{"id":6854,"date":"2022-10-04T10:18:12","date_gmt":"2022-10-04T08:18:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-10-04-3\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T13:13:37","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T11:13:37","slug":"2022-10-04-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-10-04-3\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-10-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:12<\/h2>\n

I understand that Ukraine is pressing a bit everywhere and seeing how it goes. Where they gain ground, they stick a foot in the gap, kick the door wide open, rush straight in with a guttural tiger roar, and slap around the Russian excuses for soldiers who rarely understand what has happened before it\u2019s all over. Then it\u2019s not always the logical sequence, but they try their way forward and keep going.<\/p>\n

What we see playing out now is very neat, but it presumably comes from the low point having arrived \u2013 the Russians have to choose where they defend, and the critical mass (for quite a while) has been in Ukraine\u2019s favor. Earlier, they built up offensive capacity, and now they are using their offensive capacity. With mobilization, the Russians hope to turn this around, and now both soldiers and materiel are coming to the rear to be sent to the fronts.
\n-It is highly telling that Russia is panicking and mobilizing while Ukraine has called off the autumn mobilization, and the only reason for that can be that they have enough units so they cannot mobilize more?<\/p>\n

We guessed that Ukraine would always exploit this low point, but when it came, the unknown variable was that they jumped on the \u201crevolving door\u201d already on March 4, but instead we got the forest where entire armies disappeared, so quite funny after all. Then it was after the April 19 offensive, and there the low point was thought to have been reached several times. Then it was supposed to coincide with Ukraine\u2019s buildup of offensive capacity.<\/p>\n

There is a reason why there is no deep defense east of the Oskil River; partly the area has not been prepared for defense, which is quite Russian, but also because Izyum was a strong western anchor that was not thought to fall.
\nAccording to the interview a few days ago, there were strong mined defensive positions, and we know it was the Russian equivalent of SWAT, better units, and the 1st Shock Army holding the positions.<\/p>\n

On the one hand, Ukraine had broken up the mines and then sneaked forward with armor, but not in eyebrow-raising large numbers.
\nApparently, according to an informed user in the thread, name forgotten, Ukraine has started to recon the fixed positions and then sends forward a group or so of armor to work against the position with direct fire at a safe distance. One can guess here that there is also indirect fire raining down death.
\nObviously, this has worked because they have broken through well-prepared defenses, and the units have not been enough for defense in depth.<\/p>\n

Then comes the next stroke of genius: instead of sending in a Russian and trying to level a settlement to the ground and then storm in with high knees and just die \u2013 Ukraine scouts islands of defense that they bypass and try to encircle with SOF and the front line. As soon as the encirclement begins to become a fact, well, then the Russians abandon the position and have to run their versions of Kuwait Highway 2.0 on a larger or smaller scale.<\/p>\n

Lyman is just one settlement among many here; they do this all the time and work their way forward with encirclements and then follow fleeing Russians and try to get into the next settlement before the defense is in place.
\nThen we can spare a thought for the Kherson Russians because if it has been difficult to bring up reserves and go into UFA, it is probably even harder with retreats under pressure. When it breaks, there is direct fire, indirect fire, air, and army aviation going all in, and there is probably a lot of Kuwait Highway in places up there in Kherson now (fun that the expression has finally become fitting).<\/p>\n

One wonders if it will soon break loose near Davyidiv Brid and southwards; it feels like a natural next step here.<\/p>\n

The only thing I don\u2019t quite find logical is why there is no movement on the southern front. It may be that Ukraine has tried under opsec but the defense has held, or that they do not have units for three offensives? However, the unit maps suggest that there is a buildup in the Vuhledar \u2013 Donetsk area, and they have built up for a reason. However, as said, Ukraine has always surprised positively a couple of times, so maybe they are still waiting for an opportune moment?
\nOn the other hand, one should not wait too long because many reserves are being brought forward right now, and if they go on defense in prepared positions, it could become Kherson-difficult down there as well.<\/p>\n

My money is on the Russians trying to hold Svatove, unless an order is given to abandon the entire area north of Luhansk, and that Ukraine will encircle the city. It will be a nice encirclement.
\nAt some point, an order will come to abandon the area north of Luhansk, but I think it cannot come until they have to prioritize another front, the southern front or an attack on Donetsk, or when Severodonetsk falls.<\/p>\n

There are really only two north-south supply lines left, one through Starobilsk and then the one outside Ukraine\u2019s national border through Millerovo, I think; I have some difficulty with the Russian on the railway maps.
\nThey should reach Starobilsk fairly quickly if Svatove is encircled, and then the one outside the national border will have to be infiltration deep inside and long-range weapons.
\nThere are huge stockpiles in the darkest Donbass and Rostov na Don, of course, but reinforcements must be brought down preferably by rail, and that can perhaps be severely disrupted.<\/p>\n

