{"id":6742,"date":"2022-09-10T09:56:22","date_gmt":"2022-09-10T07:56:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-09-10-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T10:38:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T08:38:39","slug":"2022-09-10-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-09-10-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-09-10"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:02<\/h2>\n

The internet went down yesterday and Cornucopia got hacked, it was hard to release that energy during the evening but now the thread is double speed instead \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

It seems like Ukraine has completely confused the Russians in the stands here, they advanced to the Oskil River south of Kupiansk and then just kept going south and never stopped.
\nI couldn\u2019t make sense of it during the evening \u2013 first Ukraine was at Oskil, then in Izyum, the Russians fought south of Izyum with 2 divisions (battalions per division) + 1st Army. I looked for information on whether the Russians evacuated Izyum but don\u2019t think so, it seems like they are running around in the forests in all directions down there and don\u2019t quite know what to do.
\nThe area west of the Oskil River is now lost to the Russians, it\u2019s a fairly large piece that Ukraine has retaken by completely outclassing the Russians.<\/p>\n

I BELIEVE there are about 10,000 Russians in the Izyum area who are now encircled but we\u2019ll see, I think they have held off a number of Ukrainian brigades attacking from the south and then from the rear, artillery etc., so the number seems reasonable.
\nI also get the impression that Ukraine hasn\u2019t exhausted its units here and this has been going on for a couple of days now, they started around September 5-6?
\nThe revolving door is on now that Izyum has been passed\u2026<\/p>\n

Probably not many expected this incredible advance that would have made Rommel green with envy.
\nMy best-case scenario was a Kherson-style encirclement of the Izyum Russians to starve them out, roughly.
\nUkraine is doing everything right and pressing on until it stops. Ahead of the spearhead there are SOF and reconnaissance in large numbers and I am now quite sure that many destroyed vehicles are ambushes from these that the spearhead then passes. Now it\u2019s about getting the logistics along as well. Someone mentioned artillery, but it\u2019s not needed because we have HIMARS and CAS that can keep up at this pace and clear the ground.<\/p>\n

I think right now Russian reinforcements first run into forward SOF that slow them down and then their intelligence situation is so poor that they crash straight into Ukraine\u2019s front line that has already passed the town they were supposed to occupy. Then they have to try to retreat and then go into improvised defense only to be overrun immediately.
\nThere won\u2019t be a hard stop in the area north of Severodonetsk, the lighter red area on the Deepstate maps.
\nProvided that Ukraine defends northward.<\/p>\n

This has happened (while we slept\u2026)
\n– Ukraine is now deep in the town of Kupiansk, probably the whole settlement west of the river so the Russians have to hold the eastern side.
\n– Ukraine has already started crossing the Oskil River between Kupiansk \u2013 Izyum, probably infantry.
\n– Ukraine has encircled the units in Izyum, it\u2019s a tight encirclement.
\n– Ukraine has started moving NE from the Lyman \u2013 Yampil area, still fighting over the town of Lyman.
\n– The Russians are going on the defensive in Svatove \u2013 which signals where they think Ukraine will strike next.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has just cut the entire NS supply route and Svatove is a major supply base that will probably fall soon if you look at the last few days.<\/p>\n

The next NS supply line goes outside Ukraine\u2019s border but if you take the next step Lysychansk \u2013 Severodonetsk it\u2019s infiltration distance for SOF and HIMARS range from Lysychansk (I think).
\nSo expect an attack on Lysychansk \u2013 Severodonetsk to choke off all supplies to the darkest Donbass, the southern front, and Crimea. Then HIMARS will probably be used to eliminate the supplies that remain in Crimea and Rostov-on-Don.
\nAnd according to Solros2022 this is now underway.
\nYesterday pro-Russian channels reported a Ukrainian buildup towards Lysychansk but I didn\u2019t include it because of the source. However, Girkin usually provides credible information if you are cautious and Lysychansk is an obvious target so he\u2019s probably close to the truth.
\nThe Russians pulled units from there a few days ago\u2026<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also about time to dust off the old chess move \u2013 retake Melitopol or Mariupol, encircle +60% of Russian units and all elite units west of that and cut the Kerch Bridge. The Russians are now digging as deep trenches as they can along the entire southern front because if Izyum was bad, losing Melitopol or Mariupol is game over, a chess move they can\u2019t recover from.<\/p>\n

