{"id":6532,"date":"2022-08-29T10:49:33","date_gmt":"2022-08-29T08:49:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-29-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T16:32:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T14:32:56","slug":"2022-08-29-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-08-29-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-29"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:12<\/h3>\n

I have looked at what the Russians have accomplished since the start of the war and tried to interpret it.
\nFor example, the media agreed that the Russians would take Kiev within three days while Ukraine said \u2013 never.
\nIt ended with the Russians having to flee an entire front section with enormous losses. The media called it a voluntary retreat.
\nAnd it has been like that, since the start of the April offensive the terrain around Kharkov has been lost and Izyum lives dangerously. The only success was Lysychansk which, in a moment of honesty, can be called a loss, it would have been better if they had held that line. However, the Russians have thrown themselves over the next line with human waves and T62s.<\/p>\n

Yes, the Russians have brought forward more materiel and personnel than we have managed to figure out but they are losing the war. Their only chance not to lose the war is if they manage to freeze the fronts where they are today, go home, sanctions are eased and then they can rearm for round 3.<\/p>\n

Or if they manage to get the West not to send materiel.<\/p>\n

It is in this light that ALL proposals for peace where Ukraine gives up territory should be seen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:18<\/h2>\n

The IAEA delegation has lined up for a photo so there is proof of how many they were when the Russians start kidnapping and torturing them at the nuclear power plant \u2013 smart.<\/p>\n

The daily lottery numbers are a bit exciting again, both soldiers and heavy materiel are going down. FIRMS doesn\u2019t give any direct guidance other than that there are not many fires and it is still the middle of summer. What we absolutely see is a significant decrease in the intensity of Russian artillery so absolutely all destroyed depots must have seriously disrupted the supply chain up to the barrels.<\/p>\n

Do you think Archer + Arthur will do for counterbattery fire what HIMARS did to Russian depots? That is, that Russian artillery becomes an endangered species?<\/p>\n

Now we have gotten some insight into the 3rd Army here from ISW. I thought it was 15,000 men but I don\u2019t know if they have the numbers, it sounds less. The plan according to Wikipedia is 15,000 \u2013 60,000 men so they are shooting quite broadly here. However, it was new materiel driven by medical retirees. There won\u2019t be so many war injuries as diseases of age \u2013 incontinence, sciatica, ringing ears and difficulty sleeping.<\/p>\n

One got a bit worried by all the videos of T80, T90, BTR90 etc. but now we know what it is \u2013 a retirement home on tracks \ud83d\ude0a
\n3rd Army was up north of Kharkov for two purposes, a block if Ukraine got the feeling and tried to take Belgorod and a threat of a new offensive from the north.
\nThat it has now been moved south means two things \u2013 <\/p>\n

-the psychotic dwarf is not the least worried that Ukraine will storm north or that Poland will enter Belarus. This is almost cheating as I often write.<\/p>\n

-that they have abandoned plans for an offensive from the north. You can\u2019t get your buddy who has consistently betrayed you since the start of the war, the bunker dwarf must be so incredibly disappointed in him.<\/p>\n

3rd Army is an intact unit consisting of X number of BTGs and an assumed command structure, feels like they will be deployed to fulfill an offensive combat objective rather than to fill out various fronts in defense \u2013 just my feeling.
\nWe know they are down near Rostov and I suspect that the trains via Crimea are their materiel because it was BTR90, T80 and before that Pion which is very long-range.<\/p>\n

I can\u2019t quite decide if these should be counted as new additions or redistribution but maybe redistribution since they have disappeared from the area north of Kharkov.<\/p>\n

Maybe it opens for Ukraine to finally retake its territory north of Kharkov?<\/p>\n

Sorry for a negative \u2013 negative post in the press conference thread, I broke protocol and got a call from management demanding a public apology, which this is.<\/p>\n

Then I read that WP article and it confirmed something we have seen on video since the start of the war, Ukraine puts everything on fire on target, that is overarching everything else \u2013 hit the Russian. The Russians shoot in the direction of Ukraine and then they have done their job. Videos of group fighting so they can stand waist-deep in water as long as there is a hit on target while the Russians hold the weapon around the corner and shoot in the direction of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:19<\/h3>\n

