{"id":6494,"date":"2022-08-15T10:10:49","date_gmt":"2022-08-15T08:10:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-15-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T16:28:37","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T14:28:37","slug":"2022-08-15-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-15-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-15"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

16:28<\/h2>\n

This thing about pulling away political leadership and combat command to the eastern side of the Dnipro feels very Russian.
\nIf we know this, the Russians-in-the-trench also know it, maybe there is truth behind the blogger’s claims that Russian soldiers are trying to buy everything that floats?
\nWe have discussed this quite thoroughly with an unorganized retreat and all that follows, colorful rubber ducks at the front. The Russian army seems to me like an organization where this absolutely can happen and now there is almost a receipt for it when everyone with stars was allowed on board the ferry to the western side. Not much leadership from the front there \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nWhat we know is that Russian units west of the Dnipro are not receiving supplies and cannot retreat in good order. Those are two pretty strong reasons for panic among the Russians-in-the-trench but this panic must be triggered by something. This something is likely a Ukrainian advance somewhere that would spread this panic, for example Khakovka?
\nThat might be enough to create the feeling that it\u2019s over, when it spreads that Ukraine is down at Khakovka on the western bank of the Dnipro.
\nOr it might be something else, boats crossing the Dnipro north of Khakovka to create a feeling that Ukraine will take the eastern riverbank of the Dnipro (which won\u2019t actually happen but if you can start a rumor\u2026).
\nDo you think the same effect can be achieved with an armageddon of indirect fire but not over Kherson, maybe that will be difficult?
\n\u2014
\nWhat are the Russian countermeasures, pulling back combat command to east of the Dnipro, well then they can\u2019t prevent panic and HIMARS will find them anyway in their new command post. They are trying to get Pion self-propelled howitzers to the front, long-range ones that can stand on the western side, but they are supposed to fire from the latest blown-up railway bridge and are probably in poor condition and then they have to unload \u2013 HIMARS.
\nReinforce more on the western side \u2013 it\u2019s probably coming to an end now, those who are there have to manage the defense.
\n\u2014
\n\u2013 Most likely they will start going on the defensive on the eastern side of the Dnipro now I guess.
\nIf they go on the defensive on the eastern side of the Dnipro, they have to take those units from somewhere because the units on the western side are going nowhere. This will be either the southern front or Izyum \u2013 Donbass which then weakens and opens for Ukrainian offensives. A near-term lottery ticket.
\n\u2014
\nRight now the Russians actually feel completely reactive in everything, they try to plug the holes and at the same time keep up an offensive in Donbass hoping it will yield something but it doesn\u2019t, they are going nowhere and losses are high. It\u2019s not so much that Ukraine has really taken the initiative as that the Russians are fully occupied with defense everywhere except in Donbass, a bit hard to explain maybe.
\n\u2014
\nToday\u2019s artillery list contained many place names, haven\u2019t bothered to google them but some looked new. Otherwise nice discussion in the thread today.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:29<\/h3>\n

Eastern side for Pion\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:35<\/h3>\n

Yes, the cult of personality totally went to his head.
\nThen it takes a special type of personality to climb to the top in a country like Russia, several diagnoses and those you weren\u2019t born with you probably learned in the KGB?
\n\u2014
\nI am endlessly fascinated that Putin has made exactly the same journey as Hitler, only that he made his mistakes immediately. There are so many points of contact that it\u2019s almost incomprehensible.
\nI have also understood the complexity with the free West, that you compromise for too long but if you cross the line then you end up like Napoleon, Hitler or Putin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:10<\/h3>\n

Yes, it\u2019s quite difficult to predict in the FIRMS swamp right now \ud83d\ude42
\nIt\u2019s really only the Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut line that is showing artillery activity according to FIRMS, pretty calm in other Ukrainian areas.
\nAnd\u2026 just as you write, it\u2019s really lively in the darkest Donbass and then down towards Rostov on Don and east of that.
\nI was zooming in and out but can\u2019t quite figure out what they might have east of Rostov on Don of value and then you must not forget forest fires in the middle of summer.
\n\u2014
\nBut, if you zoom out a lot on Russia it\u2019s completely bright red in the darkest Donbass \u2013 Rostov on Don and east of that and not a red dot anywhere else (exaggeration for effect). And we hear nothing\u2026
\nAt least the city of Rostov on Don has been a big supply hub and there are many high-value targets there. Belgorod is probably done with.
\nOne can only hope that Ukraine keeps pounding with long-range weapons or remote patrols \ud83d\ude42
\nNoteworthy that Kyiv has exactly 1 red dot\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:11<\/h2>\n

The more you sit and look at this the more you wonder if it\u2019s not Mariupol that is Phase 2 here?
\nThere are quite a few brigades in that area now.
\n\u2014
\nThen Ukraine is strong in Donbass and northwards. The Russians had, according to rumors, pushed in 50% of their units at Kherson\/Southern front and they are definitely around Vasylivka and Tokmak those who are east of the Dnipro.
\nThe Kherson Russians are now locked in.
\nVolnovakha towards Mariupol and near Donetsk do not have a high density of Russian units.
\n\u2014
\nIn lack of anything else one speculates further \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:20<\/h3>\n

East of the Dnipro lies Vasylivka which is quite a potent defense and which according to many reports has been heavily reinforced, probably because the Russians think the same, losing the eastern bank would be a bit embarrassing.
\n\u2014
\nThe second possibility is to slip in \u201cbetween\u201d the two defensive lines down towards Tokmak and they are probably working on that but the Russians have also reinforced there.
\n\u2014
\nThe third possibility is to jump on Volnovakha and down towards Mariupol which is still semi-open, not so strongly fortified I think you can see?
\n\u2014
\nAlternative four \u2013 pick one of the above and unleash the flood with 777 and HIMARS until you can walk through the Russian defensive lines and take selfies in front of burning T62s. They managed to take Tokmachka (not Tokmak) that way \u2013 I still can\u2019t find that town.
\n\u2014
\nThey will probably come up with something now that Phase 1 is completed to lock in the Kherson Russians west of the Dnipro. You can really feel in your toes that something bigger is going on here \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:38<\/h3>\n

I think exactly that, it\u2019s the inertia in the Russian decision-making chain that gives Ukraine the win.
\nCombat command in the field does not report correctly upwards, they sugarcoat the pig and the bunker dwarf fights maps like the worst Hitler.
\nIn his world it\u2019s probably a good move to head towards Odessa in a few months, best to build up and hold the bridgehead, and just as you write, not a stroke back.
\nNow even a preschool class can see where Kherson is heading so imagine when it goes really fast somewhere, then completely insane orders will come down that waste even more BTGs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

16:28 This thing about pulling away political leadership and combat command to the eastern side of the Dnipro feels very 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