{"id":7571,"date":"2023-02-09T09:19:40","date_gmt":"2023-02-09T08:19:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-02-09-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:23:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:23:49","slug":"2023-02-09-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-02-09-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-02-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday was a sloppy post that should be disregarded, correction and improvement. The Thai guy whose posts I steal and run through Google Translate didn’t write anything, so I tried my own analysis but now he’s alert again.<\/p>\n

I’ve had it confirmed by one of the sources we value highly that it wasn’t VDV who died in Vuhledar the other day but army brigades. (completely crazy that Budanov replies to emails\u2026)<\/p>\n

The second wave of 8 BTGs was sent up towards the southern front, a couple of them were probably also deployed at Vuhledar?<\/p>\n

Then KOS had a very low number of combat units which I cannot agree with at all. There are a couple of official figures we can rely on: the size of the Army, NG and territorial units at the start of the war, losses, Ukrainian Forbes, and the number mobilized in total defense. I do count territorial brigades now as part of the army as competent infantry along with NG, maybe he only counts the army? We also know they have set up 14 new brigades, Rybar’s 30 is just Rybar so far and should be parked pending confirmation. My reasonable assumption is also that the rest of the army is resourced if they can set up 14 new brigades and since they have a battalion\/brigade on the active front, no army brigade is at risk of going to zero, possibly one of its battalions.<\/p>\n

According to earlier discussion, it will get messy in northern Luhansk, I base that on the terrain and the fact that they have pushed in +100,000 men there in a relatively small geographic area. Then the fact that they can attack both from the North and East doesn’t exactly help. The Russian offensive has definitely not played out there yet.<\/p>\n

As we pondered the other day, there will probably be local counteroffensives and it is beginning to crystallize that there will be at least one at Bakhmut and certainly also at Soledar before they get too far. Right now the Russians have advanced so far at Bakhmut that they either push back or retreat a bit further.<\/p>\n

-want to be suuuuper-clear that UA still controls the dominant terrain West of Bakhmut so leaving the city itself means absolutely nothing. They will just sit and throw stones at the Russians going forward.<\/p>\n

At the southern front, it is almost immobile so far, I think, Ukraine is in the same firing positions as before the Russians went and lost a lot of brigades there and they have even consolidated their positions further around Vuhledar after the big brigade loss day which probably wasn’t very hard.<\/p>\n

It seems the “second wave” at the southern front is well on its way to being used up but we know from before that they have “30,000 in Mariupol” so there is definitely more to draw from. Per “wave” they seem to have deployed 3,000-5,000 men at the southern front depending on BTG numbers and it takes two weeks to consume.<\/p>\n

When I swirl around in the swamp it feels a bit early for anything Ukrainian yet, it hasn’t played out on all fronts so they can’t regain the initiative. What would be fun is if Ukraine managed to make progress in Bakhmut or Soledar in some local counteroffensive and turn the whole Russian battle plan upside down since they don’t have the numbers there.<\/p>\n

What I do get a distinct feeling of is that Ukraine is “biding its time”. They defend at a disadvantage, every time we read “10:1 at Bakhmut, Soledar, Vuhledar” etc. Since the numbers are equal, the other 9 are just eating hot dogs in the rear. They do weapon maintenance and training and refill the platoons.<\/p>\n

The Russians on the other hand are betting everything on red in our time’s Ardennes offensive and fail and have reached a new level of the word failure.<\/p>\n

February feels like it will be the month with a very high attrition rate for the Russian side in northern Luhansk. Losses aside, here they will soon have the combat value of a hungry and sluggish preschool class \u2013 wet, cold and poor maintenance guarantee us that. Then it is 125,000 men out of 326,000 who are not doing so well anymore (I know I exaggerate and not everyone is in a hole, some are in prepared defense\u2026).<\/p>\n

At Soledar and Bakhmut the Russian numbers are not a threat, there are no 125,000 men there, but they attack over a small area which Ukraine defends with the minimum so it looks threatening.
\nIf Ukraine gathered forces there they could achieve quite a lot quite quickly but there is a ceasefire line a bit east that they would crash straight into, one can guess huge minefields?
\nIt is probably not the area you want to dedicate your offensive reserve to. It is also the point closest to good access to artillery ammunition and airbases for the Russians so they would get everything thrown at them if they went deep I think. (Famous last words..)<\/p>\n

