{"id":7451,"date":"2023-01-20T09:17:27","date_gmt":"2023-01-20T08:17:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-20-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:31:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:31:19","slug":"2023-01-20-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-20-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-20"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Damn, is the communication about the Ramstein meeting ongoing? I had hoped to make it to the afternoon before the Systembolaget’s mid-range beers were opened and flowed freely.<\/p>\n

Haven’t had time to buy chips yet, but it will also be one of the crunchier brands.<\/p>\n

This is probably the best day of the war for us peace lovers?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ideally, we want to end this war with the Russians voluntarily leaving all Ukrainian territory.<\/p>\n

Of course, there is a threat ladder; offensive weapons have finally arrived, but there are a few more.
\nThe EU announcing a “war crimes tribunal” is politically correct and also part of the escalation.
\n150km range was another.<\/p>\n

What remains are \u2013 even longer-range indirect weapons, advanced aircraft, ground attack and army aviation in all its forms, The Hague, increased sanctions, and probably the biggest threat \u2013 an expanded sanctions list with individuals in a broader circle and naming names for The Hague\/EU.<\/p>\n

Right now, Putin and his inner circle are in a bad position \u2013 Peskov, Lavrov, Gerasimov, Shoigu, Medvedev, and a few others, they are already internationally condemned.<\/p>\n

Then comes command leadership, brigade commanders and downwards to be prosecuted where war crimes can be proven, and that can be done.<\/p>\n

But in between, there is a large and strong group that is not eager to spend their lives in prison or lose their family fortunes, and that is where I believe the weak point to get Russia to turn inward lies.<\/p>\n

At least the FSB, GRU, and all agencies. I find it hard to believe that Prigozhin is anything but a front figure, and we probably haven’t seen the FSB candidate for power yet, or maybe it is Prigozhin?<\/p>\n

As long as there was a chance to freeze the conflict and have a low-intensity conflict, quite a few were probably willing to keep quiet and endure; they knew what they had, and taking a misstep with an uncertain outcome is a high risk they prefer to avoid.<\/p>\n

Since the turn of the year (or earlier…), everyone has understood that it is only a matter of time before they are expelled from Ukraine.
\nWhen they are forced out violently, there will be nothing left to negotiate; then The Hague applies if they leave Russia, and all confiscated oligarch assets\/money are used to rebuild Ukraine, and sanctions remain until a long list has gone to The Hague. They might get some freedom of movement in China and the Middle East, but how fun is that when you’re used to Londongrad.<\/p>\n

Surtrut posted a couple of notices in Russian media before Christmas about negotiations in Turkey with someone we didn’t know by name; Turkey supported the 1991 borders, and we have read many statements that peace is possible as long as it is not a future threat, etc. Land annexation is no longer a demand in what I have read in the past week.<\/p>\n

At the same time, before Christmas, Putin still demanded a piece of land in talks with Scholz or Macron (I don’t remember who) and has now demanded that the army exhaust its elite units for a piece of potato field completely unnecessarily.<\/p>\n

I don’t know Russians well enough but guess they are quite pragmatic and look after themselves and their close ones, so Putin was probably tolerated as long as he delivered, and now after the New Year, it is clear to everyone with internet access that his luck has run out.<\/p>\n

Putin and his closest cannot really “give up” because then they fall \u2013 it’s full throttle ahead.
\nChange will therefore come from other groups who see their bright future disappear just because Putin power-tripped and overread about Peter the Great, and they realize Putin can only go full throttle.<\/p>\n

Of course, the Ukrainian counterpart in these talks we can guess are ongoing has both shining orange carrots and a very big stick. Probably it is immunity and the money back to the groups around the hardcore Putin club if there is peace. That is a carrot I would have dangled in front of them at least.
\nThe threat is that if the spring offensive starts, we will not return to the negotiating table because we don’t need to.<\/p>\n

It could probably turn into a civil war because there are too many private armies in the country supporting the different groups. I would not be surprised at all if Putin’s private army has the capacity for neat executions, novichok, and all that, because that is a competence he is probably tired of constantly asking the FSB for help with.<\/p>\n

Wagner is hiring the entire 1st and 2nd Army and suddenly becomes a power factor \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

