{"id":6896,"date":"2022-10-17T07:35:45","date_gmt":"2022-10-17T05:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-10-17-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T13:17:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T11:17:40","slug":"2022-10-17-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-10-17-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-10-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

08:35<\/h2>\n

I would like to bring up the below that Justanothernickname posted in yesterday’s thread.
\nIt is a Russian telling a Russian that the first line is mobilized from prisons and the newly mobilized guard them from the second line, if they retreat they shall be shot. And behind the newly mobilized are contract soldiers\/veterans who in turn shall shoot the newly mobilized if they retreat.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/i\/status\/1581601563432603648<\/a><\/p>\n

Such a system only works because the next line kills their own, it works because soldiers do not hesitate for a second to kill their own countrymen because they have been ordered to, that’s what I think?<\/p>\n

You would think the first line should surrender to Ukraine instead and then the second line does the same, no one wants to be there, no food, no maintenance, dying like flies\u2026<\/p>\n

I think it would be worth a real in-depth analysis to understand that this system works because that is probably what makes repressive regimes function?
\nI understand the Kadyrov Chechens, Rosgvardia, Wagner and all of them, over time they have recruited those who want\/are good at oppressing their countrymen in these units, those who gladly torture and desecrate. That group exists in all oppressive regimes.<\/p>\n

But that they manage to get an army to fight the way it does under such conditions is somewhat incredible. They would rather die than turn their weapons against the oppressors or surrender. They are basically fighting for nothing but so far we have not heard a single call with a Russian soldier who has moral qualms about killing Ukrainians, it is everything around it that is the problem.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:44<\/h2>\n

I want to clarify the Belarusian attack southwards since it was spread over several posts yesterday which I read too late.<\/p>\n

You don’t have to drive straight at Ukraine’s defense, it works perfectly well to lie and Russian coward-shoot from fortified positions or go a few kilometers in and dig in.<\/p>\n

Opening a second front is what’s important here, either near Kharkiv \u2013 Chernihiv or from Belarus and they have moved a lot of units into Belarus now, surely 10% of the mobilized and there is a lot of equipment, it is more than enough for an offensive if they wanted.
\nIt is also the least fortified front line because there have never been battles there, if you go further west.
\nIt is a logical move, Luka can’t say much, the Belarusian army participates or they don’t but either way it ties down troops towards the Belarusian border.<\/p>\n

If you have Iranian loitering ammunition you try with those first and then drone artillery against Ukraine’s defense. There is no reason not to take a page from Ukraine’s playbook here which has worked very well.<\/p>\n

They are of course trying to combine this with offensive operations on other front sections.<\/p>\n

Now it is not as if it would change anything for Putin to attack southwards from Belarusian territory, he already wages war over half of Ukraine’s territory and from his pedestal that he stands on to look over the edge of the table it is a sharp situation in Kherson and he needs a diversion something and an attack where he thinks Ukraine is weakest is not entirely unwise.<\/p>\n

It might be that he tries to combine it with an organized retreat from Kherson?<\/p>\n

Now one should not confuse that with the Russians achieving any success because they will not, how much they lose is directly proportional to the strategy they choose.<\/p>\n

During the first offensive large Russian units departed from Belarus so escalation from before it is not if one should be picky and they have probably continued to shoot with long-range weapons from Belarusian territory throughout the war?<\/p>\n

What would overturn this plan is if the Belarusians rise up in some form, either the army or the citizens. Probably the mobilized Russians would join forces with the revolutionaries and then seek asylum in Belarus \ud83d\ude42
\nWhat in the long run could happen is that a successful uprising in Belarus spreads to Russia so I think it is very good that Hypnopaddan tries to open a new front from Belarus. There were such large demonstrations in Belarus that I felt the country was ready for liberation and freedom but that Luka just barely managed to murder and torture the uprising apart.<\/p>\n

Then I think it is time to dust off crossing the Dnieper and establishing Davyidiv Brid style BTG grills in some places, Novoznamyanka for example?
\nUkraine is beginning to reach the places by the Dnieper that allow crossing over to the left bank.
\nDavyidiv Brid was so insanely successful that it would almost be strange if they did not try to repeat it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:46<\/h3>\n

Magpies,
\nThere were no Russians in the area and Ukraine crossed with some battalion and has mainly defended the forest area west of Davyidiv Brid but held the town for a while or in turns.<\/p>\n

To try to take the crossing the Russians had to move units openly on the road and then enter a starting point for an attack and then attack and they were exposed to air, army aviation, artillery and finally Ukrainians in defense.<\/p>\n

It has been a bit the thing that Ukraine does to take something that is poorly defended and then let the Russians take huge losses trying to retake the town\/area.<\/p>\n

