{"id":7579,"date":"2023-02-14T10:09:19","date_gmt":"2023-02-14T09:09:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-02-14-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:25:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:25:10","slug":"2023-02-14-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-02-14-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-02-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There have been many new names with strong opinions about us\/NATO\/USA\/Ukraine attacking Russia, preferably yesterday.
\nOf course, it would be Putin’s big dream to be able to claim war with NATO and get his world war.<\/p>\n

If that doesn’t happen, the next best thing is probably to discredit the blog, shoot the messenger \u2013 we are nothing but warmongering colonizers. The best thing to do is probably to ignore the comments until they are cleared out?<\/p>\n

Then some criticism of our government has appeared, after 50 CV90s and 12 Archers, which also feels a bit misplaced \u2013 you don’t have to go all in cuckoo? I think some comments are aimed at making us complain about that too?<\/p>\n

It is, in a way, big boy pants for the blog when someone thinks it\u2019s worth sacrificing resources to spread disinformation on the blog, but it\u2019s quite easy to disturb the high level, almost as easy as when someone manages to write about party politics \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I know this has been up before but it is significant, Putin says the naval infantry fights like lions.
\nEither he doesn\u2019t know or he\u2019s lying, but I almost think he looks unaware.<\/p>\n

To miss the mark so far as a head of state is, at least to me, spectacular.
\nBoth naval infantry brigades actually came from the Pacific fleet and he said the northern and Baltic fleet (right?).
\nIs there anyone in the whole world who doesn\u2019t know about the fiasco at Vuhledar?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/UkraineWarVideoReport\/comments\/110u6s1\/a_man_that_looks_like_putin_strangely_declares\/<\/a><\/p>\n

So when yesterday, late at last, they throw their hat in the ring regarding Bakhmut and that they should keep the city slightly unsettled so that the city would naturally be abandoned immediately \u2013 yes, then Ukraine goes and launches a counterattack in the area. Good timing and my contact in the Ukrainian command gives absolutely correct information, I must admit.<\/p>\n

The front staff announced yesterday that there is fighting in Krasna Hora but it has been confirmed taken by the murder snails?<\/p>\n

I interpreted it yesterday as this information being incorrect, the city was confirmed in murder snail hands. Could their definition of fighting vs. conquered be that they think they still have ongoing operations in the area and therefore it is not to be considered conquered?<\/p>\n

The only real threat to Bakhmut is if Berkhivka falls and if they can push the entire murder snail offensive that is dragging itself out from Krasna Hora and go west straight into the flank, it will probably collapse quite quickly.<\/p>\n

If you remember the discussion about Gregg, he wasn\u2019t very wrong, he still has my highest trust.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s completely crazy that UA is training on Leo2 now, soon in Ukraine ready to run over invading Russians and leave track marks on their backs.
\nThen we have the next round Rammstein where they basically only agree on logistics, the big brushstrokes are already clear.<\/p>\n

I wonder if anyone has information about the mine-clearing equipment that has been delivered?
\nI think it was for rapid clearing, meaning blowing up streets in the minefields that you drive straight through in connection with forward movement?<\/p>\n

Once you get past the minefields and have mapped them correctly, it goes quickly to roll over Russians in a hole.<\/p>\n

The Russian national team in unchallenged incompetence is probably starting to accelerate in northern Luhansk but it is far from an existential threat except maybe up north if they already round the Oskil river up there?<\/p>\n

VDV is apparently inside and getting lost in the forest area south of Kreminna and those Border Guards who hit an entire barracks the other night \u2013 exactly that is my picture of all northern Luhansk and the hornet\u2019s nest with SOF.<\/p>\n

The Russians have absolutely hated fighting in the forest so far, partly because they are afraid of the dark but also because their training simply isn\u2019t enough.<\/p>\n

Regarding combat value, Russian units in northern Luhansk have a pretty short distance until they reach zero.
\nIt\u2019s cold, wet, and SOF is running around.
\nIf they have pushed in the numbers we think living in the field Russian style, that means frozen and wet and on top of that they don\u2019t get food at the pace that would be needed.<\/p>\n

I have now zeroed out DPR units in Vuhledar as well, after a rush with drawn sabers over potato fields the losses must have been enormous.
\nThere are some motorized brigades left but then the joy ends there.
\nI have nothing confirmed but some must have taken the hit the other day and I\u2019m guessing it\u2019s them.<\/p>\n