The other is actually the army; I was quite sure they would not let the elite units die because they didn’t at Izyum, Lyman, and Kherson, and before January 6 all-out war, the better units were either as rapid reaction forces or in the rear; it was newly mobilized, LPR, and DPR that died in the trenches.<\/p>\n

They have shown a high willingness to save the better units, and the retreat at Izyum came so suddenly after official communication that the city would be held, so they probably went against Putin there.<\/p>\n

This changed on January 6, 2023, and now the elite units are attacking over a very broad front from Vuhledar \u2013 Kreminna, and we read a few days ago in an Erik14 post that the VDV lost 100 men in a day near some city. We know they are fighting in Bakhmut, Kreminna, and Soledar.<\/p>\n

In between, when there was time, I managed to see the longer reports posted about the start of the war, and they deployed Spetsnaz and VDV first, the spearhead and all that, and they took enormous losses.<\/p>\n

At the school in Kharkiv, they were on the roof calling in artillery support, CAS, and rescue but got nothing, and finally, a dozen Spetsnaz all with lieutenant rank jumped from the roof \u2013 what an incredible waste, and the same was true for the VDV at Hostomel.
\nThe height of idiocy was probably the +30 attack divers who died on some hill outside Kharkiv, peak resource waste.<\/p>\n

Gradually, they had pulled the elite units out of the worst battles, but Spetsnaz is probably still engaged in infiltration and that type of tasks.<\/p>\n

That they are now wasting the last competent units for a few kilometers of fields in eastern Ukraine when the war is already lost can even a Russian officer see, and there is a lot of corps spirit and pride in Spetsnaz and VDV, and even the best Guards units probably feel they haven’t quite lived up to historical feats here.<\/p>\n

If the army could retreat from Izyum, Lyman, and Kherson, they can withdraw from northern Luhansk, the southern front, and Crimea too, as long as Ukraine increases the pressure enough.<\/p>\n

Maybe that is why Gerasimov is down leading from the front now, to make sure no brigade or army commander gets any ideas?<\/p>\n

Either the army retreats, or there will be a palace coup and peace is made, and if not, Ukraine takes back the whole country by force \u2013 one of the three we will see during 2023.
\nWhat comes first is never known, but the outcome is the same: Russia leaves all of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

There is also a huge dark horse that I guess I am the only one pushing, but I see it as quite a high probability \ud83d\ude00
\nParallel to the discussions about peace with Russia, there are naturally explorations ongoing with LPR\/DPR. To clarify, when I write this I mean the 1st and 2nd Army.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has already announced that the 2nd Army is considering surrendering if Ukraine approaches Luhansk, so there is at least one Ukrainian major general who has thought about that as well.<\/p>\n

Of course, the same applies there \u2013 you can negotiate as long as you have something to negotiate about.
\nThis list is war criminals (none from the 1st and 2nd Army) and we want peace and that you are welcome into the EU.
\nAnyone who wants can gladly move to Russia, we don’t mind, we won’t stop anyone.<\/p>\n

If the 2nd Army goes into a huge hedgehog in Luhansk and says no-more war, what do the Russians do then?
\nOr just let a Ukrainian offensive through on the front sections they hold?
\nAccording to the blogger Lutz, it is total misery in the rebel armies now and they have not been treated particularly well here, as we have heard.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The winter offensive has three outcomes and to be precise it is already underway,
\n-The Russians manage to hold their defensive positions which seems increasingly unlikely if you look at northern Luhansk.
\n-The second is that Ukraine retakes northern Luhansk and attacks towards Azov \u2013 not entirely unlikely and at least northern Luhansk is probably a done deal before winter ends.
\n-The third is that Russia leaves Ukraine under the pressure of the winter offensive \u2013 I don\u2019t think that will happen without a spring offensive for that, provided that the 1st and 2nd Army haven\u2019t thrown in the towel or that peace has been brokered.
\nWhat will the spring offensive look like?<\/p>\n

We probably already know by the weekend how many brigades Ukraine will be able to equip with Western armor and then basically as many brigades with good Eastern armor.<\/p>\n

If the 3rd Assault brigade or whatever that Azov unit is called has received T72 and BMP-1\/2 then there is probably enough good Eastern armor for the equivalent number of brigades that are now being equipped with Western armor. So T72s that are modded, T80 and T90 as well as BMP-2\/3 and later BTR, not to forget Ukraine\u2019s own PTGB.<\/p>\n

