{"id":6772,"date":"2022-09-16T09:48:26","date_gmt":"2022-09-16T07:48:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-09-16-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T10:41:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T08:41:19","slug":"2022-09-16-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-09-16-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-09-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:58<\/h2>\n

Maybe one should give Aftonbladet a chance to comment on their previous attempts at character assassination of those who claimed that the Russians would massacre their way through any country if given the chance.
\nThe tortured and murdered children and Bucha set the tone at the beginning and we have suspected it would be worse, but this is somewhat incomprehensible. The number of civilians killed will far exceed combat losses.<\/p>\n

One thing that is clear to me is that if Ukraine had given up, this would have happened all over the country, and if Lukash had gone down towards Lviv and encircled Ukraine, it would have been this century’s great massacre.<\/p>\n

At the same time as Russian psyops painted a rosy picture of paradise Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Then I can probably think that why should everyone – everywhere and some provinces be forced to continue to live like this as in Bucha and Izyum, doesn’t the free West have a moral responsibility to also help them now that the opportunity is offered.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:54<\/h2>\n

For those who bother to count on the unit maps, it seems that the Russians may have lost 9-10 BTGs in the Izyum offensive and there should eventually be thousands of prisoners in the aftermath here, 5,000 or more. This is the Izyum pocket itself (up to Kupiansk). I have guessed that the Russians north of Kharkiv retreated or do we have information about captives there?
\nWhat is not visible on the unit maps is all the Rosgvardia et.al who were also encircled.<\/p>\n

I think it seems clear that the Russians did not abandon Luhansk oblast north of Luhansk and really intend to fight over the potato fields. Since Ukraine has not pressed on the Southern front yet, I can actually understand that decision even if the terrain is quite nothing compared to Donbass and Crimea but they probably don\u2019t have to choose yet\u2026
\nYes, Svatove and the supply base there, if it falls it will be unfortunate but there is also supply in Rostov-na-Don which is exploding as we speak and the important railway into Svatove is already cut but Starobilsk still exists with that track.<\/p>\n

It would have been fun if the Russians abandoned that area north of Luhansk too but it is also good that they did not \u2013 less area means higher density of units and if they choose to defend these potato fields it ties up troops that would have been needed elsewhere.
\nNow I can imagine that the Russian command thinks like this \u2013 we tie up Ukrainian troops, we have a buffer against Luhansk, we secure NS supply and we have not made the bunker dwarf completely crazy (yet), there is still time to submit an asylum application and get out of this.<\/p>\n

I can also understand that it has “got stuck” a bit east of the Oskil river, now it\u2019s Gregg again but in lack of anything else (opsec there too now?) it has to be that, he has dropped some place names earlier and now reported that they have not reached Luhansk Oblast, so they are a bit east of the Oskil river but not far enough to make it exciting. They are probably pressing on and the Russians are conducting a delaying battle with the aim of falling back first to the NS line through Svatove and then if needed the NS line through Starobilsk. The bridgehead the Russians can NEVER retake, it\u2019s forest and they need to attack over farmland.
\n-The Russian version of a delaying battle is to stand in one place, get a few vehicles knocked out by 777, fall back a kilometer or so and repeat the rolling circus until there are no vehicles left, without having fired a shot at a single Ukrainian.<\/p>\n

Ukraine needed partly to get units over the Oskil river and then infiltrate all their SOF and reconnaissance. There are plenty of small watercourses east of the Oskil river and you probably need bridging equipment to bypass defenses in channeling terrain and then get enough units forward.<\/p>\n

The reason it (certainly) stopped is that according to the unit maps, the Russians have now rushed almost everything they had available there. It became a bit like at Kherson, there were 8 BTGs there when Ukraine attacked and then it was 27 BTGs, and before you understood that you wondered why it stopped.
\nWe speculated whether the Russians had already earlier pulled BTGs from Severodonetsk and sent them south so there would be no reserves, that does not seem to have been the case. However, they have now regrouped them north for the line parallel to the Oskil river some distance east of it in a delaying battle eastward.<\/p>\n

