{"id":7557,"date":"2023-02-05T09:27:16","date_gmt":"2023-02-05T08:27:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-02-05-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:21:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:21:06","slug":"2023-02-05-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-02-05-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-02-05"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

We were supposed to keep an eye out for cracks in the facade here during the winter\/spring and I have found three \u2013
\nThe VDV chief was fired, two marine infantry brigades refuse to die, and five regions including St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad want to separate from Russia according to the Salad link yesterday.<\/p>\n

That shaking on the lower deck probably feels pretty good, maybe not enough to make the country turn inward but a very good start that significant regions have soured.<\/p>\n

Flew by another that there are protests over increased costs \u2013 less purchasing power in some regions.<\/p>\n

There is also an ocean between the elite units storming towards their death over Donbass’s rolling potato fields and Putin’s stubborn unwillingness to see a single problem with his special operation, and solving all protests with dismissals on the spot. He wants more but the army cannot give more.<\/p>\n

I imagine the VDV chief was appreciated?
\nI will continue to keep an eye on whether more elite units refuse war, especially the VDV.<\/p>\n

Then I wonder if the Russian army can handle another HIMARS hit, they had incredible difficulty managing the last time it happened and when glide bombs like condors quietly float on the updrafts until they find their depot worker victim and dive straight into the ammunition depots it can get lively.<\/p>\n

In the darkest Donbass, I am pretty sure there are a couple of huge central depots that I usually write leave moon craters behind. When they are taken out, it is game over for ammunition handling for quite a few months ahead and the war is still over sometime this summer anyway.<\/p>\n

Then maybe the Russians have placed depots outside Ukraine’s national borders but there UA is clear that these are legitimate targets and besides the condors there are also Tochka-U and SOF \u2013 they will also blow up.<\/p>\n

It’s been a while but early autumn the entire Russian supply chain was disrupted by what, 5-8 HIMARS platforms?
\nThey have fewer trucks, the roads are impassable and they have, if not ammunition shortage, at least not unlimited ammunition. There are no depots left in Belarus and NK has probably sent everything they can spare now. If they get a good outcome on the glide bombs it can become impossible to replace for the Russians.<\/p>\n

The other thing that should be highlighted, which I have tried to show for a while now, is that there is a misconception (again), the Russians attack centered on Bakhmut and Soledar, “10 to 1” and that it can somehow be translated to the whole war. There are rumors about an “offensive with 500,000 men”.<\/p>\n

First of all, Ukraine now has a number of soldiers in maneuver brigades that is larger than the Russians’ after these 4 newly established divisions. These brigades are part of the command chain and can all participate in offensive operations.<\/p>\n

In addition, Ukraine has a veritable forest of volunteer battalions, territorial battalions and a lot more. The size of this is unclear but it is probably a couple of hundred thousand by now?<\/p>\n

They are suitable for defense because they lack the command chains and communication but will probably be subordinated to an army brigade and then given the task of defending a community.<\/p>\n

Today the Russians attack as if they have “10:1” when Ukraine has the larger number \u2013 it goes without saying how that will end.<\/p>\n

With the materiel now raining over Ukraine, they also have the technological advantage \u2013 soon also in tanks and after a while also in aircraft.<\/p>\n

On top of that, UA has exponentially increased its competence over the past year as Darwinism has applied to them, they fight with battalions and when they have taken losses they are pulled back and recover. They transfer experiences to new ones, the command chains are intact etc. They have set up world-class combat leadership and have wizard-level in everything now.<\/p>\n

Among the Russians, reverse Darwinism prevails, the best keep dying and there is no one who can train the new recruits. They run the battalions to 90% and then fill them up with completely new and inexperienced soldiers.
\nAlso in professionalism, experience, combat value, combat leadership, intelligence gathering and whatever I have missed, Ukraine is far ahead.<\/p>\n

I stand firm that this is the Ardennes offensive before negotiations rather than to win the war. The alternative is that Putin has completely lost it and that is even better in that case.<\/p>\n

You all saw the tweet yesterday that Putin went from talking about a “three-day operation” to “defending Russia” \u2013 that says quite a lot.<\/p>\n

