{"id":7453,"date":"2023-01-21T08:03:35","date_gmt":"2023-01-21T07:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-21-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:31:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:31:34","slug":"2023-01-21-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-21-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-21"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:11<\/h2>\n

It feels very good that Sweden went in so hard with CV90 and Archer. It will make a difference in the war, so it was not too little or too late but just right and on time. Then Sweden has not made it a big PR event but more like the UK just donating \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:46<\/h2>\n

I thought the thread showed great restraint yesterday, old classics like Liftwaffe and that everyone has the same pastel-colored tracksuits were completely absent and that was strong, high level throughout the evening and Dengamle was up after 21:00 \ud83d\udc4d.<\/p>\n

Day two and anything can happen but Ukraine politely thanks everyone already as it should be.<\/p>\n

I think Ulfus(?) and Van are great when they give a nuanced picture of why Germany acts as they do, you get a direct image that you cannot read yourself and it is very neutral.<\/p>\n

If I MAY guess, I think there are strong forces with not so noble motives playing on the noble motives that German tank crosses should not roll in Eastern Europe again \u2013 which is a noble motive.<\/p>\n

Then I actually understand the angle about whether Europe wants a militarily strong Germany, and many countries probably do not want that. But that is not quite the same as giving equipment to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

And I also understand that Poland never misses a chance to retaliate. I also have some understanding of how Poland acts here, it is almost the first time ever they are not occupied or at war and they would preferably avoid becoming the next country to have Russia over them after nearly 30 years of freedom, they like democracy like everyone else?<\/p>\n

There are two sides to every coin and one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter. I think Germany is on the right side but struggles with a difficult history AND a subversive activity from Russia that they have not managed to get rid of since the wall fell.<\/p>\n

In this context, I am incredibly happy and proud that Sweden has stuck its neck out and given from our best equipment from the shelf above the top where the really fine vintages are saved. For example, we could have donated Pbv302 or a company of unmodified CV90 and gotten away with it. But now we made a decision that makes a difference and we will be remembered for this in Europe. We were the pals who stepped up when it really mattered and in the future EU we will surely have a seat at the fine tables.<\/p>\n

As a Swede, one always complains and I think it is telling that the thread unanimously supported 12 Archers and 50 CV90 \u2013 it was not too little and it was not too much, a difficult tightrope to balance and they succeeded. Highest diplomacy, pragmatic thinking and realpolitik points on that decision.<\/p>\n

What is unfortunately more disappointing than Leo2 is that the free West did not show a united front against Russia. Putin is not stupid and understands that if you do not want to send offensive weapons, it does not matter that you have said you stand with Ukraine all the way and will do anything for them to win. He interprets this as a chance to still hold out when one of the biggest countries resists.<\/p>\n

If Ramstein had been completely united and 300 Leo2s had been sent, the Russians would have started thinking about peace in the near future, now it will probably take longer and Ukrainian children continue to be violated and prisoners castrated. But that is the reality everyone has to relate to.<\/p>\n

I am actually a bit surprised that the transcripts of Scholz\u2019s talks with Putin have not leaked yet. Considering his official positions that slipped all spring, he probably said some pretty serious things to Putin before and after the invasion and a couple of months forward if you would post them today when the world has understood the extent of the abuse. There must be a whole political class in Germany that wants to become chancellor, I think?<\/p>\n

Something quite strange flew by yesterday \u2013 the US urges Ukraine to wait with their offensive until they have received Western weapons, in the media. Unfortunately, I interpret that as a crack in the facade. Ukraine does not feel they get the support they should and will start an offensive with what they have and the US does not feel they manage to stop them and goes out with that in the media \u2013 sad because it probably means there is a lot of frustration in the Ukrainian command that is hard to hold back.<\/p>\n

I have also interpreted that the winter offensive was resourced and waiting for the Russians\u2019 high knees to play out but maybe they are waiting for at least Bradleys, it would take a few weeks to train on them and is ongoing?<\/p>\n

Instead of Leo2 we apparently got F-16s which is not completely bad (apparently no problems with the contracts there?)
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1616718266537283584?s=20&t=o8fgUnF938P8c2nfx7tlEQ<\/a><\/p>\n

