{"id":7431,"date":"2023-01-12T10:24:07","date_gmt":"2023-01-12T09:24:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-12-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:29:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:29:04","slug":"2023-01-12-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-12-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:44<\/h2>\n

Now I am worn out here because I really have high hopes for Scholz but still want to ask \u2013 what can be given as a reasonable reason for demanding that the US must provide Abrams for Poland and Finland to be allowed to send Leo2 to Ukraine?<\/p>\n

There is no technical, diplomatic, or realpolitik problem since they ARE allowed to be sent, but only if the US sends Abrams.<\/p>\n

I can’t see a reasonable cause for that and the question is probably whether Poland and Finland have had enough and will send them anyway?<\/p>\n

Or maybe it’s psyops but politico\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:48<\/h2>\n

I wonder if we can get language experts in the thread to clarify the video from yesterday with the close combat where someone possibly wore the other team’s uniform.<\/p>\n

I am posting it only for that purpose WARNING PRO-RUSSIAN AND LOTS OF DEATH. LW can remove if I break the rules.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1613223550223061005?s=20&t=AZcG5i-ee7t2Tp1aDZ3H8g<\/a><\/p>\n

I think both the cameraman and the soldiers in the trench speak clearly and a lot, if we can get what they say broken down maybe it will be possible to figure out who is doing what?<\/p>\n

What we see is two soldiers in a fortification defending away from the soldier with the camera. He is coming from behind.
\nIt is quite clear that the two soldiers perceive him as their own side and want to avoid friendly fire.<\/p>\n

The soldier with the camera is also standing completely upright so they can see him well.<\/p>\n

He wants to capture them, they don’t understand, he shoots them with automatic fire which maybe doesn’t say anything about nationality?<\/p>\n

In Soledar there is a picture of a Wagner soldier in Ukrainian uniform so it is documented.<\/p>\n

Now it is a war crime to wear the enemy’s uniform and fight but that naturally has no significance here other than that one’s feeling of unfair play kicks in.<\/p>\n

One thought I’ve had is isn’t it quite un-Russian to take prisoners?<\/p>\n

But it can hardly be Russians in Ukrainian uniform in the trench and a Ukrainian in Russian uniform sneaking up from behind \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:52<\/h2>\n

Without going into Swedish offensive arms deliveries I just want to make a point that Poland’s Leo2 tank company they want to donate to Ukraine has given them enormous positive PR, and PR for the Leo2 platform. Now our living idol Scholz apparently does not want that but that is beside the point.<\/p>\n

Now that train has left and we have promised Archer but Sweden could also send down 20-25 CV90s, an enormous PR win for Sweden and for CV90 as a weapons system and in the coming recession we can make a living arming NATO with CV90, Archer and maybe Gripen?<\/p>\n

We all remember the rounds of trying to sell Gripen to South Africa, Brazil and whoever else it was that went so-so for various reasons.<\/p>\n

Poland buys Korean weapons systems, lots of places will surely be armed, Ukraine will be armed after this war, Finland will review its defense capability and surely Sweden will take greater responsibility for the Baltics (as proposed) and deepen cooperation with Finland.<\/p>\n

There are every opportunity to get our weapons systems into the NATO arsenal and if they have been bought they must be serviced and upgraded which also creates jobs and then we manufacture the next generation and almost avoid procurement for existing very satisfied owners.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:52<\/h3>\n

Bypassing LOU doesn’t really work though\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:56<\/h2>\n

The scenario before the tsunami with all anomalies was that Ukraine had prepared for a winter offensive which they themselves confirmed. The Russians would have trouble holding out in northern Luhansk and probably also Azov and either throw in the towel immediately or get the worst possible start ahead of the spring offensive, there were three options I don’t remember the last full hedge \ud83d\ude00. <\/p>\n

A Russian spring offensive would be as prepared as it could be under the circumstances, go all-in and where the core consisted of 150,000 from before the September mobilization and the rest of the newly mobilized trained during winter and early spring. They supply the best equipment they have left and adapt tactics where they can. My assessment was that this was the last the Russians could muster and after that it was over.
\nUkraine would be able to meet this spring offensive, after their winter offensive, now equipped with top-shelf Western weapons (which they now got\u2026) and then during 2023 the war would end one way or another with Russian soldiers and washing machines on pallets out of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

