{"id":7469,"date":"2023-01-27T09:14:01","date_gmt":"2023-01-27T08:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-27-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:34:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:34:14","slug":"2023-01-27-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-27-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If Sweden donates Leo and\/or Gripen, then we have gone far beyond what we as a country would have needed to contribute to get full credit for our commitment. Honor to us in that case, and one can feel even prouder than now after Archer and CV90. I am still processing these completely new feelings and don\u2019t quite know if I can handle even strv122 and\/or Gripen yet. I know nothing is on the table yet, so my thoughts drift a bit here on Friday morning.<\/p>\n

Second thought \u2013 whatever the West does, we will do wrong with Russia. That is why Finland is buying everything that goes bang right now because they have had a cage fight with the now rather toothless bear before.
\nUkraine must be allowed to regain its sovereignty and then not abandon our eastern border because it\u2019s about international law, but we don\u2019t need to provoke anything. That\u2019s roughly the strategy I think I see right now?<\/p>\n

The stab-in-the-back legend and that they consider themselves to have had a war with the entire NATO unfortunately still applies. Russian TV showed that Sweden would be bombed with nuclear weapons and Gotland taken already two years ago long before we donated anything to Ukraine and we were still sneaking around in slippers so as not to disturb.
\nI now understand the mechanisms of the free West better than before and as some genius in the thread said, war does not pay off and trading is better \u2013 the West has realized that. We are late to start but when it gets going in the second half it is unstoppable, war economies can never match the free West.<\/p>\n

Third observation, the Russians apparently intend to mobilize in Crimea and probably also in LPR\/DPR (I guess\u2026), but we haven\u2019t heard anything from Russia yet. Since it is so late and we only hear from Crimea, I will now guess that mobilization will not happen in Russia in the sense that there won\u2019t be conscription and some half a million to be mobilized with arrests and violence. They are trying one more round with the occupied territories and some kind of voluntary under-the-table mobilization in Muscovite Russia. (1.2.3\u2026Erik14 posts tweet about full mobilization in Moscow).<\/p>\n

They are probably afraid that there will be unrest in Russia if they repeat the chaos of last autumn.
\nThere will be a mass surrender like no other as soon as conscripts meet Ukraine, so this is hardly worth calling mobilization.
\nIt will also accelerate an LPR and DPR rapprochement back to UA.<\/p>\n

I was sitting reading through the thread and Realist posted this from Dmitri, no proof at all but the question keeps coming up whether I have coverage for the elite units being wiped out and Dmitri and his sources are okay at least and support it https:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1618640599615430656?s=20&t=XDRLPoSDk2-RGrIH-Qrm3w<\/a><\/p>\n

There is now high intensity in offensive operations from the Russians between the Dnieper and north of Kreminna.
\nIt\u2019s quiet but full speed on UA at Kreminna.<\/p>\n

UA has carried out a couple of local counterattacks to retake lost communities in the old classic manner, they retreat and the last group out runs like crazy in the ditch and then when the Russians catch their breath and let the bait drum go around, then comes the counterattack and dead Russian, I don\u2019t know if they do counterattacks in daylight or darkness. Night fighting is very difficult but UA has also reached wizard level in everything here.<\/p>\n

Losses now are astronomical and Cesar made a summary yesterday, almost 3 times higher now than at the start of the special operation when they attacked on all fronts \u2013 take that in.<\/p>\n

The Russians have hit the wall twice, since spring\/early summer and last autumn, then they had to panic mobilize first everything they had left and then reluctant citizens on the street.<\/p>\n

They are heading into an even worse slump now but mobilization is conspicuously absent \u2013 significant and the canary in the coal mine is jumping on the flattened cage here.<\/p>\n

Dengamle got me thinking with his Operation Getflykt.
\nDuring the past year we have had highlights like \u2013 Kuwait Highway 2.0 a couple of times, Operation Badanka I have damn twitter proof for, we got Western weapons from the \u201ctop shelf,\u201d \u201cSwing Door\u201d is in full swing, Winter War 2.0 has started (but without film of frozen Russian yet). Maybe missed something?<\/p>\n

The chess move (Azov) is conspicuously absent (even though I think UA had prepared for it but the Russians preempted them with their sneaky and lousy sloppy January 6 offensive), Crossing of the Dnieper and Davydiv Brid 2.0 \u2013 what has infiltrated over the Dnieper so far doesn\u2019t count because I imagined BTG grillers rather than SOF on steroids.<\/p>\n

Darkest Donbass and the great flight from Crimea. Regarding Darkest Donbass it looks easier now than when I thought it would have to be taken by force \u2013 I thought it would take years. DPR and LPR will lay down arms completely voluntarily in a galaxy near us very soon.<\/p>\n

The bubbles have always been \u2013 rebellion in the army, Putin\u2019s demise and palace coup \u2013 there has been wild speculation. The big parade last spring made it clear that THEN the Ukraine war was an annoying fly. Now it has turned into a groggy grizzly rampaging in a very small room but the inertia is surprisingly large here still. They prefer group rape by Kadyrovites and sledgehammer executions over protesting and the oligarchs see their future going up in smoke with unshakable anxious calm.<\/p>\n

