{"id":6796,"date":"2022-09-27T11:47:15","date_gmt":"2022-09-27T09:47:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-09-27-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T10:44:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T08:44:13","slug":"2022-09-27-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-09-27-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-09-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:04<\/h2>\n

Have been sitting on the sidelines skimming the thread\/ Erik14 early birds. The bubbles of revolution and collapse at the fronts go up and then down and you get just as damn disappointed every time. They are like a scratch ticket, suddenly it happens. Right now, you don\u2019t even have the energy to reuse the old favorite \u2013 \u201cwithout moving images and today\u2019s newspaper he doesn\u2019t exist\u201d \u2013 because immediately there comes some link to a news segment where the Bunker Dwarf stands looking all Russian satisfied.<\/p>\n

Went and sniffed around yesterday that the plan is now faltering considerably on the verge of panic, once upon a time the idea was probably that China would back up the territorial integrity of the DPR and LPR so there would be a freeze but that no longer applies, because nobody likes a loser. Putin\u2019s meeting with Xi should reasonably have been about what is now unfolding and not a word from China regarding LPR or DPR. <\/p>\n

Something like this \u2013 if China weighed in, the West would force Ukraine to give up these areas, Germany, France, Italy leading the way. The risk would increase so much that it was decided that some areas would be worth peace in our time (and then round three from Russia etc. so no real peace in the long run and explosive escalation\u2026). Consider here that Putin thought he would have conquered at least Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in about a month or so, there was probably plan A to roll straight into Kiev and a couple of contingencies where the lowest outcome was that they took the terrain east of the Dnieper. <\/p>\n

Now it has become unsynchronized and the pieces fell completely randomly so it crashed. The world is doubled over laughing at ape-straight future soldiers stumbling around and sleeping on the floor with severe rust on their weapons, the referendums were not taken seriously even by the media who like to scare, and things are starting to move in minority areas that are clinically clean of Rosgvardia and Omon.
\nThe question is how much those who started to float that Ukraine should give up land this spring knew about the plans, nothing is easiest to say but then you almost have to answer the question \u2013 Why were they insisting that Ukraine should give up territory when the country was doing very well with its defense and the Russians got stuck? There is a small logical knot there that the usual explanatory models don\u2019t solve.<\/p>\n

All this very funny unfortunately does not mean there will be a quick win unless one of the bubbles suddenly happens, and that is what you hope for every day when you run the news round. As lousy as it looks around mobilization, they are now carrying out a strong reinforcement and if they can build a lot of \u201cthe city of Kherson\u201d over time it will be just as difficult in the darkest Donbass. I was looking at the weather and thought it looked dry until a bit into October and then the damn rains start\u2026 <\/p>\n

When round three of the Kherson offensive started, Ukraine swept away the front line in the area east of Inhulets, both up at Davyidiv Brid and towards Krivoj Rog, especially Krivoj Rog where three BTGs went to zero quite quickly. The Russians brought up more units to plug the holes and the assessment (mine) was that fewer than 10 BTGs remained in that area and that Ukraine would be able to overrun them relatively quickly now that they had gained momentum. Kozatske would be the VDV\u2019s last battle in that area and that bridgehead was to be held as long as practically possible until they put on the rubber ducks over their combat gear, jumped into the water in the deep end and then sank immediately because they hadn\u2019t taken off their combat gear.<\/p>\n

Now when you take a look at the unit maps there are 26 BTGs just in that area east of Inhulets. Some of them are not combat capable, we know that, but it is still far above what was there before, they have squeezed in almost 10 more BTGs. I never have the patience to sit with the exact calculation of who has disappeared and who has arrived but simplified it is probably a couple more brigades in defense.
\nSo the Russians are getting in\/over reinforcements and presumably some maintenance too, it\u2019s been quite a while since the bridges started getting hit by HIMARS.<\/p>\n

Kherson was a trampoline for further attacks on Krivoj Rog and Odessa so presumably they have similar depots as at Izyum and there material for two brigades was taken according to Ukrainian official sources. We are a bit fooled by the videos of mushroom clouds and the word \u201cweapons depot\u201d and then the number 12 or so, sometimes it is front-near storage and when there are big mushroom clouds we get to see it. Izyum was a little eye-opener for me how much material they have.<\/p>\n

