{"id":7471,"date":"2023-01-26T09:39:31","date_gmt":"2023-01-26T08:39:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-26-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:34:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:34:15","slug":"2023-01-26-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-01-26-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I see panic and desperation in all the Russians’ statements right now; they have no idea how to handle Western armor at all. The only thing glaringly absent is a classic countermeasure according to the escalation ladder. The countermeasure is very Russian and standard diplomacy. The only reasonable conclusion is that they have no full-fledged countermeasure.<\/p>\n

General mobilization was probably the only thing they have left now that all allies have abandoned them and they have run out of missiles and armor.<\/p>\n

We are not talking about nuclear weapons, but if Johan No.1 is to speculate, that button will never be pressed \u2013 it\u2019s not a button but an entire chain, and it is likely already broken.<\/p>\n

Terror bombing is (soon) over, and all-out war turned into infantry over potato fields, the best infantry too, so they ran quite fast and pulled their knees up to their chins before quietly dying in a rain of tungsten, air bursts, and a drizzle of medium calibers.<\/p>\n

Or, their attempt at a countermeasure, the only thing they had, was to commit all elite units in attacks everywhere and hope something breaks. It doesn\u2019t, and quite soon \u2013 weeks \u2013 Russian command will sum up the situation in the gunpowder smoke and see that their defensive capability has collapsed, they have not advanced at all, and Ukraine\u2019s offensive reserve is being equipped and can barely be held back. They know it\u2019s over. This is absolutely the Russians\u2019 version of the Ardennes offensive, a bit worse and very Russian.<\/p>\n

If they have sent 100,000 men as reinforcements to northern Luhansk (according to Greg), we understand how little information leaks from there \u2013 it is not low intensity in any way but a full winter offensive, and the Russians are having a lot of trouble holding the NS line through Svatove.<\/p>\n

Northern Luhansk will fall; it is just like Kherson, only a matter of time, though there will be no Operation Badanka. What surprises me is that they attach so much importance to northern Luhansk as they do, but maybe it hasn\u2019t reached a point where they have to choose yet. I suspect it has to do with the city of Luhansk and poor morale in the 2nd Army Corps because the supply lines through Svatove are at least cut, and one can bypass the UA national border on that NS railway\/road. Longer but safer. Northern Luhansk was not the most important hill to die on, I thought, but maybe one can still choose, as I said.<\/p>\n

On other fronts, one must probably wait out the Russian offensive first; I am of the opinion that this is one of the largest offensives we have seen since spring. Previously, they were increasingly compressed until finally it was only attacks against Lysychansk. Then it was towards the Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut line with the greatest focus on Bakhmut.
\nOn other fronts, it has been quiet or retreat.<\/p>\n

Now there are offensive operations between the Dnieper up to north of Kreminna, with a presumed near-future offensive all the way up to Kupiansk and some trolling from Belarus if they manage to get organized.
\nThey are burning INCOMPREHENSIBLE amounts of units right now, and it is all the elite units left that are being lost.<\/p>\n

When UA breaks through northern Luhansk, then we know it is nearing the end because the Russians have already sent down most of what they have in training camps and failed to hold back.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine, which they have, has held back their offensive reserve, they can then advance on another front as soon as the Russians run out of gas and then some area will fall this winter.<\/p>\n

The right Ukrainian move would be to cross the Dnieper soon \u2013 at the completely opposite end of the front, where the Russians have pulled back their units because they don\u2019t like HIMARS. There are quite a few river crossings right now where they are trying to eliminate the observation posts the Russians have on the eastern side of the Dnieper, which is a clear signal.<\/p>\n

Open a threat in the rear of the Southern front and set up the old classic BTG grill.<\/p>\n

What knocks out Western armor \u2013 right now the discussion is according to \u201cmanufacturer\u2019s recommendation\u201d and against the armor the Russians are assumed to have \u2013 full-fledged ERA, countermeasures, modern guidance, and a well-trained crew.<\/p>\n

