{"id":7401,"date":"2023-01-04T09:21:44","date_gmt":"2023-01-04T08:21:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-04-5\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:24:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:24:04","slug":"2023-01-04-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-04-5\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:15<\/h2>\n

This has come up many times, I think it started when the 777 appeared, but what do the Russians have left to oppose?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the same feeling as previous times when you go through everything and the outcome can only be one no matter how you twist and turn it. I know we have a bit of positive bias but try to include Russian channels to achieve balance, but it doesn\u2019t change anything.<\/p>\n

On New Year’s, Ukraine struck 3-4 larger gatherings of various units in different locations with devastating results.<\/p>\n

Prigozhin is starting to look for an out from Bakhmut, which has probably been his attempt to write himself into the history books?<\/p>\n

They strike staff positions, ammunition depots, and groups in the rear daily.<\/p>\n

The videos I have seen show that the Russians have adapted their tactics as far as possible, camouflage and dug in, but tracks and movements to and from reveal them and Ukraine seems to have the ammunition that takes out dug-in positions anyway. Not everything is ground or air barrage, there is ammunition for underground constructions but I don\u2019t know if Ukraine has access to those?<\/p>\n

The old joke about a 777 battery knocking out a battalion in defense in one morning if they skip coffee breaks is probably not completely off the mark if you concentrate against a defense system.<\/p>\n

What we see right now in the rear, we guessed a month ago that the Russians would gather in larger residences due to heating\/electricity this winter before everything changes and they spread out without a heat source and lose the last combat value. Maybe they run generators?<\/p>\n

We discussed heat sources \u2013 smoke but probably didn\u2019t mention mobile phones. 700 people in the same large building must cause some reduction in phone usage? Very clever of Ukraine to be able to use that for target identification. Even if it\u2019s forbidden, some will always want to call family and the Russian army probably has zero control as usual?<\/p>\n

They drop drone bombs on Russians in pits, they get guided ammunition on all dug-in armor in defense, they conduct air barrages over defense systems with devastating results, they guide \u201cdumb\u201d artillery with drones very effectively, they use aircraft and army aviation against movements and so on in addition to all the chaos HIMARS causes in the rear.<\/p>\n

As soon as a defense system has been softened up, tanks continue with direct fire and then armored infantry enters in a very strange mech fight, I haven\u2019t figured out how those spinning ATGM or combat vehicles can be more effective than driving the platoon\/company straight into enemy firing positions and unloading. Sometimes they unload the infantry a few hundred meters away and they have to run in, sometimes the vehicles spin around in circles and shoot at the defense system. You have to be completely sure it\u2019s free of enemy infantry, presumably, and move to avoid being hit by indirect fire?<\/p>\n

How can you know there isn\u2019t a tank within 3 km?
\nExcellent intelligence situation?<\/p>\n

Now we have a large defensive network of all kinds of different types of defenses on all fronts and Ukraine reasonably fights as much as they can all the time, this type of fighting until before they shall take the defense system costs nothing but ammunition.<\/p>\n

The Russian counter-move will be to push in more soldiers into the defense systems faster than Ukraine can shoot them away and thereby hold the terrain by sacrificing lives. That\u2019s why another round of mobilization is probably useful?<\/p>\n

Since Ukraine keeps the pressure up everywhere, a front section will soon break.
\nThat is actually when Ukraine is most vulnerable when they are to fully exploit a breakthrough and that is probably where the Russians should hold back better units that can do damage. Now the question is how much they have left on the front lines\u2026
\nI guess they have pulled away better units quite far except HIMARS and to get them forward they need to go up and band on the highway \u2013 air, army aviation.<\/p>\n

Ukraine will not have an acute shortage of anything and the limitation is really only the area they have to fight against with available units.<\/p>\n

