{"id":6338,"date":"2022-06-22T09:53:08","date_gmt":"2022-06-22T07:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-06-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T14:18:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T12:18:03","slug":"2022-06-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-06-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-06-22"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:22<\/h2>\n<p>We wrote yesterday that Lysychansk is a veritable fortress with natural defenses to the South and East.<br \/>\nTo the West it is anchored in Vovchovarivka and the only weak direction is northwards, but the Severetsky Donets river the Russians still haven\u2019t managed to cross without drowning. It is also possible to drive on dirt roads now during the summer, so the main highways are not decisive for combat until the rains start.<br \/>\nAccording to the Twitter generals, Ukraine seems to have conducted a tactical retreat from Zolote, and pro-Russian forums will make this sound like Stalingrad has been taken, and our media will call the small town a \u201cdecisive city captured\u201d as usual.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIt will cost the Russians many BTGs to push into Lysychansk from the Southeast and it will cost them many BTGs to try to cross the Severetsky Donets at any place again. Now Lysychansk is just a defensive position on the map and even that city can be retreated from without changing anything, but if you look at how Ukraine has acted so far, they will probably defend the city until there is a real risk of encirclement. Zolote has been attacked from three directions for quite a long time now and there Ukraine has pushed hard until it was time to run like mad along a ditch to slip out.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAgainst this, Ukraine has exchanged successes at Kherson, which is still largely under wraps, we discuss the Twitter generals\u2019 little one-liners, but a confirmation is that deepstatemap has updated that Kyselivka is now blue team. Then Ukraine has parked itself in the valley which is 10 km from Kherson, the place the scout recorded his video message from a week ago. After that it is open fields and the Russian main defensive line, so it\u2019s not just about pressing the gas and driving into Chornobaivka = time. There are also rumors of Russian counterattacks, large Russian losses, and Russian reserves being sent to Kherson. If you interpret FIRMS, it is very active all over the Kherson front still.<br \/>\nIt also seems that deep strikes are now being made over at Crimea, SOF, stay behind, or long-range weapons or all of the above?<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nI don\u2019t quite understand Zaporizhzhia but it seems to be Ukrainian local counteroffensives where they can and active Ukrainian artillery. We have guessed that Vasylivka and Polohy are in the way of Ukraine\u2019s big march towards Melitopol and if the Russians have gone on the defensive, they will probably take out everything they can with everything they have, even wing grenades from commercial drones, and press with small local counteroffensives. Not as lively on FIRMS but it is reported daily.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>11:59<\/h3>\n<p>What the hell, I just checked before I wrote so he updated now \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nWarMonitor has kind of emerged as a Twitter general who updates often now and he was supposed to go after Kherson again tomorrow. What we do know, however, is that the Russians have conducted counterattacks along the M-14 and westwards so maybe things have moved again in the wrong direction. Unfortunately, no one else has that as blue team so nothing to spin further on\u2026<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nSpeaking of which, have you seen the huge fire north of Tahynke, a bit northwest of Kherson?<br \/>\nRiver valley and no buildings and it\u2019s completely bright red. You can hope it\u2019s grilled BTG but now that we\u2019re entering summer, there will probably be forest fires too.<br \/>\nRussian defense in Ischenke is also having a rough time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:10<\/h2>\n<p>This is CanadianUkrainian but it\u2019s basically how I also see the situation, the window is now and not in a few months to take Kherson and Melitopol. I\u2019m less sure about the retreat thing, preferably deny the Russians retreat over the Dnipro and then cut off a line running North-South through Melitopol in defensible terrain. Then you can calmly take out everything the Russians try to bring into Crimea over the bridge at Kerch or by sea and shut off the water again in the middle of midsummer.<br \/>\nSure, you can of course let all the Russians retreat down to Crimea and then starve them out over time if you want, but it would be easier to divide them into groups, I think, instead of pushing everyone ahead of you.<br \/>\nIt\u2019s absolutely boiling now behind the southern front, down in Crimea and at Kherson, we see both fires and get reports of neat shots to the back of the neck and car bombs daily.<br \/>\nIf there is any weapon system that has grown since the start of the war, it is Ukraine\u2019s long-range patrols\/SOF\/stay behind\/scouting and they have the latest image intensifiers and silenced weapons.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\n\u201dNow, a couple of cents here from yours truly.