{"id":7597,"date":"2023-02-24T08:34:28","date_gmt":"2023-02-24T07:34:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-02-24-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:30:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:30:43","slug":"2023-02-24-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-02-24-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-02-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A year ago, it became clear that Russia had thrown itself at Ukraine, one of the bigger events in my life as I saw the possibility of escalation into a world war \u2013 the timing was right, the world had been heading that way for a while, and the side making a move was strong enough. There are a couple of events one never forgets and this is one of them.<\/p>\n

I got a sour-salty-sweet reaction already in the first days \u2013 the air landing at Hostomel filmed with mobile phones gave the feeling of how we imagined the Soviet Union going all out, but quite soon the feeling was reinforced that the artillery fire was highly sporadic and not Soviet doctrine at all \u2013 which signaled that it was not a well-executed three-day operation.<\/p>\n

Within a week, I think the calibration was done; before that, I believed that a well-managed defense of Ukraine would result in – only – all terrain east of the Dnipro going to Russia, that was my win scenario.<\/p>\n

I probably still believe that if they had focused on reaching all the crossings over the Dnipro instead of Kyiv, this would have looked different, but there are no consolation prizes in war.<\/p>\n

I usually write that the thread is the valve that ensures the pressure cooker does not explode. I have arranged my life so that I rarely talk about the UA war with others, or my opinion is known but I don\u2019t push it 24\/7 with a staring gaze and standing way too close to the person I\u2019m talking to and with more arms than words. It works when I get the energy out in the thread instead, so thanks to all the therapists in the thread and fun to be part of it.<\/p>\n

The anniversary starts excellently with China throwing Putin completely under the bus and we have almost reached the symbolic 150,000 dead and 10,000 hard vehicles put out of combat.<\/p>\n

Then we have today\u2019s blog writing that the UN finds its integrity and has passed a brilliant resolution \u2013 excellent.
\nAnd Orb\u00e1n who on the anniversary announces that Sweden and Finland shall be approved in NATO.<\/p>\n

Symbolism wherever you look today, Putin probably groaned quietly, turned to the wall, and fell asleep again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now I leave my attempts to show Russian numbers behind me for the simple reason that we have had an interview with Budanov where he has spoken frankly and confirmed the obvious.<\/p>\n

No one likes to read “I told you so” so I won\u2019t write that.<\/p>\n

However, I am a bit annoyed that this interview didn\u2019t come earlier because I have spent a lot of time trying to show with data\/facts something he says in two sentences.
\nhttps:\/\/wartranslated.com\/forbes-ua-interview-gurs-chief-kyrylo-budanov-interview\/<\/a><\/p>\n

This one was up from the Brits yesterday and is really exactly what we in the blog have tried to push for quite a while as reasons why the Russians are finished.
\nhttps:\/\/realcontextnews.com\/offensive-smensive-8-reasons-why-russias-expected-offensive-cannot-succeed\/<\/a><\/p>\n

I also leave behind the preaching that there will be no “wild offensive with 500,000 men across all fronts” for the simple reason that first, they didn\u2019t exist and then the mud season is now here until after the weekend on several fronts so they can\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The media that painted this big should absolutely go back and think about what they are really biting on after a whole year.
\nI think we learned that already after the mythical convoy at the start of the war?<\/p>\n

It is likely that northern Luhansk has not yet played out and that the Russian offensive continues up there, they have pushed in an astronomical amount of troops and materiel so it would be strange if they gave up before they got past the gate, I think.<\/p>\n

We have also learned that the ground is sandy and in the forests it doesn\u2019t get as muddy.<\/p>\n

What they come up with is, however, uninteresting \u2013 to die in an attack or to die by SOF in the dark night when the image intensifier has gone out is the same.<\/p>\n

Then the next big question to ponder \u2013 why don\u2019t the Russians mobilize when they obviously don\u2019t have the numbers?
\nMy belief is that they know they can\u2019t.<\/p>\n