The Russians, on the other hand, lack most things and something can absolutely become acute soon that will be war-deciding. They are low on armor, key personnel, possibly ammunition, the air force is endangered, trained soldiers, incompetent combat leadership, etc. It\u2019s starting to feel like Tannenberg here.<\/p>\n

This war, and all other wars, is a gigantic whack-a-mole where you try to knock out the opponent\u2019s capability in different weapon systems while building up your own and when you get the right combo you win.
\nPutin is now trying to poke his head up through the holes as fast as he can but the Ukrainian eight-armed something is too fast and the headache is acute.
\nThe Ukrainians\u2019 capabilities have made the Russians completely lose the will to try to knock them out so they increase unhindered, all bars. The last thing they tried was the power supply which did not become war-deciding.<\/p>\n

That Russia turns inward in 2023 I see as probability 1.<\/p>\n

The USA and UK will follow this to the end because they have at one stroke gotten rid of one of two threats that also engaged in the most subversive activities ever in our Western democracies without sacrificing their own citizens\u2019 lives. This should be a bit of a dream for Pentagon, many generals who bought the most expensive champagne.<\/p>\n

Since we will endure Russian psyops in the media for a while now, you probably can\u2019t say often enough that Russia turns inward this year, exactly when is hard to predict but maybe a couple of weeks into the active winter offensive?<\/p>\n

If our two Western leaders could pull themselves together and then some country decides to deliver MBTs, it could probably go really fast otherwise we will have to endure another Russian spring offensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:16<\/h2>\n

This has come up many times, I think it started when the 777 appeared, but what do the Russians have left to oppose?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the same feeling as previous times when you go through everything and the outcome can only be one no matter how you twist and turn it. I know we have a bit of positive bias but try to include Russian channels to achieve balance, but it doesn\u2019t change anything.<\/p>\n

On New Year’s, Ukraine struck 3-4 larger gatherings of various units in different locations with devastating results.<\/p>\n

Prigozhin is starting to look for an out from Bakhmut, which has probably been his attempt to write himself into the history books?<\/p>\n

They strike staff positions, ammunition depots, and groups in the rear daily.<\/p>\n

The videos I have seen show that the Russians have adapted their tactics as far as possible, camouflage and dug in, but tracks and movements to and from reveal them and Ukraine seems to have the ammunition that takes out dug-in positions anyway. Not everything is ground or air barrage, there is ammunition for underground constructions but I don\u2019t know if Ukraine has access to those?<\/p>\n

The old joke about a 777 battery knocking out a battalion in defense in one morning if they skip coffee breaks is probably not completely off the mark if you concentrate against a defense system.<\/p>\n

What we are currently seeing in the rear, we probably guessed a month ago that the Russians would gather in larger residences due to heating\/electricity this winter before everything changes and they spread out without a heat source and lose their last combat value. Maybe they are running generators?<\/p>\n

We discussed heat sources \u2013 smoke but probably didn\u2019t mention mobile phones. 700 people in the same large building must cause some reduction in phone usage? Very clever of Ukraine to be able to use that for target identification. Even though it is forbidden, some will always want to call their families and the Russian army probably has zero control as usual?<\/p>\n

They drop drone bombs on Russians in pits, they get guided ammunition on all buried armor in defense, they run air raids over fortification systems with devastating results, they guide \u201cdumb\u201d artillery with drones very effectively, they use aircraft and army aviation against movements and so on in addition to all the chaos HIMARS causes in the rear.<\/p>\n

As soon as a fortification system has been processed, tanks continue with direct fire and then the infantry moves in for a very strange mechanized battle. I haven\u2019t managed to figure out how those spinning ATGMs or armored vehicles can be more effective than driving the platoon\/company straight into enemy firing positions and unloading. Sometimes they unload the infantry a few hundred meters away and they have to run in, sometimes the vehicles spin around in circles and fire at the fortification system. You have to be completely sure it\u2019s free of enemy infantry, presumably, and you move to avoid being hit by indirect fire?<\/p>\n

