{"id":7279,"date":"2022-12-20T05:56:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-20T04:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-12-20-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T10:06:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T08:06:28","slug":"2022-12-20-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-12-20-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-12-20"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:59<\/h3>\n

I think we are in a situation where the previous Social Democrat-led government was directly harmful to Sweden and the long-awaited change has turned into at best nothing but probably also directly harmful.<\/p>\n

One should probably quickly agree that our seven parliamentary parties should be banned from their professions and have their access cards revoked, but that is not how a country works, so one has to, with rising blood pressure, sit and watch the country get a little bit worse for another term.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:17<\/h3>\n

I am like a walking Sobril.<\/p>\n

What has happened during the autumn is that the West has not followed through with its deliveries of offensive weapons, and that is also why I have been a bit annoyed. If Ukraine had had its Western armor at the low point in early autumn, they could have achieved more.<\/p>\n

Then Europe’s powerhouses, France and Germany, have been quite ambiguous, sitting and polishing a statement, so Putin thinks he still has an out, and as long as he believes more mobilizations work, he will continue.<\/p>\n

The reasons why the West does not want to deliver and wants to be ambiguous, we of course do not have the whole truth about, but the explanatory models are creative and interesting reading.<\/p>\n

We should continue to cheer on Ukraine to the win they believe they can achieve all the way, the living Sobril is on its way back into positive territory, after all, Christmas is soon and my indoor temperature has gone up.<\/p>\n

Our leaders, the defense, or other countries are not divine and everything they undertake is right. You get very far with a normally functioning sense of justice and empathy, and if it doesn\u2019t feel right or fair, then it isn\u2019t. An out is often to refer to realpolitik or that we don\u2019t have the full picture, but if you know your WWII history, you have most of what you need about the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:02<\/h2>\n

That was quite a long passage above that I cut out, but I think that now that one has taken the trouble to do the groundwork, one might as well post what Scholz and Macron have actually said and done since the start of the war. The interesting period is naturally up to the summer when there was still some hope of a Russian victory among some.<\/p>\n

What has started to crystallize during late autumn\/winter is not that Ukraine is fighting poorly, on the contrary, but that support from the EU is slowly beginning to slow down.<\/p>\n

If we look at two previous wars, or all the way back to the Napoleonic wars, the USA and UK will guide Ukraine to a win.<\/p>\n

Chancellor Scholz \u2013
\nBefore the war, criticism hung like a fog over Germany \u2013 they had not been the least bit supportive of Ukraine. https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/02\/07\/germany-forced-to-defend-itself-over-ukraine-crisis.html<\/a><\/p>\n

-Just before the war, Scholz announced that Germany would not contribute defensive weapons.
\n-Then he considered earmarked loans to Ukraine as major support.<\/p>\n

-He was against Ukraine\u2019s EU membership all spring; the EU must first be reformed and you cannot make exceptions in the rules for any kind of fast track.<\/p>\n

-In March, Scholz was not at all keen to stop oil or gas from Russia; let it flow.<\/p>\n

-Many statements from Scholz that Ukraine must not\/join NATO, it was apparently so important that he went all out when he called Putin and promised to block it for at least 30 years.<\/p>\n

-At the same time as Russia desecrates Ukraine, Scholz gets angry in a very German way at Zelensky who does not want to know the German president, now it is April and here is the link. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/scholz-irritated-by-german-presidents-aborted-ukraine-visit-2022-04-13\/<\/a><\/p>\n

-In May, Scholz puts his foot down regarding Leo2, no tanks, and very recently he confirmed that Germany alone will not donate Western tanks. He is a very clever man because if he had said tanks without the Western prefix, then all of Eastern Europe and several countries in Africa have already donated those to Ukraine. But it is about setting sufficiently narrow limits so everything is impossible.<\/p>\n

Apparently Scholz still talks to Putin, one should perhaps not read too much into this, but if I were the free West, I would appoint a \u201cnegotiator\u201d with a direct line to Ukraine, not have Scholz and Macron try to play big leaders while Putin lays out his demands for what he wants in exchange for stopping the desecration of Ukraine, and it is not little. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/russias-putin-tells-germanys-scholz-that-western-line-ukraine-is-destructive-2022-12-02\/<\/a><\/p>\n

I thought Scholz had said that Ukraine should give up land but memory is not the best anymore, it was different during the Thirty Years\u2019 War, then everyone in the whole company had a first name.
\nAll in all, Scholz alone may well have prolonged the war because Putin believed he still had an out as late as December 2, 2022, since Scholz takes his calls and listens to the hypnopad.<\/p>\n

President Macron \u2013
\n-This one is almost a winner, Macron went out a couple of days before the war started and guaranteed that there would be no war. https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-60299790<\/a><\/p>\n

-Macron was against Ukraine\u2019s EU membership and thought it could take decades before they became members.<\/p>\n

-Now this is thirdhand but Macron tried to persuade Zelensky to give up land for peace in our time, it is easy to be generous when it is someone else who has to pay.
\nhttps:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/russia-ukraine-war\/zelenskyy-suggests-macron-asked-him-to-give-up-land-for-peace\/2587476#<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is worth a read, some analyst who predicted well in the swamp when the troika was at its worst and did not want to deliver weapons and suggested peace in exchange for land. https:\/\/www.express.co.uk\/news\/world\/1617351\/eu-news-low-level-weapons-ukraine-russia-france-germany-spt<\/a><\/p>\n