– One reason is certainly that a million Russians with weapons is a bigger threat to the ruling elite in Russia than it is to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

– A second is that they simply don\u2019t have equipment for them.<\/p>\n

– A third is that the army on the ground has no use for them, they have chaos and problems anyway with what they have. They can\u2019t get enough ammunition and food anyway so why add a million more mouths to that \u2013 it won\u2019t work.<\/p>\n

The only thing that could prolong the war is some million men in well-built defense systems and cities with near-PV, mines, PV rockets, and everything else needed to slow down the Ukrainian offensive as much as possible until it stops and opinion turns in the country.<\/p>\n

– A sufficiently large mobilization will not happen, probability 1 that it won\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n

And further to the obvious \u2013 why does China\u2019s peace envoy come after the Russian version of “all in” do we think?
\nIs it because the Russians can “drag out the war for several years, wear down Ukraine and Ukraine cannot win”?<\/p>\n

Then they would have done that instead, I think, why go through all the hassle with an offensive in the middle of winter and China has to try to navigate a difficult landscape if it wasn\u2019t needed \u2013 the easiest would have been to go on defense behind their own artillery umbrella?<\/p>\n

(which I believed before January 6 and I have jumped up and down since then).<\/p>\n

All the puzzle pieces fit here \u2013 already on January 6 we wrote that it was positioning ahead of negotiations and now comes China\u2019s attempt.<\/p>\n

But what an attempt \u2013 they just threw Putin under a very big bus here and really only care about future trade with the country.<\/p>\n

Then it is probably very sad for everyone that Ukraine crashes the party together with the Russian army that can\u2019t drive straight on the road and starts fighting with itself if they are within two kilometers of each other.<\/p>\n

The coffee-drinking Ukrainian who sat and listened to Russian units fighting each other for several hours was absolutely hysterically funny.<\/p>\n

An important puzzle piece was Putin\u2019s completely absent speech, the Ukraine war begins to be consigned to yesterday one got a distinct feeling of and they are preparing the population to look forward.<\/p>\n

The last was probably that China found the biggest bus they could find \u2013 “respect national sovereignty” \u2013 and rolled Putin under it before Xi drove it back and forth a few times.<\/p>\n

– Russian aggression in Ukraine is approaching its end date, also probability 1 on that.<\/p>\n

Moldova seems to be moving towards a solution \u2013 UA supports them militarily. It is diplomatically and politically smart because they are already at war with Russia. If the government resigned, however, the question is which representatives of the country can invite Ukraine to help them?<\/p>\n

The same will probably happen with Belarus, all Belarusian units go home and fight with the help of “Ukrainian volunteers.” We will never get a better chance to straighten out the border with Russia and the West can wash its hands completely.<\/p>\n

One should be very clear that both operations are carried out with the West’s full permission even when the Russian narrative becomes that Ukraine power-tripped and attacks everything and everyone.<\/p>\n

We know that Russian newly mobilized troops are just sent down to the front with some magazine and then dropped off in a forest without communication to higher command or food \u2013 there were lots of videos all autumn of these excuses for units.<\/p>\n

I present NG training, new weapons, new uniform, fresh everything.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1628709618632327169?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Then Gregg has announced that they start in line 2, then 1, to finally fight in the zero line on the active front.
\nThat means that UA does not take unnecessary losses and that the units’ competence\/combat value is maintained and increased.<\/p>\n

The difference compared to Russian capability like Vuhledar both with armor and then with drawn saber and screaming is almost insurmountable.<\/p>\n

I had locked myself on the numbers until Budanov clarified the concept for us but now we can also consider capability.<\/p>\n

We KNOW how the Russians attack, we have seen enough examples of both mech and just shooting that get their training.
\nWe do not yet know if UA fully masters Western doctrine but I would like to say that we have enough evidence that they can capture defensive positions with minimal losses.<\/p>\n