Now the Russians are very short on armor to begin with, and all armor in defense will be knocked out with indirect fire before it even comes to shooting.
\nThen there are shoddy builds because the whole country has run an Afghan, and crews have a few months of training.<\/p>\n

For a mechanized brigade with the tank battalion in the lead, or as support if they are still stingy, the biggest threat is mines, the second is to stop, and the third is ground-based PV missiles they have kept hidden.<\/p>\n

RPGs seem to be handled by the vehicles, and the Russians don\u2019t seem skilled enough to aim at the tracks; they fire RPGs in the direction of the tank.<\/p>\n

If there is a duel tank vs. tank, it is because the task force is rushing to the breakthrough point, and they probably have enough for such an attack per breakthrough left, presumably?<\/p>\n

Then it is new crews in T90 and T80 that are not the latest modifications against Ukraine\u2019s Western armor, driven by veteran crews \u2013 UA comes out on top there as well.<\/p>\n

It is important to keep CAS and army aviation away with the LV screen and own advanced aircraft. I thought the LV screen would be enough, but no other strategist agrees because now air is on the way, so I guess I have to give in on that point. It was born in a time when air was politically sensitive, and I thought the LV screen was enough \u2013 which it has been so far, but of course there is no reason not to have air superiority if you can, and now the aircraft are coming in February.<\/p>\n

All types of Russian IFVs are uninteresting.<\/p>\n

How do you take fortification systems \u2013 indirect fire to remove as much armor as possible and work away the mines with the tools delivered.
\nThen you use direct fire from tanks for a while, and then it\u2019s forward with fragmentation protection behind armor or armor as support. I could imagine not wasting tanks recklessly and maybe letting companies rather than battalions lead.
\nTry to stop mechanical failures with CV90 bombardment over fortification systems \u2013 impossible.<\/p>\n

Drones that in real time guide air bursts from indirect fire when the Russians go into firing positions.
\nA cloud of small drones dropping hand grenades on everything that moves.
\n-With today\u2019s precision, there is absolutely no reason not to run that too until the enemy is very close and unloading.<\/p>\n

Breakthrough and then it\u2019s empty behind.<\/p>\n

I think we will see Kuwait Highway 2.0 (not historically accurate but it sounds so beautiful) rather than tank duels. If I were Russian, I would rather lie in a ditch than drive armor forward in the future. They are just big targets; there will probably be many abandoned functioning vehicles here.<\/p>\n

Cities are taken by infantry with tank support, mechanized brigades go deep and are flank-protected by infantry with close PV when they catch up if they are short on armor; until they have done that, the mechanized units flank-protect themselves, but over long distances, there is less and less left at the tip.<\/p>\n

The big threat is probably when the task force launches its counterattack; then it will be sudden and as powerful as the Russians can manage.<\/p>\n

It will probably be armor for 3-4 Western-equipped brigades. Then Soviet armor will be freed up for 3-4 brigades.
\nThey mix the best Soviet armor into 3-4 brigades and then top up a bunch of others with what is left over.
\nWe will have 6-8 top-equipped mechanized brigades for an unstoppable offensive on two front sectors simultaneously if UA wants.<\/p>\n

I have been so upset about Germany’s satanic sabotage, which turned into the disguised God Scholz giving everything at once, that I completely forgot my statements about when the war will end \u2013 I still stand by summer, everything points to that.<\/p>\n

The UA spring offensive will start in May at the latest (I am going by the weather here), and at least I think there are signs that the Russians are trying to negotiate their way out before then, and at least the 2nd Army Corps will probably have thrown in the towel and UA will be on the eastern side of the Dnieper before then.<\/p>\n

A 2-3 month offensive to retake the darkest Donbass and Crimea is plenty of time, and the Russians have not yet carried out their winter general mobilization by the end of January. There will not be a million-man army to oppose here.<\/p>\n

In May, unfortunately, the weather will probably be on the Russians’ side again, but since northern Luhansk has fallen, the supply is almost completely cut off because UA reaches the NS supply route outside its land border with SOF and long-range fire, and the smaller the area becomes, the higher the concentration of artillery, drones, elite units, and SOF, and the darkest Donbass becomes more of an isolated island with game than a defended fortress.<\/p>\n