I took a moment to think about SOF; we have somewhat jokingly discussed that all Western SOF are behind Russian lines and that it\u2019s boiling behind the southern front, etc. Some videos show groups with large backpacks, and then they probably have weeks of endurance. I believe that when history is written, the role of SOF in this war will be clarified and that it has been extremely much bigger than one might have been led to believe. When the spearhead advances, they often pass by some knocked-out vehicle here and there, and it has been suspected that it is artillery-by-SOF in many cases. Under the concept are reconnaissance, special forces, infiltrating units from maneuver brigades (not reconnaissance, that is, but for example from Airmobile), partisans, and civilians who have become angry and obstructive.<\/p>\n

At the top of the risk list is that Ukraine still loses momentum, but they seem to have the capacity for two offensives right now, which signals strength.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:05<\/h2>\n

Apparently, I\u2019m skimming because yesterday it said Ukraine had reached Polohy in the blog (I just saw now).
\nVasilivka has had a natural defensive line, in between are settlements, and then another natural defensive line up at Polohy.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has tried to take Polohy for a long time because then they can go south towards Tokmak in width rather than a deadly narrow wedge.
\nIf they have reached Polohy, Tokmak is probably in a bad position going forward. The natural defense lies in the west-east direction, and the anchor was Polohy, so if they take it, they can probably roll up a stretch eastwards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:06<\/h2>\n

Now the thread has some first-hand information from a credible source \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Gammelsvenskby,<\/p>\n

“Report. Gammalsvenskby is once again without power. The concern in the village is great. Throughout the night, the Russian army has rolled in with a lot of equipment. They have settled in the school and in empty residential houses. They are now installing air defense in the village. They probably come from the northern front, which has now regrouped southwards. The Ukrainian army broke through the front north of the village again yesterday, as we previously reported, and liberated the area 25 km down to Dudchany which is located by the Dnieper, 25 km north of the village.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:20<\/h2>\n

Wonder if Hypnopaddan has approved the retreat up in northern Kherson and the retreat from Lyman?<\/p>\n

If he hasn’t done that (and of course he hasn’t) we are probably very close to a \u2013 “not one step back” here!<\/p>\n

This will have major consequences especially for the Kherson Russians but also Svatove, Lysychansk and Severodonetsk as there will be a reluctance to dare to retreat and thus the risk of a grim week instead increases.<\/p>\n

There is even a chance here that they order a last stand down in Crimea and send everything retreating from the Southern front there. That would be like winning three box openings on Bingolotto.<\/p>\n

Then the chance increases exponentially here that the military will make a broad revolt the more Hypnopaddan orders come. For them, every encirclement is like the axe-kick (you know the one the most agile guys could do in school) that hits the shoulder, you really don’t want another one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:37<\/h2>\n

If I were Lukas I would keep very quiet, he probably has pressure from Putin but in this situation he should be able to defend himself against Russian aggression and at the same time earn many survival points.<\/p>\n

Instead it becomes;
\n“Lukashenka accuses Poland and Lithuania in building up military forces near the Belarusian borders. Blames Ukraine in setting up defense infrastructure and deploying 15 thousands troops on the border.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40<\/h3>\n

I have probably thought that they post in Swedish and English and want to get spread but if it is under opsec it should of course be removed. In all their posts, they have been very critical of Russia so they are not hiding anything.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:55<\/h2>\n

By the way, we got no report from Lyman just like up at Izyum. We have rumors about both of outright slaughter, large numbers of prisoners, brigades of equipment etc. but nothing official to really go on.
\nFeels mostly like some couldn’t hold back and talked but from official Ukrainian side they don’t want to release this for some reason.<\/p>\n

I had thought it would seem demoralizing for the Russians to see prisoners or piles of dead but they don’t do that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:12<\/h2>\n

A bit of Russian mechanized combat at its best. They drive over a field with some platoon, it is neither fire nor movement but a couple of vehicles driving over a field and getting knocked out. I think it is within the blog’s rules.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1577297373616869376?s=20&t=B-v-WbYZYVCZ9R3Ns4Ew6w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:54<\/h3>\n

We fell for wrong information a few times earlier, we all probably remember the big chaos day and hope everyone else has forgotten but the thread has the memory of an elephant.<\/p>\n

We also try as best we can to post things we believe are true, sometimes we get a bit eager and something is posted incorrectly but the thread is then very quick with tar and feathers so it is a small cleansing function.<\/p>\n

The only thing worse than being second is being wrong \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:02<\/h3>\n

Yes MRF now it is a gray area where we don’t know and then there are two sides of that coin that weigh equally.
\nSure it can be so, I have tried to list the battalions after Izyum and consider that 10 are no longer on the unit maps but I have only gone by those.<\/p>\n

Now Moruroa writes what Gregg has written and he ranks high on the list of reliable sources so it can very well be true.<\/p>\n

