{"id":7135,"date":"2022-11-19T09:23:32","date_gmt":"2022-11-19T08:23:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-11-19-3\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T09:03:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T07:03:06","slug":"2022-11-19-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-11-19-3\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-11-19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:49<\/h2>\n

Things are simmering in Iran which is very positive. Now the protesters have set fire to the spiritual leader’s family home, which can be considered quite a strong statement.<\/p>\n

Soon an ally less for the hypno-pad \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

And why don’t we read about this in our media?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1593686357087604737?s=46&t=mPsmb_-IpoZa_idJc2oNTQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:54<\/h2>\n

We already knew the USA is donating 1000 kamikaze drones and now the UK 750.<\/p>\n

Surely it feels like they are gearing up for a new weapon that will create chaos \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Also, a new batch of Bayraktars is on the way, about 15 or so.<\/p>\n

It could also be that they are running low on smart artillery ammunition, there were only 500 shells in the last delivery so they are topping up with kamikaze drones.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:12<\/h2>\n

Sorry OT,<\/p>\n

Now at least I am a bit worried, it\u2019s around zero degrees here and the wind turbines I can see on the horizon are spinning like on an airplane but the electricity price is +2kr\u2026<\/p>\n

I have learned that the electricity price is set per day depending on different factors like wind, water reservoirs, temperature and demand (I guess?).<\/p>\n

We know the water reservoirs are full, gas stocks are full, it\u2019s blowing fresh and it\u2019s not even below zero, how can the electricity price be 2kr?
\nIs it then demand down on the continent that drives up the price?<\/p>\n

Follow-up question \u2013 what will the electricity price be when -20 degrees settles over the country and it\u2019s windless?<\/p>\n

Moreover, Swedes have reduced their electricity consumption by much more than what would make the electricity price drop according to experts and some industry has probably started to cut back this early in the recession and soaring electricity prices?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:17<\/h3>\n

Sorry, back on the last one.
\nI scroll through all the newspapers and if the news doesn\u2019t appear in that scroll I usually live in the world that it hasn\u2019t been reported.<\/p>\n

Took a round now and it wasn\u2019t there but maybe it didn\u2019t have that much news value.<\/p>\n

However, I found this, OT again sorry, but is this really how one hopes to be portrayed and remembered;\u2019
\nhttps:\/\/www.dn.se\/kultur\/sa-levde-marcel-proust-passionerna-kvavningsanfallen-och-svarigheten-att-fa-den-stora-romanen\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:06<\/h2>\n

Putin is panicking should be the headlines \u2013 his psyops are now in full swing and at least I thought the FIFA request was pretty slick but it fell flat as expected.<\/p>\n

It is clear to me that he has reached out to other Western leaders than the Goulash Baron and the Bazaar Sultan and is putting pressure on them to put pressure on Zelensky.<\/p>\n

One must admit that Zelensky and his Chief of Defense have enormous integrity \u2013 the man who played guitar without clothes has proven to reach up to the greatest in history. NATO and the USA have on several occasions now stated clearly that the only ones negotiating peace in Ukraine are Ukraine \u2013 one must be grateful that the USA keeps its style here and does what they have always done for a long time \u2013 saved us.<\/p>\n

Russia will continue its subversive activities because they can \u2013 partly the eternal chanting about ceasefire to save the children and that Ukraine are child murderers but also the attack on our electricity supply because you don\u2019t have to work at Svenska Kraftn\u00e4t to understand that the electricity supply is the key to breaking the West between December \u2013 February.<\/p>\n

It is very clear that the Russians are on the defensive around Crimea, there are several defensive lines and some have looked WW1-like with wooden planks and reinforced walls. I also believe that a West-East defensive line towards the city of Luhansk is under construction, not the Wagner line we have seen west of Siversky Donets but on the eastern side. It seems they are manning it with some VDV.<\/p>\n

They have attacked heavily against the regular line Vuhledar \u2013 Donetsk and Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk line but losses seem to be falling so lower intensity in high knees suicides?<\/p>\n

Up in northern Luhansk there are now several reports that they have moved up VDV. That probably means there were no other units available and that they abandoned Kherson because they didn\u2019t have resources (again).<\/p>\n

There is a counterattack around Kreminna but Ukraine is also offensive.<\/p>\n

We have had videos of Ukrainian CAS at Bakhmut and also army aviation at the eastern front \u2013 signaling strength.
\nIt appears that they have increased the number of weapon systems at northern Luhansk because there is fighting against Starobilsk and other rear hubs as well as a lot of pre-fighting against Russians in trenches. It is supposed to be unpleasant for Russians in trenches, both cold, wet and deadly.<\/p>\n

There are also a large number of maneuver brigades against northern Luhansk, then the brigades from Kherson are a bit unknown to me but they should have started moving over Zaporozhye and down towards the southern front?
\nOver the Dnipro there are probably continued SOF operations as expected.<\/p>\n

What I have poor knowledge of right now is the Russian team and how they rotate their units and FIRMS have completely lost their relevance. We do not know for example the result from Kherson and all the HIMARS strikes against ferry camps and bridgeheads. However, we have seen countless videos of abandoned heavy equipment west of the Dnipro River.<\/p>\n

