{"id":7655,"date":"2023-03-04T08:36:44","date_gmt":"2023-03-04T07:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-03-04-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T14:42:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:42:05","slug":"2023-03-04-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-03-04-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-03-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now there is movement at one more place up in northern Luhansk, Chernovopopivka (however it is spelled) which is north of Kreminna. How is that possible?<\/p>\n

SpongeBob, the general he is, suspected yesterday that the Russian team had pulled a lot from northern Luhansk.
\nI have heard of 6-7 brigades being moved south, no more.<\/p>\n

There were fairly consistent sources saying that it was 130,000 men and 1,000 tanks that were brought into northern Luhansk ahead of the winter offensive. Of course, it could be that everyone had the same source but Defmon has a forest of unit designations up there.<\/p>\n

If much of that had been moved south, we would probably have heard about it, we know everything that is brought into Vuhledar, through Mariupol and into Bakhmut and so on. Defmon is admittedly a bit behind regarding Bakhmut (because he doesn\u2019t change Twitter rumors like I do, which is very sensible) but if there had been large troop movements from northern Luhansk, it should reasonably have been picked up among the OSINT folks as well?<\/p>\n

There are probably a few scratching their heads right now wondering what on earth is going on, first the Kreminna forests and now this locality.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not much of a Russian offensive, but Ukraine is pushing forward among 1,000 tanks and 130,000 soldiers.
\nAccording to earlier reports, the soils up there are sandier and in the forests it doesn\u2019t get so muddy and the cold lasts a bit longer.
\nProbably it will be continuous fighting up there without interruption.<\/p>\n

According to earlier guesses, I think that is where they will beta test Western armor very soon, everything seems to be deployed.<\/p>\n

I had imagined Suomussalmi 2.0 and they obviously have their swarm of hornets with SOF topped with SBU\/GUR (that\u2019s what I got the impression of) but surely weather and SOF can\u2019t totally crash the Russian offensive so quickly and also reduce combat effectiveness so much that they can\u2019t defend?<\/p>\n

Or does it work as well as hoped \u2013 as soon as they became stationary they turned into victims at night because they don\u2019t have night vision?<\/p>\n

If it turns out that the Russians have weakened up in northern Luhansk, it would be a blockbuster sensation on an atomic bomb scale and SpongeBob would get a job as a general in any staff he wants.<\/p>\n

That would mean they haven\u2019t had enough on other fronts because they have shown great willingness to defend northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

We know they have about 30,000 behind the southern front (the number has been floating around quite a bit), a whole bunch of brigades at Vuhledar, a few dozen at Bakhmut and quite a high density of 1st and 2nd Army Corps around the geographical Donetsk area (we don\u2019t know their condition).<\/p>\n

There is also an offensive reserve at the northern front but it is in the order of 10,000.<\/p>\n

UA is now up at the NS line through Svatove, then they have the NS line through Starobilsk and then the VE line in the city of the Luhansk area \u2013 even if it were evenly distributed there should be 50,000 Russians in the area they are now pressing on and it is the Russian elite crawling around in the trenches \u2013 something is not right.<\/p>\n

No matter how I twist and turn the maps, it is quite important that Ukraine retakes northern Luhansk before the Russians (if they can, which they cannot!) mobilize a million and push them out into the defense systems in spring when the weather is good \u2013 then the war will be prolonged by the time it takes to run over a million Russians in trenches.<\/p>\n

– there should not be a day of peace in northern Luhansk for Russians in trenches throughout March and April.<\/p>\n

Are you waiting like me for the Russians to attack at the southern front?
\nIt can only end one way and then they are basically ready to be overrun down there.<\/p>\n

Yesterday I thought it became clear from the Cossack and the accent man that Bakhmut is a huge flytrap and that it works.<\/p>\n

The accent man also guesses a delaying battle through the city as I do and it will cost many VDV and Spetsnaz to take those houses.<\/p>\n

It is now infantry on foot storming defense systems which have also been reinforced with IFVs and MBTs and where Ukraine uses all indirect fire they can against them \u2013 slaughter is probably a more fitting word than Russian offensive here.<\/p>\n

It is brilliant warfare from Ukraine and I don\u2019t understand why recognized pro-Ukrainian sources started screaming that Ukraine would retreat from Bakhmut, even legends like Defmon took that position which was very unexpected.<\/p>\n

I know it sounds bad but being able to take out VDV and Spetsnaz as they crawl across the fields rather than when they have gone into prepared defense with PV missiles and when PV is not so bad.<\/p>\n

Now there are more and more tweets about volunteer units being brought into Bakhmut \u2013 remember Severodonetsk, they pulled out the regular army units when it became urban fighting and brought in the units that mastered that kind of warfare best.<\/p>\n

That together with holding the flanks makes it quite clear that they are planning a delaying battle through the city to huge Russian losses.<\/p>\n

In Severodonetsk they used to come back at night and clear what they had abandoned during the day.<\/p>\n

Then I get the distinct feeling that Ukraine is in full control here over the entire front.<\/p>\n

The concern is spreading even among pro-Ukrainian debaters now but all I really see is that Ukraine is taking one step at a time, albeit sometimes costly steps, and that the Russians cannot counter it at all.<\/p>\n

I wonder if this is a very successful Russian psyops \u2013 if we take the discussion about Bakhmut, many now warn that pro-Russians are trying to scare the civilian population so they will put pressure on politics to abandon Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Someone wrote in the thread that Gregg got a lot of criticism for \u201csacrificing lives\u201d in Bakhmut for example. Then ammunition shortage, weakened army, UA \u201cis about to lose\u201d and all that has been going around.<\/p>\n

Before that it was \u201coffensive with 500,000\u201d on the table and now the \u201chuge Russian spring offensive\u201d is dangled in front of us like a big dark cloud.<\/p>\n

I think it is very clear how rigid the Russian organization is and that everything starts with a bit of shouting from Putin at a meeting and then the generals do everything between something and the best they can.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has a well-developed strategy that is built on and changed according to the situation and they are lightning fast at exploiting openings. I have high confidence in their ability and have yet to see anything that will prevent them from achieving the goal of liberating their country and it should go fast when they press start.<\/p>\n

Another concern that is spreading is how the Russian defense systems will paralyze Ukraine in their offensive, I have tried to describe my view of how it will go a couple of times and below is another who I think has a similar opinion.<\/p>\n

All materiel has been delivered and they have improved the US doctrine for breach with drones, air brigades and real-time information \u2013 all this has been tested and we have seen videos of it all.<\/p>\n

Now it will only happen during a larger coordinated offensive with a breakthrough along the entire front, which of course will go brilliantly like everything else Ukraine undertakes.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1631872791526907906?s=46&t=q5lGrpfZ5EqOnTrTDBXjjw<\/a><\/p>\n

Then credit is due \u2013 Germany has taken the lead here in driving support for Ukraine and it is very nice to see. Fun to be Van right now \ud83d\ude00 Go Team Scholz \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Thread about what is supposed to win the war for the Russians \u2013 T62<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1631896543300050944?s=46&t=uRhouDijWkJ9aBI1gMMhbw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Then, since we are on the subject, at the bottom shelf in the back of the storage we have that train the other day with everything except sensible equipment.<\/p>\n

Someone wrote BRDM and they were probably older as well?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m thinking that one might as well be left out of sending to the front, half-life of a few minutes.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1631688158751358985?s=46&t=uRhouDijWkJ9aBI1gMMhbw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

It will be nice to see when they become easy prey for leopards on the hunt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:29 \u2013 Johan No.1 Now there is movement at one more place up in northern Luhansk, Chernovopopivka (however it is 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