How can you know there isn\u2019t a tank within 3 km?
\nExcellent intelligence situation?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:20<\/h3>\n

I\u2019m quite surprised that the Kadyrovites are going after the Wagnerites.
\nThen there is probably FSB units behind all of this ensuring that the rapes and sledgehammer murders continue as they should, otherwise it\u2019s the Kadyrovites\u2019 turn.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bit surprising there aren\u2019t more suicides but maybe it\u2019s easier to be shot by Ukraine?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to rejoice in this, those who now die probably never managed to harm a Ukrainian really but were sent straight from mobilization to some front, but at the same time you have to say that this whole system is a big positive for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:21<\/h2>\n

Now we have a large defensive network of all kinds of fortifications on all fronts and Ukraine reasonably fights as much as they can all the time. This type of fighting until before they are to take the fortification system costs nothing but ammunition.<\/p>\n

The Russian counter-move is to push in more soldiers into the fortification systems faster than Ukraine can shoot them away and thus hold the terrain by sacrificing lives. That\u2019s why another round of mobilization is probably useful?<\/p>\n

Since Ukraine keeps the pressure up everywhere, a front section will soon break.
\nThat is actually when Ukraine is most vulnerable when they are to fully exploit a breakthrough and that is probably where the Russians should hold back better units that can do damage. Now the question is how much they have left on the front lines\u2026
\nI guess they have pulled away better units quite far except HIMARS and to get them forward they need to go up and bandage on the highway \u2013 air force, army aviation.<\/p>\n

Ukraine will not have an acute shortage of anything and the limitation is really only the area they have to fight against with available units.<\/p>\n

The Russians, on the other hand, lack most things and something can absolutely become acute in the near future that will be decisive for the war. They are low on armor, key personnel, possibly ammunition, the air force is endangered, trained soldiers, incompetent combat leadership, etc. This is starting to feel like Tannenberg.<\/p>\n

This war, and all other wars, is a gigantic whack-a-mole where you try to knock out the opponent\u2019s capability in different weapon systems while building up your own, and when you get the right combo you win.
\nPutin is now trying to poke his head out through the holes as fast as he can but the Ukrainian eight-armed something is too fast and the headache is acute.
\nThe Ukrainians\u2019 capabilities have the Russians completely discouraged from trying to knock them out so they increase unhindered, all bars. The last thing they tried was the power supply which was not decisive for the war.<\/p>\n

That Russia turns inward in 2023 I see as probability 1.<\/p>\n

The US and UK will follow this to the end because they have at one stroke gotten rid of one of two threats that also engaged in the most subversive activities ever in our Western democracies without sacrificing their own citizens\u2019 lives. This should be a bit of a dream for the Pentagon, many generals who have bought the most expensive champagne.<\/p>\n

Since we will have to endure Russian psyops in the media for a while now, one probably can\u2019t say often enough that Russia turns inward this year, exactly when is hard to predict but maybe a couple of weeks into the active winter offensive?<\/p>\n

If our two Western leaders could get their act together and then some country decide on delivery of MBTs it could probably go really fast otherwise we\u2019ll have to endure another Russian spring offensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:21<\/h2>\n

This has come up many times, I think it started when 777 appeared, but what do the Russians have left to oppose?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the same feeling as previous times when you go through everything and the outcome can only be one no matter how you twist and turn it. I know we have a bit of positive bias but try to include Russian channels to achieve balance but it changes nothing.<\/p>\n

At New Year, Ukraine struck 3-4 larger gatherings of various units in different places with devastating results.<\/p>\n

Prigozhin is starting to look for an out from Bakhmut which has probably been his attempt to write himself into the history books?<\/p>\n

They strike daily at command posts, ammunition depots and groupings in the rear.<\/p>\n

The videos I have seen show the Russians have adapted tactics as far as possible, camouflage and buried, but tracks and movements to and from reveal and Ukraine seems to have ammunition that takes out buried targets anyway. Not everything is ground or air raid, there is ammunition for underground constructions but I don\u2019t know if Ukraine has access to those?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:24<\/h2>\n

