{"id":6914,"date":"2022-10-21T09:51:44","date_gmt":"2022-10-21T07:51:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-10-21-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T13:19:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T11:19:28","slug":"2022-10-21-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-10-21-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-10-21"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:12<\/h2>\n

Just like MP, I am a bit worried about the salmon and their spawning in the Dnieper now that 25,000 Russians will try to kick their way over to the highly relative freedom on the left bank of the Dnieper. There is probably quite a big risk of prolonged stress for the fish that affects their reproductive ability. Surely no one thinks it’s fun to get thousands of soldier boots that have trampled mud for months in the face.<\/p>\n

(I know there are fewer and that the big gnu migration can become a two-stage rocket where only DPR and LPR remain when everything lets go).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:14<\/h2>\n

For those of us hoping for a sneakily murdered toad face with squinting eyes, yesterday’s visit by the newly mobilized was, as usual, boring.<\/p>\n

Putin moved unhindered in a new environment, among armed soldiers, and looked outrageously healthy.
\nHe was up and down on the ground at a speed that would make any 70-year-old jealous, we did not see the classic arthritic limp.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:22<\/h3>\n

I’ve been thinking quite a lot about this, because not so long ago there could be wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and what else without a word about escalation. Israel also usually pulls off something fun against a factory in Iran when they have painstakingly managed to build a doomsday weapon.<\/p>\n

Now suddenly everything is very sensitive but Putin really can’t escalate more than he has done, is it China that through various channels has let it be known what is okay and not okay now?<\/p>\n

There have been “fires” in Iranian factories before and the famous Stuxnet worm that crashed the nuclear weapons program, remember.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55<\/h2>\n

This one should have been found before writing yesterday’s post about tanks and the West’s passivity.
\nIt is thus HIGH on the list for Ukraine now to get heavy offensive weapons.
\nhttps:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/09\/22\/ukraine-requests-american-tanks-counteroffensive-00058303<\/a><\/p>\n

Then the usual avoidance from the West about \u2013 fuel, repairs and difficulty learning to drive. I think everyone who reads those excuses understands that it’s bullshit and bad excuses from weak leaders.
\nBesides, it’s Ukraine we’re talking about, they build new weapon systems in garages that fire grenades at the Russians from carousel magazines and hang a bit of everything on their Migs \u2013 they are the very definition of solving the task.
\nWe can be quite sure that those tanks will be better cared for than with the current owners.<\/p>\n

One of the absolutely strongest reasons for Western top-shelf armor \u2013 you knock out the Russians’ equivalent at a distance beyond their maximum firing range, you have targeting systems that are completely superior and good protection against close-range infantry weapons \u2013 it’s almost risk-free (not that it doesn’t enhance the effect) and with the drone weapon you know exactly where everything is buried. Now inferior armor\/splinter protection has to get forward first within firing range of the Russians’ and then through close-range infantry weapons and then they take losses. If you could knock out all armor at a safe distance and then the Russians’ small New Year’s fireworks bounce off the front of Leo2 or Abrams, you cut right through and can get the infantry into the toads’ firing positions.<\/p>\n

Sure, you need your guided grenades that work down T72s into the soil as far as possible but at some point you have to move forward and take terrain and there is a muddy toad in defense with a small short anti-tank rocket launcher standing and squinting behind the ball of mud.<\/p>\n

Reading pro-Russian forums, sometimes it goes well and sometimes completely to hell, Ukraine can lose a couple of companies in a failed attack. There isn’t that much Western materiel delivered, a few hundred M113, anti-tank weapons etc., so it quickly approaches zero.
\nI also see a lot of footage of BTR60 (or later but with 7.62 mm machine guns) and BMP-1, it’s ancient.
\nThe Polish T72s were good but too few.
\nWe are not discussing Ukrainian losses but just to put it in perspective.<\/p>\n

If it had been a mechanized brigade with Leo2 or Abrams armor and the mechanized infantry had Bradley or CV90, they would be unstoppable in this environment where artillery and air dominance is now broken.
\nThe infantry can’t get any better but what they ride into battle on is crap and ancient and that matters.
\nA couple of our LV vehicles on top of that for close protection.<\/p>\n

Instead of just Izyum, we might now have had the darkest Donbass and Crimea left that would have been Russian and Ukraine could have lobbed all the fun onto Crimea and closed supply routes to the darkest Donbass with long-range reconnaissance and SOF.
\nThe chess move would already have been played and the mobilization would have been seen in the light of that.<\/p>\n

