{"id":7277,"date":"2022-12-19T10:33:37","date_gmt":"2022-12-19T09:33:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-12-19-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T10:05:18","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T08:05:18","slug":"2022-12-19-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-12-19-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-12-19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:19<\/h2>\n

What do you think about Russia having a shortage of crew for tanks and armored vehicles? It doesn’t necessarily mean they have run out, but maybe they are holding back all armor because of that? It takes the longest time to train, shooting can theoretically be learned in a trench at the front.<\/p>\n

There are tanks, we have now almost passed the magic number of 3500 which was said to be what remained, and T80 and T90 keep arriving by train all the time. A couple of people in the thread early on suggested that the Russians start by deploying second-rate equipment and hold back their best materiel, I can’t assess that. Then there were also some early comments saying that Russia can only do one thing \u2013 increase the violence. That seems to be true.<\/p>\n

I think they got out of sync, they sacrificed good soldiers in the first months but held back materiel. Then the 3rd Corps, which became a rolling nursing home, was supposed to function as a sledgehammer with modern materiel and that also went wrong because they ran out of crutches and liniment.<\/p>\n

The rebels have of course from the start received the worst materiel, cynicism from Russia. Units staffed from the provinces have certainly also arrived with poor materiel.<\/p>\n

The autumn mobilization was done in panic to counter a surprisingly lively Ukraine for the Russians and we have laughed heartily at it as is appropriate. Last autumn was the low point, the Russians had been grinding on and hoping for an end but Ukraine came back with a bang and guided ammunition with long range made the situation critical. The Russian military bloggers were really worried for a while.<\/p>\n

Now they don’t even want to read Rybar, he actually rejoices at all the power outages and spreads conspiracy theories. It’s more fun when he runs around screaming in falsetto about the crashes.<\/p>\n

I think one should be careful about writing off the Russians here, I know at least one other country that did that and regretted it. This is what Ukraine themselves and the competent military analysts say. I try to scan both sides and form a balanced view of the situation and right now the Russian side is quite comfortable, maybe a little too comfortable as we have a Ukrainian winter offensive starting up.<\/p>\n

I thought King-Julien was preparing for a spring offensive and that Ukraine would get the winter. It looks more and more like the Russian team will carry out offensive operations this winter while preparing their best units for spring. That would be smart, sacrificing weaker units in an attempt to tire out Ukraine and then as soon as the ground supports it in spring, deploy their best units to achieve a decisive outcome.<\/p>\n

The alternative would of course be that King-Julien and his court consider frozen ground this winter also good for Russian units and try to go on full offensive with everything they have while continuing to knock out Ukraine’s power infrastructure because it is now in winter that it makes a difference. Power outages in June don’t hit very hard.<\/p>\n

I think it is still oblast warfare, they are trying to take Donetsk Oblast to have something to negotiate about.<\/p>\n

A quick look at the map leads to the assessment that they will never be able to take the terrain east of the Dnieper up to the Dnieper \u2013 that train left almost a year ago.<\/p>\n

Donetsk Oblast is also impossible and now that Ukraine has freed all brigades from Kherson they will get nowhere on the southern front.<\/p>\n

They also cannot escalate with new weapons.<\/p>\n

So what can they do?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:39<\/h2>\n

King-Julien has been seen together with Shoigu and the most embarrassing gunshot wound in the war \u2013 Gerasimov for “frontline” inspections. Rumors that they had been sidelined were obviously wrong and they are starting to “lead from the front” (that is, on film).<\/p>\n

A strange rumor came up yesterday in the thread that the FSB was the one pushing the war, someone posted. Girkin is on TV wanting to fight the leadership but is starting to look drawn. I’m starting to wonder if the opposition that has formed because the war went badly is under attack in Russia and if they are losing?<\/p>\n

Palace coup drops a few notches on the list. Putin has strengthened his grip on Russia and it has taken until now to get everyone in line.<\/p>\n

At the top of Putin’s list is \u2013 sacrifice a few tens of thousands of men to hold the terrain.
\nThen come attempts at diversion from Belarus, or rather trolling, but it ties up units.
\nI would bet five hundred that subversive activity is increasing. Our soft targets like the power grid.
\nThen their demands for cooperation\/influence on those not hostile to them also increase, the leaders who still talk on the phone with Putin.<\/p>\n

If Russia can enter spring 2023 with an offensive capability that they have trained and equipped all winter and Ukraine has not made significant territorial gains and EU support starts to falter, they probably consider they have a chance to negotiate at least a freeze of the situation then. Give up something, keep the rest, end the nightmare and the beginning of the Russian empire \u2013 towards Lisbon.<\/p>\n

There are countermeasures \u2013 Ukraine is getting more and more of its border back which they fortify as best they can. The threshold to start from inside Russia and attack a Maginot line is quite high. The longer that border becomes in N, NE and E, the harder it is to supply what remains and to start an offensive in spring.<\/p>\n

Belarus is probably weighing its options, a mistake from King-Julien or the mustache and there will be a revolution. The military knows exactly what awaits if they are sent to Russia now that the barrier battalions have been revived. Belarusians are not Muscovites and would be sacrificed first. They also know how badly it will go if they go south.<\/p>\n

What we can expect is saber-rattling from their side of the border, indirect fire, drones up to a point where the army does not revolt but with a little luck someone lights the spark.<\/p>\n