There will probably also be a summary but hundreds of capable IFVs, right?
\n80 T80U from Cyprus were also on the table.<\/p>\n

Leo2 is not decisive, what is important is how you handle your weapon system and that you have enough of them. Sure, it would be desirable to avoid grilled Ukrainian crews that Soviet tanks cause but the absence of Leo2 does not change the outcome of the war in any way.<\/p>\n

Now I think one should be quite clear that Ukraine could send its 1 million infantry straight east and then they would lose 80% but retake the country. What the West is trying to do is to prevent a huge loss of soldiers so that the army is intact and can defend the enormous land border post-dead-Russian-in-the-hole so we avoid a round two or that the West has to go in with troops in Ukraine in the future.<\/p>\n

Then I think if the Germans sit and sulk through the whole day 2 at Ramstein there is good news in reserve. Don\u2019t really know what but some country will surprise and then everyone goes home happy. Macron has been surprisingly quiet\u2026<\/p>\n

Then I think at least Poland will send all their Leo2 to Ukraine whether the Germans approve or not and get Abrams and a pat on the shoulder from Biden. They probably start training for a reason, I think?<\/p>\n

A couple of notes about exciting equipment from others have also flown by but we\u2019ll see when the summary comes.
\nThere is also a chance that the Germans had a long night meeting and calmed down, we\u2019ll see. Rarely have they been grilled like this as a country in modern times?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:49<\/h2>\n

This one may have been up, I know Serbia was but posting at the risk of a five, Iran does not recognize Donbass and Crimea as Russian, yay \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1616727121132494848?s=20&t=DQevMAYDaqPYuZM8ta4DQA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:01<\/h2>\n

If now Turkey, Serbia and Iran have all recently gone out through formal government channels and made it clear that they as countries consider Crimea and Donbass to belong to Ukraine \u2013 which country supports Russia?<\/p>\n

China has also backed down and Rocket Man is irrelevant in this context.<\/p>\n

This is an enormously good indicator of where we are headed very soon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:33<\/h3>\n

Now I might be a bit speculative but I don’t think Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was an isolated event, it would be one step of many to establish a new world order.<\/p>\n

Russia has very clearly explained to us more than once what they had in mind.<\/p>\n

China was on the move with Taiwan.<\/p>\n

You can guess what vision Iran had in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

In Europe, it was countries like Serbia, Hungary, and Moldova that immediately recognized themselves as under Russian peace and then launched subversive activities at full throttle in many others. Divide everywhere.<\/p>\n

Now all the other countries that were part of this plan for evil world domination have officially abandoned Putin.<\/p>\n

The Russians now really have nothing left to fight for, they have a couple of months to negotiate their way out of Ukraine, that’s all.<\/p>\n

One of history’s biggest own goals and a pure joy to see it play out exactly as hoped.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:01<\/h2>\n

Oh dear, do you know who used exactly the same wording, Gudrun.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/jimmysecuk\/status\/1616742211839737857?s=46&t=x2sv2rifjUlbkTCO9XxTcg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:15<\/h2>\n

Then there was a Russian offensive on the southern front.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1616575199448555521?s=46&t=x2sv2rifjUlbkTCO9XxTcg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:07<\/h2>\n

I call bullshit from Scholz because the Italians have sent Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine which they bought from Germany and unless I have missed something, the Germans have not opposed it.<\/p>\n

Now maybe those of you who know contracts in the thread can show the difference between strv and art and those who know Germany might have some explanations but until then it is so that the Germans are letting Panzerhaubitze 2000 go to Ukraine but not Leo2. Contracts and all this are obviously excuses.<\/p>\n

Then all arguments fall apart and we have not gotten the truth from Scholz et al. They are playing politics while Ukraine dies for their freedom.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1616917275310686208?s=46&t=-k6qzbotP-Vo-Okklar9eg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

00:24<\/h2>\n

What is this?
\nRussians, right?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1616662678520356864?s=46&t=-k6qzbotP-Vo-Okklar9eg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:11 It feels very good that Sweden went in so hard with CV90 and Archer. 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