so far it seems to be 21:00 \u2013 05:00.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:19<\/h2>\n

Of course, I forgot that if anyone wonders how Russia is doing, the news going around the world right now is that they have deployed their TERMINATOR company IFV at Severodonetsk. Just yesterday we learned that Ukraine has a potential steamroller of 50 maneuver brigades. Closer to a Wunderwaffe than that you hardly get and then you know that things are bad for the Russians \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:22<\/h3>\n

The two mech brigades in reserve have probably received the suitable IFVs delivered and T72s to their tank battalion so they should also be quite combat capable. Night fighting also works excellently with image intensifiers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:29<\/h3>\n

I guess it is a central part of the upcoming offensive to keep losses down. After all, they have to break through Russians in defense and that is probably best done with artillery and then night fighting and before that causing havoc with the free war. All Polish T72s should have night fighting equipment and image intensifiers are probably available for a couple of brigades now. A bunch of drone videos we have seen have had image intensifiers or IR or whatever it may be.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:38<\/h3>\n

Well, one begins to understand why Germany, France, and Italy are starting to panic and propose peace talks and worry about the nuclear threat and the gas weapon. As has been said many times, they can give up some province in their countries to Russia.
\nI think Putin would be very happy with a port in the English Channel, Cherbourg maybe, in exchange for Crimea.
\n\u2014
\nAlso a sick betrayal of the Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, and a few others who have actively chosen sides here and are on Russia’s ethnic-cleansing list if they get the chance. They also betray Sweden and Finland who have now exposed themselves through NATO membership. I think it bears mentioning and that maybe sanctions should be introduced for individuals who are too involved in oligarch money.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:45<\/h2>\n

I have missed quite a lot about the Russians’ capability reduction but something that has completely escaped me until now is that their fording capacity seems to be zero. They were supposed to run T72s with snorkels and have floating motorized infantry vehicles and something else. Assault boats must reasonably also be included in the engineers’ supplies?
\nThe Seversky Donets is a calm flow with fairly flat riverbanks and one should be able to wade across, so the conclusion can only be that this capacity does not exist?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:38<\/h3>\n

I belong to the pathologically positive group but just want to comment on one thing, Polish tanks went to the 5th Tank Brigade which is fully equipped with T72 night combat equipment and is lurking behind Kherson.
\n\u2014
\nOne can guess that the 1st Tank Brigade and the two mechanized brigades in reserve have all their armored battalions upgraded. Then all four probably have some exciting artillery barrels and a hell of a lot of image intensifiers and drones.
\n\u2014
\nThere are probably 5 artillery battalions with 155mm artillery barrels and these four brigades should be two battering rams of tired Russians in defense.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:51 Reading pro-Russian forums makes one a bit depressed and I get the feeling that some media are starting to 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