The city of Kherson is a veritable fortress. That Ukraine reached Kyselivka (they never actually retook it but the Russians retreated from the settlement) only means that they have a large field down to the defense line at Chornobaivka. IF they advance towards the city of Kherson it should reasonably be from the West. It is all elite units in the city who also probably have it quite comfortable in the urban environment and can hide maintenance where Ukraine cannot HIMARS it.<\/p>\n

The combat leadership asked the bunker dwarf for permission to conduct an orderly retreat \u2013 that means partly that they consider the area lost over time but also that they still have control.<\/p>\n

Phase 1 is actually achieved, the Russians\u2019 best units, +30 BTGs, stand west of the Dnieper River and are denied retreat. The day they try to cross the river Ukraine will go all in with everything they have. The most suitable here would be to maintain pressure but not actively attack the fortifications and take losses, then indirect fire and air that harass the defense. The failed Ukrainian attack the other day was very unfortunate.<\/p>\n

They will not achieve a shock that breaks the Russian army or triggers a revolution by sweeping clean Kherson, they absorbed the loss at Izyum a bit too well unfortunately (so far but anything can happen \ud83d\ude42 ). Ukraine should let time work for them in Kherson and the day it breaks, because it will at some point, then they go all in.
\nWe have seen videos from the ferry camps and crossings and it is pure Kuwait Highway but it really doesn\u2019t matter as long as there is more material to fill up with, and at Izyum there was exactly that so presumably it is not empty of tanks in the darkest Donbass, Kherson or the southern front either.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:11<\/h2>\n

Starting a new post to give the illusion that I have a life.
\nWhat Kherson tells us is that Russians in well-prepared defense are a bit tricky to break through. East of Inhulets the terrain is similar to the Southern front and if it is difficult at Inhulets it should be tricky there.
\nWe know that units have been moved from the Southern front over to Kherson, and presumably managed to get some across the Dnieper, but we also know that the 3rd Army Corps partly exists at the Southern front and that mobilization has taken place down in Crimea. We also know that trains keep coming in with a mixed assortment, T62 up to T90.<\/p>\n

Looking at Tokmak \u2013 Melitopol, I think it looks extremely dangerous. The Russians have prepared deep defenses, and at Vasylivka there is naturally easily defensible terrain, and likewise eastwards, so it becomes channeled down towards Tokmak with vulnerable flanks. Melitopol is not a small city and is probably well-defended, as is Tokmak. There is potential for things to go really badly there.
\nPhase 2 aims to cut the west-east road, and this is best done where the Russians are weakest, and Ukraine probably knows that best. Somewhere between Melitopol \u2013 Novoazovsk (my money is on somewhere like Boikivske).<\/p>\n

There have been quite a few troop movements, partly up to the east of Oskil but also towards Luhansk and not least Kherson, so the southern front is currently as weakened as it probably can be. If they abandon the area north of Luhansk, or Kherson, it can only become stronger.
\nBetween Blahodatne on the Donetsk Oblast border and the city of Donetsk, brigades are positioned for offensive operations. Why they haven\u2019t started yet, I have no good answer for except one I don\u2019t like \u2013 that Ukraine does not yet have the strength there.<\/p>\n

A quick revolving door down to a poorly defended Luhansk was made impossible by the Russians pushing in 20 BTGs in defense east of the Oskil river. We discussed earlier that the Russians would neither have the time nor the units to prepare a defensive line without it becoming isolated islands of defense. That seems to be happening now at Lyman. Since the unit maps are a bit outdated and there are plenty of SOF in the forests, the question is \u2013 can\/have the Russians retreated or will this be the last battle for the Kuban and Cossack regiments?<\/p>\n

It also seems that the Russians have finally decided to try to strike at the bridgeheads over the Oskil river where they can. Twitter sources have reported reinforcements coming from the north towards Luhansk, and there have been pure human wave attacks for a couple of days now \u2013 does anyone have an idea which units these are?
\nIt will be interesting to see what they do with Svatove; if Ukraine manages to encircle that city with its logistics and presumably large defense, it will be a jackpot.
\nAre they weakening even more up near Belgorod, taking the last from the bases, or are these newly formed units or volunteer battalions that have now been sent down to Ukraine?<\/p>\n

I also want to point out that the thread is well on its way to doing a German here \u2013 we sit and rejoice over the lottery numbers, over captured materiel in Izyum, and over bombed-out river crossings while we know that top-shelf materiel has been saved for the 3rd Army Corps and trains with T90s (mixed assortment) are arriving and near-general mobilization has been carried out.<\/p>\n

