{"id":7565,"date":"2023-02-07T09:13:33","date_gmt":"2023-02-07T08:13:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-02-07-3\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:22:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:22:33","slug":"2023-02-07-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-02-07-3\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-02-07"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It’s more fun here now than in the economic threads where things got heated \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Girkin has completely collapsed here, he believes this Russian offensive will end worse than when they had to abandon Kiev.<\/p>\n

When we first see images of +30 destroyed Russian mechanized vehicles and then get 1030 in losses, it’s hard to believe otherwise. That feels like an entire brigade gone up in smoke, they supposedly had two battalions per brigade, right?<\/p>\n

Numbers that are hard to comprehend, there were rumors that the VDV would attack after the naval infantry but it was impossible to tell from the pictures whether it was BMD or BMP.<\/p>\n

What is already set in stone is that the Russians are quickly exhausting their last capable units and have not started a larger sweeping mobilization. Meanwhile, Ukraine is about to significantly boost its offensive capacity and has set up 14 new brigades as the NG finishes theirs. Of course, this could change if the Russians begin mobilizing, but time is running out, today is February 7th\u2026<\/p>\n

The Russians are pressing hard in the forests south of Kreminna and it is the VDV that disappears without a trace there.<\/p>\n

The guy with the masculine dialect that Fram i Natten always posts has told us how UA is infiltrating sabotage groups all over northern Luhansk now, which naturally is true. We have been quite focused on the forests around Kreminna but now that the offensive is kicking off up there, there are ambushes and mines as well.<\/p>\n

They are trying to identify and cut off supply and also hinder the advance up in northern Luhansk \u2013 that\u2019s probably A1 in the rangers\u2019 little black?<\/p>\n

If we try for a second to put ourselves in the Russian command for northern Luhansk here, apparently they have 125,000 men for this offensive and that means enormous amounts of fuel, ammunition, and food must be delivered every day.<\/p>\n

They had what, 190,000 for the whole war on February 24th but now they have squeezed 125,000 into a much smaller geographical area. There are only a few roads and the NS road through Svatove is probably impassable so they have 4-5 roads total to choose from for their logistics. Not exactly hard for the reconnaissance chief to figure out where to send groups to carry out ambushes, or the artillery chief where his remotely laid mines should go, or the drone chief, or the ground attack chief\u2026<\/p>\n

The number of supply vehicles must be lower today than at the start of the offensive and since they are active on all fronts, the number of vehicles they have for northern Luhansk must be quite limited.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s below freezing at night and wet during the day, the worst weather for a soldier. Units are out of their billets and at various stages moving towards UFA and then finally into combat contact.<\/p>\n

Ukraine evidently has extremely fierce and numerous infiltrating units swarming around like a swarm of hornets and they also have drones, remotely laid mines, and long-range weapons they can guide with communication.<\/p>\n

The smart move in northern Luhansk is to disrupt supply as much as possible with infiltrated units, delay everything that needs to advance with mining and ambushes, and then carry out ambushes at night against all frontline units they can reach to force them not to have heat sources. This creates a so-called “toxic bubble” for these 125,000 to thrive in and they will start decimating themselves entirely on their own.<\/p>\n

This has every chance of ending in frozen Russians in trenches, not like Winter War 2.0 because that gives completely wrong associations as I\u2019ve learned, but like\u2026 Suomussalmi 2.0.<\/p>\n

If you are soaking wet, it drops to -5 at night and you can\u2019t light any heat source, it\u2019s quick to freeze to death. Videos will probably come later when Ukraine overruns the positions showing how they sit in the trench completely frozen solid.<\/p>\n

Of course, every vehicle runs its engine until the famous fuel runs out and then they just stand there useless. Aiming devices (yes, you can see through the sight but not IR) and turret movement don\u2019t work when the fuel is gone and the battery is dead.<\/p>\n

Of course, the artillery fires away all the ammunition and then they sit twiddling their thumbs until they get overrun.<\/p>\n

And the obligatory mash can that makes the rounds contributes to frostbite.<\/p>\n

Northern Luhansk will become a showcase of Ukrainian defense which, with a bit of luck, will turn into a lightning offensive before the ground stops bearing but that probably depends a lot on how terribly the Russians manage themselves here. If they go all in again, it can go really fast.<\/p>\n

If they start learning and occupy the NS defense line through Svatove with mobilized troops and then the NS line through Starobilsk while their offensive is ongoing, UA still has two defensive lines to get through.<\/p>\n

If the Russians have been sniffing around Dvorchina, they are interested in reaching the western side of the Oskil river already there and we can hope UA has taken its flank defense seriously here. You remember they were supposed to defend all liberated border against Russia with territorial units who mined and prepared defenses during the quiet period.<\/p>\n