After all, it is in the nature of the matter that one tries to slip out before the armored fist strikes in the middle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:04<\/h4>\n

Then it is about not admitting it but trying to spam your way to a thread truth by mass posting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:03<\/h2>\n

If you stop at Ukraine’s liberation this animation is not far from what one is guessing, though I think the area north of Luhansk will come earlier.
\nhttps:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/NonCredibleDefense\/comments\/xvfaen\/its_all_kherson_counteroffensive\/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:08<\/h3>\n

I never toast to successes, however my toasts always coincidentally align with Ukrainian successes. If you decide to go all in with the alcohol on a Monday evening, Ukraine goes and takes a big city the same day, every time.<\/p>\n

As a parent of small children without money it becomes some brand beer, maybe a Staropramen if you have negotiated really well in the car on the way to the liquor store and then a more expensive bag of the crunchiest chips and some exotic dip slips in when shopping for Friday cozy time which is a couple of options where Taco often is included and loose candy always is included.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:12<\/h3>\n

And the one who says that the Russians did not have an ambitious plan (it’s about three sentences, right),<\/p>\n

“At the same time we had Wagner soldiers, about 1500 of them, who had come into Kyiv and surroundings about 6 months before February 24. They gathered between Kyiv and Irpin and began advancing towards Kyiv and got all the way to Obolon. Now our veterans from 2014 had gathered and went to the garrisons in Kyiv and demanded weapons. They got them and under their leadership volunteers began building barricades and our veterans could push them back. At the same time the army had decided to distribute weapons to everyone who joined the barricades so now we had a mix of veterans, professional soldiers and untrained volunteer soldiers.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:20<\/h2>\n

I am sitting with Deepstate and pondering and the area east of Inhulets is X weeks away from falling and likewise the area north of Luhansk.<\/p>\n

An offensive southwards at the Southern front is what is missing now, then you split the remaining occupied areas in two, either at Melitopol or Mariupol or both.<\/p>\n

After that you can concentrate on one area at a time \u2013 the city of Kherson, behind the southern front, the darkest Donbass and Crimea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:42<\/h2>\n

Without being able to assess the source so not full throttle on this but it would be fun if operation badanka got started sometime.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/komadovsky\/status\/1577364977001840653?s=20&t=dRjwrCn8f4FgyVRNPx722g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:21<\/h2>\n

Dmitri as a source is reliable, though I don’t know who he is quoting. Someone in the thread suggested this yesterday as well.
\nIf Snigurivka is under Ukrainian control it is a biggie.
\nThen there is only one bridge over Dariivka to get to\/from the area east of Inhulets and Ukraine ran an old classic there, you not only know there is a bridge, you know exactly when it is full of equipment.
\nA bit like when they cut the staff locations when the generals were there at their one-hour meeting and the staff location was moved every day \u2013 the information advantage is total.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1577421332697927680?s=20&t=ignxKcP2No6sv7rF3iu9sQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:49<\/h2>\n

I know this was posted yesterday but this is exactly why you have to uproot this.
\nYou can’t help but laugh at the whole thing \u2013 Ukraine is cheating, they are also sore losers.<\/p>\n

But\u2026 what they are really saying is that this was round one and it’s going so-so right now, yep we might get beaten, but we will go into full war economy and fight Ukraine and the West and NATO. <\/p>\n

So there is no value in a compromise solution here that gives them that opportunity, the only way forward is a German one.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/JuliaDavisNews\/status\/1576796427409559558?s=20&t=xMrnxvH05W50NQWjt9jGHg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:53<\/h2>\n

It\u2019s probably going to be an exciting day today, are you doing early squats and warming up Erik14, you seem eager early today \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

The only thing that’s a bit unfortunate is that the Russians are gathering for a strike up towards Svatove but they have to do something.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:03<\/h2>\n

Alexander Sladkov, who looks more than a little worn out, stands on Russian TV and admits that the Russians have lost 17 communities in Kherson and that it will be two months before they can go on the offensive again. Now there are quite a few clips and the shift is huge, this is seen by all Russians.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/JuliaDavisNews\/status\/1577483753278083072?s=20&t=N8ikqeXI-KhxSenoadrGUQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:43<\/h2>\n

Now there is almost saturation of captured T62s among the Twitter gods and no one is in dug-in trenches\/positions, everyone is on the move or in the field.<\/p>\n

When we mocked them in the beginning the counter-comment was always \u2013 \u201cthey work perfectly fine dug in and in defense, a 125mm cannon is always a 125mm cannon, right\u201d.<\/p>\n

Clearly they have tried to use them offensively or tried to push them up to plug holes \u2013 is there hardly a better sign that there is some shortage of armor in the imperialist Russian army?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:12 I understand that Ukraine is pressing a bit everywhere and seeing how it goes. 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