{"id":7391,"date":"2023-01-02T08:42:12","date_gmt":"2023-01-02T07:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-02-5\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:22:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:22:28","slug":"2023-01-02-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-02-5\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-02"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A bit late, there were some capital letters and exclamation marks \ud83d\ude00
\nZelensky said something very wise in his speech \u2013 \u201cwith the start of the war, the fogs have now cleared and we know who is with us and who is against us.\u201d<\/p>\n

When the pressure during the winter offensive soon becomes too high, the last ones who have hidden in the shadows will step forward and expose themselves \u2013 we know they are some kind of pro-Russian influence when they, with tears in their eyes, want a ceasefire to save the children while Ukraine is winning.
\nMy last five hundred (this is getting expensive) is on the two clowns you-know-who standing there sobbing over their newfound sympathy for the Ukrainian children and that the terrible must come to an immediate end, as long as Ukraine immediately ceases fire, everything else will be resolved.<\/p>\n

As a Swede, I absolutely want to be on good terms with Ukraine, I also want to be pals with the USA, UK, Poland, Finland and a few more countries, Australia, Canada and New Zealand for example.
\nI absolutely do not want to be pals with Turkey, Hungary, China (meaning not ruled by China\u2026) and not Germany either. France does not make much noise in the EU but the Germans have ruled quite hard and right now they want all our electricity production because they have shut down their own (someone says export but they are constantly trying to tighten ties with China and Russia and now our electricity export price is crashing anyway, plus they are quite unreliable when it comes to which side they want to stand on in a world war).<\/p>\n

After this war, it is almost possible to divide it that way in my opinion and it will work for 50-60-100 years more, we know who was there when it really mattered and who were the pals who betrayed.<\/p>\n

The 14:33 comment yesterday that the Russians are starting to run out of artillery ammunition and rockets \u2013 one probably suspected they would try to exploit the winter and come to a conclusion \u2013 which did not happen.
\nThe eternal discussion about how much ammunition they had, it was always difficult to factor in HIMARS ammunition stockpiles but even in the speech Zelensky referred to the mushroom clouds. Some optimists believed HIMARS knocked out a lot and somersaulted on the children\u2019s trampoline and others that they had an infinite amount left. It has swung during the year but now we have black on white that it made a big difference.<\/p>\n

(why MBT is more sensitive than the Russians losing all artillery ammunition in small beautiful mushroom clouds someone still has to explain to me).<\/p>\n

Now the Russian circus has its spring offensive to look forward to and before that they will try to hold the terrain they have taken.<\/p>\n

If they fail this winter and lose too much terrain, the war could be over already in spring, otherwise their spring offensive must play out before they throw in the towel and leave Ukraine with heads hanging, dragging the pallet with the washing machine. Before the spring offensive, they should reasonably do as they have done so far and put everything on one card and when it still only ended in chaos, they will also understand that it is impossible.
\nWe will then hear again that now there must be a ceasefire to save the children but Ukraine will not care \u2013 they stand on their own feet now and are no longer dependent on what Macron or Scholz sob about.<\/p>\n

We are definitely heading for a Ukrainian win in 2023 and that Russia turns inward, probability 1 on that.<\/p>\n

Do you know what would shorten the war by half a year \u2013 that Macron and Scholz stopped talking about ceasefire and a compromise peace.<\/p>\n

Do you know what else would shorten the war by half a year \u2013 offensive weapons from the top shelf, MBT and IFV.
\nJust the signal that they are sent would make Putin double over with stomach pain and for that signal politics, a few hundred in total with a promise of two thousand more, which then do not need to be sent! Could the EU spare a few hundred in total (rhetorical question)?<\/p>\n

If you want to make a difference on the battlefield, you should probably fully equip 3-4 armored and mechanized brigades with the latest Western armor at least and there are resources for that if you pool and keep 1-2 makes per brigade.<\/p>\n

The most important thing \u2013 after Zelensky\u2019s New Year speech we no longer need to worry that Ukraine will have enough in 2023 and think it is better to give up some land than the suffering they will experience. We should be incredibly grateful for that \u2013 many have expected (hoped) for it and pushed for it.<\/p>\n

Zelensky said it himself in his speech by the way \u2013 that many tried to persuade him to give up land. Much of what became fact in Zelensky\u2019s speech.<\/p>\n

