{"id":6942,"date":"2022-10-31T08:07:55","date_gmt":"2022-10-31T07:07:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-10-31-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T13:21:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T11:21:21","slug":"2022-10-31-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-10-31-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-10-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:20<\/h2>\n

In September, we wrote that the Russians could at most take a couple, three, months of these sky-high losses that came during the first week. It was two weeks of high losses followed by two weeks of low losses.<\/p>\n

Now it has been 3.5 weeks of high losses in a row that have turned into astronomical losses.<\/p>\n

I also understand that we should not make the mistake of making a German here, material is arriving daily at the fronts and according to their own statements, they have mobilized 80,000 at units. But they have to go from individuals and individual equipment to function adequately in a unit and solve their task.<\/p>\n

Argus might be close to the truth that the Russians will abandon northern Luhansk as it becomes untenable to hold that front together with all the other fronts. That is the logical area to give up now when they have tried to build a W-E defensive line down towards Severodonetsk and Luhansk.
\nIt is just as suicidal because it gives Ukraine SOF range and HIMARS range to the N-S supply line outside Ukraine\u2019s border but they probably have other things to think about.<\/p>\n

I have hoped that they would try to hold Svatove so it becomes a nice extent and at least a beautiful street fight to relative freedom for those who survive. They are probably trying to empty Svatove of equipment but it cannot be easy in this quagmire so it could be a nice addition of equipment.<\/p>\n

I see no signs of retreat in Kherson (yet) other than that they are taking steps to be able to evacuate if needed.
\nI suspect they might be pulling back elite units and handing over to LPR\/DPR\/newly mobilized but we don\u2019t know yet. Otherwise, 40,000 on the western side of the Dnipro is a somewhat incredible scalp that would send shockwaves deep into the Kremlin \u2013 not a checkmate move perhaps but it shakes the cage seriously.<\/p>\n

As said, Opsec prevails so it\u2019s hard to get confirmation but the Russians seem to be going on the offensive along the southern front and maintaining pressure against the Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk line which one must admit became an incredible BTG grill. One could have skipped sulking over Lysychansk because now it is outright suicide going on.<\/p>\n

It may also be that the increasing losses are due to delivering more weapons systems for indirect fire + large amounts of guided and correct ammunition?
\nThey keep the pressure up against muddy Russians in a hole with increasingly slower blinking eyes behind the mud mask?<\/p>\n

It is often joked that a battery 777 can take out a Russian BTG in a morning provided they skip coffee breaks. That\u2019s not true but as the blog writes, when you have a cloud of drones dropping wing grenades on Russians in a hole, it\u2019s hard to protect oneself.
\nAll vehicles of any kind in defense are fixed targets that Ukraine has coordinates for and are waiting to be taken out.
\nWe have all seen the commercial satellite images that DefMon and NLWartracker show and the all-seeing eye of the US is even better than that, so good that they could take out command posts that move daily and exactly when staff meetings were held.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:28<\/h3>\n

One more thing that might contribute to high Russian death tolls is that Ukraine\u2019s night capability is increasing exponentially while it is approaching non-existent for the Russian national team in the circus?<\/p>\n

We thought that the two armored brigades with Polish vehicles would be a battering ram at night and we haven\u2019t seen much but now I can imagine that enough has arrived for them to be able to fight at night and then I have the feeling that Ukraine should now be able to master this black art which almost always ended in chaos or wrong routes when attempted.<\/p>\n

The units left are probably now an army that can fight during the day but sits still at night, preferably they want to sleep?
\nUkrainian SOF probably have image intensifiers for every patrol reasonably and there are IR aiming devices on many armored vehicles and all night-seeing drones. Night fighting feels like a winning concept going forward and that we are moving a bit towards Winter War 2.0 here where the Russians are completely terrified of SOF and don\u2019t light any fires but sit and blink their eyes in muddy holes instead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:24<\/h4>\n

Oh well, now I read that the blog brought up night fighting, it was the same video that sparked the thought but second on that thus, everything is as it should be \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:53<\/h2>\n

Apparently the Russians have now struck the water supply so there is some logic in the missile rain.
\nPro-Russian forums are completely ecstatic, their Monday again \u2013 you don\u2019t attack Russia with impunity.<\/p>\n

A worse slow suicide is hard to find, does Russia seriously believe the West can\u2019t if they want?
\nThe West refrains from large-scale revenge because they want to be the adult in the room.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:20<\/h2>\n

This may have been up before but in a debate program on RT they don\u2019t hold back on the dreams of what they want to do with Ukrainian children.<\/p>\n

I always think what if we start hearing such rhetoric in Agenda or Aktuellt about Norway?
\nRussia is an extremely advanced dictatorship, we can probably all agree on that, it\u2019s a bit like when you see some hidden camera from hate preachers and radicalization is a real poison.<\/p>\n

If this is what you see and hear on TV and Telegram you can almost understand the Russian army\u2019s actions?
\nIt is state-sanctioned and encouraged.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/JuliaDavisNews\/status\/1584054018145685504?s=20&t=T__bzE\u2013PCJoVG94bMA_AA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:20 In September, we wrote that the Russians could at most take a couple, three, months of these sky-high losses 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