{"id":7299,"date":"2022-12-30T10:24:41","date_gmt":"2022-12-30T09:24:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-12-30-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T10:10:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T08:10:26","slug":"2022-12-30-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2022-12-30-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-12-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It occasionally comes up that Ukraine should not\/ought not to defeat Russia fundamentally because then everything would get worse. The latest discussion is that Russia is now like Germany in 1918 and that everything will get worse if they get beaten. I myself considered the stab-in-the-back legend at the beginning of the war but now it has been far surpassed; it was for a few thousand tortured, murdered, and desecrated small children afterwards.<\/p>\n

For Ukraine’s best interest, Russia must leave all Ukrainian territory, voluntarily or by force. I find it very hard to believe that once this is achieved, Ukraine will continue towards Belgorod, Rostov-on-Don, or similar. They will fortify their border as well as possible and never take that chance again.<\/p>\n

I have thought, and still think, that there should be a 30 km demilitarized zone inside Russian territory where all offensive weapons are removed. If you don’t want to do as Johan suggests and invite a guaranteed third world war, you can always place the demilitarized zone inside Ukrainian territory \u2013 Ukraine depopulates 30 km and builds its defensive line behind it in a minefield that would make Rocket Man blush.<\/p>\n

So far, there is nothing surprising about this? Denying Ukraine its land is not an option and where we are today, step 1 is that the Russians are kicked out feet first; anything else is doing Putin’s bidding.<\/p>\n

What happens next \u2013 anything can happen.<\/p>\n

Will the EU and the USA be able to handle it in the best way \u2013 no, absolutely not, even in the best of worlds.<\/p>\n

A likely outcome is probably that the border with Russia is fortified by countries that will never take chances again for 100 years and as many as possible join NATO or whatever comes after, JEF-World?<\/p>\n

Should sanctions be kept or not \u2013 unclear and whatever is done will probably have a bad outcome.<\/p>\n

Should Russia be welcomed towards the West \u2013 ideally we want a democratic Russia but is that even possible, I am doubtful and would rather see their subversive activities hindered and that they don\u2019t take chances again, Ukraine is enough for me.<\/p>\n

Many Russian citizens will get caught in the middle and the world is not fair but one probably has to do the least bad and the countries with border protection against Russia must have interpretative precedence.<\/p>\n

Step one must always be that Ukraine is allowed to liberate all its land by force if necessary, no one will benefit from the next long proxy war in Ukraine, least of all the West. We are not there yet and even when one should prepare for the next phase, the goal of liberating Ukraine must be achieved first, that a Russian soldier on Ukrainian soil is either dead, deep frozen, or has gone home across the border, before one starts to waver or change direction.<\/p>\n

There is no other feasible angle on this, eyes on the ball all the way to the goal and then one can solve the second half as best one can and we can be quite sure that it will not be particularly good no matter what we do. How do I know that \u2013 I don\u2019t know but the probability is high if you weigh in 300 years of history in the equation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:17 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

For Ukraine’s part, I would like to see them get everything they need to throw out the Russians as soon as possible to shorten the suffering. In the long term, however, a prolonged war may be an advantage.
\nThe Russian military will probably have the economy to manage during 2023 (however, weapon production may falter) but it costs the civilian society a lot with increased expenses, higher taxes, shortages of certain goods, worse public services, etc., besides all the fallen soldiers.
\nIf the war continues long enough for the population to eventually get fed up, it could possibly lead to a revolution that ends in a more democratic Russia. On the other hand, it could also lead to just another Putin taking over and in 10-20 years we are back to square one.
\nI think the Russians should be thrown out as quickly as possible regardless of what it leads to in Russia. We in the West should have learned by now that they cannot be trusted and be better prepared if history repeats itself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ukraine has probably had a convergence of different factors that have given the best possible outcome. It is hard not to remember 2014 when all the armed forces in Crimea made a protest march (unarmed) and were stopped by Spetsnaz. They stood there airing their discontent quite loudly and Spetsnaz were thinking about other things.<\/p>\n

If Putin had pressed the start button already in 2014, it would look very different today, some brigades could send a company to ATO at the beginning and when Russia occasionally sent in VDV, the Ukrainian side took a beating \u2013 they were behind in everything.<\/p>\n

They were behind because it was part of Putin’s plan to demilitarize Ukraine since the early 2000s.<\/p>\n

Only Putin knows why Putin waited 8 years, maybe they hoped for yet another pro-East president but when Zelensky won after all the bribes and election fraud, they had no choice?<\/p>\n

What cannot be denied, however, is the importance of the individual soldier’s will to fight and his ability to fight. I see that as the absolutely decisive factor in the war.<\/p>\n

The capability has the US-led coalition ensured is high and they have delivered the right weapons at the right time. That there was near-PV when the Russians rolled in was probably almost decisive in battle, I have always taken that as a truth but now apparently the battle for Kyiv was won with artillery.<\/p>\n

The morale\/fighting will could the US never create and there are plenty of examples of all kinds of constellations where a country’s army did the impossible, and vice versa \u2013 they should have won but got beaten.<\/p>\n

I am thinking Poland \u2013 Germany overran them in a few weeks in WW2 but today you get the feeling they are quite formidable.
\nIsrael must be given credit for being quite consistent, they have done the impossible in every war. Same with Finland I think, but they had their own Russian revolution which was very bloody and probably gave them an early calibration that set them right.<\/p>\n

Not quite sure where I wanted to take this text but I have long thought about what decided the outcome and I believe sky-high morale and combat value is the absolutely most important \u2013 for the Ukrainian people this is an existential war worth dying for.<\/p>\n

The Russians never really got past buried Ukrainian infantry except on the southern front where they bribed their way to a win. Whether the Russians would attack down through Belarus I don\u2019t know if it came as a surprise but if I have understood this correctly most of the mobilized army was gone to ATO?
\nI could guess that Russian psyops worked hard to convince Ukraine that Belarus would not allow its territory for the war before the war started.<\/p>\n

If Zelensky had mobilized instead of listening to slippery Macron and Scholz, it probably would have stopped even earlier. Now old veterans ran to the mobilization depots and defended Kyiv against 1500 infiltrated Spetsnaz and a night air landing right over the presidential palace.<\/p>\n

Afterwards, the platoon defended against the battalion when the Russians tried to move from Hostomel to Kiev in a couple of places in channeling terrain and delayed the attack sufficiently but with 90% losses for the platoons that were sacrificed.<\/p>\n

If the Ukrainian infantry had not had the determination they showed, the Russians would probably have broken through on other fronts as well.<\/p>\n

In the first week, I think I wrote that a Ukrainian win would be to only lose the terrain east of the Dnieper \u2013 that\u2019s how I interpreted Ukraine\u2019s chances right at the beginning before they had taken in what LW wrote earlier.<\/p>\n

There were other things too, that the Russians attacked cities instead of encircling, and that their entire army ran an Afghan campaign. And that the FSB stole most of the bribes (rumor..) and the whole tradition in the Russian army with inflexible leadership.<\/p>\n

All this aside, it is still hard to deny that the Ukrainian soldier has been the decisive factor.
\nThe Zelensky phenomenon is probably not far behind; if he had gotten on the plane out as the USA offered, it would probably have looked different as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A good sign that Ukraine intends to take the lead from the Russians and go on a broad offensive is that half of Europe is donating paving stones and pontoon bridges. Not something you need directly in defensive fighting.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1608823976767410177?s=20&t=-NSemEq69aqACh-QpZ9m4A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:03 \u2013 Johan No.1 It occasionally comes up that Ukraine should not\/ought not to defeat Russia fundamentally because then everything 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