This I have seen as the biggest threat during the autumn and sulked over from time to time. Last time I got half the thread over me and sought refuge in the economic advice for a couple of days but according to many Twitter Ukrainians they cried like children to Zelensky\u2019s speech \u2013 the Ukrainian people are as united as they can be and will press on without changing course all 2023 if necessary.
\nWhen did you last cry to a speech from our politicians other than quietly into a pillow or panic tears straight out for Nuon or when nuclear power was shut down.<\/p>\n

Since the war is over this year as a quick probability analysis in week-old coffee grounds said, this risk will never have time to materialize. That was actually the only thing left high on the risk list and people have been looking for signs all autumn of something like that.<\/p>\n

Or one more thing, it would be fun if they could get them to hang Putin by the feet at a gas station just so I got one thing right in this war \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

When Russia turns inward, it\u2019s over for this time, there will be de-escalation over time (not to be confused with Russia wanting to escalate) and in our time\u2019s world war Ukraine took the whole hit but then the West must figure out how to continue handling the country Russia. Because the country Russia absolutely needs to be handled going forward.<\/p>\n

We can be completely sure that we will make mistakes no matter what we do with the country Russia.<\/p>\n

Then there is really only one thing left to do \u2013 we want peace but we prepare for war and encapsulate Russia in NATO, the last places and Ukraine joins NATO or if it becomes JEF-world or whatever the world police of the future will be. That so hated word that time and again saves the free West from extinction.<\/p>\n

Then militarily strong countries must take the lead and ensure that border protection works, that the rapid reaction force is large enough and we who enjoy the shell protection have to chip in.<\/p>\n

When Ukraine\u2019s winter offensive really gets underway, then we will know after a few weeks which way it\u2019s heading and when the war is reasonably over, I guess.<\/p>\n

When the war is over, one must also be attentive to you-know-who-two\u2019s attempts to normalize relations with Russia directly. One should probably be very careful about how to normalize trade with Russia going forward because everything will go into active war economy and attempts at round two.<\/p>\n

It is important to establish perimeter protection around Russia first before allowing them to buy washing machines for their war industry from the West; China is difficult to do anything about.
\nBy the way, you probably saw the article about semiconductors, the eternal discussion about China not helping Russia\u2026 As is well known, I believe China is much more invested than we have been led to believe.<\/p>\n

Then one should absolutely try to normalize relations with China (during 2023) \u2013 if possible.
\nIf it doesn\u2019t work, it doesn\u2019t work, but my opinion is that it\u2019s worth a try because the same situation with China will end the same way but take longer and become a bigger war that mainly affects the countries in Asia. There is probably a reason why Japan is starting to build up its defense now and South Korea is investing a lot as well?<\/p>\n

Now, after some much-needed calibration, it has finally been realized that the free West does what it has always done since the Napoleonic Wars \u2013 is slow as lemurs at the start, sleeps through the first half but comes like a tungsten rain in the second and wins the match.<\/p>\n

It will never be possible for rogue states to take over, and the free West will never fall into dictatorships even though it has not always been fun to be an active Soviet supporter in Sweden, but that was during a time when the threat was so imminent that it damaged the country.
\nWhy does the free West always win \u2013 I guess they have such large economies that they can maintain a moderately sized defense to take the first hit and then scale up. Those who go towards dictatorship and war economy without really having the capability always have an expiration date. The free West never has an expiration date, or maybe it does, but for 300 years it has worked quite well despite fairly ambitious attempts.
\nAfter WW2, the USA could have claimed to enslave the world or join forces with the Soviet Union, for example, but did not.<\/p>\n

I saw a Swede on some forum defending not only the \u201cwar\u201d but also that the country Russia was a light in the darkness compared to the decadent HBQT-affirming West. I informed him that since he had written the word war publicly, he would have gotten 10 years in prison if he lived in Russia if I had taken a screenshot and reported him, but he could write whatever he wanted because he lived in democratic Sweden. I think that really says everything about why we should support Ukraine and the free West.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:23 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It has now been up for a while how Ukraine can give exact numbers in the daily reports.
\nThey get a number from each unit that has taken a Russian soldier out and then add them up after some quality control, one would guess the filter is there.
\nThen they round to whole tens up or down?<\/p>\n

Everyone wants to report their kills upwards in the chain so one must assume they do what they should to get it included in the reporting upwards, drone footage or like that SOF group that ran forward and took some mobile pictures of no longer living Russian soldiers. Then some grumpy admin guy questions everything and you have to prove it to him once more?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I know I simplify and exaggerate about Macron and Scholz (Germany France) but they have said quite a lot they shouldn\u2019t during the past year. The point I want to make is that a united front and unreserved support shortens the war and these are two of the EU\u2019s largest economies that cannot decide. A shortened war is for the EU\u2019s best so their actions are not for my best.<\/p>\n

