{"id":7442,"date":"2023-01-16T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-16-6\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:30:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:30:15","slug":"2023-01-16-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-16-6\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:46<\/h2>\n

Going through Erik14’s night shift was very interesting, 2 VDV battalions in Kreminna and we know they have been in Soledar, maybe Bakhmut as well.<\/p>\n

We can be very confident that the Russians do not intend to leave Kreminna and the fact that Ukraine now has a foothold in the urban area itself is a strength.<\/p>\n

Urban combat is real 3D warfare, hard to learn and very easy to get shot, we had a couple of rounds of urban combat and it was mostly luck that no one was blinded by plastic pieces from the loose plug.<\/p>\n

I believe that the units the Russians have had on the NS line running through Svatove, where Kreminna is the southern anchor, have been LPR\/DPR and newly mobilized troops who have taken the first hit and then a couple of battalions of better units are held behind as an offensive reserve. The fact that they are now sending in VDV is because things are not going well.<\/p>\n

I understand how Ukraine managed to advance in the forest belt south of the city, it was so large that it could not be defended and their reconnaissance, SOF and general infiltration were probably quite easy to get through.<\/p>\n

What does it look like in the forest north of the city?
\nIt is small enough to have a coherent defense in and it is surrounded by fields, but it is quite a short stretch to cross if coming from the forest belt to the south and if you are in the urban area the jump up there is small, and above all the static defense should have been directed “outwards”.<\/p>\n

The forest lies close to the buildings and I think the western part of Kreminna looks hard to defend.<\/p>\n

This entire defensive line was hastily set up and the units defending are unmotivated and weaker, I find it hard to believe that they have been diligent and built a similar defense as we see in Bakhmut and Soledar, probably a company has been assigned an area and then they build the defense they can manage, and it is static. Except for the offensive reserve.<\/p>\n

Therefore, I think urban combat is also a strength for Ukraine, they have such a large amount of SOF, reconnaissance and elite units that master this now and in Kreminna it is not defense with overlapping fields of fire, there are always gaps they can get through. It is dark, they have night combat equipment etc.
\nThen we have the drones and indirect fire, pretty sure the Russians gather for warmth and that smoke comes out of chimneys and that the artillery is firing continuously.<\/p>\n

The most dangerous thing is the Russians’ better offensive reserve because when it is deployed there is a big imbalance in force distribution and they will come as surprisingly as they can, there is a risk of losses there.<\/p>\n

Chipping away at static defense probably goes quite well if not very well in this kind of terrain, a Russian in a hole is more of a prey than a threat.<\/p>\n

Taking the dominant terrain east of the road, there seem to be two slag heaps, then Kreminna is retaken and then you can move off in all directions.<\/p>\n

It is especially possible to infiltrate in the sky all the way into Severodonetsk and a good distance southeast of the city. When you unleash all SOF, reconnaissance and infiltrating units there it feels like good hunting grounds.<\/p>\n

That was how they advanced early in Izyum in the forest belt if you remember before tour-de-777 started and the eternal discussion about whether it was grass fires or grilled BTG, I now think 6000 IFVs later that it was probably grilled BTG.<\/p>\n

Kreminna is in no way similar to Kherson with a very well-prepared defense, the entire VDV and kilometers-long fields of fire.<\/p>\n

Then there are quite divided reports regarding the Southern front \u2013 whether the Russians are reinforcing or withdrawing units. Same at the Dnieper. It may very well be that the Russians are preparing an attack at the Southern front as well and then it is probably appropriate to let it play out.
\nIf the purpose of this Russian offensive has been to preempt a Ukrainian offensive, it is probably appropriate that the Russians also attack at the Southern front to preempt a Ukrainian offensive there?
\nI think it is confusing.<\/p>\n

Gregg noted by the way that UA reinforcements at Bakhmut and Soledar came from elite units so he speculated whether it was for offensive purposes. It was mentioned a few weeks ago that Azov and the international legion were brought there.<\/p>\n

I think we continuously see that battalions from 3-4-5 brigades are pooled together both in defense but also in offensive operations. It is quite neat because you rotate within the unit and rest up but it places quite high demands on leadership and cooperation so absolutely Ukraine has reached the higher school in most things here, wizard-level in everything.<\/p>\n

It also means that if Ukraine takes a hit like in Soledar then a couple of battalions from as many brigades get low combat value but the brigade as a whole maintains its combat value.<\/p>\n

Bradley training is ongoing in Germany and will take weeks and Putin increases to two tablets of omeprazole morning and evening\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:12<\/h2>\n

In the future outer defense of the EU, Sweden will probably have a leading role in defending the northern flank. Someone wrote an opinion piece that we should have two brigades for the defense of the Baltics so ideas are definitely being aired.<\/p>\n

