{"id":7441,"date":"2023-01-17T09:46:32","date_gmt":"2023-01-17T08:46:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-17-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:30:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:30:16","slug":"2023-01-17-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-17-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:04<\/h2>\n

Now you never keep track of the time, the last time I managed it was with the big losses in September and onwards. I thought around Christmas that one could let this go a bit but now I think the negativity is starting to spread again without any reasonable cause to see for it.<\/p>\n

The video below clarifies the concepts quite well I think and is a primary source regarding Soledar and Bakhmut, it\u2019s not only in the thread that people are worried but the country Ukraine is worried about Soledar and Bakhmut and then of course we have a massive underlying Russian psyops.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1615028366226096152?s=20&t=avDA4Qaj3avsrTCmcORCww<\/a><\/p>\n

Apparently Gerasimov has been ordered to take Donetsk Oblast by March, I guess the Russians threw in their elite units around January 6 for a sneaky coup-like and mean attack in Ukrainian uniforms on Soledar and Bakhmut which was completely foreseen by Ukraine.<\/p>\n

I was obviously wrong in thinking the Russians would not sacrifice their elite units going forward which was very likely \u2013 they saved the guards units in Izyum and left with light vehicles over a pontoon bridge, they pulled out VDV from Kherson weeks before operation Badanka, they withdrew ethnically Russian units from Lyman and let LPR\/DPR take the hit.<\/p>\n

Until January 6 the better units have been held in the rear or as offensive reserve in case of a breakthrough and they have let newly mobilized, poorer Wagner and LPR\/DPR take the hits. The losses have not mattered, newly mobilized in and newly mobilized out.<\/p>\n

That changed overnight when Gerasimov\u2019s career was in danger and now they are putting in everything they have between Vuhledar \u2013 Kreminna. As is well known, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s that simple and that other factors are simmering behind but it sounded good.<\/p>\n

If you do a map check you quickly see that the Russians still have a huge area left to try to conquer and that they have not reached the last defensive line yet, and they will never succeed in their eager attempts to steal land. The order to take Donetsk Oblast will never be fulfilled.<\/p>\n

Then I find it hard to see the value of this anymore, the only ones who could push for land concessions were France and Germany and they have given up on that. Turkey and Hungary are not listened to and China will never push that issue \u2013 the question is floating around dead on its back in the water.<\/p>\n

I may be exaggerating with 2000 per day, it\u2019s more reasonable with 1500 put out of combat. That would mean 10,000 \u2013 15,000 of the better units gone in a few weeks, probably more if you could count all the HIMARSed barracks. Despite the persistent offensive and the illusion it creates when their battalions go to zero, things are actually going really badly now.<\/p>\n

If I have guessed that they had 150,000 in capable units left, where marines, VDV, reconnaissance and Spetsnaz are the elite, they have used up 10% in a few weeks, with an overweight on the elite.<\/p>\n

These are thus all capable army units in the country Russia but then you add all the private armies that the six or whatever agencies there are, FSB, GRU etc. Those who are meant to harass the citizens in the country Russia and defend the leadership of that group against other rogue private armies. Now it\u2019s just about getting Russia to turn inward\u2026<\/p>\n

UA has gained a foothold in Kreminna and it\u2019s only a matter of time before the city falls and then it\u2019s only a matter of time before northern Luhansk falls. The fact is that Ukraine is already inside the NS line through Svatove (down by Kreminna) and the next defensive line is the NS line through Starobilsk behind that.<\/p>\n

They are inside forest and buildings where Ukrainian SOF, reconnaissance and patrols from elite units can move stealthily. They have night fighting capability and the Russians are lying in a hole waiting to be taken out \u2013 they are prey rather than a threat.
\nMany maps except Deepstatemap indicate that UA also has a foothold in the forest area just north of the city.<\/p>\n

When northern Luhansk falls then the Russians must start the spring offensive from Russian territory if they don\u2019t want to start south of Luhansk.
\nIf they want to start south of Luhansk they have to get down via the N-S road\/railway inside Russian territory which is at a convenient distance from northern Luhansk for long-range weapons and SOF who can lay mines and carry out fire ambushes, they can disrupt that supply route very effectively. Then you can probably take the really long way around if you want but then they become vulnerable to small sabotage against the railway instead over a huge area and we know Ukraine has sabotage units deep behind lines.<\/p>\n

The Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk line holds, now Gregg went out saying that the line just west of Soledar holds. No breakthrough at all thus. Ukraine has also sent elite units there now, Azov and the international legion have been mentioned and I have gotten the impression that air-mobile and j\u00e4ger (however that is translated, mountain?) have been pushed forward as well. Ukraine should then be ready to exploit weaknesses if they appear between Bakhmut and Siversk.<\/p>\n

The southern front is a bit tricky, either the Russians should advance or Ukraine should, right now not much is happening. Since the Russians are attacking from Vuhledar and northwards right now it\u2019s not unreasonable that they increase pressure between Vasylivka \u2013 Vuhledar as well?
\nThe Russians have been convinced that UA will attack there but now it seems they have recently brought forward offensive reserves to the southern front between Vasylivka \u2013 Vuhledar.<\/p>\n

