{"id":6526,"date":"2022-08-27T10:44:10","date_gmt":"2022-08-27T08:44:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-27-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T16:32:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T14:32:05","slug":"2022-08-27-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:02<\/h2>\n

Once again, we have reached a point where the Russians are reinforcing with more than they should have, it has been somewhat of a black hole regarding what the Russians can muster.
\nNow there are different divisions and different armies with different depots, so the fact that T62s arrived at the southern front does not mean that all divisions have empty barns.<\/p>\n

A little calibration: there was some kind of offensive pause after Lysychansk and it was thought that Ukraine would take the initiative. The Russians had bled heavily in their human wave attacks and at Kherson the Russians had 6-9 BTGs or similar when Ukraine launched its offensive. At first, it looked quite promising too.
\nThen we had the discussion that this year’s conscripts and training battalions would be mobilized, 30 BTGs, and then it would be over.<\/p>\n

They have also probably pressed in 10,000 prison inmates and forcibly recruited like crazy in the DPR and LPR.
\n175,000 men was a figure circulating not long ago as the Russian manpower present in Ukraine.
\nAt the same time, we have been informed that Ukraine has put its million-man army on a war footing (the entire armed forces).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:02<\/h3>\n

A few days ago, there were 20 trains with armor crossing the Kerch bridge and before that trains with Pion self-propelled howitzers. Erik14 posted something about 400 fighter jets and helicopters at the borders with Ukraine.
\n-Now we don’t know what movements are of already \u2013 counted \u2013 units and what is new, but today the Russians are said to have about 1500 tanks in Ukraine and together with the losses, that is the number many analysts have estimated they could have operational, 3500.
\nIt was thought they would be unmodified models and somewhat older, but now there is footage again of trains with BTR90, T80, etc.<\/p>\n

We have reached the end of August and Ukrainian local offensive operations are ongoing and Izyum is clearly about to change hands, so the Russians do not have the manpower to hold all front sections \u2013 otherwise they would have held Izyum.
\nHowever, they have pressed in an almost incredible number of new BTGs at the Kherson front and now in Daily Gregg that they are to move towards Vuhledar, which, according to my assessment, was the best positioned place where Ukraine would launch something interesting next.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03<\/h3>\n

Looking up and looking strategically, it is quite good if the Russians defend Kherson, the Southern front, and Crimea at the expense of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
\n-sooner or later Ukraine will take Mariupol and blow up the Kerch bridge and then the remaining units can consider how to get out of the bad situation.<\/p>\n

It seems quite clear that the Russians are eager for continued offensive operations and that exhaustion which Ukraine is supposed to take advantage of never occurs. Whether they run their BTGs to zero and have difficulty replenishing or whether they replenish with draftees and materiel I don’t know. I guess they get more reserves than we are led to believe. For example, there were rumors about mobilizations before but you never get anything concrete to go on.<\/p>\n

There is nothing to prevent Ukraine from continuing its successful defensive battle, if Ukraine has lost 15,000 men it will probably be a total of 50,000 dead and wounded, a staggering number but the ranks can be filled several times over. Regarding materiel, they should also have enough.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05<\/h2>\n

Now the big question is how much the Russians can replenish their ranks, they have clearly taken bigger hits than they are comfortable with but they are conducting offensive operations, albeit poor ones, on a couple of different front sections.<\/p>\n

A crucial piece of the puzzle for Ukraine’s offensive is MBTs and IFVs. It may be that Ukraine has not yet received what they need. One always hopes it will be like with the artillery, that they are in place before we know it, but maybe not?<\/p>\n

Why this hasn’t come after six months I find hard to understand, HIMARS have been delivered which pulverize the Russians’ rear as we speak and before that generals were dying by the dozen.<\/p>\n

There is no reason to try to beat the Russians with infantry; armor is needed. At least 3 brigades should have Polish armor with night fighting capabilities and it was thought they would act as a battering ram but that has not happened.
\nWe really hope Kos is right and that it will be the USA that sorts this out in the end with Abrams and Bradley and that there is something fun in the last weapons package from us, like CV90\u2026<\/p>\n

The Russian offensive will probably ebb out for a short time again soon and then we continue to hope for progress for Ukraine, but can there be a reasonable plan that is not an offensive during the autumn?<\/p>\n

Is there any win for Ukraine to continue waging a war over time, like Russia being permanently drained of warfighting capacity or the country completely collapsing and not even being able to think about round 3?
\nThat kicking out the Russians now (too early) would only lead to a rebuilding?
\nI don’t think so but the question is certainly worth raising, Ukraine itself has been almost explicit that the Russians should be kicked out feet first with a late summer\/early autumn start.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:24<\/h3>\n