If Kaliningrad can be demilitarized and Belarus brought over to the good side \u2013 and they were on the right track, then the EU’s eastern flank would be “straightened out” if defense can be set along the Belarus \u2013 Russia border.<\/p>\n

Getting rid of the Trojan horse Kaliningrad would be almost as valuable for NATO as getting Sweden and Finland on board so they are probably thinking about how to do that in an acceptable way.<\/p>\n

Belarus will probably take care of itself and then they have responsibility for their border defense with good relations with the EU.<\/p>\n

Then Sweden really does not have to plan for an invasion defense of the mainland like in the Cold War but Gotland is always suitable to have fortified and some offensive capability on the mainland.<\/p>\n

A strong navy which together with Finland’s rowboats and harpoons will be a big part of the defense of the Baltic Sea. I don’t know what Poland’s naval capacity looks like but maybe they are keen on that too?<\/p>\n

Germany at least had a Baltic Sea navy when they were East\/West and should also be part of the defense of our common waters, they had\/have very good smaller submarines.<\/p>\n

A navy is needed, during World War II Russian submarines got out into the Baltic Sea by “rooting” along the bottom between the stones to get under the Finnish minefields. They attached logs to the submarines so they would not be damaged. They always manage to slip out from St Petersburg and above all they will operate everything in twilight conditions. Then they move smaller ships\/submarines down internal canals from the Northern Fleet if needed and can sneak out into the Baltic Sea in twilight conditions.<\/p>\n

It will be a hard blow for Russia to lose Kaliningrad, probably stings as much as when they lost the ports in the Baltics, Poland, and East Germany.<\/p>\n

Aircraft that can partially be redeployed to the Baltics and Finland in case of war are a priority.<\/p>\n

The two mechanized\/armored brigades (if it is indeed two) that are our contribution to defending the EU’s eastern border should be solid sledgehammers, and we have all the weapon systems: Archer, CV90, Leopard (or another MBT), Patria, grenade launchers, LVKV, but we should probably top them up with HIMARS, at least that’s what I think.<\/p>\n

In the 90s, I went to see an evaluation of MLRS in \u00c4lvdalen, and as a comparison, they also did a salvo with the Bkan. The difference was that everyone in their star-studded uniforms burst out in a woooooow and jumped up and down like my kids on Christmas over all the death those could deliver. Guided ammunition is definitely the future, but back then it was probably dumb ammunition, I guess.<\/p>\n

J\u00e4gers in all their forms who can operate in Finland and the Baltics\u2014I think one should be cautious with j\u00e4gar units there.<\/p>\n

Then we probably need our SOF as a counterforce against subversive activities within the country.<\/p>\n

I’m getting more and more enthusiastic about missiles in all their forms, preferably the small mobile missile carriers that are hard to knock out, anti-ship missiles and LV above all, I suppose.
\nWhen you’re in a larger weapon system, the platform is always something you have to manage. We were envious of the Robot56 bill groups that lay hidden in the terrain with an IR camouflage net in front (that’s what we were told it was) and had a high chance of survival.<\/p>\n

Maybe I’m stuck in the 90s, but I’ve always thought that on Gotland, you should have missiles in all their forms in small groups and portable\/movable instead of a few large missile carriers that are more valuable than gold.<\/p>\n

A mechanized brigade is a target on wheels now, even for small drones in the future, and you probably have to think in terms of it being worth a lot of money and effort to protect a tank so it can be used for its combat mission. A few standalone LVKV and Robot70 are not enough; it probably needs to be fully integrated down to the company level with at least defense against drones.<\/p>\n

If there’s one thing the Russians will have learned after this war, it’s that drones were the new black, and it will be a bit like Germany in WW1, where they got beaten by tanks and invested in that while the French thought it was smarter to build a defensive line in the wrong place.<\/p>\n

Add a layer of home guard on top of that, and we probably have the defense of the future.<\/p>\n

The development of drone weapons.<\/p>\n

And a rapid reaction battalion for international missions with light and heavy companies.<\/p>\n

Voila, our future defense, preferably with some offensive capability within the country if you want to set up more brigades. Personally, I am quite in favor of mechanized brigades and think everyone should be, I don’t have all the capabilities within the brigade, and P has too little armored infantry, but that probably has something to do with being in Str\u00e4ngn\u00e4s maybe and then never understanding what the Sk\u00e5ne armor said when they tried to explain their excellence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:06<\/h3>\n

When I started at university in Scotland, I had problems; my English was so-so coming from Sweden, and then a layer of incomprehensible Scottish on top of that.<\/p>\n