Then Putin also said during the speech in Stalingrad that if the Leopards come then they must respond with something other than conventional weapons (nuclear weapons\u2026) \u2013 that signals that they are terrified of Western MBTs.<\/p>\n

I have long felt that MBTs were what the Russians were most worried about and have tried to highlight a forest of reasons for that, you remember the thought about China having an agreement with the West for example (which we have not a single proof of).<\/p>\n

If you develop that you can basically say that everyone who has been reluctant to send Western armor has done exactly what Putin wanted, stop them from reaching the battlefield. That is interesting I think because in the thread we concluded already in the spring that Western armor would turn the war and chanted daily about CV90.<\/p>\n

Yesterday we learned that China has supported\/is supporting Russia quite a bit, I had admittedly tricked myself into a couple of beers so “I was right” in capitals I blame that. As an exhausted parent of small children you get going on the first two beers and when you have had a third and some handfuls of chips you fall asleep in front of the Friday movie, I think I offered Bingbong a boat spot too so I seem to have been quite going\u2026 Have to remind that it has been discussed quite a lot with two stubbornly defended positions in the thread and that we now got an answer yesterday and can also put that to rest \u2013 China HAS supported Russia in the way we thought.<\/p>\n

I know we should be worried about a human wave offensive from the Russians now but it is February 5 and at least I see no signs at all of large-scale mobilization similar to what we saw in September \u2013 November. That is needed to carry out such an offensive.<\/p>\n

Right now the Russians are burning through their best units, 30% gone in January and it will probably be similar in February. Then the Russians have lost maybe 70% of their last usable offensive reserve and have nothing to resist with anymore.
\nThey are fewer in absolute numbers, they have worse technology and are not even close to Ukraine’s combined arms warfare \u2013 they have almost gone back to the battle plan for Tannenberg here.<\/p>\n

I seem to have drawn a bit too far-reaching conclusions yesterday because now the offensive east of the Oskil river seems to have started with attacks down towards Kupiansk and westward from Svatove. Down around Kreminna it was already initiated but now the whole front has lit up if I interpret the signals correctly.<\/p>\n

If there is anything to worry about, it is up there, it is chaotic and hard to defend, and the Russians can obviously achieve local superiority in numbers just as they have done in Bakhmut and Soledar. The difference is that there are not huge fields of fire and isolated communities turning into veritable fortresses. Bakhmut has a river running right through the city, so if you lose half, you still have half left.<\/p>\n

The last defense is along the Oskil river itself, where there are decent fields of fire and cover, so in the worst case, if it goes that far, UA will probably fall back there.<\/p>\n

The forests south of Kreminna will become a big Russian grave, I put my chip bag on that, but it is unfortunate that they have been pushed back out of the forest north of Kreminna now and have lost their foothold in the city itself.<\/p>\n

First, the Russians have to get past the Zherebets river, and a bit north it seems they have reached it if you look at where UA has defended. The likelihood of them reaching Lyman is very low. Russian bloggers are talking in terms of Lyman now, but they have run way ahead of themselves.<\/p>\n

If one were to guess, they will run out of gas before breaking through the Zherebets line. Then they will not get through the forest belt south of Kreminna.<\/p>\n

VDV is leading the way, which is excellent.<\/p>\n

We started jumping up and down on January 6 when we realized it was the elite units running across the fields. The whole month continued in the same positive spirit, and now it seems we will have a similar February. Putin has single-handedly shortened this war, which is incredibly good. The worst that could have happened was a wall of mobilized troops in defense and all capable units as a task force behind. It is at the breakthroughs that Ukraine is most vulnerable and suffers the greatest losses.<\/p>\n

It is also starting to become a very big difference in how the army experiences the war and what Putin demands of them \u2013 that is good.<\/p>\n

Saw that the first Leo2 deliveries are on a plane now, one felt bad when Ukraine was forced to die in glorified milk cartons and PTGB, but now they get splinter protection and armor, the best the West has \u2013 incredibly positive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The link about China\u2019s support to Russia was posted in the thread of course, all eyes on this giant.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Now I\u2019m having a hard time getting started after yesterday\u2019s binge on almost three beers (found a half-drunk one under the desk) but there is something about Wagner or DPR\/LPR that is not counted in that loss figure.<\/p>\n

