{"id":6478,"date":"2022-08-08T11:06:46","date_gmt":"2022-08-08T09:06:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-08-3\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T16:26:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T14:26:58","slug":"2022-08-08-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-08-3\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-08"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>18:45<\/h2>\n<p>Now it has been brought up but it is important to maintain the status as the permanent second. DefMon was of the opinion that it is 115BTG, 175,000 soldiers, 1650 MBTs and double the IFVs in Ukraine.<br \/>\nThat doesn&#8217;t sound completely unreasonable to me, 2000 knocked out + 1650 fighting = 3600 MBTs which was probably the consensus they had.<br \/>\nNow they have had 5.5 months to knock everything down.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIt also gives an indication that the fighting force at the front is under 100,000 men and the rear is quite substantial. What is included in the rear, is it Rosgvardia, TikTokers and other loose elements as well?<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nAgainst this, we have a constantly swelling Ukrainian army which is increasingly equipped with Western materiel. MBTs are probably in place, Polish P91, more T72s and certainly also Leo2s and the Renault vehicles. They have decent air defense and the artillery needs no further introduction, they kill Russians 24\/7.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nI like that the air force is going all in, you remember before HIMARS arrived, the Tochka-U went all in, as someone in the thread pointed out, could it be F16s on the way?<br \/>\nFor a complete palette of Russian-killing, probably only 200 CV90s are missing but it is not too late yet, the window is still slightly ajar.<br \/>\n\u2014<br \/>\nIt has been guessed like at the best bookmaker today whether it will be Kherson or Tokmak-Melitopol first so the thread&#8217;s energy for sweeping analyses feels exhausted. I am content to note that I still believe that goal 1 was to deny the Russians retreat from Kherson and that it has been achieved. Whether they all surrender in their rubber ducks before Tokmak \u2013 Melitopol falls or if they get momentum at Volnovakha is a bit trickier. However, FIRMS is starting to come online I saw, so maybe we will get some guidance eventually on where the most T62s are burning somewhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>18:45 Now it has been brought up but it is important to maintain the status as the permanent second. DefMon [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2022-08-08 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-08-3\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-08-08 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"18:45 Now it has been brought up but it is important to maintain the status as the permanent second. 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