There was high rivalry between the units at that time; the infantry was always mocked, and it was the constant \u2013 just charge straight at those who haven’t cleared the firing field, and you’ll see marathon runners.<\/p>\n

I don’t remember exactly what we said about the Sk\u00e5ne armor, I try to weave some of it in when there are discussions about Sweden, and I hope it is not taken the wrong way \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:32<\/h3>\n

I was there a couple of years ago when we were thinking about where to move, there was a huge house for sale in Str\u00e4ngn\u00e4s but it was bid away.
\nTook a trip to the regiment where you can drive in now and then over the bridge to the training field and whatever it was called where the tanks stood.
\nGot quite emotional because it was a pretty intense period with strong memories, my wife had a bit of trouble understanding all the \u2013 Aaaah but god, at some little wooden goat that stood on the ground or when I stood in some doorway and ran in and out ten times.<\/p>\n

It’s actually close to Stockholm, so not a bad idea to revive it as a regimental location, I think. You take the commuter train in 40 minutes, maybe there are better areas, I don’t know \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Yes, it was quite an important brigade, MekB10, Oxel\u00f6sund and the Uppsala plains and more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:13<\/h2>\n

Wasn’t there supposed to be a general mobilization on January 15?<\/p>\n

The latest word was that the Kremlin is trying to sneak in the mobilization, but has anyone heard anything at all?<\/p>\n

Last time it happened, we were flooded with videos of reluctant citizens being dragged away; the best was the two young men who, a bit moderately drunk, stood boasting to reporters that they supported the Ukraine war and all the death the Ukrainians deserved, and then the police came and grabbed one of them for front-line service; he was anything but a supporter of the war when he was dragged away.<\/p>\n

This is highly interesting because Russia has just announced that they will set up 20 new divisions, and then you have to go all in with this mobilization round. I believe, as is well known, that there is a lot of talk now and that they are getting tired for an end to the special operation \u2013 how this mobilization is done is probably a very clear indication of how they think about themselves and their families’ future.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:36<\/h3>\n

This negotiation that I have started to float is like this \u2013<\/p>\n

Ukraine gets back all its land, the Russians refuse to agree to that.<\/p>\n

In a month, northern Luhansk falls, and the Russians drag themselves to negotiations again; they then get a final offer \u2013 leave all of Ukraine, and they get to submit two lists of people who will not be sent to The Hague and who get their bank accounts unfrozen, and some sanctions are probably lifted.<\/p>\n

I think the Russians will take it, hence the war ends around mid-year. If they don’t, they’re out before the year ends.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:50<\/h2>\n

The Belarusian exercise lasts two weeks, what’s the worst that can happen?
\nThe worst for Russia must still be if they try a small campaign against Lviv or Kiev?<\/p>\n

Ukraine has at least practiced coup defense in Kiev, and even the beavers are fighting for freedom.<\/p>\n

I also don’t think Ukraine has unlocked many maneuver units there without it being territorial behind the forest of mines.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:54<\/h2>\n

Then I think it’s hysterically funny that the Russians have gone out saying they need a general mobilization if Ukraine gets German tanks (because Donbass is Russian territory).<\/p>\n

It’s basically the same as saying that they are terrified of the Leopards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:01<\/h3>\n

Anything can probably happen \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Since the new black is IFV and we have quite a large fleet of CV90s, I don’t think it’s unreasonable at all, and the government continues to talk about more offensive weapons. Our government must reasonably have learned from Germany how not to crash their PR?<\/p>\n

There is actually a bit of a shortage of tanks, and if, against all odds, they were to donate, it would be a company and more in solidarity with other countries than because they can spare them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:15<\/h2>\n

The UK is going to send Bulldog APCs (that’s what they’re called, right?), a notch better than the M113, and you can probably swap out the 7.62mm for a ZSU-2 or 12.7mm? There is a whole weapons platform to mount something on.<\/p>\n

Then the US has promised to send M1117s, there has been talk about Strykers, the French promised “hundreds” of Renault vehicles, the UK has hinted at more blast-protected ones. It\u2019s maybe not entirely unlikely that PBV302 will come because right now it seems like they are digging quite deep into the barns. It’s a bit annoying that there will be so many different models for maintenance and service, but really you just need to get them out in a spring offensive and then hopefully that\u2019s it.<\/p>\n

It will probably be a huge list after Rammstein that we can sit and cheer about all day.<\/p>\n

Ukraine will soon have a large number of “mechanized brigades” that look like an EU migrant camp on the move but they have blast protection, mounted weapon systems, and support from tanks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:46 Going through Erik14’s night shift was very interesting, 2 VDV battalions in Kreminna and we know they have been 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