THAT is difficult if anything.
\nIn conscription, everyone probably remembers how the field looked after a mech failure \u2013 orange juice mixers everywhere.<\/p>\n

If you took the attack objective, the battalion was finished and the reserve major doing his refresher course just smelled of anxiety, was all shiny on the forehead and avoided looking anyone in the eyes.<\/p>\n

You started an attack to the best of your ability and according to training and hoped for the best. Ukraine attacks and knows they will succeed \u2013 that’s how good they are.<\/p>\n

I don’t remember if this was something I heard or something that happened during our larger exercises but during orders to A and B force, the order was that you could not cross the demarcation line on the map before 06:00, then the day’s battles started and may the best man win.<\/p>\n

B force went up at 02:00, crossed the demarcation line at 06:01 and thundered into A force’s billets at 06:30 just as they got up and were brushing their teeth and at 07:00 the day’s exercise was over.<\/p>\n

The battalion commander of A force was completely furious \u2013 at least cheating, mostly high treason and the B force commander shrugged and said “I won, nerd” with a poorly hidden grin.<\/p>\n

-that’s kind of how I think Ukraine fights every day.<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s capability we have not yet seen fully played out and it will be even better than we think. They have taken NATO doctrine and improved NATO doctrine.<\/p>\n

Then we have the whole collective concept SOF \u2013 those guys are competence with fins and a big threat to the Russians.
\nA bit like in the Winter War where the ski patrols were what everyone took with them (and that was far from everything) so it will probably be something similar with SOF when history is eventually written.<\/p>\n

Especially up in northern Luhansk it will probably become a Winter War legend, or Suomussalmi 2.0 it would be.<\/p>\n

Quite a few are wondering if the mines will make UA’s offensive difficult when it sweeps over tired and wet Russians in a hole with a small bait can and only the bottom dregs left.<\/p>\n

The Russians lay mines in lines, earlier they had one line but now they have probably started with their version of defense in depth.
\nFor the exercise, it will be three mine lines on which they have put enormous work to lay.<\/p>\n

We know that UA has received \u2013 “mine clearing equipment” which I interpret as “mine worm” that explodes.
\nThey have mine rollers themselves and have received mine plows.
\nThey have also received bridging equipment.<\/p>\n

If you took the time to watch the KOS film about NATO doctrine breach you quickly understood that was all that was needed.
\nUA therefore needs to make two lanes per mine line, a total of six lanes with the equipment. Then they have passed a whole Russian minefield for one front and there is mined ground behind.<\/p>\n

There has been some writing about preparing defense in larger cities but breaking through a front is so simple.<\/p>\n

After that, all defense systems and mining are obsolete \u2013 Lex the French.<\/p>\n

Here you have Biden, what a hero, pity you can’t read his handwriting, but I thought I saw a fck Putin?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/POTUS\/status\/1627680706909331460?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

I will not back down from my end date\/end season but when you add everything up here I start to wonder if the bubble \u2013 planned retreat from Ukraine \u2013 has a high probability.<\/p>\n

The offensive is already catastrophically failed and China has just thrown Putin under a very big bus and UA continues killing Russians as fast as they can.<\/p>\n

Then the Russians know that Ukraine’s spring offensive is fully resourced if they google, and with minimal imagination they can figure out how this will end \u2013 knockout a few seconds into the first round.<\/p>\n

After a month of GLDSB maybe at the end of March they accept the accomplished fact and leave all of Ukraine entirely voluntarily?<\/p>\n

Better than the army going completely to zero and still controlling the narrative at home than getting beaten in front of an open drone camera at prime time?<\/p>\n

You can then come up with any super lie and go on enriching yourselves and oppressing the country. Putin has got an out and everyone is happy?<\/p>\n

“out of care for the Ukrainian children and for peace in our time” I think can become a reason for leaving.<\/p>\n

You must not speculate on outcomes from the bubbles, those are the rules unfortunately which is a bit sad \u2013 but it is at the top now and rising on the bubble list.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 <\/p>\n