Northern Luhansk and the revolving door is in the making and can only lead to a cleared northern Luhansk over time.
\nWhat did not happen was the advance towards Lysychansk and then Severodonetsk, according to pro-Russian sites Ukraine had prepared a couple of battalions (2500 men strong) which they discovered and reduced with indirect fire and then apparently the defense of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk has been organized so it was not just possible to slip in.<\/p>\n

Now the Russians are attacking towards Vuhledar but the chess move is absolutely logical and is also something the Russians expect.
\nOne wonders though if there is any weak point between Bakhmut \u2013 Donetsk that Ukraine can exploit when they have freed brigades from Kherson?<\/p>\n

It would be very Ukrainian to attack between Bakhmut \u2013 Donetsk but then I wonder if Ukraine can go towards Azov with sheer force?<\/p>\n

The western part of the southern front with Tokmak and Melitopol looks impossible but towards Vuhledar and if you go east of Vuhledar the weak point in the southern front should be there.
\nThe last railway runs a bit north of Azov and the last road out along the coast \u2013 it is enough to have it under indirect fire.<\/p>\n

Sheer force includes effective pre-fighting so everything except near-PV is gone and then you lob in direct fire with tanks before storming an isolated fortification system.
\nReducing the amount of guided ammunition to artillery we now have close to 2000 kamikaze drones delivered, drones with wing grenades are probably coming down to platoon level and there will be more Bayraktars.<\/p>\n

UA should thus maintain the ability to effectively fight Russians in trenches even if volumes of smart ammunition decrease.<\/p>\n

We have also seen them direct dumb indirect fire very effectively and even lob in BMP-1 and tank shells indirectly so there are a couple of layers of delivering death to Russians in trenches when something runs out.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think the Russian team will find it easy to bring forward supplies and reinforcements now \u2013 partly mud but UA seems to hit more and more at the rear and you can move SOF east after Izyum and Kherson. There was an explosion the other day in Belgorod and the NS supply line outside Ukraine\u2019s land border must be a priority for Ukraine as soon as they can.
\nThe ammunition is probably stored in the darkest Donbass and Rostov na Don but equipment and personnel need to be driven down.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:29<\/h2>\n

Has the airborne unit been deployed in offensive operations?
\nGregg does not suggest that, but he suggests that units from Kherson have been redeployed and used in offensive operations.<\/p>\n

One might think they should conserve the airborne forces going forward, but if they don’t, it would be a godsend.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:22<\/h2>\n

You remember the discussion about the airborne unit gathering around heat sources and that nothing screams target like a smoke plume.<\/p>\n

We give you;
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NLwartracker\/status\/1594020514472787968?s=20&t=8xXjKnelU1GFr8mj4jfUMQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:27<\/h3>\n

Exactly the last regiment that arrived a while ago, perfect, then they will also be grilled frogs in about a month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:52<\/h2>\n

Ukraine is truly the light in the darkness, and it is really dark here when my wife has run around turning off all the lights and starts asking how much electricity the TV and computer actually use \u2013 a lot, very little was the answer from the engineer\u2026<\/p>\n

In great historical events, a country and a people sometimes find themselves in a situation where they can bend their backs and let the bully have his day, or they stand up as one and face what comes over the defense like a true Hen.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has had everything against it and not many believed they could withstand the Russian empire’s imperialistic shining army’s three-day operation. They did, and they don\u2019t just do that, they have learned lightning fast and are in my eyes a powerhouse in most areas.<\/p>\n

You can guess how incredibly wealthy this country will become when they get to start selling their products on the EU internal market in a few years, they really have the future ahead of them.<\/p>\n

First, they just have to push down a few hundred thousand frogs into their muddy holes until they lose heart and slowly hop away towards the border with squinting eyes to their village with a dirt road, a working toilet, and a Ukrainian washing machine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:53<\/h3>\n

Damn, I wrote man before Hen\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:24<\/h2>\n

Today it was snowy enough that I started spontaneously checking Christmas presents in the morning, felt wintry and Christmassy in some way.
\nI guess down here it\u2019s mostly \u201cSk\u00e5ne winter\u201d \u2013 wet, cloudy, and rainy, so you have to be happy for a little white.<\/p>\n

It can\u2019t be fun now for the Ukrainian civilians in Russian-occupied areas and there are still quite a few, we know from before that in Mariupol they have no water, heat, or food \u2013 how will the 100,000 remaining even survive the winter?<\/p>\n

The darkest Donbass is probably a bit better managed but behind the southern front and in northern Luhansk it\u2019s probably not fun right now.<\/p>\n

Add to that that the Russians will plunder everything to survive themselves going forward so the little they have will be taken from them.<\/p>\n

Time to speed up the classification as a terrorist state and start issuing Interpol notices for the entire leadership for murder.
\nThat there are at least 10 torture centers in every small community with more than 3,000 inhabitants, isn\u2019t that enough?
\nThey must have had to steal torture victims from each other to keep them open.<\/p>\n

That said, things are moving in the right direction, both the UN and G20 have managed to get some text out but there is a long way from agreeing on the text to saving dying children in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:10<\/h2>\n

Ukrainian infantry is damn world-class. They keep going with what they have every day.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/tpyxanews\/status\/1594284667510792192?s=46&t=SdBnwXD3xrF8TpF0NTnY-g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:49 Things are simmering in Iran which is very positive. 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