{"id":6391,"date":"2022-07-01T08:25:32","date_gmt":"2022-07-01T06:25:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-07-01-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T15:37:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T13:37:43","slug":"2022-07-01-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-07-01-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-07-01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:02<\/h3>\n

Kazakhstan, if you are to go by their president’s\/leader’s statements in St Petersburg. It is probably high on everyone’s list to get the obedient provinces and places moving, and the revolution in Belarus was already somewhat underway before it was crushed, so the opposition is just waiting for their chance.
\n\u2014
\nIt was mentioned earlier in the thread that Japan would start operating landing ships in international waters off Vladivostok to deploy troops there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:23<\/h2>\n

That 2S22 that Ukraine used to clear Snake Island can fire 155mm ammunition, so I measured the distance and got +33km if you stand at the water’s edge on the mainland and out to Snake Island.
\n\u2014
\nA quick Google says that the 777 can shoot 30km with rocket-assisted ammunition and 40km with Excalibur.
\nNow it seems the Wikipedia page for the 2S22 has been updated and it says 60km with rocket-assisted ammunition.
\nI interpreted it as hits all over the island “26 times” and there should probably have been maybe 3-6 targets on the island. If they had used Excalibur, every shot would probably have hit?
\n\u2014
\nWhat I’m curious about is what ammunition they might have used for NATO standard that reached +30km. Is there any ammunition that Wikipedia says has a 60km range, or did they use rocket-assisted ammunition and just managed to lob them in, or was it simply Excalibur raining down on the island?
\nBecause all other artillery with NATO standard can use the same.
\n\u2014
\nIt’s also an interesting choice of artillery; according to pro-Russian forums, the first mission with the 777 was knocked out, nothing confirmed from the blue side. I guessed it was a first guest appearance of HIMARS, but maybe they transported a splinter-protected 2S22 there, which can move long distances on roads by itself and has some terrain capability.
\n\u2014
\nAnyway, it would be fun if Ukraine sneaked in a Harpoon and sank some ship before the Russians realized it, but they probably keep some watch on the island one would guess. The newest version almost seems to reach the port on Crimea, or at least Russian ships have to hug the shore when they go out. I’m sitting here wondering if Ukraine can get something else that can deny the Russian navy its naval base on Crimea and all the water west of Crimea, but it’s a small damn island and the Russians still have weapons systems with long range and decent accuracy, so it would probably have to be shoot and scoot if you try something, a fast boat with the engine running and then you don’t wait for a hit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:36<\/h3>\n

Yes, as Ekan writes, the Chechens had to handle it for a while, bullet in the back at the first sign of retreat.
\nIt’s incredible that life in the Russian army has stood still between 1941 and today.
\nI’ve also thought about what happens to the Russian prisoners of war who were exchanged, because Stalin believed in WW2 that the prisoners had been turned by the West, so it was just as well to send all prisoners of war to the Gulag. Highly decorated officers likewise, since they could pose a threat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42<\/h3>\n

One still hopes that Ukraine pulled a double bluff like with Severodonetsk and will strike when they’ve tricked the Russians, but the line west of Lysychansk must hold. Google Maloriazantseve and Topolivka and they are a bit dull right behind Lysychansk, not much retreat route out of the city soon. It probably boils down to the same kind of rational decision as with Mariupol, is it worth X hundred dead to restore the horseshoe or do we fall back to Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:49<\/h3>\n

That armament seems capable of knocking out Russian tanks?
\n140 of them would be quite a potential addition then, a little special but it could probably work quite well.
\n\u2014
\nNo, before Sweden gets its act together and sends CV90s, the US has probably promised everything and more in its lend-lease with two models so they are no longer needed. This is when it would make a difference on the battlefield before thousands of MBTs and IFVs show up.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:55<\/h3>\n

Useful idiot trolls will just take a Russian loss as proof that Sweden and the USA are Nazis too and continue their lives in their parents’ basements. Those who are in Russia with a salary should reasonably start to think a little about whether they bet on the right horse, but then the situation is already such that they can’t get any other job and can’t emigrate either, so they have to keep writing posts through Google Translate.
\nThere was a discussion in a forum about naval mines where a couple of users suddenly started talking about mines, so sure, there are guys with Google Translate everywhere, even on Swedish forums.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:00<\/h3>\n