At the southern front the Russians are supposed to attack clearly first but burning through maybe 80% of offensive reserves before the end of February is almost an open goal for what has seemed completely impossible throughout the war \u2013 the Azov thrust (TM someone in the thread, don’t remember who).<\/p>\n

Now it is February 9 and we have yet to see evidence of any type of September-style Russian mobilization. It took 3 months of hunting to get together according to what they said 300,000, rumor is more. I don’t remember the exact date the mobilization ended but sometime later in November?<\/p>\n

What I start to wonder is if the elite otherwise might be slowing this down?
\nIf a mobilization goes wrong it won’t be a palace coup but a popular revolution. Then it is enough to be an oligarch or in the Duma to be hanged on a lamppost. It may be that there are strong forces trying to slow this down out of pure self-preservation?<\/p>\n

Or it will come, but the logical thing would have been to start it already in January and the Russian command knows that very well. They can only sit there with the abacus where all the beads are soon with the blue-yellow. They would need at least 500,000 men, preferably a million, who went on defense. To be able to go on defense they first need to be trained and then build their defenses. Only with numbers could they slow Ukraine and hope to win in a war of attrition. Now today they don’t have those numbers to begin with and also consume 50,000\/month.<\/p>\n

It looks incredibly bad for the Russian side now, the only thing that has really happened is that Ukraine withdrew to the hills West of Soledar and has begun a tactical retreat in three steps in Bakhmut. No 1-0 to the Russian circus there. And to achieve this they have lost 50,000 men and are starting February even worse.<\/p>\n

Up in northern Luhansk where they have the numbers the season is on Ukraine’s side and I don’t think the Russian command has read the book about the Winter War.<\/p>\n

However, it seems Ukraine has done so and taken notes because now the hunter fighting is rolling out over the freezing Russian soldiers in their holes in all its devastating power. <\/p>\n

If I sum up all the information we get, then I get the feeling that the Russian offensive will not deliver much more than this, they have been going since January 6 and achieved absolutely nothing. However, it should not be over for the simple reason that we have the anniversary and Putin left to relate to, and both are strong incentives to continue sacrificing brigades like peanuts.<\/p>\n

If calm were to settle over the fronts, then we have a shift and that means the army has hit the brakes on its own initiative. That would be the most significant thing in the whole war and by the end of next week we will know if it is heading that way or not, because then \u201cwave 3\u201d on the southern front should be in full swing and northern Luhansk really messy.<\/p>\n

Everyone has now learned the elevation differences at Bakhmut and Soledar and understands that Ukraine still holds all the dominating terrain. Up in northern Luhansk it is supposed to play out but I think the season will do its part together with the whole West\u2019s SOF. Since the whole front has lit up, it will probably go quite fast to burn through 125,000 men if they go all in on red.<\/p>\n

For me, a summer victory looks increasingly likely and the summer is long, in Ukraine it is late summer all the way to September, someone said yesterday so I am hedging my bets \ud83d\ude00
\nWe probably jumped on Paasiikivi a few months ago and changed from \u201cthe year 2023\u201d until now in summer and I am still confident in that.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is not faltering anywhere but they were shaken on January 6 when all capable units pushed forward. All the videos of Russians we see now are a trash-hank army.<\/p>\n

We are fooled into interpreting it as strength that Russian BTGs are going to zero, we keep getting the truth but it is still perceived as a threat and everyone gets worried. Right now it is tactical retreats with enormous Russian losses.<\/p>\n

Imagine if we got confirmed that Ukraine had lost 50,000 men during January and a bunch of whole brigades wiped out \u2013 the pessimists would have taken over the thread by force and deregistered us boat owners.<\/p>\n

Russia obviously cannot handle this for many more months but there is one card left to play \u2013 general mobilization. If it comes we will evaluate but I think it is already too late and I think there is a reason we do not see it, fear of popular revolution.<\/p>\n

The sooner this ends the better and that Vladimir Churchill is now making rounds in the high society is positive. Everyone seems to want to meet him except Scholz who sits and sulks and thinks the competition to send the most to Ukraine is \u201cuncool\u201d. <\/p>\n

Scholz really needs a new PR staff because he has an almost unique ability to ruin everything. Now it was hundreds of Leo1 and the first Leopard in Ukraine that he managed to destroy the positive spin on for Germany. <\/p>\n