This area of Luhansk Oblast north of Luhansk is, just like Kherson, lost for the Russians, it will just take time, that gong can probably be struck today if it hasn’t been done earlier because the Oskil river has been crossed and there was no prepared defense in that area until a few days ago.
\nIt will likely be isolated islands of defense rather than entire lines because this area has not been fortified before, it will probably also be too far between the islands of defense to get a Kherson efficiency where they overlap each other.
\nThis will grind on over time unless a decision is made to abandon the potato fields.<\/p>\n

Now comes the next exciting opening with a limited time window \u2013 since the Russians cannot cover all front sections, they have now weakened Lysychansk \u2013 Severodonetsk to plug the holes up northeast of Oskil. They rushed up everything they thought they could spare northwards.
\nIf Ukraine manages to take Lysychansk \u2013 Severodonetsk and use it as an anchor and then swing down towards Luhansk, Horlivka \u2013 Donetsk and\/or up towards Starobilsk (behind the Svatove line\u2026) it would be really fun \u2013 if nothing else the Russians would immediately abandon the entire area north of Luhansk and be forced to go around everything to save Luhansk but that movement would take a long time.
\nThe units from Kharkiv that survived are probably east of Oskil or on the highway south now.
\nSince Ukraine has freed about twenty brigades, or will soon, there is a big punch to redirect and then we have the last maneuver brigades we have not yet seen in combat.<\/p>\n

Do you think the Russians can attack from the north in the area between Kharkiv \u2013 Kupiansk \u2013 Troitske?
\nWe had thought of the 3rd Army Corps for that but they are at Donbass, Crimea and east of the Oskil river.
\nAre there any other offensive units in reserve we think?
\nThey must have a defense of Belgorod of some brigade or two or are they so confident that there is no threat (the NATO threat that was the reason for the whole war\u2026) that they go all in with everything they have up there?<\/p>\n

Below has been brought up a bit, partly earlier when we talked about buying satellite photos from commercial companies and then lob a 15mm guided grenade into the head of a Russian in a ditch \u2013 that mocking morning to sweep away a BTG.
\nNLWartracker has received donations and been able to buy high resolution images that he then analyzes. It gives an incredibly good insight into how good the intelligence situation Ukraine actually has (better than that), they have coordinates on every buried vehicle on the Kherson front, which are just waiting for an incoming.
\nOpsec prevails but according to small glimpses we get, this is exactly what Ukraine is doing at Kherson and the Southern front right now, T62 is becoming an endangered species and it is sensational that Ukraine captured a vehicle intact for a veteran museum for future generations.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NLwartracker\/status\/1570103551828828161?s=20&t=xI3kfl7wjFcMrMRTK5119Q<\/a><\/p>\n

At Kherson, people are cautiously wondering if the Russians continue to run over reserves?
\nAt least they are not giving up with pontoons, barges, and trying to use the bridges, so they must be getting something across, I think?
\nThey must be bleeding terribly at Kherson right now, the ferry camps are probably constantly under fire and must look like real graveyards, and then they have to go up and bandage on the highway with low-sniffing SU25s.
\nWe know they recently pulled units from the Southern front to Kherson and that the nursing home on wheels is on the move (they are also up east of Oskil, so maybe not the entire army corps that was moved down to Crimea\/Donetsk).
\nThe idea was probably that everything goes on defense on the eastern\/left bank, but with a bit of luck they are still running over to stabilize the fronts on the Dnipro’s right bank (though “bank” sounds quite wrong in this context).<\/p>\n

That would mean they are weakening the southern front; my money is still on Volnovakha \u2013 Novotritske \u2013 Dokuchajevsk and then down with a southeast wedge to Boikivske for a slap that makes the bunker dwarf take two steps back.<\/p>\n

Also a post in yesterday\u2019s thread about crossing the Dnipro, I have zero objectivity on that, it should be added, since I have it on the bubble list and even thought the Enerhodar psyops fit perfectly. However, I think it seems quite reasonable to create a threat in the rear of the southern front. It\u2019s enough to go on defense in communities and grill BTGs when the Russians want to establish a bridgehead if you don\u2019t want to run over armored brigades across the Dnipro and push eastward.<\/p>\n

