{"id":6768,"date":"2022-09-14T10:09:51","date_gmt":"2022-09-14T08:09:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-09-14-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T10:40:41","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T08:40:41","slug":"2022-09-14-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-09-14-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-09-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

As Argus has somewhat touched upon, it is very interesting to see what Putin’s next general order will be.
\nThe current one, which was to take Donetsk Oblast, expires tomorrow and the units that can still seem to be attacking.
\nSomewhat incomprehensible but true.<\/p>\n

There has also been an order given to retreat from Kharkiv Oblast, which likely did not come from Putin, Shoigu, or Gerasimov but further down the chain (Shoigu, who knows how many orders he gives but is part of the troika).<\/p>\n

Has he taken stock of the situation on the ground and will order a hedgehog defense along the entire front?
\nMy hope is that he either demands relief\/defense of Kherson to prevent another humiliating blow or that he demands that Crimea be defended. Both would drain Donbass and the southern front of units.<\/p>\n

If he wants to try to regain the initiative through a shining all-out imperialist Russian proud offensive, no one will be happier than Ukraine, but one can hardly dare to hope for that \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I still suspect that the Russians did not manage to retreat in an organized manner from the Izyum pocket.
\nIt simply went too fast, first the guards prepared to go on defense, then there was a helicopter with reinforcements and then the same night the town of Oskil was taken and all that was left was a railway bridge over the Oskil river that was probably destroyed.<\/p>\n

The footage we saw of retreating Russians seemed to be beside the railway bridge south of Oskil which was cut, it was said to be at Izyum, could also be further north.
\nLeft behind materiel should reasonably be due to the bridge not supporting such heavy vehicles and it was only the battalion\/battalions defending the town of Izyum itself that slipped away when they realized that Oskil was taken.<\/p>\n

I don’t believe that the units south of Seversky Donets and in the forests kept up with that turnaround.
\nWe are starting to get the losses from the Izyum offensive, these are combined figures so from other fronts as well but they took a good beating in materiel.
\nIn addition comes all captured materiel, now Erik14 posted that it was two brigades’ worth of materiel according to Ukrainian official sources, that is hundreds of tanks and IFVs.
\nAnd eventually, when they have hunted down the scavenger camps in the forests west, south, east of Izyum and the defense south of Seversky Donets, we will know the number of captured.<\/p>\n

If you ask me, the prisoners in the Izyum offensive will number in the thousands, this was a sensational first big win, incredible since our best scenario was a slow strangulation but they overran +10 guards battalions in 3 days (if you are to believe the unit maps).
\nWe have guessed that some units were pulled away from Izyum earlier but the Twitter rumor that never dies is that the 1st Shock Army remained and was eliminated and that alone was almost 10 BTGs and then all the rear (it could be that the rear was in Izyum and fled the field?)
\nThis is supported by pro-Russian sites on the same day the town of Oskil was taken reporting that the Izyum Russians were ordered to go on defense.<\/p>\n

Now it’s daily Gregg but he posted two fantastic puzzle pieces yesterday, firstly he wrote that territorial and NG are to handle the surveillance of the northern front so the maneuver brigades are freed up for other fun (he is home guard and should know this), that was exactly what we guessed they would do with some battalion-sized task force from a maneuver brigade behind over a stretch. Just around Izyum there were +20 maneuver brigades either rushing east now or preparing for the revolving door to slam down towards Luhansk from the north.<\/p>\n

The second was that he confirmed that Ukraine has not stopped at the Oskil river as we are led to believe because the unit maps stopped updating, that was also something we thought was reasonable and believed because it would be logical to breathe down the retreating Russians’ necks so they don’t have time to go into organized defense.
\nWhat I take from his post is that they crossed at Borova and are pushing towards Svatove and south of that and cutting through the defense quite easily.<\/p>\n

However, it does not seem to be true that the Russians have abandoned the entire area in Luhansk Oblast north of Luhansk, there were many vehicles driving like car thieves towards east and south and rumors but we said that when we get photographic evidence that Ukraine is in Svatove then we can confirm that line has been abandoned and then probably Luhansk Oblast north of Luhansk has been abandoned. We do not have photographic evidence and it has been a bit too long for it to be just driving on the highway straight into the town.<\/p>\n

My guess is that the Russians have not received orders (today) to give up Luhansk Oblast north of Luhansk because then it would have gone faster to roll into Svatove. However, the Russians’ first round of reinforcements was swept away because Ukraine had come too far so they drove straight into advancing Ukrainian units and then SOF made life hard for them.
\nThe logical thing would have been if they tried to go on defense along Oskil but Ukraine crossed immediately, presumably Senkove and at the town of Oskil. You remember the footage of retreat from Kupiansk quite directly and Ukraine took the eastern part of the town immediately.<\/p>\n