These are private initiatives and surely many in the government who have worked enormously hard to try to deliver various packages to Ukraine and Scholz keeps crashing these PR wins that Germany so desperately needs through various lousy statements. Macron has kept up with the course change and gives Zelensky medals instead. <\/p>\n

The fact is that the country Germany will see its position in the EU undermined going forward and they only have about half a year left to act here if they want to avoid that. We basically already know that Scholz will start discussing dialogue with Russia during the spring and then when the Russians are about to lose, that we should proceed carefully and finally that all sanctions shall be lifted. The best for Germany would probably be to clean up in politics quite immediately and send the largest weapons package since lend-lease, and on top of that go to Ukraine and apologize to Zelensky with a huge economic reconstruction package. I have quite a lot of sympathy for the country Germany, considerably less for the \u00c5len.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

When I write \u201cnot deliver more than this\u201d in terms of the Russian offensive I mean successes. They will probably continue trying.<\/p>\n

I have been a bit worried when the thread was most in dissolution I tried to counteract that by promising to deregister myself from the forum if the Russians would attack with 500,000 men around the anniversary (or whenever it was).<\/p>\n

Right now it seems like I get to stay which I think is fun.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The guy with the male dialect on YouTube, where does he get his elevation maps from that he flips between?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

One more point, when the ground becomes mud up in northern Luhansk it also gets wet and no maintenance \u2013 even worse combat value.<\/p>\n

And a constantly buzzing swarm of hornets of SOF.<\/p>\n

It is a lousy terrain they have chosen to squeeze 125,000 men into\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:40 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100 Nice!<\/p>\n

Regarding the mobilization that has not happened.
\nKonstantin (InsideRussia) talked about that they are about to adopt a new law (everything ready except Putin\u2019s signature). It will make it possible for Russia to use conscripts as \u201cpeacekeeping forces abroad\u201d. In addition, the law will apply retroactively. Russia\u2019s conscripts are called up in spring and autumn. If Konstantin is right and they apply that law they can free up around 130,000 men from those who were drafted in August. They will be fairly well trained.<\/p>\n

This would be a way for Putin to free up soldiers without having to declare war or go out with another mobilization (or that the mobilization becomes more limited).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

MickeU \u2013
\nIn Bakhmut, Soledar, Vuhledar and so on they have huge fields, high dominating hills and a geographically limited town.
\nThey can build a veritable fortress and the Russians have to cross open fields and end up stuck in the minefields.<\/p>\n

Up in northern Luhansk they came relatively recently and have worked their way eastward. The terrain is town-field-forest-town except south of Kreminna where it is one big forest.<\/p>\n

The Russians have reportedly squeezed 125,000 into this area, that is a fairly high number and the front is not so long.<\/p>\n

They can attack straight from the north and go south along the Oskil river and drive wedges anywhere along the NS line that goes through Svatove.<\/p>\n

If there is a bigger offensive UA will have to fall back to the Oskil river which is a defensive line that can be held.<\/p>\n

But\u2026
\nAs soon as the Russians become immobile it will backfire on them, few roads and good terrain for Ukraine to infiltrate so then Suomosalmi 2.0 will happen instead.<\/p>\n

Momentum \u2013 slow for UA.
\nPassivity and standstill \u2013 RU last fight in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Interesting because then they again avoid the sensitive issue of mobilization but can free up some more, 2.5 months of war more or something?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

The risk is probably that they might get them in place relatively quickly. If they join in a few weeks before the current offensive has ebbed out, 130,000 (minus Moscow and St. Petersburg) is still a considerable addition. <\/p>\n

If they were planning a \u201cmajor offensive\u201d later on it is not enough at all if they do not also mobilize and then it is earliest in three months.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

13:51 and the report of a Russian all-out war, don\u2019t we think Gregg and the Twitter gods would have picked this up?
\nOr all the OSINT that has commercial satellite images?<\/p>\n

In northern Luhansk we know there are 125,000 and presumably quite a lot of armor and everyone is waiting for a fairly intense offensive and it will get chaotic there.<\/p>\n

To attack with hundreds of thousands (200,000 \u2013 300,000) it would reasonably have to be the same at Donbass and the Southern front?<\/p>\n

But behind the southern front there is no buildup of 100,000 soldiers and if they are to attack within 10 days they must reasonably be on their way forward to assembly points and slowly start grouping in ufa?<\/p>\n

We have heard about the buildup in northern Luhansk for weeks now, nothing at Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk and 30,000 behind the southern front.<\/p>\n

