{"id":6342,"date":"2022-06-25T09:59:46","date_gmt":"2022-06-25T07:59:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-06-25-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T14:18:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T12:18:33","slug":"2022-06-25-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-06-25-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-06-25"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:57<\/h2>\n

Wow, they really went all out with rockets today, how many could they have left? Now we have started to see that the Russians are running out of key personnel\/expert competence, pilots was the latest and then they threw this year’s conscripts into Izyum with enormous losses. They also have an armored training school behind the southern front which means they pair personnel and armor on site.
\nIt probably isn’t at the top of Lukas’s wish list to give away all his armor and artillery ammunition to Russia, especially with Poland looming over his border fence, so it must be something the Russians really want.
\n\u2014
\nRussian air continues to rampage in Kherson \u2013 Southern front, daily updates and the daily lottery numbers are probably half in Kherson \u2013 Southern front at least which is positive. The artillery is also doing well and now at least 2 HIMARS have started working in Kherson. Access to the right ammunition must be the bottleneck since there are now 4 of them and presumably endless target data.
\n\u2014
\nThe unfortunate thing is that the Russians have overrun Vovchoyarivka according to WarMonitor which would be unfortunate\u2026 I wrote a bit wrong but the anchor on Lysychansk’s western flank defense is Verkhn\u2019okam\u2019yanka (tricky name) and Topolivka, and if they start to falter it’s a full retreat from Lysychansk. It would be really sad if Lysychansk doesn’t become a flytrap that grills Russian BTGs during the summer without them taking the city by technical knockout. If one guesses, there will be a Ukrainian counterattack to retake Vovchoyarivka or at least stabilize that flank.
\nStrategically it means nothing as the blog often writes, Ukraine falls back to the Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut line in the first step and then we have Slovyansk\/Kramatorsk and down to the stalemate line as the next defense line.
\n\u2014
\nSvatove, as Argus has explained to us, is a supply hub for the units north of the pocket\/bow north of Horlivka and thus a twelve-pointer \ud83d\ude42 One can guess that the Russians’ all-out rocket war was a reaction to their largest ammunition depot going up in smoke? Above all, they have shifted supply routes away from Belgorod \u2013 Vovchansk \u2013 Kupiansk \u2013 Izyum so Svatove may have grown even more in importance?
\nIt also seems reasonable that the other two HIMARS systems have been moved west of Izyum in Ukrainian-controlled territory, there is a lot of forest there where they can sneak forward if they now have 70 km range or Tochka U which they no longer need to save. They can of course be down towards Slovyansk as well but these systems must have air cover and EW protection. As soon as they fire, the Russians know the geographic area and can send aircraft and helicopters hoping to find and take them out on the way and the closer to the front they are, the higher the risk. These systems should logically be the primary targets for the Russians and worth a couple of aircraft losses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03<\/h2>\n

Just flew past a tweet recently that the 1st Tank Brigade had sent a battalion to the southern front, it was a video of M113s and fresh T72s so if one guesses they have been newly equipped. There are also two mechanized brigades in reserve and the two maneuver brigades that have guard duty at the northern front. Now the Russians have started swinging the sword up north again with 15,000 men but if they can get some maneuver units from these 700,000 mobilized there are five brigades in reserve of battle-hardened, rested and newly equipped units. There is also the 45th Air Assault Brigade down south but it is probably earmarked for the southern front.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:08<\/h3>\n

Yes exactly, it was almost as if he was dangling his feet from a gas station, his sons stood in body armor and looked grim with the latest AK version outside the palace. Then it must be just as Lars Celander writes that the worse it goes for Russia the less threatening Lukas appears since much of his power comes from Putin’s support. He will probably flee to Russia with a truck convoy full of gold as usual and the US stays active and gets a Western-friendly leader elected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:26<\/h3>\n