Right now, the risk is probably at its highest, IF Ukraine does not manage to get a win during autumn, and in spring the chance for Putin to succeed in freezing the conflict increases, and if he succeeds in freezing the conflict, the risk of a global conflict rises from a currently relatively low level as China watches in surprise how the Russian army drinks cheap vodka and desecrates Ukraine like a horde of vagrants rather than the Red Army that Putin promised.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, I cannot let go of the fact that the West has acted sluggishly with top-shelf materiel. Yes, infantry has been trained \u2013 we see videos all the time of soldiers with SA80s, and air defense and artillery are hard to complain about. But they have not delivered MBTs and IFVs from the top shelf, and if they had done so in large numbers, Ukraine could have taken advantage now when the Russians are weakest to clear the country of Russian presence.<\/p>\n

They have performed miracles with what they have, but 1500 MBTs and 3000 IFVs from the top shelf would have completely overrun the red team and just left footprints on their backs when they lay there sour and pressed into the ground. That it is still being discussed that we\/EU must have our own defense, that maintenance is difficult, and that we have already sent so much that they should be satisfied is very sad.<\/p>\n

If they had pooled Leclerc, Leo2, Abrams, and Challenger, they would probably have reached 1500 quite quickly and kept to one model per brigade.
\nBradley, Warrior, CV90, and a couple more models would have filled the IFV quota but a lot of Bradley \ud83d\ude0a
\nA country like the Netherlands has 450 Leo2s; does anyone think they need these for defending the country? How would they be invaded?<\/p>\n

The revolving door down to Luhansk is\/was supposed to happen over time and is very encouraging, but it is a long way to go before the last Russian has left Ukraine, assuming none of the bubbles explode. The country of Ukraine has delivered far above expectations, so why the West cannot deliver materiel is sad but in line with what they have always done: WWII, Yugoslavia, and all ethnic cleansings in various countries where they argue about wording and how the condemning letter should be written for a couple of years while the minority group is wiped out on prime time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:11<\/h3>\n

The first post got stuck in the filter and the second went through.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:12<\/h2>\n

Have been sitting on the sidelines skimming the thread \/ Erik14 early birds. The bubbles of revolution and collapse at the fronts go up and then down, and you get just as damn disappointed every time. They are like a scratch lottery ticket, suddenly it happens. Right now, you don\u2019t even have the energy to reuse the old favorite \u2013 \u201cwithout moving pictures and today\u2019s newspaper he doesn\u2019t exist\u201d \u2013 because immediately there\u2019s a link to a news segment where the bunker dwarf stands looking so typically Russian satisfied.<\/p>\n

Checked yesterday that the plan is now faltering worryingly on the verge of panic; once upon a time, the idea was probably that China would back up the territorial integrity of the DPR and LPR so there would be a freeze, but that no longer applies, because nobody likes a loser. Putin\u2019s meeting with Xi should reasonably have been about what is now unfolding, and not a word from China about LPR or DPR.<\/p>\n

Something like this \u2013 if China weighed in, the West would force Ukraine to give up these areas, with Germany, France, Italy at the forefront. The risk would increase so much that it would be decided that some areas would be worth peace in our time (and then round three from Russia, etc., so no real peace in the long run and explosive escalation\u2026). Consider here that Putin thought he would have conquered at least Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in about a month or so; there was plan A to roll straight into Kiev and a couple of contingencies where the lowest outcome was taking the terrain east of the Dnipro.<\/p>\n

Now it has become unsynchronized and the pieces fell completely randomly so it crashed. The world is doubled over laughing at the ape-straight future soldiers stumbling around and sleeping on the floor with rust on their weapons, the referendums were not taken seriously even by the media that likes to scare, and things are starting to move in minority areas that are clinically clean of Rosgvardia and Omon.
\nThe question is how much those who started to suggest that Ukraine should give up land in the spring knew about the plans; nothing is easiest to say, but then you almost have to answer the question \u2013 why were they insisting that Ukraine should give up territory when the country succeeded very well with its defense and the Russians got stuck? There is a small logical knot there that the usual explanatory models do not address.<\/p>\n