There is nothing to indicate that Ukraine is stretched to the breaking point here. The whole discussion we had during the spring with the two distinct sides that Ukraine was close to breaking or that they were building up an offensive capacity because the critical mass was in their favor resulted in Izyum, Kupiansk sprint, Operation Badanka and the Lyman slaughter instead of frozen war, trench warfare or Ukrainian defeat.<\/p>\n

Insiders are said to have confirmed that the Belarus army is 15,000 fighting rather than 90,000 strong and the Russians probably have 20-25,000 in Belarus now?
\n-Belarus is enough for trolling that ties up Ukrainian troops. Artillery shelling, some spinning maybe a bit into Ukraine, the really brave throw grenades over the border post, type. If they try an offensive it ends badly and above all Belarus falls but Lukashenko has managed to balance outside the conflict for a year, there is not much to suggest he will go all in now right at the end?<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s maneuver brigades have a rotation system where they keep 1-2 battalions on the front lines and the rest in the rear and they have been able to set up at least two new mech brigades as we have read.
\nArmy brigades are reshaped according to NATO standards and surplus personnel are sent to regiments and pooled into new units. There are about 50 army brigades total?
\n(I don’t quite understand this because a Ukrainian brigade would be smaller than NATO’s but maybe it’s the extra battalions they scale down?)<\/p>\n

NG is considered maneuver brigades and very capable. There were 7 brigades if I recall correctly.<\/p>\n

Territorial is now capable infantry brigades (at least) and according to Gregg territorial is now 250,000 strong. At least about 30 brigades formed and then a host of local defense units.<\/p>\n

Additionally an endless number of volunteer battalions, SOF, reconnaissance, partisans, SBU, border guards, special forces police, and both the army, NG and Territorial have various battalion-sized units.<\/p>\n

Brigades that can be used operationally should number +350,000 in personnel?<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s losses have according to sources been 15,000 and then maybe we have 50,000 total out of combat effective.
\nThe line is long to a fighting unit and people try to bribe their way into a spot.
\nBrigades are supplied with new personnel over time, they have maintained command chains and experience transfer.<\/p>\n

We saw a film of how Ukrainian SOF was drone-guided in taking a fortification system. I would say that is the higher school. I always wonder how you get right-left correct as a drone operator because I thought driving to a map and directing a driver was damn hard when it happened. Here you have to get soldiers in combat to run the right way and the drone is not always behind and the soldiers do not always move forward but circle around in different groups. And who is who when everyone is equally muddy, and where is where in the fortification system’s spider web \u2013 how do you communicate this so that it adds something to fighting units in the fortification. Higher school!<\/p>\n

I cannot answer how armored Ukraine is today, but I have noted that it has gone from BMP-1, BTR-60, and T64 to BMP-3, later BTR, and modified T72 in the videos we receive, which signals that they have upgraded hard vehicles over time here.
\nAccording to Oryx, Ukraine has captured a total of 3,000 vehicles, for example, and we know that workshops throughout Eastern Europe are working on repairing equipment for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

If the Russians have somewhere around 150,000 remaining capable units and then 300,000 minus the dead of mobilized troops, it is on par with Ukraine’s maneuver brigades.
\nBut, Ukraine lets other units handle defense in quiet front sections, and the Russians have to subtract this pool for that. For example, the 20,000\u201325,000 in Belarus.
\nThen I would probably argue that a Ukrainian army brigade today is worth several times more than the Russian equivalent, provided it is not VDV in prepared defense.<\/p>\n

The problem Ukraine faces is that attacking prepared defenses is costly, and they cannot lose too much of their capacity since they need to secure a huge border as soon as the Russians are out. If their capability is reduced too much, it will be a Pyrrhic victory and uncertain in a second round.<\/p>\n

Now, I do not know how large SOF, partisans, SBU, reconnaissance, and other infiltrating units such as Azov, airmobile, etc., are, but one can probably guess that there is quite a large hornet swarm behind Russian lines today, and they make a difference every day. Not to forget all of the West\u2019s SOF \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

