{"id":6476,"date":"2022-08-07T10:59:33","date_gmt":"2022-08-07T08:59:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-07-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T16:26:53","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T14:26:53","slug":"2022-08-07-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-07-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-07"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:17<\/h2>\n<p>Now that we&#8217;ve had another round of atrocities with castrations and heads on spikes, and Amnesty International timed their &#8220;support-Russia&#8221; report maximally wrong, I thought about how it would have looked if Alternative A had happened, the one Scholtz et al. hoped for so much in the first weeks when instead of getting angry at Russia, they got mad at Zelensky.. The latest today was probably the Guardian article from the female prisoner, I wonder if the pregnant woman and her unborn child survived, probably not.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIn Alternative A, the Russians would have rolled over eastern Ukraine at least and maybe with Belarus&#8217;s help, and if they had done everything right from the start, they could have broken the country&#8217;s back. But then the FSB would have had to pay out the bribes and not steal them themselves and a whole lot more. It didn&#8217;t turn out that way, but for the sake of this exercise. This was exactly what the hesitant leaders in Europe hoped for, that it would all just disappear and everything would return to &#8220;normal&#8221;.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nRussian psyops would have bombarded the media with rosy sunshine stories and now that the war was over, the defectors and fifth columnists in the free West could act without real threats, &#8220;you&#8217;re exaggerating, Russia is a balanced liberator, conspiracy theorists, why would they murder anyone, Ukraine welcomes them with open arms&#8221; and some channels had written about the abuses but no one cared, the people had continued to sleep in the free world&#8217;s countries. AB had gone back to character assassinating LW and Kragh and the immigration issue and the electricity shortage had once again become the number one topic of discussion.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIn a watertight media blackout, exactly these abuses we now see would have played out, probably even more organized and on a larger scale. There is clearly a hatred against Ukrainians that is fueled with the biggest bellows that could be found, a long indoctrination and then medals to the worst killer units. I don&#8217;t know if you read the FSB letters, authentic or not, but they wrote that in two years the FSB had cleared out the entire leading and threatening layer in Ukraine and had Moscow loyalists in all positions. After that, Ukraine would be a raw material colony and cheap labor for Russia. Now the resistance had been enormous so millions had been imprisoned, tortured and murdered over time here.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThe UN, RC, Amnesty and all the other sh1t organizations that receive enormous grants had visited well-cleaned camps where smiling prisoners willingly said they were treated like gods and the reports had been that Russia probably treats its prisoners better than Sweden treats its migrants. No one asked why a million people were in these camps, which were actually more like spa baths than prisons and the food was like at a better hotel.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nOver time, Ukrainians had become some kind of pariahs like the Chechens, those who fled to Europe had been forced into prostitution and crime and formed a new Yugoslav mafia with hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened foot soldiers. (If Ukraine is not treated damn well after this war, we are probably heading towards that is a thought I have, the EU should open its arms and give Ukraine hope after this enormous trauma).<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nInstead, the entire free West has stood united behind Ukraine and they now have a reputation as a future EU member and the free world&#8217;s defense of our eastern border. Everyone will shake hands with a Ukrainian and look away when a Russian comes.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nSo what made all the difference, well that Ukraine wanted peace but prepared for war and that the USA took no chances. The USA we all love to hate has once again with the world&#8217;s best infantry saved the free West because of course Russia would not have stopped at Ukraine if they had stepped on the gas. Now instead there will be colorful bath ducks with a tired Russian inside that are flushed out of the Dnipro river mouth and into the Black Sea until the air has hissed out of the cheapest bath duck that money could buy and the now quite worried tired Russian really regrets that they sat sniffing glue instead of taking those swimming lessons in elementary school.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>13:08<\/h2>\n<p>When HIMARS started up, some in the thread said that the Russians would move the depots into kindergartens, schools and other critical infrastructure, which is exactly what they did, nuclear power plants.