{"id":6528,"date":"2022-08-28T10:24:46","date_gmt":"2022-08-28T08:24:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-28-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T16:32:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T14:32:25","slug":"2022-08-28-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-28-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:36<\/h2>\n

Erik14 you have an almost unique talent for lowering the joy meter a few notches when it runs wild, there\u2019s probably a career opportunity there \ud83d\ude42
\nSaw your post about the 3rd Army, it was up north of Kharkov and was rumored to be 15,000 criminal incompetents strong.<\/p>\n

It has now been transported down to Rostov according to Kiev Independent, which is considered a reliable source, and the Twitter gods.
\nIt will probably be deployed at Vuhledar\/Southern front and possibly reinforce Donbass?
\nI interpret\/have interpreted the last few weeks as the Russians (I have a whole working life in English so my Swedish is a bit rough) will keep pushing for a while here?<\/p>\n

Clearly they want to achieve something at Kherson and now at the southern front. A third larger organized offensive that took place before the April offensive started to ebb at Severedonetsk.
\nThe Russians, like everyone else, have felt that the small land tongue north of Mariupol was a weakness and are trying to solve that problem with the 3rd Army.
\nNow it is what it is whether they like it or not \u2013 HIMARS.<\/p>\n

So while everyone was waiting for a Ukrainian offensive at Kherson, the Russians have gone and pulled units from north of Kharkov, Izyum and the northern front in general, and weakened Donbass.
\nThe unit maps are a bit scattered again regarding Russian BTGs, you don\u2019t really know the number behind an icon anymore. Now it actually matters less, we have agreed on that, but out of habit you want to be able to compare numbers.<\/p>\n

I had thought that after the April offensive there would be a pause in fighting from the Russian side that Ukraine could exploit to strike at a whole front section like Kherson or the Southern front but the Russians seem to think as they always have \u2013 if it didn\u2019t work with force then we increase the meter directly and see if it goes better.
\nWe can be sure that the Kherson front holds against whatever mischief the red team comes up with and they will take obscene losses with every move. Ukraine has created a perfect killing ground here where artillery in all its forms and air\/helicopters hit every attempt at attack and troop concentration.<\/p>\n

Then we still have Phase 1 achieved \u2013 to deny the Kherson Russians retreat across the Dnieper.
\nPhase 2 was probably supposed to be something fun at the Southern front, Vuhledar, where the Russians appeared weak but they have thought the same and their offensive at the southern front is now on the cards. There is zero incentive for Ukraine to attack there now and they can continue defending and grilling BTGs.<\/p>\n

At the southern front Ukraine stands in a good defensive line except maybe at Vuhledar so a tactical retreat a bit might have to be expected, they should have built a new defensive line northwest of Vuhledar, maybe Novoukrainka \u2013 Bohoyavlenka or further back. It is not optimal defensive terrain. But above all it is terribly bad terrain for the red team to advance in and it will cost them large heaps of criminal incompetents in uniform.<\/p>\n

With that clarified and that the Russians will take heavy losses at Kherson and the southern front for some time to come for a few kilometers of potato field, one starts to wonder what Ukraine will come up with for lack of initiative they certainly do not have.
\nWe know that at Izyum a Russian version of delaying tactics is currently underway, they get Ukrainian artillery on them and die without having fired a shot at a single Ukrainian and then they pull back a kilometer or so and repeat until the battalion is gone. Ukraine has now gained a foothold in the mythical forest area southwest of the city of Izyum where entire Russian armies have disappeared and I don\u2019t think they intend to let go this time.<\/p>\n

There are also a couple of heavy elephants south of Izyum pressing north.
\nIt is a fairly large geographical area north of Slovyansk \u2013 Severedonetsk that probably has never been particularly well fortified since Izyum has always been the western anchor.
\nNow they have also pulled units from there down south so even weaker and if we guess it is BTGs left around Severedonetsk, the former empty shell, licking their wounds.
\nAn important observation is that Russia is not at all afraid that Ukraine or Poland will cross the border because otherwise they would not have sent the 3rd Army down to Rostov. It was the guarantee that nothing embarrassing would happen. Almost cheating actually that the Russians get to act like this\u2026<\/p>\n

