{"id":7133,"date":"2022-11-18T09:25:36","date_gmt":"2022-11-18T08:25:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-11-18-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T08:57:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T06:57:04","slug":"2022-11-18-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-11-18-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-11-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:54<\/h2>\n

Got a bit long\u2026<\/p>\n

Already at the start of the war, after about a week, we saw that the Russian special operation was not going as expected if one had read their Garbo (but missed LW\u2019s books), but the Russians have been struggling against headwinds and tungsten rain.<\/p>\n

A few months ago, it looked sluggish, no offensive weapons were donated, Iran interfered, and Russia mobilized and attacked everywhere at once in something that couldn\u2019t even be explained by randomness.<\/p>\n

In the attacks, we guessed this spring that Ukraine was conserving losses, someone wrote \u201ctight poker\u201d in the thread, and the Russians\u2019 BTG was heading towards zero \u2013 we were very right.
\nThe fact is that the thread has been very accurate about much of this war and that LW has been accurate earlier in his books and his predictions about Russian peace.<\/p>\n

Then it looked better and it ended with operation duckling, not a dry eye and spiderweb wine was uncorked.<\/p>\n

The positives \u2013
\n-UA\u2019s capability is increasing and RU\u2019s capability is falling.
\n-UA\u2019s advanced weapon systems are devastating for the Russians who have no defense against them.
\n-Winter weather hits the toad in the hole harder than UA.
\n-UA\u2019s losses are at a level where they can replenish the unit with maintained combat value and information transfer works (not everywhere, which comes as a negative).
\n-UA has rallied behind the war; it is an existential war.
\n-Zelensky has a strong mandate to expel the Russians and return to the borders before 2014.
\n-The Chief of Defence and the president have 100% integrity and high competence.
\n-I would go so far as to say that UA currently has among the world\u2019s best infantry.<\/p>\n

The negatives \u2013
\n-The sluggishness of the Russian system means they can put the country on a war footing and continue to push in materiel and personnel over time.
\n-Russian psyops are working at full throttle in their attempts to split the EU\/West.
\n-Russian psyops are working at full throttle in UA.
\n-Russian subversive activity in general and against our electricity supply in particular.
\n-There are hidden forces behind Zelensky biding their time and waiting for a mistake; if they are not pro-Russian, they may not be for continued war and may not like the EU?
\n-The wind changes quickly in the free West and support can disappear over a few months.
\n-There is a \u201ccoalition\u201d that is not pro-Western and is sitting on the fence watching how this goes.
\n-China.
\n-Some Ukrainian brigades have taken too high losses to maintain capability, especially around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and early in the war. There seems to be the ability to recover but if these brigades become too many, the army\u2019s capability declines.
\n-UA has received nudges from \u201cleaders in the West\u201d (i.e., not the goulash baron and bazaar sultan) to start discussing peace terms with Putin. The USA and NATO handled this very smoothly to avoid misunderstandings, but there are leaders in Europe who still think UA should cede land for peace.<\/p>\n

The positive points are all military and a result of UA and the USA delivering while RU does not. The negative points are all there because RU and others are allowed to conduct their subversive activities aimed at destabilizing the EU and UA and because UA itself cannot do anything about it and the West does not act.<\/p>\n

Since LW, and the thread, have been right many times along the way, and have all the time been told they are wrong, I think one should consider the following which has been discussed, some topics more than others \u2013 <\/p>\n

-UA still lacks top-shelf offensive weapons and we have guessed they need these to retake their territory in time.<\/p>\n

-Militarily, Russia cannot win in UA, they probably cannot freeze the conflict either \u2013 but they can prolong the war as much as possible while working overtime on all the negative points above. <\/p>\n

If Western support were to disappear completely and UA stood alone, how long would the Chief of Defence and Zelensky remain? At some point, it would be more attractive to cede territory than to have the entire energy supply knocked out in a situation where the West has ceased its support.<\/p>\n

When that happens, we rewind to the threat Russia was before UA, they would have their \u201cwin\u201d (Russian win\u2026), they have the country on a war footing, they have control over the country, they can over time create a threat against the West with the help of China and the axis of evil.
\nWhat the EU and absolutely Sweden are doing is betting that UA will manage this without wholehearted support but if they do not, then we still have all our materiel if the threat level should increase again
\n\u2013 that way of thinking is monumental in my opinion, Russia had a low point that could not be fully exploited and they have actually continued with that low point on their own for a while longer, but UA has practical limitations to fully exploit this.<\/p>\n