A united and solid support from the West would give Putin stomach ache immediately. Unfortunately, both Scholz and Macron have recently stated exactly the opposite and NATO and the USA are trying as best they can. The West needs to increase support, send offensive weapons and thus raise the threshold for Russia. Right now Putin feels he has a chance at negotiated peace.<\/p>\n

This is probably the Trojan horse in the war and what I have been sulking about lately. First of all, I don’t understand why they don’t help Ukraine to eliminate Russians in a pit and reclaim their country up to the national border because there is a big portion of self-preservation involved here.<\/p>\n

Then I don’t understand why anyone wants to do business with Russia at all, they have nothing to sell and oil and gas can be obtained elsewhere. Almost only Russian subversive activity and direct bribes remain unless it is ideological conviction but today’s Russia hardly fits into any ideological models anymore. Then Russia has proven to be the most unreliable buddy in world history after Lukashenko and even IKEA had to close due to corruption.<\/p>\n

I actually see Ukraine succeeding beyond expectations and achieving reasonable goals in the coming months, and maybe also Belarus shaking up. However, I am very worried that the West will start to back down in its support and that especially Macron and Scholz will push for a negotiated solution.<\/p>\n

The faster a Ukrainian victory comes, the lower the risk of the Trojan horse with Scholz and Macron, but the lack of offensive Western weapons pulls in the opposite direction. I don’t think you can avoid that, and even then I have my most optimistic glasses on.<\/p>\n

Maybe the chess move against Azov can shake things up enough, but if Putin has smoked out the resistance within the country, there is still inertia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:40<\/h3>\n

I believe, and I base this on my personal experiences from the Korean War and the Vietnam War, that we reason in terms of normal thinking Western Europeans and go quite wrong.<\/p>\n

It doesn’t bother Putin at all if a few hundred thousand Russians freeze to death this winter as long as his privileges are not threatened.
\nSame with Belarus, it’s bribes and suicide of the opposition until they accept it.
\nThey must have security services and special forces there as well?<\/p>\n

But Belarus stands right between Ukraine and Russia and can probably go either way, and if the whole army joins forces, that’s 100,000 armed Belarusians.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:04<\/h2>\n

I’m starting to get tired of Scholz and Macron here, Ukraine is really going all in every day and the country has been devastated and the population violated in the worst ways.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, these two reptiles take every opportunity to try to counter Ukraine. Scholz probably sobs himself to sleep every night over the mistake of sending Gepard to Ukraine and Macron likewise over Cesar. Both thought the weapons were obsolete and a nothingburger, but in the hands of the world’s best military they became a double-edged sword.<\/p>\n

Wait until it’s cold at home this winter and a severe recession sets in, then the chorus of praise for peace negotiations and territorial concessions will increase in strength.<\/p>\n

You begin to understand how Poland felt in 1939 when Russia and Germany divided the country between them and the West yawned and slept in.<\/p>\n

The low point is certainly past, but a solid armored fist of the latest murder machines would have made a difference this winter, you should really revive the concept of flamethrower vehicles and napalm again, but maybe it will only be a positive when napalm meets a deep-frozen paddle ball in a pit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:38<\/h3>\n

Germany has a history of managing to get it wrong, first going to war with all of Europe and losing, then blaming everything on a group that cannot defend itself and trying again, and getting beaten even more. That in 2022 they manage to get it wrong again is almost incredible. Little Estonia has more integrity. (Now I guess Van will come after me \ud83d\ude03)<\/p>\n

France has, if possible, done even worse, first Napoleon was supposed to take them to the skies but it was just misery and I don’t know the events leading to the First World War well enough except that they stuck to colorful uniforms to the great joy of German snipers, and in the next war they tried to build security but forgot one part. Who the hell leaves a ten-meter opening in the perimeter protection when everything else is triple walls and electrified barbed wire.
\nIn modern times they managed to humiliate themselves at Dien Bien Phu to such an extent that they have probably kept themselves in line out of fear that the whole legion will be wiped out if they try to play war again.<\/p>\n

France and Germany see themselves as leading countries whose voice we should listen to, but in this war they have behaved completely disgracefully. We have been too tolerant and overinterpreted their actions positively, but the truth is that they are still mediating with Putin.<\/p>\n

No one really thought Joe Biden was a straight-shooter when he had his senior moments in the middle of speeches, but there is both integrity and will in that relic. Same with Sunak, he was directly in Ukraine and shook Zelensky’s hand.
\nYou can trace this back as far as you want but the USA and UK have always rushed to the aid of the free world, Germany has often been the opponent and France has always needed help.<\/p>\n

You remember at the beginning when the Germans got really pissed off at\u2026 Zelensky for not wanting to know Scholz, they didn’t even raise an eyebrow at the war itself.<\/p>\n

And how uncomfortable Zelensky was over Macron’s big bear hug when he was visiting, a bit like when you were down in the hall with all the whale skeletons at the Natural History Museum when you were little and recoiled from the smell. Or when your parents bought the drinking chocolate up in the restaurant and you always burned your tongue on it, every time, your whole childhood.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:11<\/h2>\n

As I said, Estonia.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1604847980745465856?s=46&t=5GhB6CaVYo3z_IWaKhHoNg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:19 What do you think about Russia having a shortage of crew for tanks and armored vehicles? 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