A game Ukraine has up here is actually to try to push eastward between Kharkov \u2013 Severedonetsk and retake everything they can up to the border of this large area. They have 12-13 maneuver brigades in this area supported by a large number of NG, Territorial and Volunteers so somewhere just under 30 brigades in strength.
\nThis has been mentioned in the thread before as one of the options, it was probably at the beginning of May when tour-de-777 started that I declared in a burst of acute positivity that Ukraine would push through Izyum and go east in best Iraq war 2.0 style. Now the playing field seems a bit better for such an attempt.<\/p>\n

Then we have darkest Donbass, if it is the 1st Army that is manning the trenches then anything can happen there. Something will surely happen because Ukraine has stacked a couple of good brigades there.<\/p>\n

In a slightly longer perspective \u2013 I think everyone except the Russians understands that when there is too much west and north of the Kerch Bridge and Mariupol it will be difficult with supply and over time more and more Ukrainian air, helicopters and artillery in all its beautiful forms.<\/p>\n

Then there will also be a Kherson effect there, if everyone tries to take the eastern route at Mariupol it will go so-so and if they hide down on Crimea they can do that, threat zero.
\nIt is godsend that the Russians have depopulated darkest Donbass and the northern front in favor of Kherson, southern front and Crimea, almost like they are working for the blue team here.<\/p>\n

One dares not predict a timeline anymore, we have to enjoy the small successes for now, drone flights, mushroom clouds, moon craters and thinning of the fifth column and not least the daily lottery that often cheers us up.
\nNow it\u2019s time for church.<\/p>\n

Then one starts to wonder when it will be time for MBT and CV90, they are a vital puzzle piece here, they lie on the critical line and everything is delayed by the time it takes until they arrive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:37<\/h3>\n

It slipped through the filter, a particularly good day this.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:49<\/h3>\n

The value base is quite narrow and probably cannot be applied to that they want to end the war \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

That said, I think these two authorities have been so wrong that they should understand it themselves and really be super ashamed. A bit like at a workplace meeting airing that you think prostitutes are good, preferably young ones \u2013 this opinion could never be backed down from.<\/p>\n

From my side, they are welcome to have that opinion, but they also have to take the criticism because they have deviated from a fairly consistent line that the free world, except for Scholz, Serbia, China, and Hungary, has taken.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:08<\/h2>\n

Reading the WP article which is great, one sentence stands out, it’s always the USA and UK on the right side of history in everything. You can probably guess it was Germany, Italy, and France \ud83d\ude42
\n\u201dEuropean officials had been assuring him they didn\u2019t see the same threat the United States and Britain did. According to Ukraine\u2019s own intelligence assessments, Russia also didn\u2019t have enough forces amassed over the border to capture or occupy a city the size of Kyiv\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:09<\/h2>\n

ISW did not hold back in their criticism of the 3rd Army \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now I understand where the T80 and BTR90 came from, they have received new(ish) equipment.<\/p>\n

The court psychopath didn\u2019t go all the way though, 50-year-olds in BTR90 just become traffic accidents and sciatica\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:33<\/h3>\n

I remember that one \ud83d\ude42
\nWhen tour-de-777 started and we began scanning firms, we found a larger fire there, obviously a rear one that was crackling. After a while, Erik14 found a note that it was a national park and that there was a forest fire there.<\/p>\n

I am of the fairly consistent opinion that something ignites it, now in the middle of the sunny summer easier, otherwise during winter and autumn you need a good dose of lighter fluid and you most conveniently find that in an artillery battery or a depot.<\/p>\n

I have guessed that that peninsula is excellent for artillery firing against the Ukrainian advance near Oleksandrivka.<\/p>\n

We also found out some time ago that Ukraine has its own version of Navy Seals who have been running around in boats all war and striking targets along the coast, there have often been small red dots right on the shoreline. They had also had a permanent base on the peninsula at the far end, I think.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:36 Erik14 you have an almost unique talent for lowering the joy meter a few notches when it runs wild, 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