I think it is a strange priority they are making which I interpret as good for Ukraine. There is no broad land bridge between Vuhledar \u2013 Mariupol and at Kerch there is only one bridge. Pressing everything in there creates two bottlenecks that must make the Ukrainian\/US command toast with the most expensive beer.
\nThe hardest would always be the darkest Donbass but if there is only 1st Army there it might go fast\/faster.
\nThen we have the area east of the Oskil river which I wonder if they will even hold.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:01<\/h2>\n

15:36 and the kamikaze attack by the Russians.
\nAt the forest edge there must have been at least a Ukrainian rifle squad?
\n8 men faltering under NLaw, Javelin, and anti-tank rockets, AK and at least one machine gun.
\nThat would have ended the same way even if they hadn’t run straight onto the mines.
\nYes, as the blogger wrote, no direct support, no indirect fire, nothing.
\nIf there were two who rushed across the field there should have been at least one more who could provide fire support?
\nWent straight to bookmark, when you don’t think they can get worse they start doing “suicide-by-cop,” they managed to get off a whole grenade in the direction of Ukraine before they died.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:09<\/h2>\n

Do you think Serbia had a plan to also enter Kosovo at the same time as Belarus entered Ukraine?
\nThere has been some movement there and it had been very quiet for a long time before that.
\nThen people thought China would jump on Taiwan.
\nWhat stopped all other cunning plans was probably that it went so badly already the first week, that mythical column running out of fuel was broadcast worldwide immediately and signaled anything but strength.
\nMoreover, Serbia, China, Belarus, and Hungary probably had some kind of overarching timeline where Kiev would fall early.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:02 Once again, we have reached a point where the Russians are reinforcing with more than they should have, it […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-08-27 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-08-27 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"12:02 Once again, we have reached a point where the Russians are reinforcing with more than they should have, it […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Johan No.1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-08-27T08:44:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-21T14:32:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"johan No.1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"johan No.1\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"johan No.1\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/1dec165f070bde263b30eaf3c0a742e7\"},\"headline\":\"2022-08-27\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-08-27T08:44:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-21T14:32:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1198,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Ukraine war\",\"Arkiv01\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"2022-08-27 -\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-08-27T08:44:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-21T14:32:05+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/2022-08-27-2\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Hem\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"2022-08-27\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"Johan No.1\",\"description\":\"News and analysis about the war in Ukraine and other global events in world politics and security.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Johan No. 1\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/cropped-No1-Logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/03\\\/cropped-No1-Logo.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Johan No. 1\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/1dec165f070bde263b30eaf3c0a742e7\",\"name\":\"johan No.1\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/06f93864ed6b830e2782e60575fff112f1c61c52bb10b194131e0e333191695b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/06f93864ed6b830e2782e60575fff112f1c61c52bb10b194131e0e333191695b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/06f93864ed6b830e2782e60575fff112f1c61c52bb10b194131e0e333191695b?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"johan No.1\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/johanno1.se\\\/en\\\/author\\\/johan\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"2022-08-27 -","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"2022-08-27 -","og_description":"12:02 Once again, we have reached a point where the Russians are reinforcing with more than they should have, it […]","og_url":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/","og_site_name":"Johan No.1","article_published_time":"2022-08-27T08:44:10+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-09-21T14:32:05+00:00","author":"johan No.1","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"johan No.1","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/"},"author":{"name":"johan No.1","@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/1dec165f070bde263b30eaf3c0a742e7"},"headline":"2022-08-27","datePublished":"2022-08-27T08:44:10+00:00","dateModified":"2026-09-21T14:32:05+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/"},"wordCount":1198,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#organization"},"articleSection":["Ukraine war","Arkiv01"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/","url":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/","name":"2022-08-27 -","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2022-08-27T08:44:10+00:00","dateModified":"2026-09-21T14:32:05+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-27-2\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Hem","item":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"2022-08-27"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/","name":"Johan No.1","description":"News and analysis about the war in Ukraine and other global events in world politics and security.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#organization","name":"Johan No. 1","url":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cropped-No1-Logo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/cropped-No1-Logo.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Johan No. 1"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/1dec165f070bde263b30eaf3c0a742e7","name":"johan No.1","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/06f93864ed6b830e2782e60575fff112f1c61c52bb10b194131e0e333191695b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/06f93864ed6b830e2782e60575fff112f1c61c52bb10b194131e0e333191695b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/06f93864ed6b830e2782e60575fff112f1c61c52bb10b194131e0e333191695b?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"johan No.1"},"url":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/author\/johan\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6526"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6526\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6527,"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6526\/revisions\/6527"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}