If it now becomes a delaying battle, one must get bridge layers and infiltrate all SOF and reconnaissance again, one must outmaneuver the Russians by crossing the rivers at undefended places and bypass the pockets of defense that subsequent units fight down, for example.<\/p>\n

What could happen now is that they go on defense in villages between the Oskil river and up to the NS defense line Troitske \u2013 Svatove \u2013 Kreminna to give others time to prepare defense on that line?
\nIf I have interpreted this correctly, Kreminna has already been passed, overflown?<\/p>\n

Svatove also sits like a small island in the middle of nowhere and since the Russians will not manage (numbers and competence) to build a defense LINE, Svatove will become a hedgehog that will either be encircled or abandoned as soon as encirclement is a threat and that will go fast.
\nAccording to Gregg, they are quite close to Svatove now but of course it could be a mix of place names again in the worst case so I dare not put the highest gear. Photographic evidence from Svatove or a community near Svatove is awaited.<\/p>\n

If you are to think like an ethnic Russian now, there is some value in not retreating towards Luhansk but retreating north towards Troitske, it is closer to home. So it can be thought that there will be a delaying battle up to Troitske which is a bit harder to take, lies right up against the border and cannot be overflown unless you enter Russia.<\/p>\n

If the Russians want to continue conducting delaying battles in Luhansk Oblast north of the town of Luhansk, the next line after Svatove along the NS flowing Aidar river which passes Starobilsk if they abandon Troitske-Svatove-Kreminna.
\nOne way to make this line completely obsolete would be if Ukraine retook Severedonetsk and then went straight on Luhansk with the brigades now freed up and then the Russians can sit in that line until they get tired.<\/p>\n

At some point, whether it is a threat to Luhansk, a threat to Melitopol\/Mariupol, or something else, the Russian command (at some level..) will consider that Luhansk Oblast north of Luhansk has no strategic value and they will abandon all terrain north of Luhansk because they need the units to plug some other gap.
\nRight now, however, it seems to be some kind of delaying battle going on.<\/p>\n

Persistent rumors of further advances south of Davyidiv Brid, the most likely has always been an advance towards Khozatske from Davyidiv Brid, they are defending the NS route down to Khozatske and spreading out like a fan to the E, SE, S and that seems to be what is happening. We have long since written off the Kherson Russians and said that it was mostly those who didn\u2019t understand it and that they might starve to death over time.<\/p>\n

However, I am beginning to see a value in bad news being followed by bad news and if one can achieve a surrender of the Russians east \/ \u201cinside\u201d Inhulets then they have achieved another demoralizing defeat that might lower the fighting spirit at the next front. If nothing else, it frees up 6-7 maneuver brigades that can be moved to the southern front (or the wildcard crossing the Dnieper, but that is a wildcard).
\nIf one can also achieve a surrender of the Kherson Russians on the west side of Inhulets then it\u2019s a full jackpot but it would not be worth sacrificing several brigades in that process for a quick win, Ukraine would probably think, roughly.<\/p>\n

Does anyone believe that the Russians can withstand +20 additional brigades from Izyum that will now strike Donbass from the north with a dull blow or the +6-7 brigades soon standing and doing squats at the southern front for a devastating push towards Melitopol, Mariupol and maybe the city of Donetsk.<\/p>\n

It seems to be true that Russian reserves in Russia are not so eager for frontline service and then the force ratios have just exploded in Ukraine\u2019s favor and the timeline can only be short to fairly short. It is impossible for the Russians to make a long game out of this now. The only thing I could imagine is a massive attack from the north but they just pulled away 3 Army corps so there is nothing to attack with. Lukas has kept the style of the friend who betrays and there\u2019s no way he would change now after Izyum and Kherson.<\/p>\n

I give a thought to the 45th Air Assault Brigade stationed down in Galatia, they must cry themselves to sleep every day about being kept out of the fighting (if they are there, the ongoing discussion) but they should probably now be deployed and a tired unit rotated there, I think.
\nOtherwise, Ukraine seems to have actually managed Izyum with a battering ram from a recently arrived armored brigade and units that have been at the front. There is still an offensive reserve of 4-5 brigades that we have not yet seen in combat.
\nThat not all brigades are at the active front after this is very positive, there are\/will be more.
\nPositive-Positive is what applies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

There was a bit of a mistake in this paragraph, it should have been W, SW, S.
\nPersistent rumors of further advances south of Davyidiv Brid, the most likely has always been an advance towards Khozatske from Davyidiv Brid, they are defending the NS route down to Khozatske and spreading out like a fan to the E, SE, S and that seems to be what is happening. We have long since written off the Kherson Russians and said that it was mostly those who didn\u2019t understand it and that they might starve to death over time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I see two types of reports, those that have completely stopped at the Oskil River and then various puzzle pieces of information that I interpret as them having gone further. However, it is not empty of Russians east of the Oskil River.
\nFor example, there was some fighting down in Lyman recently which they reported as completely liberated earlier and there are conflict points in various communities northward east of the Oskil River.<\/p>\n