All maneuver brigades are at active fronts (some probably are not), noticeably fewer guided munitions in support packages and signals that US stocks are starting to run low a bit, winter and active disruption of energy supply.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think UA will ever lie down on its back but there is a plethora of possible outcomes here where Zelensky is outmaneuvered and where the army no longer cooperates as they do now. Everyone has probably done group work at school and you come together around a solution when it is attractive enough but total chaos is never far away.
\nThat the EU is prepared to take this risk is IG at all levels, the military leadership of countries should reasonably have done risk analyses that politics has been given access to?<\/p>\n

There is still a taboo around Western armor and some myth that it escalates the war if UA strikes targets in Russia, ask the residents of Belgorod if there have been explosions or not there throughout the war.<\/p>\n

Now progress is being made with the terrorist classification which is very good but countries like Hungary and Turkey are allowed to double-play completely openly, Orban has taken a place on the world stage when he was supposed to be sent to the scrap heap.
\nWorld trade, visas, invitations to political warmth and all that is not a right \u2013 it is something you earn and can lose just as quickly. The EU has therefore gone harder on the UK than on Hungary. There are very strong reasons to go harder on Hungary which is currently openly sabotaging UA.<\/p>\n

A prolonged war is in Russia\u2019s interest, we laugh heartily at how badly the Russian army is doing but Ukraine is 50% destroyed and the population displaced from their homes or murdered \u2013 they will not survive many months without Western support.<\/p>\n

Things are happening all the time and UA has built up its own reconnaissance capability which is sky-high above Russia\u2019s and has, as is known, secured a lot of dumb ammunition which they turn against their former owner but Russia has its enormous stockpiles and possibly a willingness to mobilize again. Russia \u201cdemilitarized\u201d Ukraine for many years in preparation for this war, let us remember\u2026<\/p>\n

The Russians are now preparing deep defensive positions in all occupied areas, and you don\u2019t have to be related to Patton through a temporary secretary who liked champagne a little too much to understand that they intend to hold on where they can now.<\/p>\n

Russia handles a low-intensity war perfectly well; it\u2019s the rapid maneuvers they cannot counter. The biggest risk is that UA loses momentum, and when we assessed that UA had offensive capacity this spring while many brigades were in the rear, it is the opposite now \u2013 all brigades are at active fronts, and units are being pulled from the northern front towards Belarus to be sent to the eastern front. If UA loses speed now, there is reason to worry \u2013 but we haven\u2019t seen that yet.<\/p>\n

For me, this is incredibly simple \u2013 supply Ukraine with capable offensive weapons, and Russia will be thrown out of Ukraine quite soon. The EU\u2019s other border with Russia is already reinforced, and if UA over time gets an air defense system that can shoot down everything, the missile threat is also eliminated. Ukraine is actually the guarantor of peace in our time, and the EU is currently either bungling it or at least not taking it as seriously as they should.<\/p>\n

A country like the Netherlands or Belgium can sleep peacefully even if they send every tank and armored vehicle to UA, as they are embedded behind thick layers of defense.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:59<\/h3>\n

Don\u2019t know how it looks with houses versus people in need of housing, but you can always set up huge barracks camps with power supply and heating over the winter?<\/p>\n

Then you run healthcare, school, food, and showers, etc., so some kind of standard is maintained.<\/p>\n

Maybe it\u2019s easier than trying to restore power supply in every little village and driving around aid; you centralize it in large camps that are then closed when it gets warm and citizens move home?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:27<\/h2>\n

Erik14 was of course first with this, but when Ukrinform headlines that Slovakia has contributed one (1) tracked howitzer, the argument defending the guys who steal all the dip at the party that \u201ca bunch of Archers wouldn\u2019t have made a difference anyway\u201d falls apart.
\nThey would have made the Bayraktar song, but for Archer it\u2019s probably a low probability \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:28<\/h3>\n

https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3617178-slovakia-sends-one-more-zuzana-2-howitzer-to-ukraine.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:42<\/h3>\n

Their previous wish list was \u2013 Archer, CV90, Gripen, and then they are desperate for armor.<\/p>\n