Now mobilized can reinforce Svatove, Luhansk, the darkest Donbass, the Southern front and maybe to some extent Kherson which seems to be over. There are two categories, those who have been caught who have training and are sent directly to the front and those who need their month (months but they get one month). Boots in the ditch have increased every day since mobilization was initiated.<\/p>\n

Now Ukraine won’t be upset about that but is preparing right now for a bit of everything it seems but I find it very hard to let this go. It is indisputable what is missing and Ukraine \u2013 who knows best \u2013 says it every day but anxious leaders in the West have gotten the idea that tanks and armored personnel carriers are what will escalate this into a world war.<\/p>\n

One begins to wonder if Kremlin psyops have managed to plant this thinking because the last thing the Russian command wants to see in Ukraine now is top-shelf armor, then it’s game over pretty fast for them. Right now some KGB department is probably sitting and toasting with cheap Russian champagne for a very successful psyop.
\nIs a Leo2 really worse than HIMARS?
\nIs a Leo2 really worse than the Kerch bridge?
\nIs a Leo2 really worse than 30 dead generals and a handicapped Gerasimov?
\nIs a Leo2 really worse than sanctions against Lavrov’s daughter?
\nIs a Leo2 really worse than all captured European volunteers?
\nIs a Leo2 really worse than M113, Gepard, Warrior, French Renault car, a slew of Western anti-tank weapons and 777?<\/p>\n

Then we have the argument that the West doesn’t have enough but Ukraine has done an inventory and came up with the figure 2000 (at least). Feels quite sufficient to me and then we have the USA on top of that\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:04<\/h3>\n

Yes, and letting loose all sorts of things in the Dnieper would be smart, bull sharks, anacondas, alligators and a lot of piranhas. Sturgeon probably already exist.<\/p>\n

Then on the big migration day, you run high-altitude air bursts just so you get a drizzle of small sharp shrapnel so all the swim rings get punctured.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:25<\/h3>\n

Don’t get hung up on Leo2, it will of course be a mosaic of Western tanks.<\/p>\n

Maintenance, if they can roll for three weeks without breaking down, important milestones are probably reached.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:28<\/h3>\n

If Putin decides to test the red nuclear line in Mykolaiv or something, I think he will get a harsh awakening.<\/p>\n

The USA has the same capacity with long-range weapons as Russia has (had), only they hit and hit right because the intelligence gathering works.<\/p>\n

Then all the restrictions that Ukraine has will be lifted.<\/p>\n

If you let Russia bully its way to a victory in Ukraine and do nothing, every rogue regime will crawl out of their holes and start waving nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

The West may be terrible at donating armor to Ukraine, but nuclear weapons are a threat to the entire free West and have not been used since WW2, and if that line is crossed with impunity, it is uncharted territory beyond.<\/p>\n

I find it hard to believe that the free West would give up 300-400 years of a functioning planet just because it is 2022; we have reached this point several times in history.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:35<\/h2>\n

Elon Musk does not give up but continues to come across as somewhat pro-Russian here.<\/p>\n

Of course, he is angry about how things went with Starlink and is going to sulk, but it all comes off as pro-Russian and at some point, it might even affect Tesla.<\/p>\n

There is no shortage of competitors wanting to push Tesla off the throne, and anyone can screenshot a tweet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:50<\/h2>\n

Sorry, this is completely off topic and I haven\u2019t even started sipping the fine beer yet but\u2026<\/p>\n

So\u2026 my kids can barely kick a soccer ball straight and are learning to swim at the same time as this girl, about the same age, either looks incredibly young for her age or has parents who have figured out how to really make their kids passionate about their training \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

It just popped up in my feed and I am completely speechless\u2026
\n(I have ordered a couple of sharp samurai swords in child size and am googling like crazy to find out what tournament it is because in two years it will be my kids wielding katanas and doing drop kicks)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/Irina66761600\/status\/1583143185332961281?s=20&t=wRCdX0Pk7H69mWuJ5LfU1w<\/a><\/p>\n

Whatever you do, watch the whole video because the last part after 1:30 will knock you out of your chair, if only I had been like that as a child \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:12 Just like MP, I am a bit worried about the salmon and their spawning in the Dnieper now that 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