The other high priority on the to-do list should be to build up a defense northward while working east up north, you probably don\u2019t want a spontaneous attack from a Russian division commander cutting everything straight in the flank and disrupting the advance.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s highest on my risk list right now is whether Ukraine can maintain momentum over time here, 2-3 more weeks are probably necessary to achieve something bigger than just Izyum and Kherson which the Russians could theoretically absorb (though maybe not with a bit of luck\u2026)<\/p>\n

Can we say Kuwait Highway 2.0 now or should we wait a bit longer, I think Izyum fits that \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

A couple in the thread, Micke among others, have been insisting on mechanized warfare and its advantages and we on the other side (who thought we knew better) guessed that Ukraine would move cautiously tactically, encircle etc. I think we got confirmation of our theory at Kherson so it\u2019s only fair to give you credit after the lightning offensive on the northern front, I only remember Micke but you others know who you are \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Then it\u2019s positive-positive all the way, there will always be a pause in fighting and then the Russians will have to do something with their last reserves inside Russian territory in the north and then hesitation will set in, the old \u201cit can\u2019t possibly continue like this, it was lucky they got this far\u201d.<\/p>\n

Then we remember that about 30,000 Russians or more are now at various stages of being written off and that Ukraine hasn\u2019t suffered catastrophic losses so they can continue the offensive with the same brigades after rest, the balance of power has just changed dramatically to Russia\u2019s disadvantage and if they previously had trouble plugging the holes they will soon have to choose what to defend.<\/p>\n

I hope they are stupid enough to choose Crimea and think they can hold on there and get some kind of peace solution. To do that they would presumably have to deprioritize Donbass.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is probably just a couple of lousy decisions by the psychotic bunker dwarf away from winning the war, Kherson was the first and sending down the 3rd Army Corps to Crimea for an offensive the second. Now you could say in hindsight that starting the special operation at all was the biggest mistake.<\/p>\n

Then we should spare a thought for the poor colonel who has to report all this to Putin (and survive) as well as the Russian command. If the mood was bad there after Kherson started, by now they are probably looking for a chance to seek asylum in a third country. The psychotic bunker dwarf is probably only a few days away from calling in the FSB chief, screaming and handing over a long handwritten list of names (the entire Russian command) and demanding immediate court-martial for treason. Since he was so upset when writing the list there were many misspellings and to be safe the FSB will then shoot all senior officers with that surname but different first names so there will probably be a major purge in the Russian officer corps.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:55<\/h3>\n

I got a bit shaken when we were sitting and discussing that the Russians would go on the offensive in Kherson and the Southern front and all the trains with T80, BTR90 and Pion got out of sync \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Yes, Ukraine is on the risk list to lose momentum but so far there are no signs of that. Russian collapse is definitely one of the bubbles that has now risen a bit higher, Putin dangling from his feet at a gas station has also been moved up a few notches. That is naturally the purpose of these two offensives, to shake up the Russians and see if something interesting happens.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:10<\/h2>\n

The big question is whether the Russians have evacuated the Izyum area or not. That the city of Izyum was undefended does not mean that they are not\/were not further south and in the forests around Izyum, there have been fights until now south of Izyum and the Guards armor was ordered to go on defense and Izyum was reinforced with helicopter landing\/airborne landing.<\/p>\n

The day before yesterday we discussed that Ukraine had infiltrated SOF in the forest area south of the city of Oskil but then it became obsolete when they instead took the city of Oskil.<\/p>\n

After that, there was only one intersection left, a railway bridge further south unless they have laid pontoon bridges. However, we have not seen columns with 10 battalions of guards armor driving east.<\/p>\n

My money is on that a large part of Izyum’s proud imperialist Russian defenders are hiding in the forests NW, S, E of the city of Izyum and maybe partly making their way through the forest area S of the city of Oskil. SOF is making life hard for them and give it a couple of days and we will have a larger flock of angry Russian prisoners of war at Izyum. Then it is important that we write to everyone who posts pictures and videos of them that it is a war crime according to the Geneva Convention and they must take them down.<\/p>\n