I have also really thought that “taking back to the border” with a Russian who will jump on Ukraine again as soon as they can is completely pointless, you have to have your defense along natural obstacles, but not too far into Ukrainian territory.
\nThe alternative is to have enough artillery and maintain a 30 km demilitarized zone on Russian soil by force (outside the Russians’ artillery range to Ukrainian territory) if needed.
\nActually, it would probably be quite neat to swap Ukrainian land for Russian and then have the Donets and the piece of the Don as the natural defense line \ud83d\ude42 A sign would probably be if Ukraine heads towards Mariupol instead of Melitopol.
\n\u2014
\nBut what an enormous undertaking to attempt, almost like Hitler’s idea that Rommel would meet up with the German Caucasus offensive\u2026 though probably completely unexpected, starting from the south and taking Rostov-on-Don in a blitzkrieg.
\nRivers have at least proven to be insurmountable obstacles for the Russians.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42<\/h4>\n

Maybe I should add that the above is not the primary scenario \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46<\/h2>\n

If you look at Uawardata you understand why it stopped at Davydiv Brid but started moving at Kherson because the Russians moved quite a few BTGs to plug the hole at Davydiv Brid and towards Kryvyi Rih.
\nFeels almost like Kherson is the weak point now.
\nhttps:\/\/www.uawardata.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:55<\/h3>\n

It should logically be these movements that Ukrainian air has struck and inflicted losses on along the road.
\nAs said, the Davydiv Brid crossing was very neat. There were 2 BTGs there initially and now they have 6 there who have had to drive over open fields on the road.
\nIt also seems to be 17 BTGs total at Kherson now but those down at Khakovka were empty shells not long ago and are five in number.
\n\u2014
\nIf one can manage to deny these units retreat over the Dnieper it would be a huge scalp but one also understands why Ukraine’s +30 BTGs don’t have it so easy if there are 17 Russian BTGs in defense and this also doesn’t count the DPR rebels, Syrians, TikTok Chechens, etc. I believe Ukrainian air, army aviation and artillery are quite dominant here otherwise they would have had trouble advancing at all but Davydiv Brid was the move that got the front moving.
\nThe Russians have also reinforced with an artillery brigade at Kherson.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:09<\/h3>\n

If one may speculate further, the front between Donetsk \u2013 Horlivka might be a bit weak now and from time to time we get reports that Ukraine has retaken some village there which is positive. Another weak point seems to be towards Mariupol.
\n\u2014
\nSubject SUPER-speculation so I flag it enough but if one could roll in and retake the old stalemate line at Mariupol and manage to defend east and west it would be as big a chess move as Melitopol. Now that battalion from the 1st Tank Brigade was sent to Vuhledar which was a somewhat strange destination but there is not much activity there.
\nIf one super-speculates further, Ukraine would then tie up units in Kherson and then at Vasylivka, Tokmak and Polohy to then strike much further east with their heavy reserves. What speaks against that is that then you are under Russian air and cannot just roll around with armor as you want.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:11<\/h4>\n

Provided that Ukraine does not have an operational air reserve that we are unaware of?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:14<\/h3>\n

I believe that if they have to choose, they will choose to defend the city of Kherson, but then they have to send their BTGs there and over a single point at Darivka, making it a good target for Ukrainian air force and army aviation which seem to be operating double shifts.
\nMy thought is that if Ukraine can just lock the bridges over the Dnipro, they don’t really need to take anything at all, just deny the Russians retreat and defend themselves. Then the combat objectives have been achieved, I think. If they also get across the Dnipro themselves, that would be a nice bonus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:20<\/h4>\n

There is a decent natural defensive line westward between Mariupol \u2013 Volnovakha.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:45<\/h2>\n

Here you have this week\u2019s strongest statement.
\nIf he says \u201cbeginning of August\u201d then we have probably learned that it will start earlier than that.
\nThere isn\u2019t much that can be misinterpreted here, before the year ends Ukraine will have retaken all its territory, period.
\nhttps:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3514884-defense-intel-chief-before-yearend-active-hostilities-will-decrease-virtually-to-nothing-we-will-return-to-1991-borders.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
15:10<\/h5>\n

Yeah, I usually have to run over there and check when you\u2019ve written something too \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:35<\/h2>\n

Micke, read your final comment about mechanized combat the day before yesterday, quite late\u2026
\nCompletely agree that movement would be negative for the Russians since they rely so much on their artillery and when it becomes fixed lines they can just hammer away. Just wanted to finish with that \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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