The old joke about a battery knocking out a battalion in defense in one morning if they skip coffee breaks is probably not completely off the mark if you concentrate against a fortification system.<\/p>\n

What we are currently seeing in the rear, we probably guessed a month ago that the Russians would gather in larger residences due to heating electricity this winter before everything changes and they spread out without a heat source and lose their last combat value. Maybe they are running generators?<\/p>\n

We discussed heat sources and smoke but probably didn\u2019t mention mobiles. 700 people in the same large building must cause some reduction in usage? Very clever of Ukraine to be able to use that for identification. Always some who want to call their family and the Russian army probably has zero control as usual?<\/p>\n

They drop drone bombs on Russians in trenches, they get guided ammunition on all buried armor in defense, they run air strikes over fortification systems with devastating results, they direct regular artillery with drones very effectively, they use air and army aviation against movements and so on, in addition to all the chaos HIMARS causes in the rear.<\/p>\n

As soon as a fortification system is softened up, tanks continue with direct fire and then armored infantry moves in for a very peculiar mechanized battle. I haven’t figured out how those spinning anti-tank guided missile carriers or combat vehicles can be more effective than driving the platoon or company straight into enemy firing positions and unloading. Sometimes they unload the infantry a few hundred meters away and they have to run in, sometimes the vehicles spin around in circles and shoot at the fortification system. You have to be completely sure that it is reasonably free of enemy tanks and you move to avoid being hit by indirect fire?<\/p>\n

How can you know that there isn’t a tank within 3 km?
\nExcellent intelligence situation?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:31<\/h2>\n

Now that the topic is a bit about desecration today, below is something I’ve been pondering.<\/p>\n

I believe the Russians will leave Ukraine in a cloud of increasing abuses of all kinds. Soon they will go after what they control in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea oblasts. It will partly be revenge on a strategic level, they will shoot everything they have at cities and power supplies before withdrawing, but also individual soldier\/torture chambers that will go all in during the last months just because they can.<\/p>\n

It probably can’t be avoided, and if you want to try to see a light in it, it will facilitate the assimilation of Luhansk and Donetsk back into Ukraine once they have experienced Russian peace at its best.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:20<\/h2>\n

I’ve lost the video\/forgot to bookmark it but a Ukrainian soldier fires a rocket in a stairwell and his buddy films a few steps down, the video ends in a cloud and shaking camera.
\nIt probably went well and those guys learned the hard way not to fire indoors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:12<\/h2>\n

Extremely OT but I’ve gotten hooked on the Twitter account below and this one is so ridiculously funny that I’m sharing it.
\nA boyfriend who got dumped put up posters all over town saying people should call his ex-girlfriend’s number and do their best Chewbacca voice, which many did, and the angry mother of the dumped girlfriend plays some of them at the end.
\nI laughed so hard I was writhing on the floor.
\nSorry for the OT, immediate improvement promised.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/historyinmemes\/status\/1594865608662945795?s=20&t=zQduWE0VleJUJRZZuC8nEA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:16<\/h3>\n

Maybe it was the girlfriend herself, by the way.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:24<\/h2>\n

Has this been posted?
\nBudanov lays out the words about the spring offensive and that they will then reclaim their land.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1610638774530080768?s=20&t=FECoxgGUCWJM8Uca3UZYMQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine now speaks in terms of liberating their land and soon. So far, they have not exaggerated or overshot the mark, so they should be relatively sure of where this is heading?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:21<\/h2>\n

Woohoo!
\n(Bradley reconfirmed)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1610743518057594897?s=46&t=HJKDd_Qww4mcQ2vW5Q5Fzw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:22<\/h3>\n

The cork is out, if one may guess?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:15 This has come up many times, I think it started when the 777 appeared, but what do the Russians 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