We have confirmed that the Russians have been enormously damaged by a few months with HIMARS, and HIMARS tirelessly continues to decimate Russian rear areas. According to CNN, Russian artillery has decreased by 75%, but of course, that also includes knocked-out Russian artillery systems. Then ISW considers that supply problems prevent a Russian offensive at all this year, right or wrong.<\/p>\n

The Ukrainian Air Force and army aviation are very active.<\/p>\n

I am quite convinced from videos that Ukraine has now adapted tactics and found a way to take fortification systems with minimal losses; everything hard in defense gets a 155mm shell, drone grenades against fortification systems, air bursts against the fortifications, 155mm when everyone runs into the covered fortification. Then direct fire with tanks for a while, and when it is time for anti-tank shooting, it is a rather tired defense of the fortification and not much fairness.<\/p>\n

It is thus only a matter of time before the war is won, and the more elite units the Russians consume in Soledar and Bakhmut, the faster it goes.<\/p>\n

The above is just a discussion about capability if there are doubts, but now I think we have caught a scent of negotiations here and positioning ahead of them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:02<\/h2>\n

Now we have as many pieces of information outside the normal as possible here.<\/p>\n

Therefore, I have guessed that these completely pointless assault attempts with elite units are positioning ahead of negotiations from the Russian side.<\/p>\n

If they are not, at least I have no explanation for what they are doing, especially since they themselves expect an offensive from Ukraine down at the Southern front while they are pulling units away from there and Ukraine is sniffing around the suburbs of Kreminna.<\/p>\n

Everything indicates that the Russians want to achieve something of (relative) value now.<\/p>\n

We will see, between January 15-20 there will be new missile attacks; if the deadly moped drone rain does not come, then we have another anomaly.<\/p>\n

It seems like Ukraine has hacked away at Russian front-line airbases at least, which should be considered preparation for an offensive that is quite close to starting.<\/p>\n

Erik14 has been sniffing around this for a few days, and it seems like Ukraine is seriously approaching Kreminna. According to earlier, it will be a military formation releasing a handful of ants when the city falls and Ukraine scatters in all directions provided they control the dominant terrain just east of the city.
\nThat is absolutely also a strong card for Ukraine in the negotiations.<\/p>\n

The other is that the Russians never took Soledar or Bakhmut despite throwing in their best units.<\/p>\n

Now maybe I have googled poorly, but I think Gulaschbaronen and Basarsultanen have toned down a bit here?
\nhttps:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-01-05\/turkey-erdogan-urges-vladimir-putin-to-declare-unilateral-cease-fire-in-ukraine<\/a><\/p>\n

I see a poor negotiating position for Russia and a fairly reasonable ten-point list from Zelensky that is toned down; he does not demand Putin\u2019s feet in a system bag.<\/p>\n

And not least \u2013 this is Russia\u2019s last chance to offer anything at all here; if they wait too long, they have no land to return when the Russian army spontaneously retreats from Ukraine. First, they will withdraw from northern Luhansk, then they will voluntarily empty Crimea, and finally, it will become untenable in the darkest Donbass, and then Ukraine has no reason to negotiate peace.<\/p>\n

The coming month\/months are the time when Russia has anything at all to negotiate about, and if you want to avoid The Hague and keep the bank account, you can probably work wonders at the negotiating table after a couple of rounds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:11<\/h3>\n

So you mean that Russian equipment and especially T72 will stand just as high on shopping lists going forward after all the turret throws?
\nSince no one is affected by how a weapon system performs in Ukraine, I suppose?<\/p>\n

And that the manufacturers of NLAW and 777 got lots of new orders has nothing to do with Ukraine?
\nOr Bayraktar as Svambob says, they must have gotten to buy new order books, but that also has nothing to do with Ukraine?<\/p>\n

A weapon system proven to be effective in war naturally gets good publicity from it.
\nIf you have 5 equivalent IFVs or tracked howitzers to choose from, of which you know one performed very well in Ukraine, that is a plus, a strong reference.<\/p>\n

There was a very negative attitude towards Gripen, capital letters and exclamation marks, the Czech Republic does not agree and announces that they count as Europe \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Then I must point out that there are certain companies that think it is good business to scale up when they see a long-term trend in demand, and defense equipment tends to be just that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:18<\/h4>\n