All the sources I rely on are not official or the really heavy ones like deepstatemap so it should be called more of a feeling for now but it seems quite clear that the Russians did not evacuate Luhansk oblast north of Luhansk on their own accord directly.<\/p>\n

It may also be that it is the front line, SOF and reconnaissance pushing forward and that it is rear units they are clashing with, I don\u2019t know except that there is Ukrainian presence east of the Oskil River and some Russians here and there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

You want it to be true and sometimes it is true but yes, Igor\u2019s letters actually have an incredible similarity to QAnon in the setup which has fascinated me a bit and the same as with QAnon, over time everything turns out to be air but then the next letter has already come so everyone is waiting for the next end date a month ahead and have forgotten that the last letter didn\u2019t materialize and so it goes on. Feels like it was started for a purpose somewhat like Girkin who runs his race for a purpose.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Perfect if that\u2019s the case but I think it seems quite high?
\nI have probably thought between 5,000 \u2013 10,000 in the area between Kupiansk and down to Izyum in total.<\/p>\n

He retweets Chuck Pfarrer who is absolutely the most positive of all so an extreme (I do believe there are Ukrainians east of the Oskil River so there he is probably right in my opinion).<\/p>\n

Could it be that we have missed some other information like a large encircled unit north of Kharkiv or so, I haven\u2019t read anything.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

On topic, I just went in and read pro-Russian forums and they have repelled all attacks at Davyidiv Brid and hold the Oskil River with massive amounts of artillery and air, Ukraine is losing brigades as we speak.<\/p>\n

You become completely disillusioned and ready for doom and Ukraine\u2019s capitulation until you remember that Ukraine just overran the 1st Shock Army in two days.<\/p>\n

They also take pictures of destroyed Russian equipment\/soldiers and write that they are dead Ukrainians. If one were pro-Russian, one would say that Ukraine took pictures of their own and posted them as Russian losses.<\/p>\n

Well done.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I don\u2019t think Putin can mobilize or send more units to Ukraine that could win the war for the simple reason that a million-man army would have caused a revolution.<\/p>\n

It is therefore the end of escalation from Russia\u2019s side is my guess.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

If you only have Russian propaganda to rely on or are a Russian who wants it to be true, you probably sit there and actually believe it quite soon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

That contradicts everything we have learned about the Southern front, they have been dug in for about a month into the war, they have recently pushed in BTGs for an offensive and on the unit maps they barely fit down there, stacked on top of each other.<\/p>\n

Mariupol is not part of Zaporizhzhia and against Volnovakha they might possibly be weak but not in the direction of Vasylivka.<\/p>\n

Either I have completely mixed it up, which would be perfect, or they are trying a trick like Girkin \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ukraine wins the media war every day
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/DefenceU\/status\/1569872311557267459?s=20&t=YaFLeclkXoBR5zx71S6G1Q<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It is one of the last cards they have left to play to cultivate a stab-in-the-back legend.
\nIt does not necessarily mean escalation now but it paves the way for round 3 (unless they manage to launch another offensive before they get pushed out).<\/p>\n

Since the volunteer battalions refuse to go to Ukraine, a mobilization right now would probably have the opposite effect and might lead to unrest within the country, but if you can set the narrative for why you lost, you can let the psyops mills grind and come back over time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

LTSTAHL, great analysis +1.<\/p>\n

Yes, a figure of 3500 tanks has been used as a truth and we are almost there if we count losses and what the Russians have deployed in Ukraine. The last two weeks have really taken a toll on them so there might really be a shortage, it is somewhat key equipment that you don’t want to run out of.<\/p>\n

Then came this year’s conscripts, total forced recruitment in LPR\/DPR and they sent down the last battalions from the regiments, the training battalions, I believe.<\/p>\n

They took from Syria, Georgia and all other hotspots and now we see that they have weakened a bit too much everywhere.<\/p>\n

Then the remaining battalions did not want to go and die in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

I share your view on this and how reinforcements will go forward, every big loss becomes a big hole in the pie and less left to defend with while Ukraine replenishes manpower and equipment.<\/p>\n

I don’t think general mobilization will work because then there will be a revolution.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now they have captured an intact T62, it is almost on the same level as capturing a case of nitroglycerin bottles, the fact that it hasn’t thrown a turret is somewhat historic.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/TpyxaNews\/status\/1570054421916049408?s=20&t=VLLEHelKmIARI-DEaYaccg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now things are really starting to move.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/vtchakarova\/status\/1570137823193317376?s=46&t=-AZkIdiKC6C0QfEVkQN0qg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Best teacher.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/eminedzheppar\/status\/1570002426333216769?s=46&t=-AZkIdiKC6C0QfEVkQN0qg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:27 \u2013 Johan No.1 As Argus has somewhat touched upon, it is very interesting to see what Putin’s next general 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