<br \/>\nThe #Russian plan in a nutshell is to take #Donbass, and then relocate all their forces South, because they\u2019re still hoping to take #Odesa. That\u2019s a fact. So, our window of opportunity to take the South is while most of their forces are tied down in the East. They have been moving forces from #Zaporizhia to #Donbass, and this whole flank is weakened. The way to take #Melitopol and #Kherson is through partial encirclement, allowing the Enemy a corridor to escape. Fighting in the cities themselves with civvies around is not what we want to be doing. We need to consolidate our counterattacks and hit their flanks as well as their rear, with the help of partisans and infiltrators (giggity). Greatest salute to our boys in the East, stiff upper lip and pass the ammunition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:15<\/h3>\n<p>Yeah, you were there sabotaging as fast as you could \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nNow we have to endure pro-Russian triumph at the eastern front for a while and then I have probably written every day that it will be slow now at Kherson since they have reached the main defensive line and that it is Khakovka they will reach first but we haven\u2019t seen any of that.<br \/>\nUnfortunately, the fires in the villages closer to Khakovka on FIRMS have stopped, which is a bit sad because it means they are no longer being shelled by artillery, whichever side it was that shelled them.<br \/>\nUkraine really needs its chess move here and apparently they are investing heavily in it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:20<\/h3>\n<p>Taking a big step back, it was actually completely free of red dots on FIRMS near Kherson before the offensive started there. That was the first thing you checked in the morning to figure out when the offensive would start.<br \/>\nNow it\u2019s completely bright red everywhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:33<\/h2>\n<p>We have talked about this before that Ukraine\u2019s list of weapons is to throw out the Russians and secure its entire land border, 40 brigades are 160 BTGs, put that in perspective against what the Russians have left\/gather. What they have gotten so far is enough for about halfway, i.e. the offensive we see now. Isn\u2019t it XSI33 with his cryptic \u201conly one country can deliver\u201d :)\u2019<br \/>\nUkraine needs a few models in large numbers instead of this mosaic which is a mechanic\u2019s and logistician\u2019s nightmare. They will probably be used up in the current battles but with a bit of Ukrainian home fixing you can probably get 5-6 months out of them at least?<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\n\u201dneeds to equip 40 brigades with 4,000 infantry fighting vehicles, 1,200 tanks, &amp; almost 2,200 artillery systems to cover the entire front line, where active fighting is taking place, Volodymyr Karpenko explained\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>14:33<\/h3>\n<p>It\u2019s quite distasteful how Western Europe doesn\u2019t want to hurt Putin\u2019s feelings when the countries along our eastern border are actually preparing for war. Finland has every reason to be worried because there are reasons for Russia to consider opening a second front somewhere and if they don\u2019t get Belarus on board somehow, Finland is close at hand.<br \/>\nThat\u2019s not to say they will get more than a few kilometers across the border but the risk is high and Finland is naturally prepared.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>15:19<\/h2>\n<p>This is both good and bad at the same time, bad because Putin has more BTGs to throw in but good that they are all the way up at the northern front when it is at the southern front and Kherson where they would be needed. I can only interpret this as Russian command believing they can hold Kherson and the southern front with what they have, which is perfect that they are not listening to Girkin. If these 20,000 soldiers and equipment had gone into defense at the southern front and Kherson, it would probably have been difficult for Ukraine to advance, but now the Russians are going to do a Ukraine and open a second front.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3512525-russia-keeps-amassing-troops-at-ukraine-border-forms-3rd-army-corps.html\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3512525-russia-keeps-amassing-troops-at-ukraine-border-forms-3rd-army-corps.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>16:55<\/h2>\n<p>The southern front is starting to slowly emerge as interesting in time now.<br \/>\nThere is a rather dull natural defensive line from Vasylivka straight east that you almost have to avoid.<br \/>\nSince Ukraine has Novoandrivka, they have gotten \u201cbehind\u201d the natural defensive line that goes through Polohy and westward already, so that line is well passed.<br \/>\nDown to Tokmak, it is possible to \u201chop village\u201d at night and push forward village by village, which is exactly what Ukraine is doing. It almost feels like the terrain is tougher than at Kherson or at least the same, and at the southern front, the Russians have been digging their trenches for a long time, probably deeper than the usual 20 centimeters and with crafted wooden stands for the vodka bottle.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAt Kherson, they got behind the Russian defenses at Davydiv Brid and then the Russians had to rush reserves there and weaken other front sections, then Ukraine reached there as well, which is what we see now. That breakthrough has been very neat because it has forced the Russians onto the highway as easy targets.