I think you run into Poles from time to time who are very nice people, they came to the UK, among other places, on a large scale and are now everywhere in all (service) professions and are more fun to deal with than the Brits (the Scots in my case).
\nWe were also in Poland in the early 2000s and it was a good experience, in the Czech Republic it was a police station for a made-up traffic offense and a fine that was exactly as large as my not so polished friend said we had in cash\u2026<\/p>\n

They are probably the country that has taken in the most Ukrainians and one of the countries that has given the most support per capita?
\nThey are probably also the country that has supported Ukraine the most since 2014?<\/p>\n

Poland is also going to build nuclear power so they do seem to take responsibility for their own country \u2013 electricity supply, defense and helping neighboring countries against aggressive war?<\/p>\n

Of course, there are currents in the country that one does not agree with. My sister studied medicine there for a few years and enjoyed it and my good friend is married to a Polish woman who is the very embodiment of kindness, his big problem is when he visits and has to wash down vodka in drinking glasses but he really enjoys that side of the family.<\/p>\n

And one should not forget that they have had Asian invasion, Middle East invasion, been at war half the millennium, had a great trauma that ended in 1945 and then lived under the barbarism of barbarisms \u2013 the Soviet Union until 1989.
\nI think they are doing quite well considering their chaotic history?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I have reconsidered this, I thought the cook and Kadyrov were pawns in front of the gray eminences but they are probably players of their own.<\/p>\n

However, the FSB has an army of 500,000 men or whatever it is, maybe a couple of agencies merged so they are probably at the top of the pyramid \u2013 have we seen their candidate yet?<\/p>\n

The army is in decline and maybe cannot act as a third leg this time, maybe that was the purpose of the war?
\n(I don\u2019t think so but everything is probably on the table).<\/p>\n

Yep, this year it\u2019s over and if the winter offensive goes as we hope, Pasiikivi\u2019s prognosis is not so bad, even if he has committed to a specific date \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A bit broader than usual \u2013 the EU has shot itself in the foot with the electricity crisis here and China is weighing its options.
\nAlready before the war started, Western companies were reconsidering having their production in China, covid accelerated that and now the war on top with some concern about which direction China is going?<\/p>\n

Does the USA have an electricity crisis?<\/p>\n

I have read somewhere that the USA already 5-6 years ago started looking at automation in manufacturing to be able to bring it home to the USA from Asia.<\/p>\n

Is there anyone who believes that the USA will be able both to attract manufacturing and also produce at a competitive price going forward in high technology, to snatch market shares from the EU and China?<\/p>\n

Could they be heading for their second golden age here, the American dream and the roaring fifties (or whatever it was)?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now German politicians are at it again and confirm that they do not want to send Leo2 so that NATO will not be drawn into direct war.<\/p>\n

What has so far been missing in every statement is why HIMARS, sigint, Bayraktar, training and tracked howitzers are okay but just not MBT?<\/p>\n

If everything else didn\u2019t bring NATO in, why would Leo2 specifically bring NATO into the war, what is it that we don\u2019t know?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.zdf.de\/nachrichten\/politik\/leopard-panzer-lieferung-mueller-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Reznikov is dragging the environmental movement into the war, that\u2019s smart because they have caused irreparable damage in the EU, so if you unleash them over Russia, the war will probably be over by March.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1609896794430775296?s=20&t=DJSLXob26rwi4RoWD0cC_A<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Just saw this now and excuse me if it\u2019s been posted before but it was a really big school that was leveled in the big mob massacre. Sounds plausible with those loss figures.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/FriaUkraina\/status\/1609827507745832960?s=20&t=qsV9mHdB1mk_bTGHcc5u6Q<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

500,000 sounds high, I call bullcrap on that myself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I thought it was neutral and a neutral choice of words which gave the impression that there was some kind of common platform for peace (which I don\u2019t believe exists). If Expressen had written it, it would be easy to start analyzing and reasoning about it.<\/p>\n

Then I wondered why the UN and Turkey would mediate, why not the USA and UK?<\/p>\n

Then I thought let us google and this NATO general, who is of German descent, has said both this and that.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s frustrating that Expressen falls for what I see as an obvious Russian psyops pushing the only obvious way forward for Putin, a ceasefire.<\/p>\n

Can\u2019t they google themselves?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/post\/6034<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

01:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I made a serious attempt to google, difficult.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think Poland is an ideal, let\u2019s get the right starting point. Those who resist Russia are good, those who coddle Russia are bad, but I\u2019d rather live in Sweden than in Poland.<\/p>\n

Hungary is pro-Russian in its rhetoric \u2013 bad.
\nPoland strongly against Russia, good.<\/p>\n

Now to everything else \u2013 <\/p>\n

Poland started its journey in 1989, that\u2019s a late start by any measure.<\/p>\n

Found this link and they are a democracy. Already there the difference is big between them and non-democracies.
\nhttps:\/\/freedomhouse.org\/country\/poland\/freedom-world\/2022<\/a><\/p>\n

Voter turnout was close to 70% and no election fraud as far as I could see?<\/p>\n

PiS has dominated since the fall of the wall but that\u2019s not unusual in that kind of countries, in the old colonial countries dictators stay in power precisely because they belong to the party that threw out the colonial powers. South Africa and the ANC for example.<\/p>\n

The number of Jews in Poland between 1989 (which can be considered the start?) and today is basically unchanged.<\/p>\n

This is what the above link writes, I interpret it as LGBT rights being constitutionally protected? \u2013
\n\u201cEthnic, religious, and other minority groups enjoy full political rights and electoral opportunities. However, LGBT+ people face significant challenges to entering politics and seeing their interests represented in Polish politics in practice. Homophobic rhetoric by government figures, including President Duda, is common; PiS and its media allies have frequently used homophobic rhetoric warning of the alleged dangers of LGBT+ rights. Despite such challenges, in 2020, Robert Biedro\u0144, an openly gay member of the European Parliament, was nominated as a presidential candidate by an alliance of three left-wing parties\u201d.<\/p>\n

SD is quite homophobic and anti-immigrant, is Poland worse?<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t question that groups feel vulnerable but I don\u2019t see the country as a whole tipping over when I look at the bigger markers.<\/p>\n

Ask a Roma EU migrant how he experiences Sweden in January when all the money is gone after Christmas \u2013 he goes home.<\/p>\n

Do you really have support for your description of Poland, please link to credible sources because I don\u2019t get the same picture when I google?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

01:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I made a serious attempt to google, difficult.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think Poland is an ideal, let\u2019s get the right starting point. Those who resist Russia are good, those who coddle Russia are bad, but I\u2019d rather live in Sweden than in Poland.<\/p>\n

Hungary is pro-Russian in its rhetoric \u2013 bad.
\nPoland strongly against Russia, good.<\/p>\n

Now to everything else \u2013<\/p>\n

Poland started its journey in 1989, that\u2019s a late start by any measure.<\/p>\n

Found this link and they are a democracy. Already there the difference is big between them and non-democracies.
\nhttps:\/\/freedomhouse.org\/country\/poland\/freedom-world\/2022<\/a><\/p>\n

Voter turnout was close to 70% and no election fraud as far as I could see?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

01:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

PiS has dominated since the fall of the wall but that\u2019s not unusual in that kind of countries, in the old colonial countries dictators stay in power precisely because they belong to the party that threw out the colonial powers. South Africa and the ANC for example.<\/p>\n

The number of J-ws in Poland between 1989 (which can be considered the start?) and today is basically unchanged.<\/p>\n

This is what the above link writes, I interpret it as LGBT rights being constitutionally protected? \u2013
\n\u201cEthnic, religious, and other minority groups enjoy full political rights and electoral opportunities. However, L-T+ people face significant challenges to entering politics and seeing their interests represented in Polish politics in practice. Homophobic rhetoric by government figures, including President Duda, is common; PiS and its media allies have frequently used homophobic rhetoric warning of the alleged dangers of L-T+ rights. Despite such challenges, in 2020, Robert Biedro\u0144, an openly gy member of the European Parliament, was nominated as a presidential candidate by an alliance of three left-wing parties\u201d.<\/p>\n

SD anti-immigrant, is Poland worse?<\/p>\n

(much filtering)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

01:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If we started feeling aversion to Poland or sympathy for Germany then below is a beautiful video with Wagner-like
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1610000703623151616?s=20&t=5BRNrUX4uno4g0KAZEZO8Q<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

01:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I remind you of this, life in defense is a lottery
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/IAPonomarenko\/status\/1525556432959070208?s=20&t=_tVWtyNr-aplZyw7cuORHw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:59 \u2013 Johan No.1 A bit late, there were some capital letters and exclamation marks \ud83d\ude00 Zelensky said something very 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