{"id":7093,"date":"2022-11-08T09:37:43","date_gmt":"2022-11-08T08:37:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-11-08-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T08:52:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T06:52:48","slug":"2022-11-08-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-11-08-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-11-08"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:30<\/h2>\n

Reasonable demands from Ukraine, I think.
\nGive us back OUR country, pay for everything YOU have broken, prosecute all war criminals.<\/p>\n

Neutral high losses, I’ve lost count but at least 2 + 3 + 1.5 weeks of very high losses now.<\/p>\n

I read something yesterday in the thread about a full retreat from Kherson, before that a highly credible article about defense to the last soldier, Defmon is starting to lean towards retreat, etc. endlessly \u2013 pros and cons.
\nThe only thing we really know for sure is that Ukraine has probably had time to prepare a new offensive at Kherson and is starting to be ready to advance again, presumably the area east of Inhulets, and that things will move soon.
\nWe also know that the inertia is enormous, the sniper effect went so-so, and that there are two separate front sections \u2013 the area east of Inhulets and the city of Kherson.<\/p>\n

It is messy \u2013 I lean towards the idea that they are trying to preserve the VDV, preparing to give up the area east of Inhulets if necessary but trying to hold out in the city of Kherson if possible. It would not surprise me in the least if there is a large number of prisoners east of Inhulets but zero VDV.<\/p>\n

Giving up a fortified city with a river inside the city in the SW corner and defended by VDV would be strange. It is easier to shrug off all defense on the Dnipro’s eastern bank than to try to find defending Russians in a large city. The city also does not lack supplies and is under an artillery umbrella.
\nIt is not as good as Severodonetsk but it is not a bad defensive position where one can retreat to the very bottom in the SW and cross the Dnipro in several stages. There is also a small bridge over to the island in the middle of the Dnipro.<\/p>\n

It is probably also possible to fortify the communities along the Dnipro’s eastern bank but even the Russians should see the value in a well-fortified defensive position that can tie down Ukrainian units and inflict losses on them?
\nOne cannot carry out a proper storming of the city of Kherson without enormous losses, one must assume?<\/p>\n

However, it is starting to come to a resolution, at least for the area east of Inhulets and this front has been defended by Russia’s elite units, better than this they can never perform.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:32<\/h3>\n

I also think you see signs of expanded defense along the Southern front and then we have all prepared defenses along the Dnipro’s eastern bank \u2013 signaling that they intend to hold the area behind the Southern front.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:33<\/h2>\n

It just occurred to me that the above thoughts lacked a factor \u2013 that the Russians need to choose what they defend.
\nIF they abandon all of Kherson, it presumably means that they need the VDV et.al on other front sections?<\/p>\n

So far we are probably not there yet but these are Russia’s elite and it could happen that another area is about to fall which is strategically more important than the city of Kherson?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:57<\/h2>\n

Noted that almost the last maneuver brigades are now at active fronts.
\nAirmobile down towards Moldova have been moved and it seems there are only two mech left along the entire northern front up to Kharkiv.
\nThey have thus committed everything.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:08<\/h3>\n

This spring when I argued the thesis that Ukraine had the critical mass to its advantage and was building up an offensive reserve (which they did) I supported it by noting that a number of 4-8 maneuver brigades were not in active front lines.<\/p>\n

Now when I scan the brigades and their positions, which are approximate but when the owner of the unit map gets information that they are in combat he moves the unit, I actually only see two mech brigades in inactive fronts.<\/p>\n

Then you have the entire territorial forces that man the northern front, etc. but this concerns the maneuver brigades and my interpretation is that the NG brigades are now experienced enough to be included in the maneuver brigades.<\/p>\n

If (which is not happening now) Ukraine would be forced to retreat at this stage they have no reserves to throw in. They have reserves at front sections that are resting but not entire maneuver brigades that are refitting and have had longer rest, right now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:30 Reasonable demands from Ukraine, I think. 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