{"id":7467,"date":"2023-01-25T09:24:18","date_gmt":"2023-01-25T08:24:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-25-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:33:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:33:39","slug":"2023-01-25-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-25-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-25"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Previously, there were units from VDV, Guards, Spetznaz, and real Wagner in Bakhmut, Soledar, and Kreminna.
\nAt Kreminna, it is marine infantry and one of the better\/best DPR units, “Kaskad,” that is dying, and I have the impression that another naval brigade and other DPR elite units are also attacking nearby, right or wrong.<\/p>\n

At Orihiv\/Southern front, there are two brigades numerically, 8 battalion groups, and probably Guards since it was the 58CAA.
\nNorth of Kreminna, two Guards brigades are now attacking, so that would be 2+2 battalions max?
\n(I\u2019m careless and jump freely between brigade and regiment here, sorry if I embarrass myself).<\/p>\n

The Russians dedicate their best units in this offensive \u2013 that is indisputable. How much exactly we don\u2019t know, and there are more Guards than you can count; they were more generous with that honor than our beret seems to be.<\/p>\n

Many units were already “zeroed” before, those who can manage can replenish, but 1st Tank and a regiment in the 76th for example, and at Kherson there was probably another VDV regiment that was wiped out (many more but I don\u2019t have the energy to check, Spetznaz got support immediately as well and all guards around Kharkiv were unrecognizable).
\nA regiment\/brigade today is probably max two battalions and they were\/are already low on personnel, so it sounds more dramatic than it is when they are wiped out.<\/p>\n

What happens when a regiment is wiped out is that the possibility to rebuild it approaches zero. The Russians seem eager to keep the units, so they remove the remnants and then they are replenished. Then the whole battalion\/battalions in that regiment are newly mobilized and there are no experienced personnel left to transfer that, so welcome farmer army and even more incompetent high knees.
\nApparently, units are sometimes merged but only if they intend to continue fighting with them; otherwise, expertise is not transferred between units but replenished with new personnel, diluting the juice until it becomes water.
\nIt is an impossible task to try to guess the condition of the units, but I try to keep some track of VDV and now the 76th is starting to approach endangered species status, I think?<\/p>\n

Then there are a whole bunch of VDV regiments down by Bakhmut and Soledar, but it\u2019s not entirely clear how many have been deployed.<\/p>\n

It is reverse Darwinism and units with unpleasant names eventually become just this year\u2019s conscripts who have just learned to shoot.<\/p>\n

It is also indisputable that the Russians are very short on armor, indisputable. Their doctrine is absolutely not human wave attacks over open fields, and right now they are sending forward all the elite units. There is no reason at all to save armor and shrapnel protection, and we also see that in some attacks they deploy company-sized units with armored platoon support that are knocked out as expected \u2013 they go all in with the armor as well but they have nothing to go all in with.<\/p>\n

Here you have the great watershed of this war, Putin has run out of armor and Ukraine just got all the armor they point to. Since I have some family ties through the champagne-drinking secretary, the analogy with Patton ordering full speed now as the Ardennes offensive begins to fade is fitting.<\/p>\n

Not surprising that Russian psyops have been pushing Russian fives here to try to prevent top-shelf armor, most recently an Irish newspaper writes that Nazi German tanks are going to Ukraine. They are also starting to create an image of themselves as victims where it is almost unfair that the whole West sends weapons; they now call it being at war with the West. A stab-in-the-back legend is not far off, so everyone who believes in a new free Russia might want to reconsider. A hard eastern border is what applies going forward.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Ukraine only has one battalion per brigade on the active front and rests the others with mobile swimming pools, and information is transferred and the unit\u2019s communication and command structure is maintained. All Ukrainian brigades today are to be considered veteran\/elite units and territorial are competent infantry brigades. Try to count the volunteer battalions if you can, impossible. I guess there are +350,000 in maneuver brigades that can conduct all types of combat and now this army\u2019s battering ram is being equipped with Western armor. Add to that a bamboo forest of battalion-sized units that function in defense or as special units depending on who they are.<\/p>\n