There is a lot of talk that most of the world’s population does not support Ukraine but the vote in the UN still shows massive support!<\/p>\n

Don’t really see that China has thrown Putin under the bus, but I hope your interpretation is right!<\/p>\n

Regardless, the situation going forward feels significantly more positive now than a year ago.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:14 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I guess I have to say this to you “What did Johan No.1 say?”!!<\/p>\n

I think the Russians are quite cunning anyway. They confuse everyone by conducting a mediocre offensive to trick everyone into thinking it hasn’t started yet. The Russian trolls probably claim it is a secret offensive, in reality they have already surrounded Kyiv and are ready to take the capital.<\/p>\n

I lean back and await Russia’s total defeat.<\/p>\n

Thanks Johan, I think I’ll stop reading anyone else’s analyses from now on.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Regarding China throwing Russia under the bus, I have not had the most positive glasses on but just read the summary posted in yesterday’s thread this morning \u2013 <\/p>\n

-China has written in its peace proposal that “internationally recognized borders shall be respected”. That means Russia must leave Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as well as Crimea.
\nThat text cannot be interpreted any other way.<\/p>\n

Then there is fluff and finally they consider that the sanctions should be lifted. It’s just so they can do business with Russia.<\/p>\n

The central point is that Russia must leave Ukraine, that’s 99%. The whole purpose of the invasion was to try to legitimize that they could take over territory, preferably the whole country, okay with Donbass + Crimea but definitely Crimea.<\/p>\n

Now no other country in the whole world supports that plan except North Korea and Mali.<\/p>\n

Then that China abstained from voting in the UN is also important.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Writing here instead of in four places in the thread.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for the clarification. Missed that they abstained in the UN, that adds a bit more weight to it. Admittedly a small “action” but still something that reinforces what they say.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Alright MRF \u2013 so I read literally and you interpret meanings that are not written out and then you are right because you are China-savvy or because you often eat Asian buffet \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now the comments that have made the rounds in the media have generally called it watered down and without substance, or similar.<\/p>\n

What they should have written \u2013
\n-Crimea, or Donetsk\/Luhansk shall become demilitarized zones\/autonomous regions.
\n-Immediate ceasefire and frozen situation until the UN can mediate.
\n-if the West continues to deliver weapons, we will start doing so as well.<\/p>\n

They also should not have abstained in the UN but voted against.<\/p>\n

The practical meaning of what you write is that China will do nothing in the coming months, right \u2013 can we agree so far or do you see a risk that China does something that benefits Russia that changes something in practice?<\/p>\n

Then the consensus is probably not 100% on this but what I think will happen in the coming months is that Russia continues to lose and Ukraine continues to win and retakes its country?<\/p>\n

And then the war is over.<\/p>\n

Then you actually miss a detail here in your interpretation of China’s peace plan \u2013 that China previously said that Donbass and Crimea belong to Ukraine, they announced that already in January.<\/p>\n

So when they write that borders shall be respected, the most likely, if you go by previous statements, is that they actually mean what they write.<\/p>\n

Now that statement is drowned out by this from today so I can’t find it but when it happened we discussed it in the thread.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

That said MRF \u2013 China wants trade with Russia as soon as the war is over so quite right that they are trying to get a soft landing for Russia here.<\/p>\n

But they have not thrown down the white glove in front of the free West when it comes to UA giving up land.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Answered about China below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I’m thinking like this \u2013 what can make a difference.
\nThey have probably been sending ammunition all the time and it’s going badly anyway.
\nChinese MBT or IFV we will never see because Russians won’t learn Chinese in a few months.<\/p>\n

100 drones are also irrelevant in this context.<\/p>\n

Their ONLY card to play is to freeze the conflict or get UA to give up land but they have not played that.<\/p>\n

After this peace proposal I am quite relieved.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

