{"id":6409,"date":"2022-07-16T11:25:31","date_gmt":"2022-07-16T09:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-07-16-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T15:42:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T13:42:39","slug":"2022-07-16-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-07-16-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-07-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

17:44<\/h3>\n

The best thing about Archer and HIMARS is that they can quickly move out of a geographic area.
\nThe Russians will always know which area a platform is moving in and will occasionally take a chance that aircraft will spot them. The slower tracked vehicles have to move in cover\/protection and have camouflage, etc.
\nFirst, the goal is to get away from counter-battery\/long-range weapons.
\nThen, not to be detected by aircraft.
\n\u2014
\nNow the 300km ammunition solves that because then all systems can stay at a proper distance from the front, you don\u2019t need to move any forward to hit in the darkest Donbass but can launch rockets from the west of the Dnieper under the Ukrainian Air Force umbrella.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:45<\/h2>\n

There has been some talk about combating Russian air defenses now but not much in the lottery line, the administrator is still on the beach and updates sporadically.
\nIt is appropriate ahead of an offensive to gain more space for own air force and to prevent larger long-range weapons from being shot down.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:56<\/h2>\n

Speculation, we know that the Russians have sent quite a few reinforcements to Kherson recently, at least 4 BTGs probably a couple more. These convoys on the way are easy targets for aircraft and army aviation and now we have HIMARS.
\nI don\u2019t know if all are heading into Kherson and if the Ukrainian Air Force is too dense but as soon as they approach Davydiv Brid it will be grilled BTG. I can\u2019t quite figure this out because it could just as well have been grilled BTG at the crossings or east of the Dnieper with today\u2019s artillery range and how the air force moves.
\n\u2014
\nCould there be some idea behind pulling as many BTGs as possible to the western side of the Dnieper?
\nI don\u2019t know but I don\u2019t think there is an obvious reason not to strike the reinforcements as early as possible on the road except that it might mean the Russians reconsider and retreat to the eastern side of the Dnieper and go on the defense.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:56<\/h3>\n

As soon as they move into UFA it whistles, we see these clusters of fires all the time and then during the attacks so it\u2019s not that Ukraine is not fighting them, just that they don\u2019t do it as early as they reasonably should be able to.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:33<\/h3>\n

Yes, it\u2019s starting to get a bit too much to sit passive and there are surely discussions about appropriate escalation. Now the 300km, F-16, Leo2 and IFV are on the way in along with all the ammunition they can carry. The Ukrainian Air Force will probably form a no-fly zone over western Ukraine soon if not already. They have the army so the Poles are hardly needed but if Lukas goes in they will probably be quick.
\nThey are training Ukraine\u2019s army etc. The West\u2019s SOF probably have the most overtime pay ever.
\nI am convinced that if Ukraine just gets decent MBTs and IFVs this crap will be over around Christmas.
\n\u2014
\nThen comes phase 2, demilitarized zone, sanctions and all that and trying to get Ukraine back to a normal state while they have an ENORMOUS army along their land border.
\n\u2014
\nThe absolutely most important thing here is to give the Ukrainians a welcome, otherwise we have the EU\u2019s new dominant mafia operating throughout the area within 2-3 years. If they feel respect and get hope for the future, Ukraine can become one of the dominant countries in the EU and they will become economically very strong, they have excellent industry and agriculture and now also a world-class army.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:47<\/h2>\n

The Bottom Is Reached feels a bit like now, it can only get better. I have also thought about the post-war. Ikea has put Sweden on the map and other things we have done that have been good.
\nUkraine was kind of cheap labor and a corrupt old Soviet state living in Russia\u2019s shadow.
\nThe marketing they have gotten through this war cannot be bought with money.
\n-I really try not to slip up here but if I do I will apologize immediately.
\nThe EU will feel that Ukraine is a full member pretty much immediately, even if it takes time, and Ukrainians in the EU will have about Polish level. Ask Bulgaria and Romania how it feels not to have that. The Roma EU migrants have almost cemented how people see a Romanian.
\nTheir arms industry is a winner and EVERYONE, absolutely EVERYONE will buy Made in Ukraine in the next 10-15 years.
\nThat flag will be like a Che Guevara T-shirt roughly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:27<\/h2>\n

Yes, that\u2019s correct. What I tried to write was how the country was perceived by the outside world, not how it is\/was. Those with insight like you, those with Ukrainian family and those whose companies have offices in Ukraine know exactly how it is.
\nThey have, as I wrote, good heavy industry, defense industry, agriculture, electricity production and a good age distribution of the population. I forgot IT.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

17:44 The best thing about Archer and HIMARS is that they can quickly move out of a geographic area. 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