The film below is anecdotal and one should not draw too big conclusions from it but I do anyway \ud83d\ude42
\nIf the film is correct that the Russians are retreating and it is Kupiansk seen in the background then Ukraine has gained a foothold on the eastern side of the Oskil river directly. Then the bridge demolition was not by Ukraine to prevent Russian reinforcements but by the Russians to delay Ukraine.
\nIf that is the case, the entire northern area is now open and it takes the time it takes to drive a BTR forward. Defense northwards will be today’s mantra.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1568491203049431040?s=20&t=yPFwm-qECidnnAacAT1SHA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:04<\/h2>\n

Hasseklas wrote regarding Kreminna above and then it was time to run and look at the map because it is a name you don’t hear often.
\nSurely we have heard something about an attack northwards from before Kupiansk?
\nTrying to piece this together and a very likely scenario is, as Hasseklas writes, several wedges forward eastwards, now or later.<\/p>\n

A way too big notch but if it is true that the Russians leave Kupiansk at 90 km\/h then the next line they reasonably try to set up is NS and goes through Svatove down to Kreminna. We know since yesterday that they are reinforcing Svatove now and they moved units through Svatove the day before yesterday and units are coming up from Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Reasonably, by Russian standards, they have now very quickly abandoned trying to reinforce Kupiansk and Izyum or hold the Oskil river to instead move units into the new defense line Kreminna \u2013 Svatove – Troitske and try to prepare a defense. Partly the guards units in Izyum were ordered to defend and then there was a helicopter landing of units into Izyum \u2013 a quick about-face and I thought they would at least try to hold the Oskil river. That could signal that the Russians are weaker here than even we guess?<\/p>\n

The line is at a reasonable distance from the breakthrough and basically only has the value of trying to prevent a Ukrainian offensive.<\/p>\n

If you ask me, the Russians might as well abandon this entire area already now but maybe we are not there yet, I do not see that they see the value in defending this area (yet) as it is only maintenance-related and not a strategic area to go all in on.<\/p>\n

I BELIEVE that the unit maps are wrong, the area east of Severedonetsk has probably been drained of BTGs as soon as they recovered but they remain there on the unit maps. Otherwise, one could have stopped the fan expansion from Ozerne because there should then be over 30 BTGs nearby but it seems Ukraine has punched a hole in the defense quite immediately and is pressing NE and E. Ozerne fell before the Izyum offensive started so there was time to react.<\/p>\n

Reinforcements from Belgorod\/Russia are now not really coming down to the Svatove line without covering a long distance and if Ukraine presses north from Kupiansk towards Troitske and north in the area between Kupiansk \u2013 Kharkiv then those units will be needed there for the simple reason that a few miles away lies Russia and Belgorod, one cannot risk Belgorod being captured by Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Simply put, the only reserve now is the battalions that have been resting after the Lysychansk offensive but we already hear reports that Lysychansk is about to fall, or at least that Ukraine is advancing in the direction of Lysychansk.<\/p>\n

Thus, I believe the possibility for the Russians to build a sustainable defense on the NS line Troitske \u2013 Svatove \u2013 Kreminna is minimal, they barely have enough to defend the three cities and probably leave the terrain in between largely undefended or poorly defended. It is a natural defense line on par with the Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut line but they do not have time or units to build the defense.<\/p>\n

Kreminna will be bypassed directly by going over Pryvillia with infantry and then north of that, they probably have defense in Svatove but since it lies in the middle they just bypass the city and get a nice motti if the Russians are not alert.<\/p>\n

Troitske is up towards the Russian border and there is a risk that reinforcements arrive so there might be some fighting there but for that we have 777.<\/p>\n

My take on this \u2013 Ukraine defends all the time northwards with NG and territorial and runs the maneuver brigades eastwards with SOF and the reconnaissance screen in front as fast as they can run (yes they ride pickups but that sounded tougher) and CAS + HIMARS strike all targets they can reach.<\/p>\n

Ukraine does not stop, they keep pushing nonstop and try to reach the NS defense line Kreminna \u2013 Svatove \u2013 Troitske as quickly as possible to deny the Russians the chance to set up a defense, either the Russians retreat in time or there will be encirclements and death.<\/p>\n

After that, the Russians’ capacity in this area N and NE of Severedonetsk is finished, probably they will abandon the whole area or Ukraine can calmly retake all remaining terrain by pushing the last Russians ahead of them.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine starts the chess move, they will probably immediately abandon this area and try to get units down there or similar.<\/p>\n