<br \/>\nWe probably need something international to take care of these nuclear power plants because there is actually a risk that the Russians, upon retreat, simply blow them up as revenge. If they have crossed all red lines as calmly as they have done so far, there is no reason to believe they would not blow up the dam at Khakovka and the nuclear power plants they control today.<br \/>\nYou can guess how the aftermath will be if we have 5 Chernobyls raining down over Europe at the same time, no need for nuclear weapons after that.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nI think here that it probably requires a black ops team of the best who are prepared to take heavy losses to go in and secure these places and then unfortunately they also have to be protected against artillery \u2013 only the USA can manage that.<br \/>\nYou must then seek international support to protect these places, the UN can be ignored but it would be good if you can ensure that China is on board with the proposal and that it is on signed paper.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAfter all, this is about all of Europe and the Russians have no brakes at all so it&#8217;s a bit like a drug addict fiddling with the suitcase with the red button to all the nuclear weapons, anything can happen and he has already started loosely testing the button to see what happens, maybe some hatch with a bag of white opens.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>13:12<\/h3>\n<p>Now we are just at the starting blocks for something big, no point speculating about anything now, we have to see how the Russian colossus reacts after Ukraine has taken Melitopol and Kherson&#8217;s brave defenders stand lined up in a field in colorful bath ducks. That million more soldiers Russia has, and I think it&#8217;s about 2.6 million, is probably enough for a couple of huge human wave attacks but then even they are used up.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>13:19<\/h3>\n<p>When I did my military service, it was the Russian threat and I have spent a lot of time on the 80s submarine violations and never backed down from that it was the Russians. But at the same time, I have managed to think that the man whose name is blocked was a breath of fresh air and that today&#8217;s Russia has been a bit of an underdog. A very necessary calibration for me this war and now it should be enough for life, I hope \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nNot everything the free West does is great but it is infinitely better to live under them than to have the Russians or the Chinese as master in chief.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>13:19<\/h3>\n<p>When I did my military service, it was the Russian threat and I have spent a lot of time on the 80s submarine violations and never backed down from that it was the Russians. But at the same time, I have managed to think that the man whose name is blocked was a breath of fresh air and that today&#8217;s Russia has been a bit of an underdog. A very necessary calibration for me this war and now it should be enough for life, I hope \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nNot everything the free West does is great but it is infinitely better to live under them than to have the Russians or the Chinese as master in chief.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>13:28<\/h4>\n<p>Maybe it&#8217;s called Commander in Chief?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>13:34<\/h3>\n<p>NGB brought it up the other day, yes a very strange story that we still haven&#8217;t seen any report.<br \/>\nThen it shows a drift when the secretary-general (or whatever they are called) automatically goes out to full defense without understanding the extent of the mistake and the further damage he\/she\/they cause the organization.<br \/>\nNext week the penny will have dropped that if you don&#8217;t shape up, there will be less money to party with going forward, so there will probably be corrections. Surely, as you write, it will be referred to as preliminary analyses or something that was misinterpreted and then deliberately misinterpreted\/misrepresented by &#8220;right-wing forces&#8221; to ruin a good organization and that now more children will die because of all the criticism.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>15:12<\/h2>\n<p>In my post yesterday I was a bit unclear, I have interpreted that Phase 1 \u2013 Kherson, is to lock in the units west of the Dnipro.<br \/>\nPhase 2 is then to cut off Crimea by taking Melitopol and then Volnovakha has emerged a bit as a dark horse.<br \/>\nExactly how this will play out no one knows but when phase 1 is completed you can start the next. Blown bridges actually serve the purpose.<br \/>\nWhether Kherson falls immediately or after a long time we do not know and it can be easy at Tokmak, or not, the war runs its own race and above all we are dealing with Russians here and they can run with rubber ducks at the slightest or they have a Chechen at their back they are afraid of and stay in the hole.