As said, it will get very chaotic a couple of times up in northern Luhansk but we can probably be quite confident that the Russians will carry out this offensive in the worst possible way for themselves. They are really their own worst enemy and will cause more damage among their own than Ukraine does.<\/p>\n

The whip should be cracking continuously now, the anniversary is coming, the intensity of attacks is high, they are pushing forward large amounts of troops. This is incredibly positive because the only thing they are not planning for is what to do when they have run out of everything and UA has its armor and is advancing.<\/p>\n

They might gamble that the mud season will stop everything and they can keep momentum until then but it could be frozen longer, it might not rain and it could get dry earlier. So far the weather has absolutely hated Putin and it\u2019s a La Nina year so a bit of positive thinking there too can be gambled on.<\/p>\n

There is now a brigade\/regiment commander who had to go to his division\/army corps commander and report that his entire brigade was wiped out yesterday. The army corps commander has to go to the army commander\/front command and report that the attack completely failed. They quickly run into a room, close the door and after some loud discussion come out and tell the army corps commander that he has to send forward the next round of brigades or face dismissal.<\/p>\n

Somewhere it will break pretty soon if it goes on like this. My money is still on the VDV getting fed up when they start realizing this is guaranteed death.<\/p>\n

Stuff like this also spreads like wildfire and the blocking battalions are quite few in the context so if an army corps goes into hedgehog mode they can\u2019t do much.<\/p>\n

Then I think that Putin’s demands on the army and what they can achieve right now are an ocean apart. I find it hard to believe that the army is the one who will take Putin down, and I don’t know what their relationship looks like with those who can, but they can’t be little rays of sunshine right now at their staff meetings.<\/p>\n

GeneralSVR, who is a source I can’t even begin to evaluate, believes that the FSB government candidate and Putin have a rather frosty relationship right now. If anyone can take him down, it would probably be the FSB?<\/p>\n

The danger is definitely not over yet, and even though the attempt at Offensive No. 2 at Vuhledar ended in more than the usual chaos, they had 8 BTGs in total for this second attempt and about 30,000 in total in the rear, as we read the other day \u2013 but they are burning through this offensive reserve at record speed now.<\/p>\n

When they lost these new 8 BTGs, I was of the opinion that they had burned through 40% of their qualified reserves behind the southern front. But of course, it depends on what they attack with, and it would be interesting to find out who went and died yesterday.<\/p>\n

A bit too early with Putin and moving images, and above all, it is almost a truth that he has body doubles?
\nI read that from all sorts of credible sources nowadays, otherwise it’s something you put in the tin foil hat category until you have proof.<\/p>\n

However, it’s time to raise the question \u2013 large-scale missile attack. They would need less than two weeks between attacks, 11-12 days it was, and the last one came sometime after January 16, if I remember correctly.<\/p>\n

When you take losses like these at the front, you should definitely follow up with as many missiles as you have capacity for.
\nSome signal that they are starting to run out, except for the S300?<\/p>\n

That they are not raining missiles over Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Soledar is completely incomprehensible to me. If they had launched 100 missiles in a geographically limited area, they would have gotten results even with the dispersion because the missiles are lousy.<\/p>\n

My positivity meter is always on red, but today was an extra positive day, one must admit, Ukraine is definitely showing strength everywhere.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

What I got was that 80,000 of the newly mobilized had conscription in their background and were sent directly to fighting units.<\/p>\n

Then there was a group that got a month’s training before it was their turn, and the last group was in training in January.<\/p>\n

In January, some sources said that the training camps were emptied and then 100,000 appeared near northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

I thought that what was left in the training camps was 100,000 \u2013 150,000.<\/p>\n

Mobilizing 300,000 took until late November sometime, right?<\/p>\n

So yes, there are some beyond this, under 100,000 more I think.<\/p>\n

Losses of mobilized?<\/p>\n

Until January 6, it was mostly mobilized and Wagner who died.
\nTheir 50,000 should probably be counted as a plus too.<\/p>\n

Something like that but guessing wildly \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Danke<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Take a look at this\u2026<\/p>\n

According to rybar, it’s not 14 new brigades but 30.<\/p>\n

Lack of soldiers and equipment, not so much.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rybar_en\/status\/1622677169804640257?s=46&t=PJ-eLHjj3soyCSkeCTGOqA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Isn’t this our old LV piece?
\nI’ve sat in one and spun it around but never fired it, good against drones one might guess.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1622916004035567616?s=46&t=PJ-eLHjj3soyCSkeCTGOqA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Hopefully the information is correct!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It was not VDV yesterday in Vuhledar<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1622964217677488129?s=46&t=4lH1eQzTy6sKdkZleUmnQw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:11 \u2013 Johan No.1 It’s more fun here now than in the economic threads where things got heated \ud83d\ude00 Girkin 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