You have figured out when in the month the Russians attack and then there is something you or KrokJon said in the spring that is approaching but I don’t remember what it was offhand but it\u2019s nagging in the back of my mind, it will probably come.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
11:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Asian buffet I thought was a bit funny and added a funny yellow face to set the tone and hope it was taken the right way.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

One addition here \u2013 we have seen Russia’s Potemkin facade fall quite hard.<\/p>\n

At least I think I see tendencies to tackle the China issue the same way \u2013 they are a huge, huge threat and must be handled with care.<\/p>\n

Have read in the media that “China is trying to drain NATO resources in Ukraine, perfect for them”, how many of the 12(?) aircraft carrier groups are in Ukraine and fighting?<\/p>\n

USA’s superiority in everything is devastating and if Ukraine could completely on its own control Russia then it is probably reasonable to assume that NATO, if needed, can control China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

We have agreed not to mock \u2013 height, appearance, sexual orientation and other disabilities which I think is very good. In the beginning Putin’s height was often brought up for example.<\/p>\n

When I have read the thread the last few days I am however starting to get a bit worried that we are going too hard on the group with uneven stools and incontinence in our mocking of Putin?<\/p>\n

Or am I going too far in my worry here?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Apologize enormously for the word disability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

(Seriously)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Now I get even more worried before I aired my concern, it would have been better to keep it to myself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:29 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

This is going well!
\nSee that you managed to shoot yourself in the foot without help from ELDERTHE or me \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n

You don’t need to worry, no one thinks it was ill-intended!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Tonight it will be full for Ukraine’s sake (TM Bitterpitten) and damn there were a lot of comments in the thread to go through, started replying\/writing high up before I realized that everyone is hanging down here now and having fun \u2013 great atmosphere in the thread.<\/p>\n

I feel that I opened the day reasonably with some posts that have been proofread, then I slipped into a minefield with China to finally completely capsize in an attempt to on the fly tackle threats and hate.<\/p>\n

Now a couple of Czech beers in the interlude have slipped down, they look the same as Norrlands Guld so my much better half didn\u2019t understand that I upgraded completely on my own initiative and then we have dip and reasonably priced chips \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

I leave previous discussions and above all I have great clarity in my weak areas and will draw a red line in front of the non-topics, managing to offend everyone except 47-year-old men from Uppsala is almost a record.<\/p>\n

Got goosebumps from Gregg’s post and there haven’t been a lack of goosebump moments today on Twitter, we rejoice that Ukraine after a year stands firm and steps on the gas \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Very interesting that there were no direct New Year’s rockets on the 24th, wild attacks did not occur, carpet bombings did not occur and hateful rhetoric did not occur (except from me then…).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sevastopol \u270a\u270a<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1629153807601963009?s=46&t=ANL5n7vRPAGdbRrV7W8E_w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Thanks for it not becoming today’s grumpiest discussion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Russians know what is being delivered and three weeks is a long time but seagull\/gull\/shag usually applies in the thread, some fishing has been done for information.<\/p>\n

Stand firm in my belief that they will beta test some Western armor at the front quite soon.<\/p>\n

And we have guessed that they have already sent some.<\/p>\n

Welcome oma \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Above all, they know when\/where globemasters fly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

May they bring death to Russians in the pit \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
19:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

It will be the second time surprised children see their father in tears, the first time was when they swept the entire dip bowl onto the floor after the grocery store closed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
19:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

You contributed to many ticks up on the positivity meter Oma \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:16 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Ah, now you are too hard on yourself. No one was seriously upset..
\nEnjoy the evening instead!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

No, here it’s a full toddler-parent party \u2013 movie, beer and chips \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Rishi Sunak rules<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/rishisunak\/status\/1629087380031373312?s=46&t=ANL5n7vRPAGdbRrV7W8E_w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Go Germany<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1629200769827102721?s=46&t=ANL5n7vRPAGdbRrV7W8E_w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Feel the 30mm<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1629088060041199617?s=46&t=ANL5n7vRPAGdbRrV7W8E_w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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