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nWhat is however notable IS that the Russians have continued to reinforce at Kherson even though the bridges have taken a hit, that MEANS they are taking BTGs from other front sections. Now according to the Twitter gods they are also reinforcing at Tokmak and previously they have reinforced at Vasilivka and why is not hard to understand \u2013 if Ukraine gains momentum and can cut off the entire eastern side of the Dnipro all units on the western side have even bigger problems than today.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nWhat one can now begin to deduce from the unit maps and what is happening on the battlefield as well as pre-bombardment could be that Ukraine is accelerating towards Volnovakha instead?<br \/>\nIt works perfectly well to cut off at Mariupol \u2013 Volnovakha instead of Tokmak \u2013 Melitopol. Somewhere the Russians are weak because the critical mass has been on Ukraine&#8217;s side for quite some time. Both lines, Melitopol \u2013 Tokmak and Mariupol \u2013 Volnovakha have natural defense lines and would achieve the same goal, to cut the land route to Crimea.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIzyum seems slowly to be decided over time, that the Russians are retreating village by village and that Ukraine is taking the terrain?<br \/>\nWhat I do get the impression of is that between Slovyansk and now down to Donetsk there is a locust swarm again, they are trying everywhere at once, big and small. That is actually perfect because it is the new BTG griller that has been prepared and just waiting for this. I thought that when Lysychansk was abandoned the Russians would not jump straight to the next line but I seriously underestimated the will to die here.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThere might be some opening towards Donbass, south or north of Donetsk that Ukraine can exploit.<br \/>\nI think that indicates that during the autumn the Russians will be forced back to roughly the starting points from 24 February?<br \/>\nWhether that decides the war or not is hard to know but one must consider this special operation a serious failure \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\nThen as said, continue to isolate any front section with HIMARS, 777, SOF and now air until they are ready to retreat or give up, it is only a matter of time until all terrain is retaken.<br \/>\nIf you don&#8217;t get in supplies and all the supplies you have disappear in mushroom clouds you are just waiting to die.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>16:46<\/h3>\n<p>In a normal situation one should highlight both sides but right now you probably have to be careful just as you say. As soon as someone in the West writes a sentence that can be misinterpreted Putin&#8217;s troll army jumps on it and repeats the quote so it becomes negative for Ukraine and good for Russia. It happens every day all the time and it gives legitimacy to Russia and the pro-Russian side.<br \/>\nTherefore, I think it is too difficult to find\/maintain that balance and have taken that position in the post above, it simply cannot be avoided that it is misrepresented.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nBut ok, if you can write something that cannot be taken out of context and misrepresented then I&#8217;m in \ud83d\ude42<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nThen the person who wrote the article or post can conveniently say \u2013 it was misinterpreted so not my fault \u2013 but it actually is.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nSurely we will come to a point where one should start highlighting what Ukraine has also done\/is doing, they are not faultless in any way and there are tragedies there too but for my part that can come a little later. They have to go through a whole process to join the EU and there they will be scrutinized.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>16:49<\/h3>\n<p>Those were positive comments above, nice that it is being read and thanks for the kind words everyone \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>22:27<\/h3>\n<p>A lot has happened during the summer, really the Russians are already denied retreat to the east of the Dnipro today, they are written off. All troop concentrations at river crossings or bridges will be shelled with HIMARS and then on roads or bridges, with air or army aviation. Sure, it hasn&#8217;t happened yet but the fate is sealed.<br \/>\nThen Izyum is on its way to being abandoned and if you look at the maps and write off all terrain west of the Oskil river and Kherson the Russian-controlled area suddenly becomes much smaller.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nYes, the southern front is a bit trickier but when it eventually goes up in a cloud of grilled T62s there won&#8217;t be much left of what the Russians took after 24 February, that&#8217;s what I thought.<br \/>\nBut sure, it hasn&#8217;t happened yet so wild positive guesses.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>11:17 Now that we&#8217;ve had another round of atrocities with castrations and heads on spikes, and Amnesty International timed their [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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