So now we have the revolving door in a horizontal position on the maps, and then it’s probably time to go down into the darkest Donbass from the north?
\nAll the time, maneuver brigades that have been in defense are being freed up, for example at Izyum. Six elite brigades that can now be sent east as soon as the Russians have surrendered.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:06<\/h3>\n

If it is true that the Russians are abandoning Svatove, then by definition they have abandoned the last possible defensive line in this area north and northeast of Severodonetsk, and it is just for Ukraine to step on the gas. And here someone has been working on a post for half an hour without reading anything.
\nThe revolving door is on.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:17<\/h3>\n

The southern front is probably still under opsec, so we have to hold back, but if the partisans come out of the shadows, it is with a purpose, and if Melitopol or Mariupol fall, then it is a chess move Putin cannot recover from, especially given how things look right now\u2026
\nThat blow and the war is over.
\nI still think it looks like most maneuver brigades are near Volnovakha, but they may have already transferred some from the Kherson front if the Russians start running out of will to die here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:28<\/h2>\n

Pro-Russian, poison spreader IntelS, I have been waiting for this since February, the other is when the Svenskby side will write that Ukrainian SOF are in the village.
\nThis guy is the most fanatical Russia supporter out there, and when he starts to waver, then we know it\u2019s seriously bad.
\nHe is sugarcoating the Russian pig quite heavily here, but the panic you read between the lines\u2026<\/p>\n

The next thing coming from a pro-Russian blogger near you is \u2013
\n-it must have been NATO forces that attacked
\n-we would have won without NATO
\n-it\u2019s all the EU and NATO\u2019s fault.
\n-cheating.<\/p>\n

\u201dToday and the next few days we will not receive the most joyful news, and crests will dump gigabytes of photos and videos from the settlements we left behind. Kupyansk has been abandoned and, in fact, we cannot hold out on the right bank of the Oskol River now. I will say this, the decision to withdraw our troops is a military necessity that has prevailed over political expediency, and we must pay tribute to the fact that he who gave the order to withdraw showed courage.<\/p>\n

The overslept counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Balakley-Izyum sector, the state of the troops in this area, the lies in the reports to the top, let those who are supposed to deal with all this. I repeat, in the current conditions, an organized withdrawal is the only right decision. And thank God that despite serious territorial losses, our losses in personnel are very small, especially considering the scope of the operation.<\/p>\n

In our history, there were the most difficult defeats, after some we became stronger and repaid the enemy a hundredfold, after others, the country itself slipped into disaster. The main thing now is to understand that the Izyum-Balakley battle is Narva, and not Tsushima or Mukden. No need to sprinkle ashes on your head, look for traitors and build conspiracy theories. Such searches lead to a false path, which not only does not correct mistakes, but also aggravates them. We must calmly analyze what happened and realize that there is a difficult war with a strong enemy\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:40<\/h2>\n

You almost forget Kherson in all this, but we got early reports that HIMARS targeted ferry camps and pontoon bridges, so Kherson Cat presents Kuwait Highway 2.0.
\nWe will see so many videos of burned-out convoys and captured vehicles going forward that it will become almost as boring as watching depots blowing up.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1568349968548728836?s=20&t=kpBSHG5tAddqxyCQvqqR_g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:05<\/h3>\n

To avoid the hottest discussions, I avoid making party politics out of the undelivered CV90s, but right now there is a purely embarrassing dissonance between what is happening and what Sweden is doing. We have been told that those in power always do what is right when needed, and if we can spare CV90s, then it is done, and that decision is right.
\nI then think the same must have applied to nuclear power because those in power always do what is right, so we have gotten the electricity price we should have, or something.
\nMy world is that we are dithering about something that is the clearest thing I have ever seen, there is only upside and the risk is minimal.
\nIn a month or so, the military will leak that they wanted to send CV90s but politics put the lid on it (no names mentioned).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:47<\/h2>\n

Now one almost dares to think about the post-war period and hopes that the Ukrainians will prove to be as solution-oriented and free thinkers in civilian life as in the war. This country really has the chance to become one of Europe\u2019s better countries if they want.<\/p>\n