They will abandon Crimea voluntarily when Ukraine starts pressing with all types of weapons.<\/p>\n

Or it might end faster than that because Ukraine reaches Azov in the process. Right now, the USA has asked Ukraine to wait with its offensive until the materiel is deployed and the lead time is 1-2 months, and then it will be wet and you have to wait until May \u2013 that’s how I reason, but anything can happen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A thought that struck me \u2013 to be able to retake Donbass and Crimea, a Russian special operation was needed exactly as it is playing out now.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine had tried on their own, they would have suffered astronomical losses and the Russians could have sent in reserves so they would not achieve any successes, and the West would not have supported them in the same way at all.<\/p>\n

Why Putin chose the special offensive probably only Putin knows, and apparently he went against the FSB and the oligarchs were unaware.<\/p>\n

There are those who say that the US panic retreat from Afghanistan and the electricity crisis were bait to lure Putin in so order could be restored, but that is far-fetched and after all, it was Putin who attacked, no one else.<\/p>\n

If they had chosen to stay and not attack, Ukraine would probably have been a very damaged country in 5-10 years even with Zelensky at the helm, and Russia could have continued as they did before February 24.<\/p>\n

A geopolitical atomic bomb and I hope we get the truth behind the motives for the special operation because this is world history we have just seen unfold in real time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I don’t have the energy to write it out every day, but we constantly get information about which units have been deployed and it is VDV, Guards, Spetznaz, naval infantry, real Wagner, and DPR elite units.<\/p>\n

Until January 6, they did not achieve successes anywhere with newly mobilized troops and the better units were held back. Ukraine is shaken now and that is because of the above units. We don’t know how large the numbers are, but the front is very long and it is an active front everywhere, and elite units are fighting everywhere.<\/p>\n

More a compilation of puzzle pieces than free fantasies \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:27 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I think that sounds reasonable. Of course, I don’t want to have to wait and would like to see Ukraine succeed with some unexpected smaller offensive already now, mostly to shake up the Russians and make them lose focus. But the best is probably to let them tire themselves out a bit longer while waiting for more materiel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

The Ukrainians have incredible patience, and the only crack I’ve seen is when the USA had to go out in the media and ask them to pause the next offensive (not northern Luhansk) until they got their Western armor.<\/p>\n

One feels bad every day because of this war\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes exactly, that string break is impossible to predict, but you can see the guitarist pulling on the string with both hands while standing on the guitar lying on the ground, so with all the knowledge one has about guitars and their strings, it seems reasonable that it will soon break. If it goes all the way to a full Ukrainian spring offensive, it will be over in summer; if something else fun happens, it will probably end before then. Everything ends with the 1991 borders and a Russian defeat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Robert \u2013 my guess for the winter before January 6 was exactly what you write, the Russians tried to hold their defensive lines.<\/p>\n

Then they saved the 150,000 in capable units that they are now using, topping up with newly mobilized + Belarus and starting a hell of a spring offensive.<\/p>\n

During the winter they would continue sacrificing newly mobilized troops to wear down Ukraine.<\/p>\n

On January 6, everything was turned upside down when the elite units left the barracks and ran across the fields.<\/p>\n

It’s madness on all levels and the explanation was probably that the West united and the Russians’ allies have left them \u2013 they simply don’t have the time and capacity to carry out the tactically smart plan and instead bet everything on red and failed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It was not an attempt to be conspiratorial and weave something together but more intended as a statement, I don’t believe in Qanon (anymore).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Good analogy \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This one was interesting, it has been raised sometimes in the thread that all of Poland’s Leos would be “stolen” and found in Ukraine, and they have done exactly that with the Mig-29. Those who presented these theories about smuggling of weapon systems in the thread were right, I didn’t really believe that.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1618540494153449473?s=20&t=jXxkEIwxAxmjlIFkQIB9Vw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:58 \u2013 Johan No.1 I see panic and desperation in all the Russians’ statements right now; they have no idea 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