<br \/>\nAt the southern front, it is more of a defense in depth and no real way to slip \u201cbehind\u201d them, it is defense line after defense line. The artillery brigades are there for a reason and you probably cannot make any mechanized breakthroughs, so it will be the usual type of fighting where you work forward village by village.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIt is also not possible to cross the Dnipro north of Khakovka with a pontoon bridge, the river is wide and a pontoon bridge of that length would swallow all of Ukraine\u2019s bridging material and then be washed away at the first Russian intervention. Ferries and boats with SOF and infantry might work with a hell of an artillery screen and air cover on Ukraine\u2019s own side of the Dnipro. It could be considered to do an Izyum and send over lots of infantry for free fighting across the Dnipro north of Khakovka. With as many NLAWs and ammunition as they can carry and boats in shuttle traffic.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nUkraine is probably at Zolota Balka and some stretch must be as poorly guarded as up at Davydiv Brid and they can accelerate across. Now that must be combined with everything else in time because if the Russians can just send a couple of BTGs there and push over the bridgehead, it will be unfortunate. However, it would be a re-run of Davydiv Brid and force the Russians onto the highway to plug the hole within comfortable artillery, air, helicopter, and drone range for Ukraine.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nUkraine is not known for sitting on their hands, first they struck with the surprise at Davydiv Brid and when all the Russians rushed there it got lively over at Kherson. Then when the Russians started emptying Melitopol and pulling back a bit from the southern front (very ambiguous information about what they are pulling back and what they are reinforcing with\u2026) Ukraine started pressing there.<br \/>\nThe Crimean canal goes from Khakovka straight south and is a defensive line in the making but just in the area between it and up to the defensive lines at Vasylivka \u2013 East there is probably low density of Russian units. If you can combine that with a serious tempo increase in stay-behind\/infiltrated SOF, it would be very neat. One can hope that the guy who came up with Davydiv Brid now has such respect in the command that his somewhat crazy idea to cross the Dnipro with boats gets approved. We have not yet seen the 45th Air Assault Brigade in combat and down there someone NG brigade should be able to handle the guard duty together with territorial forces.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>17:31<\/h3>\n<p>Addition, between Melitopol \u2013 Tokmak there is a very strong natural defensive line for defense eastward.<br \/>\nNorth of that there are some villages and natural formations you can anchor the front in, so if Ukraine could seize Melitopol it would be almost impossible for the Russians to break that blockade of Crimea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>17:50<\/h3>\n<p>Maybe we should start calling them partisans instead?<br \/>\nAnyway, they are really stepping up behind the Kherson front and behind the southern front.<br \/>\nI\u2019m starting to wonder how large the partisan units can be because they are impossible to defend against.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>19:03<\/h3>\n<p>Yes, when it is quiet and sneaky, it is boiling fiercely, I have also felt that and something bigger is going on at Kherson and the southern front.<br \/>\nNow it has been so quiet at Izyum that I completely forgot about it StefP but it is also an area where Ukraine is stealing ground and then letting the Russians take it back with heavy losses, that forest area west of the city of Izyum is known for having wiped out entire armies that just disappear in the forests \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>21:26<\/h2>\n<p>The latest from Gammelsvenskby. Unfortunately, it cannot be interpreted sufficiently, west of the village could be all the way over at Kherson for example but if you read the last three updates it seems to be getting closer.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe get short, sporadic reports from Gammalsvenskby. It is relatively calm. There is electricity, water, and food. There are skirmishes north and west of the village so there are many overflights by Russian fighter jets. Yesterday there was a strong explosion and a glow was seen in the sky. It is difficult to keep in touch with loved ones. A new mast is said to have been set up in the village, for those who have Russian mobile subscriptions. There are lots of potatoes to harvest, but no one to sell to. A couple of smaller batches have gone out, but at very low prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>11:22 We wrote yesterday that Lysychansk is a veritable fortress with natural defenses to the South and East. To the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arkiv01","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2022-06-22 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-06-22-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-06-22 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"11:22 We wrote yesterday that Lysychansk is a veritable fortress with natural defenses to the South and East. 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