All this fun unfortunately does not mean there will be a quick win unless one of the bubbles suddenly happens, and that is what you hope for every day when doing the news round. No matter how lousy the mobilization looks, a strong reinforcement is now being carried out, and if you can build a lot of “the city of Kherson” over time, it will become just as difficult in the darkest Donbass. I was looking at the weather and thought it looked dry until a bit into October, and then the damn rains start…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:14<\/h2>\n

When the third round of the Kherson offensive started, Ukraine swept away the front line in the area east of Inhulets, both up by D Brid and towards Krivoj Rog, especially Krivoj Rog where three battalions went to zero almost immediately. The Russians brought up more units to plug the holes, and the assessment (mine) was that fewer than 10 battalions remained in that area and that Ukraine would be able to overrun them relatively quickly now that they had gained momentum. Kozaske would be the VDV’s last battle in that area, and that bridgehead was to be held as long as practically possible until they slipped on the rubber ducks over their combat gear, jumped into the water in the deep end, and then sank immediately because they hadn’t taken off their combat gear.<\/p>\n

Now, when you take a look at the unit maps, there are 26 BTG just in the area east of Inhulets. Some of them are not combat capable, we know that, but it is still well above what was there before; they have pressed in almost 10 more battalions. I never have the patience to sit with the exact calculation of who has disappeared and who has arrived, but simplified, it’s probably a couple more brigades in defense.
\nSo the Russians are getting reinforcements and presumably some maintenance as well; it has been quite a while since the bridges started getting HIMARSed.<\/p>\n

Kherson was a trampoline for further attacks towards Krivoj Rog and Odessa, so presumably they have similar depots as at Izyum, where material for two brigades was taken according to Ukrainian official sources. We are a bit fooled by the videos of mushroom clouds and the word “ammunition depot” and then the number 12 or so; sometimes it is front-line stores, and when there are big mushroom clouds, we see it. Izyum was a little eye-opener for me regarding how much material they have.<\/p>\n

The city of Kherson is a veritable fortress. That Ukraine has reached Kyselivka (now they never actually retook it, but the Russians retreated from the settlement) only means they have a large field down to the defense line at Chornobaivka. IF they advance towards the city of Kherson, it should presumably be from the west. The city is full of elite units who probably also have it quite comfortable in the urban environment, and they can hide maintenance where Ukraine cannot HIMARs it.<\/p>\n

The command asked the bunker dwarf to carry out an orderly retreat \u2013 that means both that they consider the area lost over time but also that they still have control.<\/p>\n

Phase 1 is actually achieved, the Russians’ best units, over 30 BTG, stand west of the Dnipro River and are denied retreat. The day they try to cross the river, Ukraine will go all in with everything they have. The most suitable here would be to maintain pressure but not actively attack the fortifications and take losses, then indirect fire and air attacks that harass the defense. The failed Ukrainian attack the other day was very unfortunate.<\/p>\n

They will also not achieve a shock that breaks the Russian army or triggers a revolution by sweeping clean Kherson; they absorbed the loss at Izyum a bit too well unfortunately (so far, but anything can happen \ud83d\ude42). Ukraine should let time work for them in Kherson, and the day it breaks, because it will at some point, then they go all in.
\nWe have seen videos from the ferry camps and crossings, and it is pure K-H, but it really doesn’t matter as long as there is more material to replenish with, and at Izyum there was just that, so presumably it is not empty of tanks in the darkest Donbass, Kherson, or the southern front either.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:14<\/h4>\n

Today it will be thread spamming\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:02<\/h3>\n

What did I write now, I\u2019m curious?
\nHaven’t I claimed that Ukraine has been far east of the Oskil River for about a week now because I listened to Gregg?
\n(The hope Borova \u2013 Svatove is probably a bit more than just a step away?)<\/p>\n

Now I understand what I wrote, the attacks on the bridgeheads are behind us and the reinforcements have arrived, but I made it sound like it should happen soon\/now.<\/p>\n

I really need to improve on such miswriting because it becomes completely wrong.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:18<\/h2>\n

Solros2022,
\nIs this good enough?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1574621057163694081?s=46&t=F2l37PDWZcXgMWDoZH0-Ew<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:47<\/h2>\n

A nice background,
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1574093861093343236?s=46&t=F2l37PDWZcXgMWDoZH0-Ew<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:04 Have been sitting on the sidelines skimming the thread\/ Erik14 early birds. The bubbles of revolution and collapse at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-09-27 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-09-27-4\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-09-27 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"13:04 Have been sitting on the sidelines skimming the thread\/ Erik14 early birds. 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