Then 1:2 in dead:wounded is probably more accurate given all the HIMARS strikes and frostbite, so double the Russian number just like LW has done.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has always been on the defense except during its lightning offensives which directly generate a Russian tactical retreat \u2013 panicked flight and leaving all armor behind.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:08 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1
\nRUMINT: On MriyaReport a few days ago they talked about setting up 4 new brigades totaling up to 40,000 men. They had just started a three-month training. Those included were those who managed to get out from occupied areas before the Russians took control and they were volunteers, mainly police, “guards” etc. (who already had some form of basic training). They were supposed to be part of the regular army, e.g. reserves or rotated, but were dedicated to going to the front when it was time to retake the occupied areas. It was not clear if they had set that as a requirement to sign up as volunteers..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

That sounds reasonable, but I can\u2019t reconcile 4 brigades and 40,000 men though, isn\u2019t a Ukrainian brigade 4,000 and a Swedish one 6,000?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
11:36 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Agree, they themselves were a bit vague because they first said each brigade consisted of between 5-12,000 men, and then gave the total as “up to 40,000 soldiers.” It could be that they don\u2019t have exact details or that they are exaggerating to make it sound better. Then if these are some kind of “special brigades,” maybe they look different.<\/p>\n

I usually join and listen to MriyaReport somewhat randomly (perfect with wireless headphones when e.g. the Chief of Defense orders kitchen duty \ud83d\ude42). I therefore often miss the introduction of the speakers. The credibility varies quite a bit depending on who participates, and I rarely take the time to check it afterwards.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why it got the label “RUMINT”..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has this been up here?
\nEven the camels have gotten tired of the Russians, he\u2019s getting indescribably beaten.
\nCamels also have quite a strong bite, right?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jano14Toga\/status\/1621965247870287878?s=20&t=B7WEyKULfB1jvWwq2OZg1Q<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Saw four new videos from Bakhmut, in all of them smiling soldiers making some kind of victory sign.
\nThen it is the world\u2019s most dangerous place and they are outnumbered 10:1.<\/p>\n

Took a look at the city \u2013 waterway right through and dominant heights west of the city in places.
\nOne more month you can probably still drive vehicles across the fields so that road that is closed is probably not decisive?<\/p>\n

A very bad hill the Russians chose to die on.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Don\u2019t they reasonably have supplies in the city as well?<\/p>\n

It feels like they can push on for a while longer provided the Russians don\u2019t get a full-scale offensive and they have just brought in Azov and 17th Tank into the city that Girkin was sulking about.<\/p>\n

So in a worst-case scenario, one should be able to retreat just within the city in 2-3 steps?<\/p>\n

And then continue to hold dominant terrain west of the city if forced to leave the entire built-up area?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

There are about 6 “agencies” in Russia, e.g. GRU and FSB. Together with Putin\u2019s private army and Shoigu\u2019s, I counted them to about 500,000 men I think. They are needed for crowd control and positioning among the crooks.<\/p>\n

The army, on the other hand, I have gotten the impression they have not held back at all here. I thought they would save the VDV after Kherson but now they are almost used up. Most are probably in Ukraine or have been in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Very good story \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yeah ok it maybe wasn\u2019t top level, posted to show that the Russians seem to fail at everything but yes, very violent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here you see what the glide bombs reach, all Ukrainian territory except down in Crimea it seems?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_map\/status\/1620782468143124480?s=20&t=DQw6529mxeLr-7j8-NIwrw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Looks like Budanov is going to become defense minister.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/KyivIndependent\/status\/1622177578697261057?s=20&t=GXimIZoNp8FrhVNb4j0_Tw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:24 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

If it turns out they are as effective as GMLRS\/HIMARS, that will be really good. Now it is reported 92km for GMLRS, I thought 80 was the limit for them?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Wasn\u2019t the V marking often VDV?
\nWith some luck they will throw them in at the southern front now as well.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiannews24\/status\/1621946897329000450?s=46&t=M_as9OpsRdyo5GglCGz-lA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:59 \u2013 Johan No.1 We were supposed to keep an eye out for cracks in the facade here during the 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