{"id":7167,"date":"2022-11-28T08:28:33","date_gmt":"2022-11-28T07:28:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-11-28-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T09:08:27","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T07:08:27","slug":"2022-11-28-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-11-28-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-11-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:13<\/h2>\n

Want to continue pitching the sad fact that the West did not give Ukraine the opportunity to strike at the Russian low point that was now in early autumn and that the West must continue to deliver. Even considering that Ukraine would lose by keeping equipment risks becoming one of the most unnecessary self-fulfilling prophecies in world history.<\/p>\n

Two things are becoming clear, partly that the West does not have unlimited equipment, if one may guess some types of ammunition and ATGMs will become scarce first, hopefully not before the Russians run out of missiles.<\/p>\n

The second is that Russia is receiving equipment from Belarus, Iran, NK, and China, the first three probably sending back old Russian equipment and the latter assisting with their own equipment. As someone said yesterday in the thread, made in China does not need to appear in Ukraine itself, it is enough to equip Russia with it so they can send all their own to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

All four countries have had some form of war economy and probably have fairly well-stocked reserves. North Korea seems to be almost at war with themselves.<\/p>\n

We have long guessed that China had a hand in this, for example it started the day after the Olympics ended. Now we got an article that laid out the diplomacy in the shadows and that China slowed down top-tier aircraft and armor in exchange for persuading Putin not to use nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

What worries me a bit is that then the toad is completely boundless. According to the article, Chinese officers directly approached their Russian counterparts to persuade them to refuse the order if it came.<\/p>\n

Summing it all up, it is clear to me that Russia will try a fourth round in the spring when the weather allows, they probably have +100,000 mobilized left in training or so and a round of mobilization underway as well as equipment available. Now workshops\/manufacturing have had almost a year to fix deficiencies and there are still quite a few in the pool with conscript training and they can train newly mobilized over 4-5 months. According to the Russians themselves (yes unreliable) the artillery has undergone a trial by fire and is now in better shape, I guess they mean how they move, counter battery fire and such. There was a video the other day of a T80U winter camouflaged so there is definitely armor left.<\/p>\n

Pretty sure the Russian strategy is to hold terrain until spring, the attacks at Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk and down in Donetsk could be explained by it still being oblast-level fighting and then some Twitter god thought Bakhmut is legendary in Russia, the only area that produced salt for Tsarist Russia or something, such a well-known name. The only other thing I can think of is that they want the city of Bakhmut and some other communities as dominant terrain but they can only really fall back so I can’t figure out Russian logic here. Apart from this, it is defense or offensives to be able to go on defense\/not be pushed back.<\/p>\n

Ukraine should do a WWII-Russian and attack when the weather is worst because the Russian side has it harder. We are deceived a bit by all the videos because there are absolutely Russian units left that function in the field, not all are newly mobilized freezing to death in a hole.<\/p>\n

Ukraine must also fortify all its regained border with Russia because the red team still has the luxury of preparing calmly for a new offensive wherever they want.<\/p>\n

Then the next conclusion must be that if you can get Belarus to rise up fairly soon, that is a long border Ukraine no longer needs to guard and then one can reasonably hope that work is being done in the shadows on that. It is quite clear what the people want
\nOr has China banned that too?<\/p>\n

Now apparently Ukraine fires 4,000-5,000 shells per day and that is too much for the West to handle at the moment. Compare that to the Russians’ 50,000 \u2013 60,000 shells earlier. However, Ukraine hits better and Russia is far from that today.<\/p>\n

The West should probably be careful here, the winter offensive is already planned and prepared for and there is not much more to do than continue with arms deliveries and try to keep the Ukrainian population reasonably warm.
\nHow would the deal with China feel if Ukraine ultimately lost because they did not get top-tier aircraft or armor? If NATO then intervened, they would have escalated several miles beyond just sending tanks.<\/p>\n

I wonder if China regrets not having artillery on the do-not-send list and that they have a red line at a Western intervention, or they do because it is way beyond not sending top-tier aircraft and armor. Then secretly the Russians get weapons and parts for their manufacturing from them. Feels like a pretty good win for China this?<\/p>\n

I don’t think the Russians will pull a new weapon out of the hat that Ukraine is not prepared for but it will be a better organized offensive in the spring than we have seen before and if Ukraine has not already delivered the wild uppercut then everything depends on the West delivering weapons so they have something to counter with.<\/p>\n

The wildcard palace coup or popular revolution seems increasingly distant, from my spectator seat it looks like the next batch of mobilized will have it considerably better \u2013 more training, food, warmth and all that because now they are prepared. Then they come to the front with better equipment than those unlucky enough to be mobilized in the first round.<\/p>\n

Russian TV blames everything on NATO and the Nazis in Ukraine, the country seems far gone and buys into it. In hard times the trick is probably to present an external threat for the population to direct their anger at and right now it is NATO and the West. The West has de facto imposed sanctions so it is not hard to push that angle. Putin has stolen a page from Bush’s playbook.<\/p>\n

If during the winter you can force the Russians out of northern Luhansk, cut off the N-S supply route outside Ukraine’s land border and reach Azov, you have come a long way. Then the Russians have no obvious opening in the spring to try to expand and must jump onto well-prepared defense. If you could get Belarus to withdraw from the war, even better.<\/p>\n

The darkest Donbass requires a front collapse to retake, there are several larger cities that are difficult to retake by force in a short time. If you can strangle the supply and wear down the depots maybe you get there but then Western ammunition must continue to come.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:31<\/h2>\n

This deal with China will mean attacks on our electricity supply and a renewed wave of refugees out of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

I think UA can well turn off the lights in Moscow frequently with SOF.<\/p>\n

Then we had all kinds of explanatory models down to Ukraine not knowing what they needed when the truth was that they negotiated with China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:10<\/h3>\n

Many are probably thinking about that. One answer might be to die from a Ukrainian bullet or in a Kadyrov torture center, another might be that your children in Russia end up in a torture center, etc. You simply go for suicide by cop instead because it hurts the least?<\/p>\n

Look at China and Iran, it takes so little for it to start and the Soviet Union fell due to popular uprising.<\/p>\n

You have to give Putin credit for being good at being a dictator.<\/p>\n

There was some drone footage of an obvious suicide. The soldier dead and with the barrel pointed at himself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:00<\/h3>\n

Hello, yes it was a bit on the vague side.<\/p>\n

I am referring to an article from a few weeks ago that one of the sharpest posters in the thread shared.<\/p>\n

China offered to control the nuclear threat in exchange for the West not donating advanced aircraft or Western armor.
\nThey probably regret not including artillery on that list. Western intervention is probably also off the table against Chinese intervention?<\/p>\n

A Western-equipped Ukraine in September, which would have been the logical and what we hoped was happening behind the scenes, would have overrun Russian defenses at the low point. You remember they wanted 1500 MBTs for a while.<\/p>\n

Now we have heard an incredible number of explanatory models in the thread as to why we never sent CV-90, Leo2, or Archer.
\nThe best was probably that Ukraine didn\u2019t know what they wanted, second best was that Ukraine got everything on their list.<\/p>\n

Not a single one has mentioned China as the reason, which I find very interesting and amusing; there has been no shortage of imagination when it comes to explanations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:13 Want to continue pitching the sad fact that the West did not give Ukraine the opportunity to strike at 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