Days go by \u2013 now it\u2019s February 14 and no 500,000 men storm screaming across the fields and no general mobilization declared in Russia.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s starting to feel a bit like Qanon this, everything was supposed to come and everything was always just a liiiittle time away and everyone forgets to look in the rearview mirror. In the end, I gave back my membership in the movement, completely bored that Podesta was never arrested.<\/p>\n

In the rearview mirror you see heaps of dead Russians and burning materiel and ahead you see 100m of potato field that they didn\u2019t even manage to get over because they got stuck in the first minefields.<\/p>\n

As is well known, I have had some doubts about this mythical offensive that has made the rounds in the media.<\/p>\n

Vuhledar looks done, Soledar is the murder snails\u2019 march and at Bakhmut there is a UA counterattack (according to today\u2019s blog update).<\/p>\n

The southern front is stone dead but surely there must be an attempt from there soon, the southern front is absolutely the main target along with northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

If they don\u2019t get going seriously in northern Luhansk soon, it\u2019s time to reassess up there as well, so far there has been less gas than I expected even though they are conducting attacks in Kreminna and up north.<\/p>\n

February 24 is a charged date and they started offensive operations January 6 in a very sneaky New Year\u2019s attack just as we thought they would do against Sweden. They now have 10 days to show something for their deceptive behavior.<\/p>\n

The next milestone is that the ground becomes impassable, to be able to make (what they think is) a difference the Russians must take terrain now.<\/p>\n

The idea I had with northern Luhansk was to advance on several wedges along the NS line through Svatove and try to reach the Oskil river.<\/p>\n

125,000 men become many attack wedges (Kupiansk, Borova, Senkove, Sadove) and with enough of them it would have been a bit tough for UA if at the same time they blew up all the bridges over the Oskil river \u2013 somewhere around there was my assessment of what I called \u201cmessy\u201d and have been a bit worried about.<\/p>\n

To date: up north they are not at Dvorichna yet, along the entire NS front they are probably there and sniffing at Zherebets in a couple of places and west of Kreminna they have gotten stuck in the forest area.<\/p>\n

More VDV regiments than one can count, 2 Spetznaz brigades, quite a few guards motorized\/tank regiments, and one of the endangered naval infantry up by Kupiansk.<\/p>\n

Absolutely stand by what we discussed on January 6 that this is the (relatively) best thing going now.<\/p>\n

Also stand by that there won\u2019t be any \u201c500,000\u201d men storming across the fields.<\/p>\n

What is starting to get interesting, however, is when Ukraine\u2019s offensive kicks off, will they manage anything before the frost thaws and the ground becomes impassable, or will they wait until spring when it dries up.<\/p>\n

Since everyone expects them to wait for Western armor before moving, it would be very Ukrainian to strike now on some front section if an opportunity opens up.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

You know what the worst thing is Hantala, the children are not adopted but sold in trafficking, evidence has come forward for that.<\/p>\n

Then these monstrous rapes of small children who are tortured and murdered by soldiers in Ukraine \u2013 it is definitely filmed for the market that pays well for such things.<\/p>\n

What you are upset about is the polished front of what is really going on.<\/p>\n

Yep, that the Red Cross and the UN are not screaming and completely crazy is very sad.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

The reason I believe this is because that\u2019s what they did in the Balkan war and now every Russian soldier has a phone available and it\u2019s easy money.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks! Good analysis!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Danke.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Regarding \u201cstriking on some front section\u201d I have also thought about that. I think it\u2019s too early for a real offensive but if they could break through somewhere, more like a feint to confuse the Russians (preferably just in time for the 21st) that would be really nice. Then if they would get real momentum in such an offensive (the Russians seem to have an easy time abandoning everything and running) then.. yeah why not.<\/p>\n

Also hoping they manage something over the Dnipro..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Something will definitely come and now that this has been posted Gregg comes with even more positive news so I immediately felt we could turn up the volume even more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If one is to guess what Ukraine is planning for the anniversary<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1625491866547363840?s=46&t=xHxkcW9DXJr5vWEyie5qzA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Someone should tell the steamroller drivers that they might as well go home, always sad to have to work completely in vain..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Bakhmut is just good news today \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/HeliosRunner\/status\/1625511147934830593?s=20&t=d5a-bm0VIGMgv_0hyrpqTA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Solovyov is seriously skating on thin ice. His two sons live in London and are apparently quite unmanly (no judgment on that) and this has been picked up by Girkin and is making the rounds, in Russia.<\/p>\n

This is after Solovyov said that Russian men should be grateful to die in Ukraine and that his sons had done much better than the fiasco in Vuhledar \u2013 or something like that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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