{"id":6724,"date":"2022-09-02T08:42:37","date_gmt":"2022-09-02T06:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-09-02-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T10:34:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T08:34:20","slug":"2022-09-02-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-09-02-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-09-02"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:43<\/h2>\n

Now what is interesting is what is happening on other front sections than at Kherson.
\nFor example, around Izyum there are a total of about 30 Ukrainian brigades. The red team has been pulling units from there for quite some time now.<\/p>\n

Up by Kharkiv something is going on and it is still mostly territorial, volunteers, and some maneuver brigade. Have the Russians weakened even up there?<\/p>\n

I think a very clear combat objective for Ukraine is to, along the entire northern front, that is all the terrain between say Kharkiv \u2013 Severodonetsk, try to take terrain up to their national border and then fortify it.
\nOne can assume that the terrain between the Polish border \u2013 Kharkiv today is well fortified and defended by territorial troops with okay density and then some firefighting force for a larger front section coming from a maneuver brigade that is probably rotated to the active front at regular intervals.<\/p>\n

Here I think Ukraine will dust off the old Kupiansk offensive and then basically push from all directions towards Izyum and then try to hook on and go east of the Oskil river.
\nThe whole huge area was taken by Russia since February 24 and is likely poorly fortified as they have always had Izyum as the western anchor.<\/p>\n

When you reach your national border east of (northeast of) Severodonetsk then you are quite close to all the logistics that go from western Russia down to the darkest Donbass, Rostov, and Crimea.
\nA little double win, partly you take back a larger area and fortify it when the Russians are weak and partly you choke the logistics so it becomes even harder for the red team to supply the horde.<\/p>\n

At Kherson, as I interpret it, there is an artillery advantage from Ukraine as well as almost air superiority, it is not maintained with fighter aircraft but with UAVs, absence of UAVs on the Russian side and really many on the Ukrainian side. This means Russian CAS is low and Ukraine has increased its CAS from air and army aviation considerably, they fly non-stop.<\/p>\n

At Kherson it is now the Russian counterattacks that are to be played out, their firefighting units. If Ukraine has made a push in an unexpected place they have to get up and bandage on the road like big rolling targets just waiting to die. When they are knocked out, the defense in the ditch remains. A slowly rolling steamroller that over time will clear away all resistance west of the Dnipro. I guess Ukraine has the advantage in armor and direct fire from tanks is excellent and then the Russians at least at Kherson soon, or now, are low on anti-tank rounds\/RPGs. According to some reports, there have been fewer of these along the entire front and you understand why, they shoot them at pretty much everything.<\/p>\n

Now it is cloudy in Ukraine for a while but what you can clearly discern from FIRMS is that fighting against Russians in ditches is ongoing all the way down to the town Ukrainska from the Kryvyi Rih offensive, there has been considerable movement there.<\/p>\n

Then we again have to think of the Ukrainian soldiers who are dying right now, Ukraine will take heavy losses in this offensive BUT it will not be reversed because they are not attacking like sneaky Russians, they work calmly and methodically forward and let CAS and artillery kill Russians in ditches. That said, many are dying now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:31<\/h3>\n

Quite an accurate description Erik14, yes they are going nowhere, get no logistics, wounded cannot be evacuated.
\nSo there is no real hurry.<\/p>\n

I think what we have seen in a first phase are intense reconnaissance\/positioning battles with associated flattening of identified defenses. We have quite some time ago probably established that it will probably not be mechanized combat as we are used to seeing it but it will be this hybrid between infantry\/mech and then a hell of a lot of pre-bombardment and CAS. SOF also cause trouble.<\/p>\n

Now one is a bit social media damaged so when there was no advance to the Dnipro the first day everyone gets tired and declares everything failed, R\u00f6pke most notable.
\nKherson IS lost for the Russians in the long run.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:57<\/h3>\n

We constantly guess the Russians\u2019 numbers but most recently it was about 170,000 strong according to qualified assessors?
\nYes, I think Ukraine has more than that, probably over 300,000 men in maneuver brigades that function in combat and command chain but they also have to protect the border where there are no active battles. Then there are more in less qualitative units.
\nAt Kherson I think they have numerical and material superiority\/advantage.
\nAt Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut they have defended in numerical and material inferiority.
\nThe stretch I was thinking of was between Kharkiv \u2013 Slovyansk which covers the entire Izyum front and there are quite a few brigades standing there, seems to be more like 20 than 30 but don\u2019t spoil a good story \ud83d\ude42
\nI think they have numerical and material superiority there now.
\nSix months of fighting also gives combat experience.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:43 Now what is interesting is what is happening on other front sections than at Kherson. For example, around Izyum […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6724","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-09-02 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-09-02-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-09-02 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"12:43 Now what is interesting is what is happening on other front sections than at Kherson. 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