If the Russians have abandoned Svatove, which is rumored and then debunked, then all terrain from Kharkiv to east of Severodonetsk has been abandoned by the Russians and can be retaken by Ukraine. But we don\u2019t know if they have given up Svatove yet?<\/p>\n

Gregg talks about Luhansk, so of course that is where thoughts go, and it is logical now when\/if the revolving door is in a horizontal position over by Severodonetsk to continue towards Luhansk.<\/p>\n

The shorter the front becomes, the more maneuver brigades are freed up; there were about 20 brigades around Izyum. It is guessed that the northern front is manned by territorial forces and the National Guard, plus a rapid reaction force of battalion size behind that covers a couple of brigades or something.<\/p>\n

Then there is an ENORMOUS striking power to push straight south here in an area the Russians have not had to fortify for several months and where there are now no units to stop the offensive, what can DPR and LPR put up against it, the Somali Battalion?<\/p>\n

I am also keeping an eye on the southern front; if we get confirmation that either Mariupol or Melitopol has been taken, then the war is over, or we have reached the \u201cbeginning of the end,\u201d because the Russians will not recover from that chess move.<\/p>\n

There is also a serious punch prepared against the Donetsk area, and now it is lively at the airport; one should really just to annoy go and capture Rostov-on-Don.<\/p>\n

The whole front is shaking right now, and within a few days, another front section will break, that is my stable guess.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:05<\/h3>\n

I think they are stepping on the gas, momentum is what matters here, and they rotate where they can.
\nThey can probably ride this adrenaline kick for a few days, and there are pauses in fighting and it is possible to sleep in the vehicles.
\nI have seen how they leapfrog each other and the unit they pass is lying in a ditch sleeping.
\nThis can go on like this for quite a while.
\n-Waiting is 90% of a war or something like that, and then you sleep.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:55<\/h3>\n

Oh Bess, it wouldn\u2019t be entirely wrong if that dark horse sailed up as the winner \ud83d\ude42
\nNow I\u2019m not very used to Russian palace coups, but isn\u2019t it customary to play Swan Lake in black and white on TV?<\/p>\n

Please post all the rumors you hear, now one really gets lively again here on a Saturday evening just when it was time to wind down with a sangria.
\nToday hasn\u2019t gone well, I have assembled a Billy bookshelf along an entire wall with a corner section and run to the computer, so finally I assembled the 80cm one we were supposed to return and got a very subtle hint \u201cmaybe you\u2019ve been a bit too focused on Ukraine,\u201d strike one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:09<\/h3>\n

That might perhaps explain why units all the way over in Luhansk have started retreating towards the Russian border, I haven’t dared to post it because of the source.<\/p>\n

Could the offensive have been coordinated with the palace coup guys in Moscow and that\u2019s why we got Intelligence Service Day?
\nOr has it been simmering and waiting for the right moment.<\/p>\n

You probably shouldn\u2019t eat any hats Bess because this dark horse has risen quite high in the past week, it\u2019s definitely on the cards. However, you can put it on your CV going forward and get a job at S\u00e4po.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:34<\/h3>\n

That refers to captured armor and if one guesses it\u2019s about 10 BTG guard armor around Izyum, 8 armored battalions is about 30-40 tanks x 7 and then everything else they ran over since Balakliia?
\n7000 prisoners also sounds reasonable.
\nA third of remaining MBTs.
\nSounds a bit high though but we\u2019ll allow Ukraine that.<\/p>\n

But now that doesn\u2019t add up because a general in the Russian Empire\u2019s shining army has informed us that they have conducted a tactical retreat from Izyum and moved all units to Donetsk.<\/p>\n

The funniest thing is that this is the story the responsible chief in Izyum has told his superior to avoid explaining why Ukraine has captured the above amount of materiel and taken all his soldiers who ran around in the forests of Izyum until they got tired and sluggish and sat down to smoke on a stump.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:40<\/h2>\n

I thought I had spammed the thread enough for the evening and would try the Twitter feed of our media but news about Ukraine is conspicuously absent so I\u2019m staying here. How is that possible?
\nToday is a couple of days since the Russian Empire\u2019s shining collapse began.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:02 The internet went down yesterday and Cornucopia got hacked, it was hard to release that energy during the evening 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