Late summer maybe it should say<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:54<\/h2>\n

Ok this didn\u2019t exactly come as a bolt from the blue since it has been expected for quite a while but it still surprises because the Russians have crammed in as many BTGs as possible in Kherson.<\/p>\n

Armed forces of Ukraine have launched an offensive in Southern Ukraine and the tag is in Kherson \ud83d\ude42
\nhttps:\/\/liveuamap.com\/en\/2022\/29-august-armed-forces-of-ukraine-have-launched-offensive<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:55<\/h3>\n

The Twitter gods are starting to join in slowly and it seems to be full speed across the entire front from Krivoj Rog, north of Khakovka over to Kherson.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56<\/h4>\n

In Khakovka all civilians have been ordered down into shelters\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56<\/h2>\n

Ukrainian forces have begun \u201dshaping\u201d operations in South Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive, two senior US officials briefed on the intel tell. US believes the long-anticipated counteroffensive will include air and ground ops.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:07<\/h2>\n

Now we might get to see what two Ukrainian armored brigades with night fighting equipment can accomplish \ud83d\ude42
\nKhakovka has had the monthly salary for quite a while now.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see if the panic spreads, it would be fantastic fun if the whole front collapses and it really becomes operation spontaneous rubber duck.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s probably enough if Ukraine manages a breakthrough here and reaches the Dnieper to raise the anxiety meter to max.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:23<\/h2>\n

After the big chaos day one no longer dares to jump on good news too quickly\u2026
\nBut now enough people have said this is the start of an offensive, albeit \u201dpositional battles\u201d so far?
\nYou got the exact same vibes when it was Davydiv Brid so it would be fun if this was an offensive aimed at reaching the Dnieper somewhere and creating the panic required for a proper flight across the Dnieper.
\nDamn how you want to see Russians in a rubber duck\u2026<\/p>\n

Khakovka has been a little favorite, Sukhoi Stavok is a bit north so far.<\/p>\n

Now all kinds of alternative theories have been launched the last two weeks due to lack of offensive but that they rolled down the 17th Tank Brigade there is probably an indication that they plan to do something fun.<\/p>\n

An indicator that this is forward should be mechanized combat?
\nNow we had it in one place, if reports continue to come in about it then they must have put the heavy elephants on the move eastward across the entire front one can guess. Then there are over 20 HIMARS systems in Ukraine now so you can spread enormous death on buried Russians now.<\/p>\n

Bombing away Russian air from Crimea was naturally preparation for air and army aviation to operate at Kherson.<\/p>\n

The only negative is that I now have to go away for a couple of hours to the recycling center and City Gross, there was no way to wiggle out of it\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:26<\/h3>\n

Ukraine has 8 brigades including two armored over the Kherson front, maybe more because there are some behind pushing.
\nIf the timing is right and they put them on the move towards the Dnieper it will be very difficult for the Russians to hold the entire front, somewhere they will reach the Dnieper and panic will spread \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Then you have 10 brigades that can be moved to the next front section and take care of the nursing home on caterpillar tracks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:52<\/h2>\n

It will be exciting tomorrow to see which place names have been taken, no blockbusters so far.<\/p>\n

A very exciting moment for an offensive just when the Russians have pushed in everything they can there \u2013 signals Batman-strength for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The preliminary fighting is not yet visible on firms, we will see around lunchtime tomorrow.<\/p>\n

Such an epic video of the DPR guy in panic, that set the tone \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Remember that all command has already moved east of the Dnieper, all bridges are cut and Ukraine has knocked out the LV and pushed back Russian air. That combined with all artillery + 2 armored brigades and 8-10 in total is a huge blow.<\/p>\n

It will be exciting to see what happens at Melitopol, Vuhledar, Izyum and Kharkiv going forward, there are about 30 Ukrainian brigades at the Izyum front all included.<\/p>\n

This is probably the third attempt but it is the first time there is talk of fleeing Russians. Pretty sure that a breakthrough down to the Dnieper near Khakovka type area is enough to create panic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:12 I have looked at what the Russians have accomplished since the start of the war and tried to interpret 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