Each brigade probably has its own artillery battalion and then there is distribution artillery on top of that.<\/p>\n

If we guess 6-8 brigades that means a huge hammer on two fronts simultaneously to break through whatever defense the Russians set up.<\/p>\n

They have learned to attack Russians in defense with the lowest possible losses and there is no reason to believe they will go all in when attacking the defense systems this spring and start taking higher losses?<\/p>\n

But they have enough armor at the front, they no longer need to beg for 1-2 tank companies but get two mechanized brigades that are unstoppable.<\/p>\n

These mechanized brigades should naturally go around communities\/cities and if the defense doesn\u2019t get away, the infantry brigades with armored support from the countless other maneuver brigades will encircle and defeat them.<\/p>\n

You can go deep in a whole new way but then the question is what remains for the spring offensive. If the Azov strike remains, it is a given and will be fantastic.<\/p>\n

The darkest Donbass is probably a lot about infiltrating huge amounts of reconnaissance, SOF, activating partisans and infiltration from elite units. SBU and all Western SOF not to forget. You have to use the hammers to push in wedges and split defenses into islands that are defeated, the southern part of the darkest Donbass between Mariupol and Rostov-na-Don looks like tank terrain.
\nThe darkest Donbass has many large cities and you can\u2019t just spin in with mechanized brigades there but it will be the elite units dismounted with less armored support and indirect fire, right?<\/p>\n

Since it is spring then, bridge layers are needed again \u2013 which have been delivered.<\/p>\n

Indirect fire in all its glory and various forms and the drone weapon are all today at wizard level.<\/p>\n

I have thought that you don\u2019t need air superiority with the air defense screen but it doesn\u2019t hurt if the strike aircraft, ground attack and army aviation come \u2013 they are a bit trickier so the last five hundred on that is that they are already training on them, or at least we know they do with F16 but it sounded good that I just guessed.<\/p>\n

Now I really want to draw parallels to Operation Storm here and that it took four days but of course it won\u2019t.<\/p>\n

But it will go fast when Ukraine gets up speed in the spring offensive because the critical mass has been in their favor since last spring and they are building up an increasingly strong offensive reserve, then they have learned to attack defense systems without taking too big losses and all the different weapon systems are then in place.<\/p>\n

Crimea will be emptied voluntarily and the darkest Donbass will probably be retaken by force but then the front is so small that Ukraine can pool its best units in that area and the Russians will have trouble with all maintenance to and from due to long-range weapons and SOF in Russia. It will be like a deserted island being shot away.<\/p>\n

Preferably we want the war to be over before the spring offensive but of course it can also come to this and end after the spring offensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Exactly \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

If I interpret this correctly, right now there are 50 countries that have a united front and huge deliveries but Germany is sitting on the sidelines sulking with arms crossed and has as a red line that no Leos are sent to Ukraine?<\/p>\n

Leopard is not war-deciding, it is available now and if you get together 200-300 that would be great but others may come later. The important thing is the message that everyone agrees to give Russia a beating.<\/p>\n

And right now one of the heavyweights in Europe is not. We hear zero about France anymore for example, they have fallen in line in the rather long queue.<\/p>\n

If we yesterday talked about betrayal debate within the country if Germany doesn\u2019t give in, I think it will spread to the whole EU if Germany doesn\u2019t give up soon. Their position is partly wrong but also unsustainable, as a politician you give in for less than that.<\/p>\n

If it goes much further than this, those who can will start posting the dirt they have on Scholz and those who are braking and the dirty stuff can start which will eventually lead to a government crisis. I am pretty sure Ramstein was the occasion when Germany should have accepted delivery and gotten away with honor intact. If we pass Ramstein it will have consequences for the whole EU and the free West and there is no reason for all those who then suffer to just stand and watch.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

A low probability bet is posting recordings of Schulz\u2019s conversations with Putin from before the war started and onwards, not just the formal ones we know about. That would probably cause a government crisis on the spot and there are probably others who want to become chancellor in the country?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If Germany doesn\u2019t give in, haven\u2019t we reached the point where all third countries simply ignore Germany and send their Leo2s to Ukraine anyway?<\/p>\n

Then the USA tops up with Abrams for those countries?<\/p>\n

Then we get to see Germany really get angry, strangle-murdered children and castrations aside, but when someone goes and breaks their contracts with the German defense industry, then the country unites in its anger.<\/p>\n