We had the “wagon fortress” on FIRMS a semicircle around the forest area west of Davyidiv Brid that was completely bright red.<\/p>\n

This should be repeatable at the Dnieper crossing but with light infantry instead of Mech.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:00<\/h3>\n

That is the factor it took a while to learn, Russian BTGs go towards zero but the Russians don’t care, they fill up again and different units have orders to shoot others if they don’t run high knees and die. Then it is filled up more than we think\/know, especially with equipment but recently with manpower.<\/p>\n

However, the effectiveness of Russian BTGs drops enormously here, in the end it is just a designation without real combat value except in defense which the Russians themselves have just discovered.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:50<\/h3>\n

Oh, when I was in elementary school all epithets were used in ordinary exchanges between classmates. Nothing was sacred; the group pigmented, the group same-sex marriage, the group disabled and those were the worst expressions. Not to mention what was shouted after the opposite sex.<\/p>\n

I think it is very good that speech has become a bit more polite in recent years and I have probably also realized that I haven’t quite kept up since I remember Soros as the worst of the predatory capitalists that the left hated more than themselves.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:21<\/h2>\n

And all this started because Putin over-read about Peter the Great and was going to deliver a rightful three-day punitive expedition, a couple of slaps with the ruler over the fingers so they lined up. He is in good company with many Russian leaders throughout history who imagined a small victorious campaign\u2026<\/p>\n

There is no shortage of insane Russian escapades over time, the New Year’s attack in Grozny, Tannenberg, a small naval expedition against Japan, and not least the Winter War, and every time Russia has survived and jumped a few places up the list of worst countries to live in.<\/p>\n

Putting on your historian hat, Russia will become even more repressive after this, and permanent emergency laws are very likely, I guess. No matter how little one wants it, this is probably a reality we have to relate to unless one of the bubbles bursts and the West does everything exactly right.<\/p>\n

If they now infiltrate agents in the refugee flows, they absolutely have no plans to reduce subversive activities. It is possible to cause quite a lot of damage in the soft parts of the EU, and one should probably be careful so that there aren’t a lot of technical failures at several nuclear power plants or transformer stations catching fire throughout the EU.<\/p>\n

If I were Putin, I would do two things \u2013 disrupt the power grid and create conflicts between groups.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:58<\/h2>\n

Lots of these airbursts now. Is it 155mm cluster shells or something new and cool for the HIMARS platform?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/TpyxaNews\/status\/1581891988089372677?s=20&t=j_YiIY28-wFm2nNWPYRrtQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:31<\/h2>\n

I think these are Belarusian soldiers at the border and they are taped up.
\nIt is the pro-Russian side by the way, so if you are allergic to that, do not open.
\nhttps:\/\/t.me\/intelslava\/39418?single<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:52<\/h2>\n

We already know that the Russian army is one big fail, but a bit of army fail livens things up. When we drove up on heavy transport, it was rigorous and then it was hormone-charged 19-year-olds who thought they owned the world, not once did it get chaotic like in the video
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/CTNZViaKz3A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:08<\/h2>\n

Then you have this one, the number of clips with Russians fighting bears is many but 4 minutes in there is a housewife who finishes off an invading bear quickly. There is incomprehensible chaos but she sure isn\u2019t afraid of a fight.<\/p>\n

No shortage of these kinds of videos, I was at Moscow airport in the early 2000s and two Russians come to the caf\u00e9, uncork a vodka and bring up two drinking glasses which they fill twice and down. Then it calms down but about half an hour later a liter of vodka is gone. I eat my ham and mustard sandwich and stroll off to the plane. Met a Finn who after a couple of drinks did not mince words about what he thought of the Swedish defense.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/youtu.be\/H2Mn2iAoQfk<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:10<\/h3>\n

What the heck, has Expressen been down filming themselves?<\/p>\n

A notice flew by that Sweden had called off an investigation in cooperation with Germany and another country because it was too sensitive and then Expressen posts videos\/pictures of the holes \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

“At least fifty meters of the gas pipeline seems to be missing after the explosion which measured 2.3 on the Richter scale.”<\/p>\n

\u2013 if I may guess, I don\u2019t think it was a planted explosive charge under the pipes because a smaller charge would have sufficed and it is quite difficult to get a huge charge in place with work robots and divers and the bigger it is the harder it is to protect if it has been there for a while.<\/p>\n

\u2013 it has been suggested that they drove a charge into the pipes and to be sure that the concrete-reinforced pipe would crack, since it is circular and open at both ends, they might have really gone all out so that there was a reading on the Richter scale \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

08:35 I would like to bring up the below that Justanothernickname posted in yesterday’s thread. It is a Russian telling […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-10-17 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-10-17-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-10-17 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"08:35 I would like to bring up the below that Justanothernickname posted in yesterday’s thread. 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