France is also very stingy with support and deliveries to Ukraine. https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-63090644<\/a><\/p>\n

In April, Macron did everything to avoid the term genocide about the war in Ukraine. That was after the genocide had become generally known as a genocide. https:\/\/www.express.co.uk\/news\/world\/1597611\/ukraine-news-volodymyr-zelensky-emmanuel-macron-genocide-france-russia-putin-war-update-vn<\/a><\/p>\n

Macron takes first prize in all categories but there was elbowing and spitting at the finish line. I find it strange that he has not been banned from speaking.<\/p>\n

These heads of state have not had Ukraine\u2019s best interests in mind and thus they have not really had the EU\u2019s best interests in mind either because what is good for Ukraine is good for the EU. Zelensky has acted completely correctly when he has polemicized with them.
\nThey have probably tried to balance internal political opinion and look for openings to profit from this mess as a country (on some level) or as individuals. Not exactly team players.<\/p>\n

The First or Second World War was not won by Germany or France, one should remember that, and the USA with the UK decided the match as usual. It is quite exciting that we are heading towards a similar third one, are they completely without historical awareness?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:06<\/h3>\n

Additional note that Zelensky has not spoken with Putin since the start of the war \u2013 that man has integrity and courage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:17<\/h2>\n

One might as well have a neutral beer and do some neutral somersaults on the driveway when the Russian circus passes 100,000 main shots in a few days.<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t hear much about the 3 army corps these days, did they run out of batteries for their walkers?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:25<\/h2>\n

Rybar so pro-Russian but time for the EU to support Moldova because they have integrity.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1604949271039848448?s=20&t=jKGTN8g907J1CGnrFt6BNw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:43<\/h2>\n

Rybar again but surely there is reason to guess that Ukraine is ready to cross the Dnieper if the opportunity arises.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1604946298096222208?s=20&t=jKGTN8g907J1CGnrFt6BNw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:57<\/h2>\n

According to the same pro-Russian swamp publication, the following are arriving \u2013
\n-8th Special Forces Regiment to Bakhmut in January.
\n-elements of 5th Special Forces Division in New York (the Ukrainian one)
\n-English-speaking forces in Soledar.<\/p>\n

They are really reinforcing the team along Bakhmut \u2013 Siversky line.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:01<\/h2>\n

Something is definitely underway on the Russian side, first the defense minister, the Chief of Staff, and the country’s president are on a tour at the front lines (Russian version) and then they go to Belarus.<\/p>\n

I don’t think we’ve seen this since sometime last autumn and then it led to Ukrainian offensives.<\/p>\n

Could it be full panic on the Russian side?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:12<\/h2>\n

The other day UA announced that they independently struck targets in Russia now \u2013 signal politics.<\/p>\n

Then there was a hit in Belgorod where they knocked out the power supply.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1605133137830236160?s=20&t=kHkhr1NGaVcdXoTsnDs59Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Do you think Ukraine may have launched a winter campaign to knock out as much of Russia’s power supply as possible?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:16<\/h3>\n

I like that but the US has gone out and tried to persuade Germany to deliver Leo2 and they have also been out in the media clarifying that it is Ukraine who is negotiating peace, no one else. NATO has conveyed the same message.
\nI think Scholz and Macron are running a bit of a solo race.<\/p>\n

However, it is very difficult to avoid the fact that the West has never delivered enough for Ukraine to win the war today. In the beginning, it was not diplomatically unlocked but today everything is unlocked and could be delivered.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:32<\/h2>\n

I’ve learned something new, there is an alliance called the Joint Expeditionary Force that meets somewhat with Ukraine’s representatives and then tailors support packages.
\nGermany, Italy, and France are not part of it.
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/UK_Joint_Expeditionary_Force<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:38<\/h3>\n

Only the US is missing there but it seems the UK is taking the lead and all participating countries are those you want around you when Russia fixes bayonets on their Mosin Nagants.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:00<\/h2>\n

If the Russians are massing along the border inside Belarus, it means those units cannot get down to the southern front within a reasonable time but they probably hope to tie up Ukrainian units there, it will just be territorial.<\/p>\n

At least Rybar is starting to get a bit worried and there is quite a lot of Twitter info that I interpret as pre-battle preparation. First the toad travels around everywhere to instill courage and then Zelensky goes to Bakhmut to instill courage.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s probably time for the Winter War within a few weeks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:20<\/h3>\n

Good question, that particular shot I think we would have sneaked forward with the grenade launcher in the bunker and then shot at a fixed tank target, which I of course missed.<\/p>\n

So it was not a shooting exercise with associated loading but more like some kind of obstacle course or something and I recall I was alone with an exercise leader on top of the bunker slightly behind.<\/p>\n

Then the steel band holding the support had come loose so the whole thing wobbled and I am still convinced that if the steel band had been properly in place it would have been a direct hit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:59 I think we are in a situation where the previous Social Democrat-led government was directly harmful to Sweden and 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