And somewhere around there Europe stopped buying German?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I think that when the Germans finally give up and agree to Leo2, then I\u2019ll turn back again but quite discreetly.
\nActually, Germany doesn\u2019t need to donate Leo2s themselves, the rest of Europe will handle that, I believe, we have a total we need to reach and we will do that.<\/p>\n

For IFVs we now have 200 from the top shelf so 400 remain.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Someone wrote that China\u2019s exports to the EU have dropped 27%, either in this thread or the economy threads.
\nThere we have a reason as good as any for China to try to improve relations with the West by distancing itself from Putin\u2019s ravages.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

1.2.3.. and Macron will throw a bag of Leclercs into this soup and something about how they always rush to defense in major conflicts which will make the Germans absolutely furious and then it starts and finally Ukraine will have to start saying no.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:29 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Ha, ha hope you\u2019re right!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Does the German population know that they sold a hell of a lot of weapons to Russia after 2014?
\nHow did they suddenly become so peace-loving?
\n(I know but one is getting tired of them).<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/europe\/germany-exported-military-equipment-to-russia-despite-embargo-report\/2539421#<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here I went and bought chips with dip and semi-expensive beer and the thread has completely flipped.
\nNothing can crash my Friday binge and there\u2019s a day tomorrow too.<\/p>\n

The absolute last thing that will happen if nothing else works on the Teflon eel is that the third countries simply don\u2019t give a damn about Germany and send all the Leopards they have, the USA tops up with Abrams and a pat on the shoulder from Biden.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m so satisfied with the row of beers and the bowl of chips that I won\u2019t relapse and go all in on Scholz even though the open goal probably has never been bigger.<\/p>\n

Has Erik14 recovered from the hangover last night so we can start the night shift \ud83d\ude00
\n(it\u2019s about 6 o\u2019clock, I started too early\u2026)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Have you been driving around in circles with the walker in the living room for a few hours already with a couple of different cocktails standing on that little side platform \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If you\u2019ve had kids competing in sports you\u2019ve learned that the worse it goes, the livelier you get.
\nToday is one of those days.
\nSince my eldest\u2019s basketball team got beaten 95 \u2013 18 a few weeks ago, I have a black belt in handling defeat. Luckily no local newspaper caught wind of it because it probably matched some very old record.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now we\u2019ve had an Olympics of explanatory models for why the Germans and the eel refuse to take the right side in this conflict for a couple of weeks.<\/p>\n

For me it\u2019s very simple, if Ukraine wins it\u2019s good for me as a Swede in Sweden and if Ukraine loses it\u2019s bad for me as a Swede in Sweden. I base this on how Ukraine has managed its country up until February 24, 2022 and how the Russians have acted as occupiers with rapes of five-year-old children who were then tortured to death in front of their parents and castrations and more torture chambers per community than there were victims so they had to steal them from each other.<\/p>\n

This naturally applies to the German too \u2013 does he want to live as today or does he want to be castrated and have his children tortured-murdered-raped while they are forced to watch.<\/p>\n

Now maybe I\u2019m stating the obvious here but the Russians are not very happy about when the Germans last crawled out of the pot and tried to spread their worldview. They are not blood brothers on the other side of the border directly and if there\u2019s anyone they would like to seriously desecrate it\u2019s probably the Germans, they even have mobile crematoria.<\/p>\n

Now maybe more doors will be broken down but all of Europe has a certain skepticism towards the Germans\u2019 willingness to spread peace and hand hearts here because of a couple of previous wars which they stubbornly claim are in the past and that they are newly converted so when they slide over to peace being synonymous with letting the Russians continue their desecration of Ukraine with their sights set on Lisbon then there is some risk of aversion.<\/p>\n

There may even be those who remember when Germany and Russia divided Pol\u2026 (stopping there before the account gets shut down).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

The first thought was that for me it doesn\u2019t matter if it\u2019s good for me as a Swede or not. I mostly think about Ukraine. Beyond that, they get a big plus as usual.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:48 \u2013 Johan No.1 Damn, is the communication about the Ramstein meeting ongoing? I had hoped to make it to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-01-20 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-20-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-01-20 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:48 \u2013 Johan No.1 Damn, is the communication about the Ramstein meeting ongoing? 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