Russia attacked with fewer numbers than this on February 24, right?<\/p>\n

A nice note yesterday from a thread hero that the administration in Luhansk has withdrawn to Russia. Do you think they would have done that if Ukraine was losing?
\nThe canary in the coal mine for northern Luhansk is now in the cage, completely red in the face and breaking it now.
\nThey know that VDV has failed in Kreminna and that as soon as Ukraine gets through the bottleneck, northern Luhansk will fall.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t forget that the 2nd Army Corps is expected to surrender if UA approaches the city of Luhansk.
\nAccording to Liveuamap, UA is well entrenched in the forest belt north and south of Kreminna and on the outskirts of the city. That matches Gregg \u2013 a matter of time before Russians are chased out of pits or basements.
\nIf they take the heights just east of the NS road, the defense is broken.<\/p>\n

Why leave Luhansk already now?
\nAs soon as Ukraine has knocked out the plug, they can “circle” Severodonetsk in the sky all the way down to north of the city of Luhansk. It is impossible to defend Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and a Ukrainian SOF\u2019s daydream in this terrain.
\nThe whole Wagner line becomes obsolete, Russian units in the NS line through Svatove and NS line through Starobilsk then stand NORTH of UA\u2019s front and must go around, perhaps outside UA\u2019s land border to get to Luhansk.
\nThere must be 40-50 BTGs north of that point?<\/p>\n

A rapid offensive in all directions when Kreminna breaks will create chaos and that is naturally why Luhansk officials take no chances and leave for Russia.
\nThat always raises morale among the remaining defenders and the 2nd Army Corps has their families in Luhansk so it\u2019s getting hot for them and naturally why they are believed to choose peace.
\nOr maybe the 2nd Army Corps is planning a little revolution and cooperation with Ukraine that the administration has gotten wind of, who knows \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

That DPR and LPR are moving away from Russia is probably just me pushing that idea but the probability should be sky-high.<\/p>\n

The trolling from Belarus is also way overdue; if it doesn\u2019t come, it will never happen, they could at least have thrown some hand grenades across the border, I don\u2019t quite get it.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m starting to wonder if we might see Western IFVs in combat here within a few weeks, there is an urgency that doesn\u2019t quite fit with a May offensive, I think. I also believe that a March offensive doesn\u2019t fit at all with the weather.
\nMBTs probably take a little longer, I guess, but even a company of IFVs and MBTs this winter would be signal politics that would make the Russian defense curl up into a ball in the pits and look for the number to the surrender line.<\/p>\n

Flew past from everyone’s despised Rybar that Ukraine tried to run armor on a barge across the Dnieper, probably completely false as he describes it. If you remember the discussion last fall about operation Badanka, the staff officer who came up with the brilliant move and the BTG griller Davyidiv Bridge has been given renewed confidence for a crossing of the Dnieper. The easiest way to create a threat in the rear of the Southern front is to cross the Dnieper and go on defense in suitable communities and await the Russian task force that must travel all the way from Mariupol or similar. First exposed to air and army aviation, then to remotely laid mines, then SOF, then indirect fire, and finally they get trapped in front of the defense. The Russians do not have unlimited reserves and if they have to allocate a couple of brigades, it makes a difference. If they do nothing, then it is a bridgehead that if it grows makes the entire Southern front obsolete \u2013 Davyidiv Bridge class on that when it comes.<\/p>\n

The Russians seem to have stalled along the entire Southern front but are probably taking some communities here and there that the Russian side declares war-deciding?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

At VUHLEDAR it is marine infantry and one of the better\/best DPR units, “Kaskad” that is dying and I have the impression that another naval brigade and other DPR elite units are attacking nearby, right or wrong.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Militarylands and Defmons, unfortunately the Russian side is increasingly inaccurate.<\/p>\n

Then I have one that has not been updated during the fall as a baseline.<\/p>\n

Desperately looking for more, do you have any.<\/p>\n

The last and most important are small bits of information that constantly fly by. Erik14 has made life easier because he focuses a lot on units now, a life saver.<\/p>\n

Then you have to put the puzzle together.<\/p>\n

I had even missed that the Russians moved 100,000 to the NS line through Svatove, but had heard that they emptied the training camps and moved to the front.<\/p>\n

Then a layer of probability on that.<\/p>\n

Trying not to listen to finished YouTube videos because you never know if they are accurate.<\/p>\n

A bit of a puzzle \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I know I may come across as resentful and petty here but there were ENORMOUS numbers of explanatory models for why we would never see Leo, Bradley, Abrams, CV90 or Archer in Ukraine.
\nIt was when we were preaching hardest in the thread after CV90 and then mildly criticizing Germany for its satanic sabotage, that group of real believers who were absolutely sure they would come \u2013 because the probability was 1 on that.<\/p>\n