Yes, then it could have been that, and as Ben Dover says, 40km no problemo.
\nI was mostly curious if it was something special, then you want it to be something they sneak in, but it seems to have worked perfectly with their own 155mm then.
\n\u2014
\nErik14, yes I measured from about the shoreline and it could probably have been a kilometer further in, otherwise they would get stuck at least.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:29<\/h2>\n

Now this is just stating the obvious, but as soon as other Twitter users go silent about Kherson, CanadianUkrainian does too. According to their own statement, there are four fighting on site and one in back office in Canada, so he should be able to get some inside tips about what’s going on, you would think, name-drop some interesting place.
\n\u2014
\nWarMonitor has updated about Kherson, which is highly unofficial and at the twitter generals level, but according to him there are still fights over a couple of interesting places, Snihurivka, Kyselivka, towards Stanislav, the crossing at Davydiv Brid and then in the northeast where it seems to be moving a bit. The question at Kherson, I think, is how much the Russians lose on the road when they roll forward towards the combat zones. Considering what we’ve seen of army aviation, air and artillery, my guess is they take quite a beating.
\nWe’ve read about Russian reserves moving towards Kherson in at least three waves, the last was four days of vehicles rolling west through Melitopol. They might be trying to stabilize the front, but at sky-high losses, now it has to be a thread truth \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nNow maybe someone who understands FIRMS can explain why it stops at June 30 and you can’t go to July 1?
\nIt seems at least that FIRMS supports that it’s quite lively towards the NW direction and we’ve gotten reports of a couple of settlements captured there.
\n\u2014
\nThe southern front is quite quiet, maybe someone has information about that area. FIRMS suggests some activity down towards Tokmak but it’s not all-out war.
\n\u2014
\nI’ve stopped counting blown-up Russian ammunition depots but there have been quite a few the past week and I think HIMARS hardly takes a break so it probably continues. At some point, we should be able to see less artillery on various front sections and theoretically that could be what we see on FIRMS with fewer fires?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:55<\/h3>\n

Now the first of July came for me too last in the thread. I definitely think we have seen sabotage down in Crimea as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:01<\/h2>\n

I think I see that in Kherson, Ukraine first attacked at Davydiv Brid and shook the cage a bit so the Russians flew around. When the Russians rushed in reserves from Kherson and from the northeast, Ukraine struck in Kherson instead.
\nNow it seems to be really lively over in the northeast.
\nIf one may guess, the Russians do not have enough and have to rush in reserves all the time, on the highway, exposed to air and army aviation. Ukraine’s tactic, whether deliberate or adapted to the circumstances, is to pound one place until all the Russians have run there and then attack a whole other front section. Davydiv Brid set everything in motion.
\n\u2014
\nTo me, this means that the Russians do not have enough units and to plug one hole they make themselves weak at another point. Ukraine, on the other hand, can press along the entire Kherson front. If we follow this, there will soon be a serious attempt from Davydiv Brid (or the forest area west of it) to push down to Khakovka.
\n\u2014
\nThe big question that keeps me awake at night is, of course, how much damage the Russians take during their endless regroupings on the highway. Quite a lot must be the answer, since Ukraine’s air and army aviation are active, and as soon as they regroup somewhere, the USA knows it and target data goes to Ukraine, which ramps up its various versions of howitzers and now also HIMARS.
\n\u2014
\nThen I don\u2019t know if this has already been discussed, but with HIMARS at Kherson, the Russians are basically denied retreat over the three bridges already today. If the Russians start to retreat, they get blasted where they stand today. Then we have all-in from the air and army aviation, so I almost think one can already say that Russian retreat over the Dnipro is denied or at least will cost them grilled BTGs in large numbers. That\u2019s good \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nLogically, there should also be an attempt on the southern front, Tokmak or Volnovakha.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:04<\/h3>\n

The band-aid Lysychansk is removed, have been sulking for 3-4 days about it but now it\u2019s done. If they had had strf90 this would never have happened, is my thread truth \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nNow it\u2019s lively north of there towards Siversk and Slovyansk, so Kherson and the southern front still have a chance for a chess move.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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