However, I think the numbers are roughly what the Russians have left in total of each weapon type, at least MBT and IFV.
\nThe number in Ukraine is supposed to be 326,000 so it becomes \u201chundreds of thousands\u201d.<\/p>\n

Is the idea then that the entire Russian army should advance simultaneously on 2-3 fronts, if it works it works, a few hours of euphoria and then straight into the minefields?<\/p>\n

First of all, the combat value is already declining but if this is true then it\u2019s just to thank and accept for Ukraine?<\/p>\n

Some Ukrainian positions will be overrun and they will have to fall back to secondary defense lines but then the Russian military in Ukraine is spent in one huge roll of the dice, after something like that there is nothing left.<\/p>\n

How they will manage this logistically when they couldn\u2019t get 15,000 men to move in the same direction at the start of the war remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

This sounds quite Russian and very desperate, and it\u2019s lucky it\u2019s not 500,000 men anymore so I get to keep my name on the blog, but the logistics of an offensive with these numbers should not be underestimated so IF the rumor is true it will be a display of chaos and death that goes straight into the history books.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

They have actually abandoned this tactic because too many died and started with artillery and small combat groups.
\nOf course, that also went straight into the mud, so then they have to go back to something they already know doesn\u2019t work?<\/p>\n

If you want to be a bit conspiratorial maybe there is a reason then why Ukraine hasn\u2019t used the 2,500 suicide drones, all HIMARS ammunition or all 155mm guided ammunition?<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see on February 19.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:57 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Nice that you come in with a positive analysis!
\nI was about to stand up but sit back calmly in the boat.<\/p>\n

(Now I suspect, though, that it might be psyops from Ukraine but you never know.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If I break down what we know, 326,000 in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

100,000 in new units into northern Luhansk. Are they on top of these 326,000 or is it included?<\/p>\n

I am inclined to believe it is a total number.<\/p>\n

125,000 in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

+50,000 in Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk<\/p>\n

+50,000 behind the southern front.<\/p>\n

So there are only +100,000 left for an offensive but we are misled by the Ukrainian source to believe that besides everything else this huge blow will come on February 19 as he sums up.<\/p>\n

He has basically just summed up everything the Russians have left and they are already fighting on all active fronts now and taking heavy losses every day.<\/p>\n

The intensity will increase but there will not be 1,800 tanks rolling across the fields westward followed by 326,000 screaming cooks and depot workers.<\/p>\n

We must also remember that in that total number, whether it is 326,000 or 426,000, everything is included, it\u2019s not the tip that is that big. All depot workers, railway, guards, cooks, maintenance, artillery, etc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

But it is the tip that dies all the time in their attacks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Of 1,800 tanks and 3,650 IFVs, how many are standing with technical faults in the rear?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Because quite a few of them are already battle-weary and then you have all in the rear who will not attack.<\/p>\n

Are they going to completely abandon flank protection at the Dnieper?<\/p>\n

Etc.<\/p>\n

We park this until February 19.<\/p>\n

Then the offensive is already underway with 2,000 combat-ready per day but I think we are led to believe that there will be a huge escalation on February 19 exactly, then 1,800 tanks and 3,950 IFVs will roll across the fields westward.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Did Ulf Kristersson really say the following quote \u2013 \u2013 \u201cHe wants more of everything. So I recognized that list quite well.\u201d<\/p>\n

I think Sweden has done a lot but IF our Ulf happened to say that then he has almost done a Scholz because that statement is a bit condescending and Ukraine is taking the whole hit right now.<\/p>\n

Then I actually want to point out that a minister has previously said that Ukraine got everything on their list\u2026<\/p>\n

A message to the government, don\u2019t do a Scholz now and PR crash our huge effort here, that would be very unfortunate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Did you see this, Orban was sitting flipping through papers when Zelensky was touring the EU.
\nOrban is really bad for Hungary, they should make a deal with that scoundrel immediately.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1623752497570451458?s=20&t=-RK7FI6PHSrenyB86itsrQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

What happened here, Germany didn\u2019t let Holland buy out their leased Leopards to send to UA.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1623730863056748544?s=20&t=-RK7FI6PHSrenyB86itsrQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

00:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Very good thread about Vuhledar.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/Tatarigami_UA\/status\/1623720127324725249?s=20&t=hsVVl_adjaQhVLJwTRVOSg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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