According to earlier reports, the key is not to lose momentum here; the Russians are a bit shaken but managed to scrape together something that, with some goodwill, can be called a defense east of the Oskil river after a couple of days, so they managed to be emergency reactive. Quite a bit faster and more effective than I had expected; they even got an air bridge with helicopters going almost immediately (or if it was to evacuate high-ranking commanders from Izyum\u2026)<\/p>\n

Now a lot is going badly for the bunker dwarf, Xi Jinping was not in the photo after the meeting, new units refuse to go to Ukraine, mobilization is not working because it would lead to revolution, and the materiel is slowly running out.
\nThere is still materiel, as just yesterday we saw T90s taken out of storage, so in a low-intensity war or frozen conflict the man with the very small feet would have managed, but now it\u2019s full WW2 blitzkrieg and that is not enough.<\/p>\n

Then there is probably an acute lack of competence for most positions; if they ran over the 1st shock army like this and the (somewhat) special units that were supposed to hold the western flank, that must mean they have filled the empty shells after winter\u2019s and summer\u2019s failed offensives and that the quality of the units has dropped dramatically?<\/p>\n

Now we hope Argus is right and that the bunker dwarf will slap the table with a very small hand and order an all-out human wave attack; they are still attacking down towards Bakhmut, so there definitely hasn\u2019t been a general order to defend, but the places where they try to follow orders are getting fewer and fewer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:54<\/h3>\n

Damn, that\u2019s long, I have a life I promise.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:26<\/h3>\n

I think it will have to be bodyshaming Putin for a while now for lack of anything else.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:14<\/h3>\n

Think like this instead \u2013 raped, tortured, and murdered five-year-olds in front of their mothers who were then released into a country near us in 2022, could have been our children and our loved ones.<\/p>\n

With that knowledge, it\u2019s probably time to never drop your guard ever, a mix of professional and conscription in a reasonable balance with a mechanized brigade as an international task force together with one or more SOF units.<\/p>\n

Being able to draw from a pool that has done conscription when you need to scale up is enormously important as soon as there is a larger conflict, so I am absolutely for conscription again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:26<\/h2>\n

Just went through the latest blog update, lucky I had eaten.<\/p>\n

What I always feel is that now Ukraine is taking the fight and nothing is okay with that but they fight back and win.
\nThey will liberate the country, they will utterly humiliate Russia which will become a pariah for a long time to come.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine had done what sooooo many thought at the beginning, give up territory, those territories would have been ethnically cleansed and you would only have been able to watch and read the reports and go completely mad. The Yugoslav war was like that, it went on endlessly with Arkan\u2019s Tigers surrounding villages and killing everyone and it never ended. After a few years, the EU managed to agree on the text in the protesting letter, sort of (a bit sarcastic).<\/p>\n

I have learned an incredible amount in this conflict, perhaps the most important being \u2013 if you want peace, prepare for war, and then that the free West is messy and peace-damaged but when it eventually rises, you don\u2019t want to be on the wrong side. A popular reference will probably be the Enter ones or so.<\/p>\n

With a bit of luck, this became our world war if China refrains from escalating, then the countries on the fence will not throw down the white glove in front of the free West either.<\/p>\n

IF there is an escalation, it will be a very difficult conflict but the free West will come out on top in the end.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:29<\/h2>\n

Erik14 seems to have taken a well-deserved day off so now maybe I get a chance to shine a bit.
\nAt the risk of this being posted, something else would be a bit sensational but the Ukrainian army 2014-2022, what a difference.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/HeliosRunner\/status\/1570492371049259012?s=20&t=NTp5q1JfTmnV-uO0nNdhEQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:33<\/h3>\n

I think that when you have the same weapon systems and similar uniforms, you mark yourself clearly to avoid friendly fire.
\nUkraine changes color between offensives or front sections, probably between offensives, and they use new tape that the Russians haven\u2019t figured out yet.
\nIf you are in static defense, it\u2019s probably not as important, I imagine, because then you know what you have to your right and left and which direction the galloping circus is coming from.
\nThe vehicles are a bit trickier but there are lots of flags waving in the videos.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:58 Maybe one should give Aftonbladet a chance to comment on their previous attempts at character assassination of those who 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