They voluntarily revised that wish list to \u2013 250 million SEK to the World Food Programme, porridge jacket, Trangia stove, and air defense?<\/p>\n

My first broken campaign promise was when I was studying at university and the Social Democrats promised to double the study grant so they got my vote. For a whole term, I sat there with my soy and rice waiting for the doubling that never came. After liters of soy, something broke, trust in politicians \u2013 I don\u2019t think that was Ukraine\u2019s wish list.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:50<\/h3>\n

The only thing missing in the analysis is the Russians\u2019 fondness for subversive activities, which they are a bit too good at, and which over time erodes both in UA and the West. On the positive side is everything you list, and on the negative side all subversive activities that are tolerated.<\/p>\n

We have not yet seen Ukraine lose momentum, and they are currently pushing up the NS defense line through Svatove, and we keep our fingers crossed that it continues, but better than keeping fingers crossed would be if they rolled around in good equipment and pushed tired Russians ahead of them toward the border.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:46<\/h3>\n

I think you raise an important point; Putin\u2019s Russia has shown time and again that they only understand the language of power.
\nRight now, Ukraine\u2019s power supply is going down, and there are subversive activities against the West\u2019s power supply.<\/p>\n

I haven\u2019t seen any response to this, actually; the aid packages are more of the same but in smaller quantities.
\nThis in no way sends Russia a signal that they have crossed any line.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is crying out for armor, aircraft, offensive weapons from the West and gets nothing but lots of Soviet armor while Russia slowly takes out the power supply and snoops dangerously close to our own power infrastructure.<\/p>\n

If you want to paint something really dark, it would be some cable cuts, transformer stations burning, and a couple of nuclear power plants forced to shut down urgently due to careless staff \u2013 welcome to 100 SEK\/kWh and a warm sleeping bag.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:50<\/h3>\n

The Ukrainian infantry will slog through the winter, but the amphibious troops will start freezing to death at -20 degrees, and if it\u2019s around zero, they run around constantly wet.<\/p>\n

There is a little wildcard that the weather will knock out Russian capability like some Armfeldt.
\nWeather is always a factor, and we have suggested Winter War 2.0 for a while now.<\/p>\n

Putin is truly the loneliest man in the world, and it would be infinitely fun if he also gets the weather against him \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:14<\/h3>\n

After some rum and a few beers, I have to say I like your comment as it is written, risking that I have lost a few layers of wisdom \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

And I especially like your last sentence, democracy is infinitely vulnerable but also the most just thing there is. The balance is difficult, but to be tolerant you must be intolerant of the intolerant.
\nIn your text, everything is hidden; if you go wrong there, you are no longer a democracy because you became a totalitarian state or you were eaten by a totalitarian state.<\/p>\n

Guess you grabbed what I wrote about Hungary; I think you can always take back everything you gave them because you want to be nice, EU membership, free trade, visas, and all that?
\nBut you can\u2019t hard-arm Hungary into changing; they can go all in with Russia if they want but not in our polar club. Something like that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:01<\/h2>\n

Wait a minute, people thought folks were sitting and drinking alone and that\u2019s why it was quiet in the thread, but there are 118 comments in the Friday night thread. The very definition of missing the party.<\/p>\n

When you were 18-20 before phones came (or my dad could afford one), you had to call and decide where to meet. I was always late, so I had to go home and hang by the phone until friends called (maybe) and told me which pub they had gone to.<\/p>\n

Feels a bit like that now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:10<\/h2>\n

Real little work ants, the Russians when the blood alcohol level is right.
\nI have to admit they have raised the trench standard quite a bit from the basic muddy hole here.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1593627735242559491?s=20&t=rbgEUX0Vc_2XtfUFpo8DIA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:11<\/h2>\n

Everything depends on how you present the news, and here I think AB has slipped a bit again.
\nhttps:\/\/www.aftonbladet.se\/nyheter\/a\/4o3KGe\/zelenskyj-avfardar-vapenvila-med-ryssland<\/a><\/p>\n

Russian psyops are probably very active now; FIFA wanting a ceasefire during the World Cup was smart. The frog needs a longer fighting pause to get organized, but Ukraine denies him that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:54 Got a bit long\u2026 Already at the start of the war, after about a week, we saw that the 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