Something that has emerged since late autumn is negotiations and for me it is now at the top of the bubble list, it\u2019s the 1991 borders that apply \u2013 the signs are many. Before that negotiations was a bad word because it implied that UA would cede land so we hissed as soon as we heard that word.<\/p>\n

The other thing we then have to call Operation Getflykt (TM Dengamle) is that the army makes its own decision to abandon Ukraine. If negotiations and peace don\u2019t come first, it will definitely happen spontaneously.<\/p>\n

Something is needed that sends shockwaves, northern Luhansk is one and the Azov thrust the decisive one. Then Crimea will be emptied quite quickly in a tungsten rain and then the pressure on darkest Donbass will be so hard that first the 2nd and then the 3rd Army corps throw in the towel and choose the EU and then everything becomes unsustainable for the then quite endangered game animals left in their holes.<\/p>\n

The army has already left Izyum and Kherson without offering any offensive in return. Kiev and Kharkov were to be able to \u201cconsolidate\u201d and go on the offensive in a new exciting place so maybe that could be sold? After Izyum and Kherson there was really nothing like that and it was probably not sanctioned or reluctantly sanctioned by The Great Leader.<\/p>\n

The January 6 offensive doesn\u2019t count because it is something else \u2013 a last all elite on red in pure desperation because they don\u2019t have time.<\/p>\n

This is actually the best thing that has happened in this war so far; until January 6, it was logical for me that Putin benefited from a long low-intensity war and that they would try to hold the captured terrain during the winter. They would sacrifice newly mobilized troops and create an offensive capability until spring and try to wear down Ukraine with missiles and high knees from the newly mobilized. The spring offensive would be the classic Russian threat they always maintain. Then all the allies abandoned them and the West opened the barns \u2013 probably a long low-intensity war fell flat and they were forced to try to achieve a decisive outcome, any outcome, before negotiations?<\/p>\n

Having captured Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is only good if you can either hold them over time or negotiate something. Even a Russian understands today that they cannot hold them over time and then negotiation must reasonably be the alternative.<\/p>\n

Seeing Putin dangling at a gas station after this would of course be fun too.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 I think that the offensive, besides leading to enormous losses, may also to some extent contribute to Ukraine getting more support.
\nMany have been on the track that Ukraine must show that they can reclaim land so that the world does not get tired. I rather think now that since they have shown it a couple of times, it might be the opposite. When you see the Russians going on the offensive, it becomes urgent to make sure they are stopped.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

We\u2019ll see, first it was January 15 and now February \u2013 time is running out here.
\nYou\u2019re supposed to first kidnap the victims on the open street and take them to some training camp, it probably takes a few weeks before the victim is in place in a new uniform.<\/p>\n

Then the completely civilian victims need months of training just to become shooters who can shoot and handle close combat.<\/p>\n

And after that, you\u2019re supposed to send them to some front that takes 2 weeks before they are in place from when they stand waiting for the trucks?<\/p>\n

And then have them in place in an organized defense to face Ukraine\u2019s mechanized forces that will advance in May.
\nNow maybe they reinforce existing firing positions of course but\u2026<\/p>\n

It will be chaos, they will be sent too early, they will be dropped off in random forest with the order to hold it.
\nThat\u2019s how it looked for the September victims and this will be more of the same because UA will push.<\/p>\n

Hard to see that they will manage to get anything in place here that makes a difference with a mobilization start in February.<\/p>\n

They would have needed the entire winter for this.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

MRF,<\/p>\n

The 2nd and 3rd Army corps are 99.9% recruited from Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.
\nSurely some commanders are Russian, I don\u2019t know down to what level but the entire Russian army has a shortage of commanders today so if they had competent Russian commanders they should have been transferred.<\/p>\n

They have taken astronomical losses according to many experts in the field and it has been replenished with forcibly recruited. Someone once wrote that all +20,000 who were there at the start of the war are dead. Exaggeration of course, some are probably in hospitals without legs or eyes as well.<\/p>\n

When a war goes well you like to fight, when it goes badly you look for an out. You often told us last spring that Ukrainian morale was faltering if I remember correctly, what hell they suffered at the front etc.?<\/p>\n

Why do you think DPR and LPR are immune then?
\nForcibly recruited who lose a war.
\nRussia has after all lost +40% of the territory they once occupied and been forced to mobilize once and Ukraine is approaching Luhansk so to me it looks like a loss.<\/p>\n

Then you have a layer \u2013 treat them like crap because they are not Russians and have Kadyrov Chechens as a blocking battalion on everything else.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s do this \u2013 we park this for a couple of months until summer and if LPR or DPR switch sides or surrender you can run circles around me and call me an oracle.<\/p>\n

If the war is not over by summer and DPR and LPR are still fighting in true Russian spirit then I will change my name to Johan No.2 and sign under a new name.<\/p>\n

Deal?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

So \u2013 DPR or LPR can desert, lay down arms or switch sides, or all in a nice mix.
\nOracle is pronounced Oraaaakel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:24 \u2013 Johan No.1 If Sweden donates Leo and\/or Gripen, then we have gone far beyond what we as a 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