Then the expected trolling from Belarus\u2026 exercise now until Feb 1 so anything can happen. S400 from Belarus is not big enough for that trolling I think. If they try to go south it will be mass murder and I refuse to believe they are that stupid but everything has happened in this war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:14<\/h2>\n

Gudrun was not alone in voicing that a ceasefire is now needed, environmental concerns have recently been raised as a reason for an immediate ceasefire \u2013 tanks are big CO2 emitters and then SVT had its article about the Russian cancer children and that was probably against sanctions.<\/p>\n

A quick Google search shows that the Russians do not want the West as mediator but they can consider \u201cpeace talks\u201d now.<\/p>\n

Then I am curious if the below is true, source and text are highly uncertain but it says that there can be peace as long as Ukraine is not a threat and there is no discrimination of Russians in the country. It says nothing about wanting to keep land and Turkey has already gone out saying they support Zelensky\u2019s proposal, which is the 1991 borders. Don\u2019t read too much into this at all.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.tvr.by\/eng\/news\/v_mire\/nebenzya_rossiya_gotova_k_dostizheniyu_tseley_svo_putem_mirnykh_peregovorov\/<\/a>
\n\u201cRussia is ready to achieve the goals of a special military operation through peaceful negotiations. If such a scenario is not implemented, the tasks will be accomplished by military methods. This was stated by Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Security Council Vasily Nebenzya, BelTA informs.
\nVasily Nebenzya stressed that the special operation can be stopped as long as there are no threats to Russia from the Ukrainian territory. In addition, it is necessary to stop discrimination of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine. If the announced results can be achieved through negotiations, Russia is ready for such a scenario. Otherwise, the goals and objectives of the special operation will still be achieved, but by military means\u201d.<\/p>\n

The more information one gets about Ramstein, the clearer it becomes that Ukraine will get the offensive capability they need now, and everything is being deployed for the spring offensive. The charm is that with every Western MBT and IFV that comes in, a Soviet equivalent is freed up. If Western equipment is supplied to 3-4 brigades, then 3-4 more brigades will get all the leftover Soviet armor, and suddenly you have 6-8 brigades fully equipped with either Western equipment or serviceable Soviet equipment, BMP-2\/3, newer BTRs, modified T72s, some T80s and T90s, etc. Then older equipment probably goes to other brigades, I imagine.<\/p>\n

6-8 very well-functioning elite mechanized brigades under Europe’s strongest air defense, with wizard-level indirect fire and superior intelligence gathering, the Russians will never be able to stop them no matter how much they want to. This is probably where it starts to get sweaty for the battalion commander and the command leadership?<\/p>\n

And then on top of that, Germany and France no longer pushing a negotiated solution, Ukraine having the audacity to defend itself, and China having backed down (though China just threatened Japan\u2026).
\nI fully understand that Russian command is putting everything on one card right now.<\/p>\n

We probably have the three outcomes of the winter offensive and likely won’t know how it looks until a week or two into it. What is very clear, however, is that Ukraine is currently preparing an unstoppable offensive reserve for a spring offensive.<\/p>\n

The Russians’ threat of general mobilization is panic, not because they enjoy it. I am of the opinion that they could manage a mobilization if they handle it smoothly, and there were rumors that they tried to downplay the whole thing. If they are forced into grand gestures and harsh actions, the chance of unrest within the country increases, and Russia turns inward, exponentially.<\/p>\n

Putin is probably already on the death spiral and slowly sliding down here; whatever they do will lead to something worse, which leads to something worse, and so on. That they did not choose a defensive strategy this winter means they do not believe they can manage it.<\/p>\n

IF it were the case that Putin receives completely wrong information and makes decisions on poor grounds that no one questions, that would be even better, but this is contradicted by the retreats at Izyum and Kherson; the command leadership tries to act rationally when needed, and then this all-out offensive is something they felt compelled to do.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:10<\/h3>\n

Surtrutn usually posts his Russian sources, and the latest was that Turkey supports Ukraine’s solution to the 1991 borders and that they have met in Turkey these days for discussions.
\nWe do not read this in Western media yet, which makes it even more interesting because for all this, one thinks the dictatorship cleans it out from its newspapers but we get more accurate information.
\nThat means this information is “planted” in regime-friendly media to prepare the ground for an end to the special operation. Right now, Turkey, Belarus, and Russian newspapers are more peace-loving than Western media.<\/p>\n

+1 that they called it a special operation so they wouldn’t get 10 years in the Gulag.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:42<\/h2>\n

Austria has probably come up in the thread once, and they apparently have a line quite similar to Germany and Switzerland.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1615323725292867586?s=20&t=29eL7mFVBFWMtXqPOGIbcg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:59<\/h3>\n

But they are not neutral because they emphasize the importance of dialogue with Russia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:09<\/h2>\n

Strange about Areatovych. Has he made similar statements before?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1615306462351204353?s=46&t=0KG45EtoNnZYCkSX-HXC6g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:04 Now you never keep track of the time, the last time I managed it was with the big losses 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