Forgot that Poland probably ordered 500 HIMARS at once as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:26<\/h3>\n

What could they have left of these, under 200,000?<\/p>\n

By this time, they have learned to become infantry and can perhaps function in defense.
\nThey can of course also be used for attack but probably have low capability.<\/p>\n

I interpret this as the Russians having had to deploy units they intended to train until the spring offensive due to Ukraine\u2019s high pressure.<\/p>\n

The other alternative is that they want to achieve something ahead of negotiations and think that sacrificing a few hundred thousand more is worth the free card from The Hague and keeping the bank account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:31<\/h3>\n

If the comment one step up was unclear.<\/p>\n

-you have a button behind the loader, a large round sponge-shaped button.
\n-you press it with your elbow and then a hatch to the ammunition opens.
\n-the ammunition is stored in a compartment outside the turret designed to explode upwards.
\n-you can if you want have a couple of bumpers in the turret.
\n-you choose which type you get when you open the hatch, I think, arrow or explosive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:41<\/h2>\n

Soledar, are there no mine tunnels going west from the circled area?
\nIt is not Ukraine’s style to allow themselves to be encircled but some prisoners are taken all the time.<\/p>\n

The map does not suggest a complete breakthrough if Soledar is taken even though it would have been desirable to hold Soledar.
\nThere are lines and areas to fortify immediately west of Soledar, a watercourse and two communities.<\/p>\n

After that, there are open fields and new defensive positions a few kilometers away.<\/p>\n

And if everything collapses, we have the main line Kramatorsk\/Slovyansk \u2013 down to before Horlivka.
\nIt runs in a semicircle, like swimming into a crayfish trap.<\/p>\n

At the same time as Soledar plays out, (pro-Russian)
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1613296374954557441?s=20&t=a8Fw5FNTkRGh3Bymo9aupQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:08<\/h2>\n

The eel’s negotiation tactics are becoming a standing joke.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/COdendahl\/status\/1613515864166334464?s=20&t=VKuhDswUkXZqh4iYJ4N1kg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:25<\/h2>\n

Just saw that Politico says Germany wants guidance from the USA, a NATO-wide decision to send tanks. Finland and Poland have said that too, right?<\/p>\n

Has there been a very big discussion about nothing today?<\/p>\n

Is there value in the thread running to the source, reading the source, and then gathering for discussion on the really hot topics?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:50<\/h2>\n

Today the thread was lively and people have thought twice or even more before posting and everything is misinterpreted.<\/p>\n

We can be confident that Leo2 will come to Ukraine eventually. I had hoped that the whole issue could be dropped but I have to admit that Poland never misses a chance for a jab. I have some understanding for that.<\/p>\n

A comment about weathercocks, turncoats and shamelessness when it comes to Germany, I think it is a bit unfair and would rather be called a politician, opinion maker or any senior manager.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:56<\/h2>\n

More problems with Chinese equipment, one can guess the Chinese have sold tires in masses to the Russians and in too cold temperatures they crack
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/trenttelenko\/status\/1613203474136670209?s=46&t=fmhMt4VW7TEjxiLtd-vHpw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:58<\/h2>\n

Now one has spent too much time on Russian forums and no victory cheers and samovar swinging at all there.
\nIf the Russians had controlled all of Soledar including the dominating terrain west of the town up in the mine, we would have had the rounds on Russian social accounts.<\/p>\n

My take on this is that Ukraine has retreated from the town of Soledar but holds the dominating terrain west of the town by the salt mine and the railway station. That is where all the cool buildings are, nice firing positions and a solid height in the middle.<\/p>\n

It probably got a bit cramped in the town of Soledar and the Russians could concentrate all artillery on a single point but now it is a bit spread out again and the Russians have to get up and run across open fields again which usually results in high daily losses.<\/p>\n

Alternatively, they stay in the town of Soledar.<\/p>\n

They have put VDV, Guards, “real” Wagner and T90 in the fights.<\/p>\n

If there is a Ukrainian counterattack and they take the town of Soledar, it could happen but as I see it, they can just as well go on defense in the terrain just west of the town.<\/p>\n

Now the Russians have weakened the Southern front to get here\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:44 Now I am worn out here because I really have high hopes for Scholz but still want to ask 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