These believers did not understand politics, defense, maintenance, and law and should leave the thinking to those who understood how the world worked, and go back to PS4 in their parents’ basement, to name a few.<\/p>\n

Now all those explanatory models were clearly completely wrong, maybe a reflection is needed on why one was completely wrong on such a central issue and I don\u2019t know what I wanted to say with this other than that there were pretty harsh words at the time because it seemed to be a sensitive issue, both our contribution and Germany\u2019s.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

For me, I am actually very satisfied with 50 CV90s, 12 Archers and possibly Leopard, but that was a bit vague.
\nNot too much and not too little \u2013 a downright damn good decision.<\/p>\n

Would be fun with Gripen but that is a completely different dancing lizard than the first mentioned so maybe not practical.
\nHowever, it would be fun over time if one could sell it as a complement to other NATO aircraft but then it must exist in sufficient quantity and have a future.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

So now it\u2019s positive again, do we have any ideas when Kreminna will fall?<\/p>\n

It can probably get quite messy there but if you keep the pressure up on the entire NS line through Svatove, the Russians have to start fortifying the NS line through Starobilsk, fortify Severodonetsk and finally the V\u00d6 line through Luhansk and try to hold out at Bilohrivka \u2013 then 100,000 men are not enough very far. That was reinforcements anyway so it\u2019s probably more but it sounds like a lot but it\u2019s not.<\/p>\n

We have for quite some time discussed SOF (all Western SOF) devastating effect in this war and right up there it is hunter terrain with cover everywhere. How do you defend a wide forest belt with many entrances that transitions into built-up areas when you never understand how to build defense.<\/p>\n

Those who are not visible have night combat equipment and silenced weapons and can basically switch to vampire fighting, up when it\u2019s dark. SBU is probably the absolute spearhead and presumably the elite of the army brigades have managed to learn infiltration and free warfare and are also participating?<\/p>\n

like a hornet\u2019s nest.<\/p>\n

A Russian in a pit is more prey than a threat, they have to sleep with both eyes open without blinking. And then during the day come the hated drones dropping wing grenades on everything that still moves.<\/p>\n

3D warfare we called it early and the better Ukraine becomes at it the worse the Russians become at countering it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I had a flip as CEO of a weapons manufacturer and that it would be positive PR to send so damn cool if it is sent so you get some orders when they have shot down a few hundred SU57s<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

They are completely shameless, don\u2019t remember if this is the scabby fox or zbapsarova?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1618280198612606976?s=46&t=x1nL-5ke4fgg7Y6_xbicpg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

They don\u2019t give up, now ammunition is the same as dirty bombs when it comes to Western weapons.<\/p>\n

Desperation and a lot of anxiety<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rwapodcast\/status\/1618265627336278016?s=46&t=x1nL-5ke4fgg7Y6_xbicpg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Ooops, blocked from that account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

In a country in Africa, the Chinese treated us to dinner in the VIP room, no stops with lobster boat and Beijing duck.
\nWe had that once a month so we would be nice to them, which we never were.
\nKaraoke when you see triple after 15 shot glasses Muay Thai, there is film and it hurts to watch.
\nThose were the times.
\nNot infrequently half of them were under the table and threw up the food before the evening was over, incredible.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Normal levels, it\u2019s like a neutral pulse bleed this.<\/p>\n

It is also elite units that are being drained now and not newly mobilized. The battalions were probably low on personnel so two battalions per day and since each brigade\/regiment only has two, that is one regiment gone per day in total.<\/p>\n

Then they seem to continue even after 90% losses and go towards zero so that thing about them not being able to be deployed in combat after heavy losses does not apply, everyone can cross a field regardless of trauma.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Perpetua summarizes well \u2013
\nA lot is happening<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1618442712214278145?s=46&t=ciQFjMEoBC8qbn-8ELmHrQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:44 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

The average is around 370 per day in total. 780 is very high. But looking at the past few weeks, it is normal. The seven-day average, for example, was 759 yesterday.<\/p>\n

They are burning through resources incredibly fast but are also managing to make slow progress. We will see how far they get before they run out.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:48 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Good summary!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:38 \u2013 Johan No.1 Previously, there were units from VDV, Guards, Spetznaz, and real Wagner in Bakhmut, Soledar, and Kreminna. 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